• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.341-349
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• 2016

This study is intended to set a greenhouse gas emission scenario based on green remodeling pilot project (Annex building of Seoul Customs Office) using LEAP model, a long-term energy plan analysis model, to calculate the energy saving and greenhouse gas emission till year 2035 as well as to analyze the effect of electric power saving cost. Total 4 scenarios were made, Baseline scenario, assuming the past trend is to be maintained in the future, green remodeling scenario, reflecting actual green remodeling project of Seoul Customs Office, behavior improvement and renewable energy supply, and Total scenario. According to the analysis result, the energy demand in 2035 of Baseline scenario was 6.1% decreased from base year 2013, that of green remodeling scenario was 17.5%, that of behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario was 21.1% and that of total scenario was 27.3%. The greenhouse emission of base year 2013 was $878.2tCO_2eq$, and it was expected $826.3tCO_2eq$, approx. 5.9% reduced, in 2035 by Baseline scenario. the cumulative greenhouse gas emission saving of the analyzing period were $-26.5tCO_2eq$ by green remodeling scenario, $2.8k\;tCO_2eq$ by behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario, and $2.0k\;tCO_2eq$ by total scenario. In addition the effect of electricity saving cost through energy saving has been estimated, and it was approx. 634 million won by green remodeling scenario and appro. 726 million won by behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario. So it is analyzed that of behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario would be approx. 12.7% higher than that of green remodeling scenario.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.85-93
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• 2016

This study the efficiency of greenhouse gas reduction of 'low carbon car collaboration fund' and its alternative 'control of average fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas', and 'improving driving behavior' were analyzed by using LEAP, long term energy analysis model. Total 4 scenarios were set, baseline scenario, without energy-saving activity, 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario, 'fuel efficiency improving scenario', and 'improving driving behavior' scenario. The contents of analysis were forecast of energy demand by scenario and application as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emission volume, and the period taken for analysis was every 1 year during 2015~2030. Baseline scenario, greenhouse gas emission volume in 2015 would be 7,935,697 M/T and 13,081,986 M/T in 2030, increased 64.8%. The analysis result was average annual increase rate of 3.4%. The expected average annual increase rate of other scenarios was, 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario 1.7%, 'fuel efficiency improving' scenario 3.0%. and 'improving driving behavior' scenario 3.4%. and these were each 1.7%, 0.3%. 0.3% reduce from baseline scenario. The largest reduction was 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario, and there after were 'fuel efficiency improving scenario', and 'improving driving behavior' scenario.

• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국태양에너지학회 2009년도 추계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.181-184
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• 2009

This study aimed at framing alternative urban planning scenarios reflecting urban planning factors, performing urban climate simulation and evaluating eco-friend and low energy characteristics of each scenario on the viewpoint of urban temperature and energy savings on the target of the costal city including Haeundae District in Busan The results are as follows. 1)The fact that urban higher temperature is approximately 2.5 times higher in the building constructed area than whole urban area was represented severe higher temperature phenomenon in the built-up area. Ground greening, water scenario and soil scenario could be expected peek air temperature alleviating effect in order. Especially water scenario had significant effect(maximum $2.5^{\circ}C$) on lowering of air temperature.

• 에너지공학
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.10-22
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• 2020

미세먼지 문제 해결에 대한 국민적 요구가 높아짐에 따라 정부에서는 강도 높은 미세먼지 관련 대책을 발표하고 있다. 그래서 최근에 미세먼지의 전구체 중에서 질소산화물을 제거하기 위한 배연탈질기술로서 선택적 촉매환원법(SCR)이 주목받고 있다. 본 연구에서는 미세먼지 관련 정부정책과 시장 및 기술개발 현황을 조사하고, SCR 기술이 산업체에 적용되는 경우를 Case별로 구분하여 시나리오별 경제성 분석을 실시하였다. 시나리오별 경제성 분석의 결과는 NPV로 산출하였으며, 탈질설비가 구축되어 있지 않은 기업(Case 1)이 일반 SCR 기술을 신규로 도입하는 경우(Scenario 1-1)와 저온 SCR 기술을 신규로 도입하는 경우(Scenario 1-2)를 분석하였다. 그리고 탈질설비가 이미 구축되어 있는 기업(Case 2)이 일반 SCR 기술을 그대로 사용하는 경우(Scenario 2-1)와 저온 SCR 기술로 대체하는 경우(Scenario 2-2)로 구분하여 분석하였으며, 모든 시나리오별 NPV 결과를 바탕으로 비교 분석을 실시하였다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제32권6호
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• pp.419-428
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• 2023

This study estimates the greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from energy sector of Changwon city from 2012 to 2020 and scenario analysis of GHGs reductions pathways in the context of the goal of 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon neutral scenario in Korea. As a result, the GHG emissions as a reference year of carbon neutral in 2018 were estimated as 8,872,641 tonCO_2eq accounting for 3,851,786 tonCO_2eq (43.6%) of direct source (scope 1) and 4,975,855 tonCO_2eq (56.4%) of indirect source (scope 2). Especially, among indirect sources as purchased electricity, manufacturing sector emitted the largest GHG accounting for 33.0%(2,915 thousands tonCO_2eq) of the total emissions from all energy sectors, scenario analysis of GHG reductions potential from the energy was analyzed 8,473,614 tonCO_2eq and the residual emissions were 354,027 tonCO_2eq. Purchased electricity and industry sector reducted the largest GHG accounting for 58.7%(4,976 thousands tonCO_2eq) and 42.1%(3,565 thousands tonCO_2eq) of the total emissions from all energy sectors, respectively.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.59-68
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• 2014

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.191-200
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• 2005

Shaking table tests of the seismic behavior of a steel frame structure model were performed. The purpose of these tests was to estimate the effects of a near-fault ground motion and a scenario earthquake based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for nuclear power plant structures. Three representative kinds of earthquake ground motions were used for the input motions: the design earthquake ground motion for the Korean nuclear power plants, the scenario earthquakes for Korean nuclear power plant sites, and the near-fault earthquake record from the Chi-Chi earthquake. The probability-based scenario earthquakes were developed for the Korean nuclear power plant sites using the PSHA data. A 4-story steel frame structure was fabricated to perform the tests. Test results showed that the high frequency ground motions of the scenario earthquake did not damage the structure at the nuclear power plant site; however, the ground motions had a serious effect on the equipment installed on the high floors of the building. This shows that the design earthquake is not conservative enough to demonstrate the actual danger to safety related nuclear power plant equipment.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.108-120
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• 2003

In assessing the long term post closure radiological safety assessment of a potential HLW repository in Korea, three categories of uncertainties exist. The first one is the scenario uncertainty where series of different natural events are translated into written statements. The second one is the modeling uncertatinty where different mathematical models are applied for an identical scenario. The last one is the data uncertainty which can be expressed in terms of probabilistic density functions. In this analysis, three different scenarios are seleceted; a small well scenario, a radiolysis scenario, and a naturally discharged scenario. The MASCOT-K and the AMBER, probabilistic safety assessment codes based on connection of sub-modules and a compartment theory respectively, are applied to assess annual individual doses for a generic biosphere. Results illustrate that for a given scenario, predictions from two different codes fairly match well each other But the discrepancies for the different scenarios are significant. However, total doses are still well below the guideline of 2 mRem/yr. Detailed analyses with model and data uncertainties are underway to further assure the safety of a Korean reference dispsoal concept.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.183-193
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• 2012

에너지분석모형인 LEAP을 활용하여 국내 대학을 대상으로 에너지 사용 및 온실가스 배출 현황과 감축 잠재량을 분석하였다. 대학의 온실가스 감축 잠재량 산정을 위해 먼저 에너지 사용을 용도별로 구분하고, 용도별 저감 방법을 제시하여 LEAP 모형을 통해 2020년까지의 감축 잠재량을 산정하였다. 온실가스 감축 잠재량 예측을 위한 시나리오는 총 4개로, 추가적인 에너지 감축 활동이 없을 때의 에너지 수요량을 예측한 기준 시나리오와 LED로의 조명 교체, 고효율 기기로의 교체를 통한 에너지 저감 시나리오, 두 가지를 모두 시행한 통합 시나리오로 구성하였다. 시나리오에 따른 결과로는 통합 시나리오를 통해 2020년 온실가스 배출량이 $14,916tCO_2eq$로 2010년 대비 43.7% 증가하는 데 그치는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 즉, S대학교의 온실가스 배출량은 에너지 사용 저감 노력으로 기준 시나리오 대비 약 23.7%의 온실가스 배출량을 줄일 수 있었다. 또한 전자제품의 효율 향상 연구를 통해 더 많은 에너지 절감 효과를 확인하였다. 이와 함께 대학 구성원들의 의식 변화 및 직접적인 에너지 절약 실천이 이루어진다면 그 효과를 극대화 시킬 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국연소학회 2015년도 제51회 KOSCO SYMPOSIUM 초록집
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• pp.279-282
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• 2015

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) has provided the current status of energy system, technology developments and external events that have changed ETP scenario since 2006. The three scenarios are presented in four different fields (power generation, transport, industry, building). Energy efficiency improvement of energy system and the new system that can solve the increasing energy demand and the emissions are introduced. The activities on IEA/ECERC delegation of Korea will be also reported in this presentation.