• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.95-130
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• 2003

The purpose of this study is to find what causes make public projects hold off, going beyond the planned deadline and budget. Using System Dynamics(SD) and their derivative Urban Dynamics(UD) models, it intends to analyze major feedback loops based on VENSIM and to simulate them with STELLA software, all of which are interrelated with various causes of project delay. To prevent or ameliorate project delay, first of all it advises to focus on endogenous delaying factors not exogenous ones. These factors either reinforce or balance certain loops in complex causal structure, In the case example on the Cremation Building Project in Cheongju, Residents’ participation demand make negotiation put off and delayed negotiation reinforces administrative-expediency planning in order to observe a time limit, on the other hand, once building consensus, it increase both the level of planning performance and public trust. In the meantime, the real planning process used to neglect residents opinions and manage public grievance only through compensation, he a result of simulation, visible fruit of negotiation in the initial phase seems to be not satisfactory owing to funds and time consumed, but after reaching an mutual agreement among stakeholders, planning performance is effective and strategic than administrative-expediency planning viewed in both financial and time angle. It proposes to devise specific tools schematizing project implementation. In order to upgrade the quality of project management, it recommends for planners to adopt key concepts based on SD/UD diagrams and causal loops, which would contribute to enriching Planning abbots.

• IMMUNE NETWORK
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.104-108
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• 2001

Aging is a senescence and defined as a normal physiologic and structural alterations in almost all organ systems with age. As Leonard Hayflick, one of the first gerontologists to propose a theory of biologic aging, indicated that a theory of aging or longevity satisfies the changes of above conditions to be universal, progressive, intrinsic and deleterious. Although a number of theories have been proposed, it is now clear that cell aging (cell senescence) is multifactorial. No single mechanism can account for the many varied manifestations of biological aging. Many theories have been proposed in attempt to understand and explain the process of aging. Aging is effected in individual by genetic factors, diet, social conditions, and the occurrence of age-related diseases as diabetes, hypertension, and arthritis. It involves an endogenous molecular program of cellular senescence as well as continuous exposure throughout life to adverse exogenous influences, leading to progressive infringement on the cell's survivability so called wear and tear. So we could say the basic mechanism of aging depends on the irreversible and universal processes at cellular and molecular level. The immediate cause of these changes is probably an interference in the function of cell's macromolecules-DNA, RNA, and cell proteins-and in the flow of information between these macromolecules. The crucial questions, unanswered at present, concerns what causes these changes in truth. Common theories of aging are able to classify as followings for the easy comprehension. 1. Biological, 1) molecular theories - a. error theory, b. programmed aging theory, c. somatic mutation theory, d. transcription theory, e. run-out-of program theory, 2) cellular theories - a. wear and tear theory, b. cross-link theory, c. clinker theory, d. free radical theory, e. waste product theory, 3) system level theory-a. immunologic/autoimmune theory, 4) others - a. telomere theory, b. rate of living theory, c. stress theory, etc. Prevention of aging is theoretically depending on the cause or theory of aging. However no single theory is available and no definite method of delaying the aging process is possible by this moment. The most popular action is anti-oxidant therapy using vitamin E and C, melatonin and DHEA, etc. Another proposal for the reverse of life-span is TCP-17 and IL-16 administration from the mouse bone marrow B cell line study for the immunoglobulin VDJ rearrangement with RAG-1 and RAG-2. Recently conclusional suggestion for the extending of maximum life-span thought to be the calory restriction.