• Title/Summary/Keyword: ensemble machine learning

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Development of an Ensemble-Based Multi-Region Integrated Odor Concentration Prediction Model (앙상블 기반의 악취 농도 다지역 통합 예측 모델 개발)

  • Seong-Ju Cho;Woo-seok Choi;Sang-hyun Choi
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.383-400
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    • 2023
  • Air pollution-related diseases are escalating worldwide, with the World Health Organization (WHO) estimating approximately 7 million annual deaths in 2022. The rapid expansion of industrial facilities, increased emissions from various sources, and uncontrolled release of odorous substances have brought air pollution to the forefront of societal concerns. In South Korea, odor is categorized as an independent environmental pollutant, alongside air and water pollution, directly impacting the health of local residents by causing discomfort and aversion. However, the current odor management system in Korea remains inadequate, necessitating improvements. This study aims to enhance the odor management system by analyzing 1,010,749 data points collected from odor sensors located in Osong, Chungcheongbuk-do, using an Ensemble-Based Multi-Region Integrated Odor Concentration Prediction Model. The research results demonstrate that the model based on the XGBoost algorithm exhibited superior performance, with an RMSE of 0.0096, significantly outperforming the single-region model (0.0146) with a 51.9% reduction in mean error size. This underscores the potential for increasing data volume, improving accuracy, and enabling odor prediction in diverse regions using a unified model through the standardization of odor concentration data collected from various regions.

A Study on the Prediction Models of Used Car Prices Using Ensemble Model And SHAP Value: Focus on Feature of the Vehicle Type (앙상블 모델과 SHAP Value를 활용한 국내 중고차 가격 예측 모델에 관한 연구: 차종 특성을 중심으로)

  • Seungjun Yim;Joungho Lee;Choonho Ryu
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 2024
  • The market share of online platform services in the used car market continues to expand. And The used car online platform service provides service users with specifications of vehicles, accident history, inspection details, detailed options, and prices of used cars. SUV vehicle type's share in the domestic automobile market will be more than 50% in 2023, Sales of Hybrid vehicle type are doubled compared to last year. And these vehicle types are also gaining popularity in the used car market. Prior research has proposed a used car price prediction model by executing a Machine Learning model for all vehicles or vehicles by brand. On the other hand, the popularity of SUV and Hybrid vehicles in the domestic market continues to rise, but It was difficult to find a study that proposed a used car price prediction model for these vehicle type. This study selects a used car price prediction model by vehicle type using vehicle specifications and options for Sedans, SUV, and Hybrid vehicles produced by domestic brands. Accordingly, after selecting feature through the Lasso regression model, which is a feature selection, the ensemble model was sequentially executed with the same sampling, and the best model by vehicle type was selected. As a result, the best model for all models was selected as the CBR model, and the contribution and direction of the features were confirmed by visualizing Tree SHAP Value for the best model for each model. The implications of this study are expected to propose a used car price prediction model by vehicle type to sales officials using online platform services, confirm the attribution and direction of features, and help solve problems caused by asymmetry fo information between them.

A Best Effort Classification Model For Sars-Cov-2 Carriers Using Random Forest

  • Mallick, Shrabani;Verma, Ashish Kumar;Kushwaha, Dharmender Singh
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.27-33
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    • 2021
  • The whole world now is dealing with Coronavirus, and it has turned to be one of the most widespread and long-lived pandemics of our times. Reports reveal that the infectious disease has taken toll of the almost 80% of the world's population. Amidst a lot of research going on with regards to the prediction on growth and transmission through Symptomatic carriers of the virus, it can't be ignored that pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers also play a crucial role in spreading the reach of the virus. Classification Algorithm has been widely used to classify different types of COVID-19 carriers ranging from simple feature-based classification to Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). This research paper aims to present a novel technique using a Random Forest Machine learning algorithm with hyper-parameter tuning to classify different types COVID-19-carriers such that these carriers can be accurately characterized and hence dealt timely to contain the spread of the virus. The main idea for selecting Random Forest is that it works on the powerful concept of "the wisdom of crowd" which produces ensemble prediction. The results are quite convincing and the model records an accuracy score of 99.72 %. The results have been compared with the same dataset being subjected to K-Nearest Neighbour, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), and Decision Tree algorithms where the accuracy score has been recorded as 78.58%, 70.11%, 70.385,99% respectively, thus establishing the concreteness and suitability of our approach.

Using Bayesian tree-based model integrated with genetic algorithm for streamflow forecasting in an urban basin

  • Nguyen, Duc Hai;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.140-140
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    • 2021
  • Urban flood management is a crucial and challenging task, particularly in developed cities. Therefore, accurate prediction of urban flooding under heavy precipitation is critically important to address such a challenge. In recent years, machine learning techniques have received considerable attention for their strong learning ability and suitability for modeling complex and nonlinear hydrological processes. Moreover, a survey of the published literature finds that hybrid computational intelligent methods using nature-inspired algorithms have been increasingly employed to predict or simulate the streamflow with high reliability. The present study is aimed to propose a novel approach, an ensemble tree, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) model incorporating a nature-inspired algorithm to predict hourly multi-step ahead streamflow. For this reason, a hybrid intelligent model was developed, namely GA-BART, containing BART model integrating with Genetic algorithm (GA). The Jungrang urban basin located in Seoul, South Korea, was selected as a case study for the purpose. A database was established based on 39 heavy rainfall events during 2003 and 2020 that collected from the rain gauges and monitoring stations system in the basin. For the goal of this study, the different step ahead models will be developed based in the methods, including 1-hour, 2-hour, 3-hour, 4-hour, 5-hour, and 6-hour step ahead streamflow predictions. In addition, the comparison of the hybrid BART model with a baseline model such as super vector regression models is examined in this study. It is expected that the hybrid BART model has a robust performance and can be an optional choice in streamflow forecasting for urban basins.

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Monitoring Ground-level SO2 Concentrations Based on a Stacking Ensemble Approach Using Satellite Data and Numerical Models (위성 자료와 수치모델 자료를 활용한 스태킹 앙상블 기반 SO2 지상농도 추정)

  • Choi, Hyunyoung;Kang, Yoojin;Im, Jungho;Shin, Minso;Park, Seohui;Kim, Sang-Min
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1053-1066
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    • 2020
  • Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is primarily released through industrial, residential, and transportation activities, and creates secondary air pollutants through chemical reactions in the atmosphere. Long-term exposure to SO2 can result in a negative effect on the human body causing respiratory or cardiovascular disease, which makes the effective and continuous monitoring of SO2 crucial. In South Korea, SO2 monitoring at ground stations has been performed, but this does not provide spatially continuous information of SO2 concentrations. Thus, this research estimated spatially continuous ground-level SO2 concentrations at 1 km resolution over South Korea through the synergistic use of satellite data and numerical models. A stacking ensemble approach, fusing multiple machine learning algorithms at two levels (i.e., base and meta), was adopted for ground-level SO2 estimation using data from January 2015 to April 2019. Random forest and extreme gradient boosting were used as based models and multiple linear regression was adopted for the meta-model. The cross-validation results showed that the meta-model produced the improved performance by 25% compared to the base models, resulting in the correlation coefficient of 0.48 and root-mean-square-error of 0.0032 ppm. In addition, the temporal transferability of the approach was evaluated for one-year data which were not used in the model development. The spatial distribution of ground-level SO2 concentrations based on the proposed model agreed with the general seasonality of SO2 and the temporal patterns of emission sources.

Doubly-robust Q-estimation in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates (고차원 관측자료에서의 Q-학습 모형에 대한 이중강건성 연구)

  • Lee, Hyobeen;Kim, Yeji;Cho, Hyungjun;Choi, Sangbum
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.309-327
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    • 2021
  • Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are decision-making rules designed to provide personalized treatment to individuals in multi-stage randomized trials. Unlike classical methods, in which all individuals are prescribed the same type of treatment, DTRs prescribe patient-tailored treatments which take into account individual characteristics that may change over time. The Q-learning method, one of regression-based algorithms to figure out optimal treatment rules, becomes more popular as it can be easily implemented. However, the performance of the Q-learning algorithm heavily relies on the correct specification of the Q-function for response, especially in observational studies. In this article, we examine a number of double-robust weighted least-squares estimating methods for Q-learning in high-dimensional settings, where treatment models for propensity score and penalization for sparse estimation are also investigated. We further consider flexible ensemble machine learning methods for the treatment model to achieve double-robustness, so that optimal decision rule can be correctly estimated as long as at least one of the outcome model or treatment model is correct. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed methods work well with practical sample sizes. The practical utility of the proposed methods is proven with real data example.

A Study on Method for User Gender Prediction Using Multi-Modal Smart Device Log Data (스마트 기기의 멀티 모달 로그 데이터를 이용한 사용자 성별 예측 기법 연구)

  • Kim, Yoonjung;Choi, Yerim;Kim, Solee;Park, Kyuyon;Park, Jonghun
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.147-163
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    • 2016
  • Gender information of a smart device user is essential to provide personalized services, and multi-modal data obtained from the device is useful for predicting the gender of the user. However, the method for utilizing each of the multi-modal data for gender prediction differs according to the characteristics of the data. Therefore, in this study, an ensemble method for predicting the gender of a smart device user by using three classifiers that have text, application, and acceleration data as inputs, respectively, is proposed. To alleviate privacy issues that occur when text data generated in a smart device are sent outside, a classification method which scans smart device text data only on the device and classifies the gender of the user by matching text data with predefined sets of word. An application based classifier assigns gender labels to executed applications and predicts gender of the user by comparing the label ratio. Acceleration data is used with Support Vector Machine to classify user gender. The proposed method was evaluated by using the actual smart device log data collected from an Android application. The experimental results showed that the proposed method outperformed the compared methods.

Study of Static Analysis and Ensemble-Based Linux Malware Classification (정적 분석과 앙상블 기반의 리눅스 악성코드 분류 연구)

  • Hwang, Jun-ho;Lee, Tae-jin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.1327-1337
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    • 2019
  • With the growth of the IoT market, malware security threats are steadily increasing for devices that use the linux architecture. However, except for the major malware causing serious security damage such as Mirai, there is no related technology or research of security community about linux malware. In addition, the diversity of devices, vendors, and architectures in the IoT environment is further intensifying, and the difficulty in handling linux malware is also increasing. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an analysis system based on ELF which is the main format of linux architecture, and a binary based analysis system considering IoT environment. The ELF-based analysis system can be pre-classified for a large number of malicious codes at a relatively high speed and a relatively low-speed binary-based analysis system can classify all the data that are not preprocessed. These two processes are supposed to complement each other and effectively classify linux-based malware.

Age Prediction based on the Transcriptome of Human Dermal Fibroblasts through Interval Selection (피부섬유모세포 전사체 정보를 활용한 구간 선택 기반 연령 예측)

  • Seok, Ho-Sik
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.494-499
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    • 2022
  • It is reported that genome-wide RNA-seq profiles has potential as biomarkers of aging. A number of researches achieved promising prediction performance based on gene expression profiles. We develop an age prediction method based on the transcriptome of human dermal fibroblasts by selecting a proper age interval. The proposed method executes multiple rules in a sequential manner and a rule utilizes a classifier and a regression model to determine whether a given test sample belongs to the target age interval of the rule. If a given test sample satisfies the selection condition of a rule, age is predicted from the associated target age interval. Our method predicts age to a mean absolute error of 5.7 years. Our method outperforms prior best performance of mean absolute error of 7.7 years achieved by an ensemble based prediction method. We observe that it is possible to predict age based on genome-wide RNA-seq profiles but prediction performance is not stable but varying with age.

Dam Inflow Prediction and Evaluation Using Hybrid Auto-sklearn Ensemble Model (하이브리드 Auto-sklearn 앙상블 모델을 이용한 댐 유입량 예측 및 평가)

  • Lee, Seoro;Bae, Joo Hyun;Lee, Gwanjae;Yang, Dongseok;Hong, Jiyeong;Kim, Jonggun;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.307-307
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    • 2022
  • 최근 기후변화와 댐 상류 토지이용 변화 등과 같은 다양한 원인에 의해 댐 유입량의 변동성이 증가하면서 댐 관리 및 운영조작 의사 결정에 어려움이 발생하고 있다. 따라서 이러한 댐 유입량의 변동 특성을 반영하여 댐 유입량을 정확하고 효율적으로 예측할 수 있는 방안이 필요한 실정이다. 머신러닝 기술이 발전하면서 Auto-ML(Automated Machine Learning)이 다양한 분야에서 활용되고 있다. Auto-ML은 데이터 전처리, 최적 알고리즘 선택, 하이퍼파라미터 튜닝, 모델 학습 및 평가 등의 모든 과정을 자동화하는 기술이다. 그러나 아직까지 수문 분야에서 댐 유입량을 예측하기 위한 모델을 개발하는데 있어서 Auto-ML을 활용한 사례는 부족하고, 특히 댐 유입량의 예측 정확성을 확보하기 위해 High-inflow and low-inflow 의 변동 특성을 고려한 하이브리드 결합 방식을 통해 Auto-ML 기반 앙상블 모델을 개발하고 평가한 연구는 없다. 본 연구에서는 Auto-ML의 패키지 중 Auto-sklearn을 통해 홍수기, 비홍수기 유입량 변동 특성을 반영한 하이브리드 앙상블 댐 유입량 예측 모델을 개발하였다. 소양강댐을 대상으로 적용한 결과, 하이브리드 Auto-sklearn 앙상블 모델의 댐 유입량 예측 성능은 R2 0.868, RMSE 66.23 m3/s, MAE 16.45 m3/s로 단일 Auto-sklearn을 통해 구축 된 앙상블 모델보다 전반적으로 우수한 것으로 나타났다. 특히 FDC (Flow Duration Curve)의 저수기, 갈수기 구간에서 두 모델의 유입량 예측 경향은 큰 차이를 보였으며, 하이브리드 Auto-sklearn 모델의 예측 값이 관측 값과 더욱 유사한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 홍수기, 비홍수기 구간에 대한 앙상블 모델이 독립적으로 구축되는 과정에서 각 모델에 대한 하이퍼파라미터가 최적화되었기 때문이라 판단된다. 향후 본 연구의 방법론은 보다 정확한 댐 유입량 예측 자료를 생성하기 위한 방안 수립뿐만 아니라 다양한 분야의 불균형한 데이터셋을 이용한 앙상블 모델을 구축하는데도 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

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