• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.63 no.11
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• pp.1503-1510
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• 2014

This study organizes scenarios on the power supply plans and electricity load forecasts considering their uncertainties and estimates natural gas quantity for electricity generation, total electricity supply cost and air pollutant emission of each scenario. Also the analysis is performed to check the properness of government's natural gas demand forecast and the possibility of achieving the government's CO2 emission target with the current plan and other scenarios. In result, no scenario satisfies the government's CO2 emission target and the natural gas demand could be doubled to the government's forecast. As under-forecast of natural gas demand has caused the increased natural gas procurement cost, it is required to consider uncertainties of power plant construction plan and electricity demand forecast in forecasting the natural gas demand. In addition, it is found that CO2 emission target could be achieved by enlarging natural gas use and demand-side management without big increase of total costs.