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A Study on Efficient Market Hypothesis to Predict Exchange Rate Trends Using Sentiment Analysis of Twitter Data

  • Komariah, Kokoy Siti;Machbub, Carmadi;Prihatmanto, Ary S.;Sin, Bong-Kee
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.19 no.7
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    • pp.1107-1115
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    • 2016
  • Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), states that at any point in time in a liquid market security prices fully reflect all available information. This paper presents a study of proving the hypothesis through daily Twitter sentiments using the hybrid approach of the lexicon-based approach and the naïve Bayes classifier. In this research we analyze the currency exchange rate movement of Indonesia Rupiah vs US dollar as a way of testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis. In order to find a correlation between the prediction sentiments from Twitter data and the actual currency exchange rate trends we collect Twitter data every day and compute the overall sentiment to label them as positive or negative. Experimental results have shown 69% correct prediction of sentiment analysis and 65.7% correlation with positive sentiments. This implies that EMH is semi-strong Efficient Market Hypothesis, and that public information provide by Twitter sentiment correlate with changes in the exchange market trends.

The Perception on the Efficiency of the Internet Market and the Traditional Market - Focused in Women Consumers in their 20s ~ 30s - (인터넷 시장과 기존 시장의 효율성에 대한 소비자의 인지 - 20~30대 여성소비자를 중심으로 -)

  • 남수정;김기옥
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.40 no.12
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    • pp.199-216
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this research is to study the efficiency of the Internet market, not provided to consumers by the existing traditional market. This research examines whether consumers properly understand the efficiency of the Internet market. The result from consumers perception on the efficiencies in the two market are as follows. First, consumers perceived the traditional market as having more product alternatives compared to the Internet market. Second, consumers perceived that the Internet market was more efficient in price dispersion and price change Third, the Internet market was considered more efficient in searching and travel time, and in the search cost. Finally, the traditional market was considered as a better provider of the information about product function, feature, reality, usage and service compared to the Internet market. On the contrary, the Internet market turned out to be more effective in providing product information, price information and trading information compared to the traditional market. Therefore consumers perceived the traditional market of having more information.

Does Internet Increase the Market Efficiency? (인터넷이 시장의 효율성을 증가시키는가?)

  • Lee, Ho-Geun;Lee, Ran-Hui
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.3-18
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    • 2001
  • The Internet is taking up every single life of us with a huge speed of growth. If the ideal market called 'perfect competition' in economics will ever come true in this digital world, the sellers won't be able to have monopolistic profits above the marginal cost any more, letting the resource allocation much more efficient. This paper attempts to test whether this theory is true in e-market as well through observing price differences between online and offline retailers of extremely homogeneous products, CDs. Since most results from previous research were supporting the inefficiency of e-market in price level, price adjustment, and especially price dispersion, this article designed the research methodology most carefully. The results of pervious works are partly due to the immaturity of the Internet market or due to the uniqueness of the American CD market, where oligopolistic market players are significantly dominant. The analysis of price data of 20 titles from 20 retailers for five weeks supports that online market is more efficient than offline market with statistical significance in all the three dimensions. We could conclude that the e-market is going much more efficient at least compared to the offline market and the more would it be unless the sellers resist and prevent comparison-shopping.

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A Study on Market Efficiency with the Indexes of SSEC and SZSEC of China

  • DUAN, Guo Xi;TANIZAKI, Hisashi
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2022
  • This paper studies market efficiency from a weak form aspect using opening and closing prices of the Shanghai stock exchange composite index (SSEC) and Shenzhen stock exchange composite index (SZSEC) under the expected return theory. Classical methods (autocorrelation and runs test) are used to examine the features of stock returns, and little evidence against mutual independence of returns is found. We predict daily returns of SSEC and SZSEC with AR(p) and VAR(p) models (in this paper, p = 5 is taken as a one-week lag) and perform a virtual experiment on two indexes based on the predicted value of daily returns from AR(p) or VAR(p) model. From the results of AR(p) and VAR(p) for two indexes, we attempt to find out how the market efficiency level changes when the information from the other market is under consideration as we check the market efficiency level in one market. We find that SSEC in 2014-2016 and SZSEC in 2015-2016 are inefficient from the result of autocorrelation, that SSEC in 2016 and SZSEC in 2013 are not efficient from the result of runs test, that the stock market is efficient except 2005, 2009, 2010 and 2017 in SSEC and 2005, 2016 and 2017 in SZSEC and that SSEC is more influenced by SZSEC but SSEC influences SZSEC less from the result of the virtual experiment.

Agent-based Shipment Algorithm for Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem with Load Balancing (CVRP를 위한 에이전트 기반 Shipment 알고리듬 개발)

  • Oh, Seog-Chan;Yee, Shang-Tae;Kim, Taioun
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.200-209
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    • 2006
  • Load building is an important step to make the delivery supply chain efficient. We present a family of load makeup algorithms using market based control strategy, named LoadMarket, in order to build efficient loads where each load consists of a certain number of finished products having destinations. LoadMarket adopts Clark-Wright algorithm for generating initial endowment for Load Traders who cooperate to minimize either total travel distance or the variance with respect to the travel distances of loads by means of the spot market or double-sided auction market mechanism. The efficiency of the LoadMarket algorithms is illustrated using simulation based experiments.

Two-Stage Model for Security Network-Constrained Market Auction in Pool-Based Electricity Market

  • Kim, Mun-Kyeom
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.2196-2207
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents a two-stage market auction model in a pool-based electricity market, which explicitly takes into account the system network security. The security network-constrained market auction model considers the use of corrective control to yield economically efficient actions in the post-contingency state, while ensuring a certain security level. Under this framework, the proposed model shows not only for quantifying the correlation between secure system operation and efficient market operation, but also for providing transparent information on the pricing system security for market participants. The two-stage market auction procedure is formulated using Benders decomposition (BD). In the first stage, the market participants bid in the market for maximizing their profit, and the independent system operator (ISO) clears the market based on social welfare maximization. System network constraints incorporating post-contingency control actions are described in the second stage of the market auction procedure. The market solutions, along with the BD, yield nodal spot prices (NSPs) and nodal congestion prices (NCPs) as byproducts of the proposed two-stage market auction model. Two benchmark systems are used to test and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

An Efficient Revenue/Profit Evaluation Method Based on Probabilistic Production Costing Technique (확률적 운전비계산 모형에 기초한 발전기 수입/순익 평가 방법론 개발)

  • 박종배;신중린;김민수;전영환
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.51 no.12
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    • pp.638-646
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents an efficient algorithm for evaluating the Profit and revenue of generating units in a competitive electricity market based on the probabilistic production costing technique. The accurate evaluation of the profit and revenue of generating units for long-term perspectives is one of the most important issues in a competitive electricity market environment. For efficient calculation of the profit and revenue of generating units under the equivalent load duration curve(ELDC), a new approach to figure out the marginal plants and the corresponding market clearing prices during a time period in a probabilistic manner is developed. The mathematical formulation and illustrative application of the suggested method is presented.

Are Korean Industry-Sorted Portfolios Mean Reverting?

  • Moon, Seongman
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.169-190
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    • 2016
  • This paper tests the weak-form efficient market hypothesis for Korean industry-sorted portfolios. Based on a panel variance ratio approach, we find significant mean reversion of stock returns over long horizons in the pre Asian currency crisis period but little evidence in the post-crisis period. Our empirical findings are consistent with the fact that Korea accelerated its integration with international financial market by implementing extensive capital liberalization since the crisis.

The Characteristics of Korea Stock Market using Variance Ratio (한국주식시장에서 주식규모별 분산비 특성에 관한 연구 -서브프라임 전.후의 비교를 중심으로-)

  • Seo, Sang-Gu;Park, Jong-Hae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.26
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    • pp.293-309
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    • 2008
  • This study examined the market efficiency of korea stock market by comparing variance ratios(VR) of stock groups which is sorted by market capitalization. We compute variance ratios of KOSPI large capitalization, midium capitalization, and small capitalization for 546 trading days from 2006/01/02 to 2008/04/15. For our study, we also use high frequency data that is; intra-day 1 minute data. The characteristics of variance ratios of stock groups by market capitalization as follows: From 1 to 5 minute interval, variance ratios of three stock group increase far from zero(0). The longer time interval, the more variance ratios decrease, but only large capitalization converge on around zero. This means that the market of large capitalization is more efficient compare to other stock groups. The entire sample period can be divided two sub-period because the impact of sub prime crisis arised from U.S.A. influences Korea stock market. Before sub prime crisis, the VRs of mid cap and small cap do not converge on around zero except large cap although the time interval is longer. After sub prime crisis, the VRs of three stock groups decrease when time interval is longer, but only large cap converge on around zero. We conclude that large cap is more efficient than other stock groups in Korea Stock Market.

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A Study on the Improvement of Agricultural Marketing System (농산물 유통구조 개선에 관한 연구)

  • 기재석
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.21 no.48
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    • pp.263-268
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    • 1998
  • An efficient agricultural marketing system is very important to producers and consumers to keep the reasonable prices. In these days, the main policy for the efficient agricultural marketing system is to enlarge the direct transaction market. But it is not easy to enlarge the direct transaction market in a few years. This paper proposes a new efficient agricultural marketing system that gives a similar effect with the direct market. The proposed system is mainly composed of three associations; producers', consumers' and retailers'association, and the function of the system is devided into material affairs and commercial affairs. The structure of the system also can be simplified as two to three steps. So the system can reduce the cost of logistics and keep the reasonable prices for both producers and consumers.

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