• Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• 제21권4호
• /
• pp.355-364
• /
• 2016

Beijing, as a cradle of modern industry and the third largest metropolitan area in China, faces more responsibilities to adjust industrial structure and mitigate carbon emissions. The purpose of this study is aimed at predicting and comparing industrial carbon emissions of Beijing in ten scenarios under different policy focus, and then providing emission-cutting recommendations. In views of various scenarios issues, system dynamics has been applied to predict and simulate. To begin with, the model has been established following the step of causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram. This paper decomposes scenarios factors into energy structure, high energy consumption enterprises and growth rate of industrial output. The prediction and scenario simulation results shows that energy structure, carbon intensity and heavy energy consumption enterprises are key factors, and multiple factors has more significant impact on industrial carbon emissions. Hence, some recommendations about low-carbon mode of Beijing industrial carbon emission have been proposed according to simulation results.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
• /
• 제32권2호
• /
• pp.127-147
• /
• 2023

본 연구는 정부의 탄소중립 정책 중 하나인 화력발전을 신재생에너지로 대체하는 경우 에 대한 경제적 파급효과를 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이러한 분석을 위해 화력발전을 신재생에너지로 100% 대체하는 경우를 시나리오 A로 설정하고, 60%로 대체하는 경우를 시나리오 B로 설정한다. 또한 이렇게 화력발전을 신재생에너지로 대체할 때 비용이 발생하게 되는데 현행과 동일한 비용인 경우를 시나리오 1, 현행보다 비용이 120% 증가한 경우를 시나리오 2로 설정한다. 따라서 화력발전을 신재생에너지로 전환할 때 시나리오는 크게 이와 같이 4가지 경우로 정리된다. 화력발전을 신재생에너지로 전환하는 경우, 화력발전의 생산유발계수는 시나리오와 관계없이 현행 수준보다 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 화력발전을 신재생에너지로 100% 전환하는 경우 부가가치유발계수와 온실가스배출량 유발계수는 현행 수준보다 감소한 반면 화력발전을 신재생에너지로 60% 대체하는 경우 부가가치유발계수와 온실가스배출량 유발계수는 현행 수준보다 증가했다. 또한 대부분의 업종의 온실가스배출량 유발계수는 감소하는 것으로 나타난 반면 생산유발계수와 부가가치유발계수는 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 정부 정책의 목적은 화력발전을 신재생에너지로 전환시켜 온실가스배출량을 축소시키는 것이기 때문에 시나리오 화력발전을 신재생에너지로 100% 전환하는 경우가 더 적합한 것으로 보인다. 다만, 이로 인해 일부 업종의 생산유발계수와 부가가치유발계수가 감소하는 부작용이 발생하므로 이를 해결하기 위한 정부의 지원 정책이 필요하다.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제36권1호
• /
• pp.48.1-48.1
• /
• 2011

We utilize the jitter radiation, which is the emission of relativistic electrons in the random and small-scale magnetic field, to investigate the high-energy emissions of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). Under the turbulent scenario, the random and small-scale magnetic field is determined by the turbulence. We also estimate the acceleration and cooling timescales. We identify that some GRBs are possible cosmic-ray sources.

• 한국도로학회논문집
• /
• 제16권6호
• /
• pp.129-136
• /
• 2014

PURPOSES : This study devotes its energies to estimate greenhouse gas emissions for types of horizontal highway designs. METHODS : This paper suggested two types of road scenarios, scenario 1 is made by the lack of road design consistency. Beside scenario 1, scenario 2 is made by good road design. For comparisons of greenhouse gas emissions, driving simulator was used. RESULTS : Emission rates of road scenario 1 are 1.4 times higher than scenario 2 in the driving simulator. CONCLUSIONS : This study may have important implications for contributing to the application of road alignment technology for reduction of greenhouse gases as quantifying the correlations between greenhouse emissions and various road alignments. Consequently, this study will help road designers determine which roads are best alternatives in the process of choosing the roads in the future in terms of environmental benefits.

• 환경영향평가
• /
• 제8권1호
• /
• pp.29-40
• /
• 1999

This study focuses on one of typical energy-intensive industries, the cement industry. The purpose of the study is to propose $SO_2$ emission reduction measures in the cement industry. This study partially employed and modified AIM(Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) developed by Japan National Environmental Research Institute to develop AIM/KOREA SULFUR model for simulation. In the study, a base scenario, and mitigation scenarios(a use of low-sulfur contain fuel, fuel conversion to cleaner energy, an induction of desulfurization systems, and energy saving) were employed. The results of the simulation are summarized below: The sulphur dioxide emission from the cement industry in 1992 was estimated to be 106,000 metric tons; however, according to base scenario, sulphur dioxide emission is expected to be increased to 219,000 metric tons, which is 2.1 times greater than that in 1992 by year 2020. To alleviate such increasement, simulation results under various scenarios proved that some degrees of reduction may be possible by an induction of desulfulization systems although there may be numerous ways to interpretate the simulation results.

• 한국대기환경학회지
• /
• 제32권2호
• /
• pp.193-207
• /
• 2016

This study discusses the present status of mercury emission and distribution from major anthropogenic sources in Korea and the future trend of mercury emission by activity changes and application of BATs. Atmospheric mercury emission from major anthropogenic sources based on Annex D of Minamata convention was estimated to around 4.89 tonne in 2012. Emission ratios of cement clinker production, coal-fired power plant, waste incineration and non-ferrous metal smelting were 68.68%, 24.75%, 6.29% and 0.28%, respectively. High mercury emission regions were characterized by the presence of cement clinker production facilities and coal-fired power plants. Prediction of future activities was carried out by linear regression of the previous year data. The (total) mercury emission was estimated to decrease up to 48% Under the scenario of BATs to be applied and the change of future activities. Emissions from coal-fired powerplants and cement clinkers were expected to decrease significantly.

• 환경영향평가
• /
• 제22권6호
• /
• pp.667-676
• /
• 2013

This study analyzed the energy demand, greenhouse gas emission and greenhouse gas reduction potential of Electronic Electrical components company. The LEAP model targeting long term energy plan was used to establish the most efficient plan for the companies by examining the climate change policy of government and the countermeasures by companies. A scenario was created by having 11 greenhouse gases reduction plans to be introduced from 2011 as the basic plan. Regarding input data, energy consumption by business place and by use, number of employee from 2009 to 2012, land area and change in number of business places were utilized. The study result suggested that approximately 13,800 TJ of energy will be spent in 2020, which is more than 2 times of 2012 energy consumption. When the integrated scenario based on the reduction plan of companies would be enforced, approximately 3,000 TJ will be reduced in 2020. The emission of greenhouse gases until 2020 was forecasted as approximately 760,000 ton $CO_2eq$. When the integrated scenario would be enforced, the emission will be approximately 610,000 ton $CO_2eq$, which is decrease by approximately 150,000 ton $CO_2eq$. This study will help the efficient responding of eElectronic Electrical components company in preparing detail report on objective management system and enforcement plan. It will also contribute in their image as environment-friendly companies by properly responding to the regulation reinforcement of government and greenhouse gases emission target based on environment policy.

• 환경영향평가
• /
• 제7권2호
• /
• pp.71-82
• /
• 1998

This study focuses on one of the most typical energy-intensive industries, the steel industry. The two-fold purpose of the study is to develop a model to assess measures to alleviate sulfur dioxide($SO_2$) emissions from the steel industry and to propose a concrete $SO_2$ emission reduction measure from the steel industry. This study partially employed and modified AIM(Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) developed by Japan National Environmental Research Institute to develop AIM/KOREA SULFUR model for simulation. In the study, a base scenario, which is BAU(Business As Usual) scenario, and mitigation scenarios(a use of low-sulfur contain fuel, fuel conversion to cleaner energy, an induction of desulfurization systems, and energy saving) were employed. The results of the simulation are summarized below: The sulphur dioxide emission from the steel industry in 1992 was estimated to be 252,000 metric tons; however, according to BAU scenario, sulphur dioxide emission is expected to be increased to 586,000 metric tons, which is 2.3 times greater than that in 1992 by year 2020. To alleviate such increasement, simulation results under various 7scenarios proved that some degrees of reduction may be possible by an induction of desulfurization systems although there may be numerous ways to interpretate the simulation results; however, the bottom line is that it appears to be difficult to achieve the Korean Ministry of Environment's policy goal-a mitigation of sulphur dioxide concentration to 0.01ppm.

• 한국항해항만학회지
• /
• 제35권9호
• /
• pp.777-783
• /
• 2011

Interest about Modal Shift is not being decreased, and it is drawing limelight as green logistics which meets low carbon green growth of National development vision. As an effect of Modal Shift, not only reduction in CO2 emission but also reduction in social cost, logistics cost etc. are being discussed. However, until now research about its practical transformation effect has been scanty. In this study, the actual expenses via CO2 emission, social cost, and logistics cost etc. by road transportation and rail transportation of container cargo with Origin/Destination between Busan-Kyeonggi Area were calculated and we propose beneficial effects when transportation mode is transformed from road to rail with Scenario Planning.

• 한국환경과학회지
• /
• 제23권9호
• /
• pp.1643-1654
• /
• 2014

The university is one of the main energy consumption facilities and thereby releases a large amount of greenhouse gas (GHG). Accordingly, efforts for reducing energy consumption and GHG have been established in many local as well as international universities. However, it has been limited to energy consumption and GHG, and has not included air pollution (AP). Therefore, we estimated GHG and AP integrated emissions from the energy consumed by Seoul National University of Science and Technology during the years between 2010 and 2012. In addition, the effect of alternative energy use scenario was analysed. We estimated GHG using IPCC guideline and Guidelines for Local Government Greenhouse Inventories, and AP using APEMEP/EEA Emission Inventory Guidebook 2013 and Air Pollutants Calculation Manual. The estimated annual average GHG emission was $11,420tonCO_{2eq}$, of which 27% was direct emissions from fuel combustion sectors, including stationary and mobile source, and the remaining 73% was indirect emissions from purchased electricity and purchased water supply. The estimated annual average AP emission was 7,757 kgAP, of which the total amount was from direct emissions only. The annual GHG emissions from city gas and purchased electricity usage per unit area ($m^2$) of the university buildings were estimated as $15.4kgCO_{2eq}/m^2$ and $42.4tonCO_{2eq}/m^2$ and those per person enrolled in the university were $210kgCO_{2eq}$/capita and $577kgCO_{2eq}$/capita. Alternative energy use scenarios revealed that the use of all alternative energy sources including solar energy, electric car and rain water reuse applicable to the university could reduce as much as 9.4% of the annual GHG and 34% of AP integrated emissions, saving approximately 400 million won per year, corresponding to 14% of the university energy budget.