Delay Factor Analysis of Public Project Based on System Dynamics

SD를 이용한 공공 프로젝트의 지체요인 분석

The purpose of this study is to find what causes make public projects hold off, going beyond the planned deadline and budget. Using System Dynamics(SD) and their derivative Urban Dynamics(UD) models, it intends to analyze major feedback loops based on VENSIM and to simulate them with STELLA software, all of which are interrelated with various causes of project delay. To prevent or ameliorate project delay, first of all it advises to focus on endogenous delaying factors not exogenous ones. These factors either reinforce or balance certain loops in complex causal structure, In the case example on the Cremation Building Project in Cheongju, Residents’ participation demand make negotiation put off and delayed negotiation reinforces administrative-expediency planning in order to observe a time limit, on the other hand, once building consensus, it increase both the level of planning performance and public trust. In the meantime, the real planning process used to neglect residents opinions and manage public grievance only through compensation, he a result of simulation, visible fruit of negotiation in the initial phase seems to be not satisfactory owing to funds and time consumed, but after reaching an mutual agreement among stakeholders, planning performance is effective and strategic than administrative-expediency planning viewed in both financial and time angle. It proposes to devise specific tools schematizing project implementation. In order to upgrade the quality of project management, it recommends for planners to adopt key concepts based on SD/UD diagrams and causal loops, which would contribute to enriching Planning abbots.