• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.133-143
• /
• 2023

The detrimental impacts of financial instability on the world economy during the financial crisis highlighted the requirement to understand the existing financial circumstances. Stability and developments in financial conditions are important for economic prosperity. This study analyses the impact of geopolitical risk on the economic conditions of some specific emerging economies using monthly data from January 1999 to September 2016 by applying a fixed-effects panel data model. The estimation results demonstrated that geopolitical risk has a significant, negative impact on financial conditions. It shows geopolitical risk could be seen as a key factor that contributes towards financial conditions. Further, it implies that negative shocks of high geopolitical risk experienced by emerging economies are one of the primary reasons for the financial conditions' deterioration. The findings provide important insights for governments, policymakers, and investors. For instance, governments and politicians should refrain from expressing or producing tension, economic discomfort, or news that is likely to increase a high geopolitical risk. Maintaining a close eye on geopolitical risk and its sources may also help to stabilize financial conditions and develop a well-functioning financial system. As a result, investors would be better informed about an economy's economic and financial conditions, allowing them to diversify their international portfolios and devise investing strategies during uncertain economic times.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
• /
• v.30 no.B
• /
• pp.11-16
• /
• 2010

To provide a development strategy on the method which assesses a potential risk of nationwide emerging IT infrastructure in planning and design phase, and to classify the assessment result into 5 levels is the goal of this research. The development strategy provided in this paper could improve a benefit-cost-ratio of investments on emerging IT infrastructure. With a premature assessment of the potential risks of a nationwide emerging IT infrastructure which needs astronomical amount of public funds, it could show a way of systematic investments on security systems and improve a benefit-cost-ratio of investments on emerging IT infrastructure. Also, this approach might improve the safety of nationwide IT infrastructure. It could identify and provide an optimized solution for the potential risks of nationwide IT infrastructure.

• Health Policy and Management
• /
• v.32 no.4
• /
• pp.356-367
• /
• 2022

Background: The emergence of new infectious diseases threatens public health, increasing socioeconomic damage, and national risks. This study aimed to develop an evidence-based risk assessment tool to quickly respond to new infectious diseases. Methods: The risk elements were extracted by reviewing the risk assessment methods of the World Health Organization, United States, Europe, United Kingdom, and Germany, and the validity and priority of elements were determined through expert meetings and Delphi surveys. Then, the scale and level for each risk element were defined and a final score calculation method according to the risk evaluation result was derived. The developed risk assessment tool was verified using data at the time of domestic transmission of an emerging infectious disease. Results: In case of spread of actual infectious diseases, priority is determined based on the criticality of the elements in each area of transmissibility and severity, from which the weighted score of the risk assessment is derived. Then, the risk score for each element was calculated by multiplying the average value of the risk evaluation by its weight and the evaluation risk assessment score for the two areas was calculated. At last, the final score is plotted in a matrix where the x-axis indicates the transmissibility and the y-axis the severity and plotted on the coordinate plane for time series use. Conclusion: With respect to transmissibility and severity, this risk assessment method to respond to new and re-emerging infectious diseases enables rapid and evidence-based evaluation by quantitatively and qualitatively assessing various risk elements.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
• /
• v.11 no.7
• /
• pp.14-20
• /
• 2021

Most accidents caused by road icing in winter lead to major accidents. Because it is difficult for the driver to detect the road icing in advance. In this work, we study how to accurately detect road traffic emerging risk using AutoML and CNN's ensemble model that use both structured and unstructured data. We train CNN-based road traffic emerging risk classification model using images that are unstructured data and AutoML-based road traffic emerging risk classification model using weather data that is structured data, respectively. After that the ensemble model is designed to complement the CNN-based classification model by inputting probability values derived from of each models. Through this, improves road traffic emerging risk classification performance and alerts drivers more accurately and quickly to enable safe driving.

• Journal of East Asia Management
• /
• v.3 no.2
• /
• pp.1-19
• /
• 2022

This study suggests an integrated theoretical framework for the relationship between political risk and multinational corporation (MNC) subsidiary's performance in the emerging market. The political risk would have a negative impact on MNC subsidiary's performance in the emerging countries that are developing in Asia, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Africa, and South America. The major reason is that political risks could generate a loss of benefit or a loss of control for MNC's subsidiary. In this study, I suggest that corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy would be a solution to overcome various political risks. Specifically, the affiliated firms with diversified industries or greater financial resources could mitigate the negative impact of political risk than unaffiliated firms. Because they can use their tangible or nontangible asset such as information, technology, and construction in order to gain legitimacy and trust from local government, local community, and local firms in the emerging market. Finally, I claimed the costs of the affiliated firms would exceed the benefits at the initial stages, while the benefits of affiliated firms would exceed the costs over time when political risks become higher. The reason is that the trust gained from local stakeholders accumulates over time and the impact of CSR strategy would become an important solution to overcome the risks in and unstable context.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.8
• /
• pp.25-31
• /
• 2020

The purpose of this paper is to examine a financial distress premium in the emerging market. A risk-return trade-off of negative book equity (NBE) and distress firms is empirically analyzed using data from the Stock Exchange of Thailand. This research employs Ohlson's (1980) bankruptcy model as a measurement of distress risk. The results indicate that distress firms outperform solvent firms in the Thai market and deny distress anomaly often found in the developed market. Fama-Frech (1993) three-factor model and Carhart (1997) four-factor model verify the existence of a distress premium in the Thai capital market. Risk-seeking investors demand greater compensation for bearing risks of distress firms' going concern. This paper provides fresh evidence that default risk is a significant explanatory factor in pricing stocks in the emerging market. Also, this study sheds light on the role of NBE firms in asset pricing. Most studies eliminate NBE firms from their sample. However, NBE firms yield superior average cross-sectional returns, albeit with higher volatility. Investors are rewarded with distress risks associated with NBE firms. The outperformance of NBE firms is statistically significant when compared to the overall market. The NBE premium disappears when factoring size, value, and momentum in time-series analysis.

• Health Policy and Management
• /
• v.32 no.4
• /
• pp.380-388
• /
• 2022

Background: Emerging infectious diseases, such as Middle East respiratory syndrome or coronavirus disease 2019, pose a continuous threat to public health, making a risk assessment necessary for infectious disease control and prevention. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the risk assessment methods for infectious diseases used by major foreign countries and organizations. Methods: We conducted an investigation and comparative analysis of risk assessment and risk determination methods for infectious diseases. The risk assessment tools included the strategic toolkit for assessing risks, influenza risk assessment tool, pandemic severity assessment framework, and rapid risk assessment methodology. Results: The most frequently reported risk elements were disease severity, antiviral treatment, attack rate, population immunity, and basic productive ratio. The risk evaluation method was evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively by the stakeholders at each institution. Additionally, the final risk level was visualized in a matrix, framework, and x and y-axis. Conclusion: Considering the risk assessment tools, the risk element was classified based on the duplicate of each indicator, and risk evaluation and level of risk assessment were analyzed.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.20 no.12
• /
• pp.81-87
• /
• 2022

Purpose: This study aims to explore the relationship between stock liquidity and skewness risk-tail risk (stock price crash risk) in an emerging market, in which problems on liquidity are more severe than in developed markets. Research design, data, and methodology: Based on the Thai market stock exchange over the period of 2000 to 2019, our sample include 13,462 firm-period observations. We employ a panel regression models regarding to five liquidity measures. These five liquidity measures cover three dimensions of liquidity namely the volume-based, price-based, and transaction cost-based measures for the liquidity-tail risk relationship. Results: We find a positively significant relationship between stock liquidity and tail risk in all cases. The finding here shows that the higher the stock liquidity, the larger the tail risk is. Conclusion: As the prior studies show inconclusive effect of stock liquidity on stock price crash risk, we demonstrate that mixed results found in prior studies are probably driven from the type of liquidity measure. The stock liquidity-tail risk association is present in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The results remain the same regardless of the definition of tail risk and liquidity factors. An endogeneity issue is addressed by employing the two-stage least squares regression.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.717-729
• /
• 2021

This paper examines the efficacy of the default risk factor in an emerging market context using the Fama-French five-factor model. Our aim is to test whether the Fama-French five-factor model augmented with a default risk factor improves the predictability of returns of portfolios sorted on the firm's characteristics as well as on industry. The default risk factor is constructed by estimating the probability of default using a hybrid version of dynamic panel probit and artificial neural network (ANN) to proxy default risk. This study also provides evidence on the temporal stability of risk premiums obtained using the Fama-MacBeth approach. Using a sample of 3,806 firm-year observations on non-financial listed companies of Pakistan over 2006-2015 we found that the augmented model performed better when tested across size-investment-default sorted portfolios. The investment factor contains some default-related information, but default risk is independently priced and bears a significantly positive risk premium. The risk premiums are also found temporally stable over the full sample and more recent sample period 2010-2015 as evidence by the Fama-MacBeth regressions. The finding suggests that the default risk factor is not a useless factor and due to mispricing, default risk anomaly prevails in the Pakistani equity market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.9 no.3
• /
• pp.347-354
• /
• 2022

This article examines the influence of Basel III reforms, risk management, and banking sector efficiency on banks' financial stability in emerging countries. The data for this study is collected from various sources. Based on the GDP classification of IMF, the top 22 countries were selected as the sample. The sampling frame includes all six regions of the world including 482 banks and 3022 observations in total. The empirical analysis is carried out by estimating the random effects models. It is found that the effects of capital buffer, liquidity, and risk management practices are significant on financial stability. It is also noticed that the capital buffer has a constructive and significant influence on financial stability. However, liquidity management shows a mixed impact, as in some countries, its impact is positive and significant while, in other countries, it is insignificant. Risk management practices have an overall positive influence on financial stability in the case of large economies. However, results are insignificant in the case of small economies. Bank-specific variables, namely profitability, size, and efficiency have a positive whereas, loan quality has a negative impact on financial stability in the emerging countries. GDP has a positive impact on financial stability whereas inflation and unemployment both have a negative effect on financial stability.