• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.161-179
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• 2015

An emergency response system (ERS) for vessel oil spills is a complex and dynamic system comprising a number of subsystems and activities. Failures may occur during the emergency response operations, this has negative impacts on the effectiveness of the ERS. Of the classes of problems in analyzing failures, the lack of quantitative data is fundamental. In fact, most of the empirical data collected via questionnaire survey is subjective in nature and is inevitably associated with uncertainties caused by the human being's inability to provide complete judgement. In addition, incomplete information and/or vagueness of the meaning about the failures add difficulties in evaluating the effectiveness of the system. Therefore this paper proposes a framework to evaluate the ERS effectiveness by using the combination of fuzzy reasoning and evidential synthesis approaches. Based on analyzing the procedure of ERS for oil spills, the failures in the system could be identified, using Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)to determine the relative weight of identified failures. Fuzzy reasoning combined with evidential synthesis is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of ERS for oil spills under uncertainties last. The proposed method is capable of dealing with uncertainties in data including ignorance and vagueness which traditional methods cannot effectively handle. A case study is used to illustrate the application of the proposed method.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제55권5호
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• pp.415-423
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• 2022

Economic evaluations in the healthcare are used to assess economic efficiency of pharmaceuticals and medical interventions such as diagnoses and medical procedures. This study introduces the main concepts of economic evaluation across its key steps: planning, outcome and cost calculation, modeling, cost-effectiveness results, uncertainty analysis, and decision-making. When planning an economic evaluation, we determine the study population, intervention, comparators, perspectives, time horizon, discount rates, and type of economic evaluation. In healthcare economic evaluations, outcomes include changes in mortality, the survival rate, life years, and quality-adjusted life years, while costs include medical, non-medical, and productivity costs. Model-based economic evaluations, including decision tree and Markov models, are mainly used to calculate the total costs and total effects. In cost-effectiveness or costutility analyses, cost-effectiveness is evaluated using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, which is the additional cost per one additional unit of effectiveness gained by an intervention compared with a comparator. All outcomes have uncertainties owing to limited evidence, diverse methodologies, and unexplained variation. Thus, researchers should review these uncertainties and confirm their robustness. We hope to contribute to the establishment and dissemination of economic evaluation methodologies that reflect Korean clinical and research environment and ultimately improve the rationality of healthcare policies.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제26권9호
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• pp.1859-1865
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• 2002

In the conventional sliding mode control technique, a priori knowledge of the bound of external disturbances or/and parameter uncertainties is required to assure control robustness. This, however, may not be easy to obtain in practical situation. This work presents a novel methodology, a sliding mode controller with perturbation estimator, which offers a robust control performance without a priori knowledge about the perturbations (disturbances and parameter uncertainties). The proposed technique is featured by an integrated average value of the imposed perturbation over a certain sampling period. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, a two-link robotic system is adopted and its position control performance is evaluated. In addition, a comparative work between the conventional technique and the proposed one is undertaken.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2001년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.206-209
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• 2001

This paper illustrates a new method for reliability evaluation at load points in a composite power system. The algorithm includes uncertainties of generators and transmission lines as well as main transformers at substations. The CMELDC based on the new effective load model at HLII has been developed also. The CMELDC can be obtain from convolution integral processing of the outage capacity probabilistic distribution function of the fictitious generator and the original load duration curve given at the load point. The CMELDC based on the new model at HLII will extend the application areas of nodal probabilistic production cost simulation, outage cost assessment and reliability evaluation etc. at load points. The characteristics and effectiveness of this new model are illustrated by a case study of a small test system.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.433-445
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• 2013

Vibration-based structural identification has become an important tool for structural health monitoring and safety evaluation. However, various kinds of uncertainties (e.g., observation noise) involved in the field test data obstruct automation system identification for accurate and fast structural safety evaluation. A practical way including a data preprocessing procedure and a vector backward auto-regressive (VBAR) method has been investigated for practical bridge identification. The data preprocessing procedure serves to improve the data quality, which consists of multi-level uncertainty mitigation techniques. The VBAR method provides a determinative way to automatically distinguish structural modes from extraneous modes arising from uncertainty. Ambient test data of a cantilever beam is investigated to demonstrate how the proposed method automatically interprets vibration data for structural modal estimation. Especially, structural identification of a truss bridge using field test data is also performed to study the effectiveness of the proposed method for real bridge identification.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2000년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.397-399
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• 2000

This paper presents a method for assessing reliability indices of transmission system. Because successful operation of electric power under the deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management, quantity evaluation of transmission system reliability is very important. The key point idea is based on that the reliability level of transmission system is equal to reliability level difference of between composite power system(HLII) and generation system(HLI). It is sure that risk indices of reliability of composite power system are larger than those of generation system. It is the reason that composite power system includes uncertainties and capacity limit of transmission lines. The characteristics and effectiveness of this methodology are illustrated by the case study using MRBTS.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2003년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.42-45
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• 2003

This paper presents a method for assessing reliability indices of transmission system. Because successful operation of electric power under the deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management, quantity evaluation of transmission system reliability is very important. The key point idea is based on that the reliability level of transmission system is equal to reliability level difference of between composite power system(HLII) and generation system(HLI). It is the reason that composite power system includes uncertainties and capacity limit of transmission lines. The practicality and effectiveness of this methodology are illustrated by the case study using the KEPCO size system.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2005

본 연구에서는 고속철도 강합성형 교통비 동적해석에 기반한 피로신뢰성평가 기법을 제시하고 동조질량감쇠기의 효과를 피로수명연장 측면에서 검토하였다. 피로 신뢰성 평가를 수행하기 위하여 S-N 곡선 및 선형누적손상이론을 이용하여 한계상태식을 설정하였다. 열차 속도와 교량 감쇠비의 불확실성을 고려하여 교량에 대한 반복적인 동적해석을 수행하고, 이 결과로부터 전체 교량수명동안에 교량이 받는 피로 손상도와 연관된 확률변수의 특성을 통계적으로 추정하였다. 최종적으로 결정된 확률변수와 한계상태식에 개선된 일계이차모멘트법(AFOSM)을 적용하여 피로 신뢰도 지수를 산정하였다. 40m 지간 강합성교량의 수치모사로부터 동조질량감쇠기 장착여부에 따라 피로 신뢰도 지수를 평가하고 그 결과를 제시하였다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.243-262
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• 2015

Optimal sensor placement (OSP) is a critical issue in construction and implementation of a sophisticated structural health monitoring (SHM) system. The uncertainties in the identified structural parameters based on the measured data may dramatically reduce the reliability of the condition evaluation results. In this paper, the information entropy, which provides an uncertainty metric for the identified structural parameters, is adopted as the performance measure for a sensor configuration, and the OSP problem is formulated as the multi-objective optimization problem of extracting the Pareto optimal sensor configurations that simultaneously minimize the appropriately defined information entropy indices. The nondirective movement glowworm swarm optimization (NMGSO) algorithm (based on the basic glowworm swarm optimization (GSO) algorithm) is proposed for identifying the effective Pareto optimal sensor configurations. The one-dimensional binary coding system is introduced to code the glowworms instead of the real vector coding method. The Hamming distance is employed to describe the divergence of different glowworms. The luciferin level of the glowworm is defined as a function of the rank value (RV) and the crowding distance (CD), which are deduced by non-dominated sorting. In addition, nondirective movement is developed to relocate the glowworms. A numerical simulation of a long-span suspension bridge is performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NMGSO algorithm. The results indicate that the NMGSO algorithm is capable of capturing the Pareto optimal sensor configurations with high accuracy and efficiency.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.663-672
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• 2001

Numerous failures in welded connections in steel moment-resisting building frames (SMRF) were observed when buildings were inspected after the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. These observations raised concerns about the effectiveness of such frames for resisting strong earthquake ground motions. The behavior of SMRFs during an earthquake must be assessed using nonlinear dynamic analysis, and such assessments must permit the deterioration in connection strength to capture the behavior of the frame. The uncertainties that underlie both structural and dynamic loading also need to be included in the analysis process. This paper describes the analysis of one of approximately 200 SMRFs that suffered damage to its welded beam-to-column connections from the Northridge Earthquake is evaluated. Nonlinear static and dynamic analysis of this SMRF in the time domain is performed using ground motions representing the Northridge Earthquake. Subsequently, a detailed uncertainty analysis is conducted for the building using an ensemble of earthquake ground motions. Probability distributions for deformation-related limit states, described in terms of maximum roof displacement or interstory drift, are constructed. Building fragilities that are useful for condition assessment of damaged building structures and for performance-based design are developed from these distributions.