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Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

Christian Educational Proposals for Revitalizing Research on North Korea's 'education' (북한 '교육' 연구 활성화를 위한 기독교교육적 제언)

  • Ham, Seung su
    • Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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    • v.71
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    • pp.305-340
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    • 2022
  • This study was started to suggest the direction of Christian educational development to revitalize North Korea's 'education' research. Since the two Koreas have experienced heterogeneity in almost all elements of society, such as politics, economy, society, culture, and education, during the period of division in 1977, true unification depends on laying the foundation for social integration that can overcome the sense of heterogeneity between the two Koreas. This is why North Korea's "education" research is needed. Education is the foundation for transferring culture and history, and for bringing about the survival, transformation, and community of society and since it is the mission of Korean churches and Christian educators to establish the direction of North Korean "education" research, North Korean "education" research is very important. Despite this importance, 'North Korean research' in the field of Christian education has not been properly conducted. Research on the "Christian Unification Education Program" that can be used in churches is actively taking place, but research on the macro level of presenting post-unification education blueprints is rare. This study was started to suggest the direction of Christian educational development to revitalize North Korea's 'education' research. For the study, the characteristics of 'North Korea Research' were analyzed according to generational classification. As a result of the study, recent research on North Korea has been expanding in research topics and methodologies, and recent studies have been differentiated into microscopic studies that deviate from existing research trends at a macro level and view North Korea's daily life. The characteristics of 'North Korean education research' are summarized by period. The research on North Korean education, which began in earnest in the 1970s, was divided into the period of start(70s), transition(80s), leap(90s), expansion(2000s), and development(2010s~). and research characteristics for each period were analyzed. Through this, early North Korean education research was also conducted in the policy aspect of the country, and the characteristics of political and social studies were strong, but recent studies have confirmed that the subjects and contents are diversifying. Based on these studies, the pending issues and issues of North Korean education research in the field of Christian education were analyzed. The study of North Korea in the field of Christian education, which began in the 1980s, has been conducted in the engineering aspect of 'development of unification education programs for churches'. However, studies on Christian unification education and North Korean education itself, which can be used in public education sites including Christian schools, have yet to be sufficient. Nevertheless, the diversification of research in the field of Christian education can be evaluated as a positive change. Based on these studies, it was proposed to establish a de-ideological research foundation, secure primary research data(Raw Data), activate research topics and research methodologies, and strengthen research capabilities in the direction of development to revitalize North Korean research in the field of Christian education. I hope this study will trigger various follow-up studies and help Korean churches that must achieve unification.

Comparative Analysis in Visitors' Perception of Aftermath of the Country's Garden Exposition- Focused on the 2013 Suncheon Bay International Garden Expo, 2015 Seoul Garden Expo, and 2022 Goyang International Flower Fair - (국내정원박람회 개최 효과에 대한 방문객 인식 비교 연구 - 2013 순천만국제정원박람회, 2015 서울정원박람회, 2022 고양국제꽃박람회를 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Tai-Won;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.58-69
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    • 2022
  • This study compares and analyses the impacts of holding domestic garden expos that will be fundamental for holding garden expos in the future. Satisfaction with the three sites of the 2013 Suncheon Bay International Gardening Expo, 2015 Seoul Gardening Expo, and 2022 Goyang International Flower Fair, as well as factors affecting the satisfaction in economic, social/cultural, environment/ecology, and operation aspects, were analyzed. As a result of the study, the satisfaction level of all three sites was high, with a value of 3.5 or higher. In particular, satisfaction with the 2013 Suncheon Bay International Gardening Expo was the highest. It was found that there was a difference between the satisfaction level of the 2013 Suncheon Bay International Gardening Expo and the 2015 Seoul Gardening Expo. As a regional festival, the 2013 Suncheon Bay International Garden Expo has acquired a high status due to the 'Suncheon Bay Garden' being designated as the first National Garden. It is thought that great satisfaction was obtained because economic, social, cultural, and environmental revitalization was achieved by matching the values of citizen participation and ecological conservation. As a result of the comparison of perception types affecting the satisfaction by garden fair, satisfaction at the 2013 Suncheon Bay International Gardening Expo and the 2015 Seoul Gardening Expo, it was found that both affected all four aspects. The 2022 Goyang International Flower Fair did not affect satisfaction in the operational aspect. This seems to be because the Goyang International Flower Fair is already a fixed local brand. As a result of analyzing the detailed factors of perception that affect satisfaction, the three target sites were commonly analyzed, including social and cultural factors, which attract cultural events, improve pride and affection for the region, and help educate children. In terms of environmental and ecological factors were analyzed as an inconvenience in life due to traffic congestion. It can be seen that it has the same meaning as the comparative analysis of the difference in factors on the satisfaction of the target site. There is no difference in the effect on satisfaction in terms of social·cultural, and environmental·ecological aspects, but there are differences in terms of economy and operation. Based on the analysis results of this study, to hold a domestic garden expo in the future, it is necessary to properly utilize "environmental" and "ecological" garden aspects that have potential values according to the region's characteristics to develop sustainable, eco-friendly tourism resources. In addition, values will be more apparent when cultural and artistic programs are planned to establish a differentiated identity in the host area and are appropriately used as a marketing means for a local fair. A well-planned local festival through communication with local residents can affect the image of the region and lead to the revitalization of the local communities by securing urban competitiveness along with the establishment of urban brands, so it can be said that local residents' participation and national or local organizations' cooperation is essential.

Information types and characteristics within the Wireless Emergency Alert in COVID-19: Focusing on Wireless Emergency Alerts in Seoul (코로나 19 하에서 재난문자 내의 정보유형 및 특성: 서울특별시 재난문자를 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Sungwook;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.45-68
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    • 2022
  • The central and local governments of the Republic of Korea provided information necessary for disaster response through wireless emergency alerts (WEAs) in order to overcome the pandemic situation in which COVID-19 rapidly spreads. Among all channels for delivering disaster information, wireless emergency alert is the most efficient, and since it adopts the CBS(Cell Broadcast Service) method that broadcasts directly to the mobile phone, it has the advantage of being able to easily access disaster information through the mobile phone without the effort of searching. In this study, the characteristics of wireless emergency alerts sent to Seoul during the past year and one month (January 2020 to January 2021) were derived through various text mining methodologies, and various types of information contained in wireless emergency alerts were analyzed. In addition, it was confirmed through the population mobility by age in the districts of Seoul that what kind of influence it had on the movement behavior of people. After going through the process of classifying key words and information included in each character, text analysis was performed so that individual sent characters can be used as an analysis unit by applying a document cluster analysis technique based on the included words. The number of WEAs sent to the Seoul has grown dramatically since the spread of Covid-19. In January 2020, only 10 WEAs were sent to the Seoul, but the number of the WEAs increased 5 times in March, and 7.7 times over the previous months. Since the basic, regional local government were authorized to send wireless emergency alerts independently, the sending behavior of related to wireless emergency alerts are different for each local government. Although most of the basic local governments increased the transmission of WEAs as the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 increases, the trend of the increase in WEAs according to the increase in the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 was different by region. By using structured econometric model, the effect of disaster information included in wireless emergency alerts on population mobility was measured by dividing it into baseline effect and accumulating effect. Six types of disaster information, including date, order, online URL, symptom, location, normative guidance, were identified in WEAs and analyzed through econometric modelling. It was confirmed that the types of information that significantly change population mobility by age are different. Population mobility of people in their 60s and 70s decreased when wireless emergency alerts included information related to date and order. As date and order information is appeared in WEAs when they intend to give information about Covid-19 confirmed cases, these results show that the population mobility of higher ages decreased as they reacted to the messages reporting of confirmed cases of Covid-19. Online information (URL) decreased the population mobility of in their 20s, and information related to symptoms reduced the population mobility of people in their 30s. On the other hand, it was confirmed that normative words that including the meaning of encouraging compliance with quarantine policies did not cause significant changes in the population mobility of all ages. This means that only meaningful information which is useful for disaster response should be included in the wireless emergency alerts. Repeated sending of wireless emergency alerts reduces the magnitude of the impact of disaster information on population mobility. It proves indirectly that under the prolonged pandemic, people started to feel tired of getting repetitive WEAs with similar content and started to react less. In order to effectively use WEAs for quarantine and overcoming disaster situations, it is necessary to reduce the fatigue of the people who receive WEA by sending them only in necessary situations, and to raise awareness of WEAs.

The Creating Situations and Social Characteristics of Gutchum-pan to Pray - Focused on Donghaeanbyulsingut - ('축원-굿춤' 판의 생성 국면과 사회적 성격 - 동해안별신굿의 경우 -)

  • Jeon, Seong-Hee
    • (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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    • no.38
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    • pp.349-383
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    • 2019
  • This discussion is focused on Donghaeanbyulsingut's 'gutchum-pan to pray'. 'Gutchum-pan to pray' is repeated in almost all of the geori in Byulsingut, so it is a crucial chum-pan that can never be disregarded in understanding Byulsingutchum. Meanwhile, it supposes that Donghaeanbyulsingut is grounded on the activity of producing 'praying (words) and dance (motions)' within its relationship with the structure of capitalistic society along with the context of traditional rituals. The motion that is newly generated as a response to the concrete expression of 'praying' conducted by a mudang (a shaman), that is, the expression coming from the inside associated with the praying is seen as gutchum. This dance is bound to be in competition and interest among shaman groups, and they tend to influence one another. If praying leads to dance, a mudang can gain profits from capital as well as the value of labor. When the mudang succeeds in forming a bigger bond of sympathy with her praying, the object of praying gets more eager to select byulbi and dances a heoteunchum (impromptu dance) more vigorously. This means that a mudang's ability to perform a ritual is associated with the object of praying's consumption. With his impromptu motions, the object of praying comes to go into 'the field of consumption' within the structure of capitalistic competition before he is aware of it. Behind the communication that praying leads to dance, a lot of things are associated with one another organically. 'Gutchum-pan to pray' is generated by the continuous movement of diversity and unity that the time has within the ritual of the mudang and the object of praying. It continues to create the future 'self' that is different from the present 'self', and it means that he expects variability from the present 'self' through 'gutchum-pan to pray'. The mudang also prays for him arranging the variability of the other (the object of praying) inside her labor. In a big picture, of course, the mudang expects the variability of herself, too, which is connected to the value of her labor. The variability that they expect forms a crucial axis that determines where the flow of time and space that the 'gutchum-pan to pray' has is directed to. The contents of praying are directly related with the villagers' lives, and what leads to dance is mostly related with their jobs. This implies that what the mudang experiences in her everyday consuming activity is directly associated with the villagers' activity for earning money. In other words, the contents of that praying change constantly according to the flow of capitalistic economy. Also, those striving to respond to it before anyone else also expect better life for them by substituting their self to the 'gutchum-pan to pray' eagerly. If so, who are the ones that generate 'gutchum-pan to pray'? This can be understood through relationship among mudangs, relationship between the mudang and villagers, and also relationship among villagers. Their relationships can never be free from the concepts like labor in capitalistic society, consumption and expenditure, or time; therefore, they come to compete with the other, the present self, or the better self within the diverse relationships. This gets to be expressed in any ways, words or motions. And the range that covers the creation of either group or individual 'gutchum-pan to pray' in the village is the village community. Outside the range, it is upsized to the competition of the village unit, so individual praying may become diminished more easily. Although mudangs pray in each geori, it does not mean all praying leads to dance. Within various relationships between mudangs and villagers, 'gutchum-pan to pray' comes to be generated, repeated, and extinct. As it is mitigated to more positive competition, it does not lead to gutchum any longer. In other words, repeating 'gutchum-pan to pray' previously created has turned the object of praying into the state different from the former. Also, the two groups both have experienced the last step of Byulsingut, and at that point, praying does no longer lead to dance. In other words, from the position of the shaman group, it is the finish of their labor time and ritual performance, and from the perspective of the villagers, it means the finish of consuming activity and participation in a ritual. The characteristics of 'gutchum-pan to pray' can be summarized as follows. First, it goes through the following process: competition in the village group → competition in the group → competition among individuals. Second, repeated praying does not lead to 'gutchum'. Third, in the cases of praying for each of the occupation groups, the mudang can induce a bond of sympathy from the objects of praying directly, and this lead to dance. Fourth, the group that fails in being included in the category of praying gets to be alienated from 'gutchum-pan to pray' repeatedly.

Qualitative Research on Korean Baby-Boomer Generation Middle-Aged Women's Attitude Toward Their Lives - Based on Middle-Class Seoul Residents - (한국의 베이비부머세대 중년여성이 삶에서 추구하는 가치에 대한 질적연구 - 서울 거주 중산층을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Ji Hyun;Kim, Sun Woo
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.127-156
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    • 2012
  • A lot of interest in the baby-boomer generation, those who were born after World War II, has emerged since their retirement has been accelerated. The retirement of baby-boomers has caused many health, public welfare, social policy and family relationship problems. However, their increased purchasing power has made them more attractive consumers than any other generation, and they have become a fascinating niche market in the depressed economy. This research selected middle-class women of the baby-boomer generation who have had powerful effects on society and have emerged as an attractive niche market, and attempted to understand their lives intensively. Based on research activities, the purpose of this research is to identify baby-boomer generation middle-aged women's life values. Qualitative research methodology was used to achieve research objectives, and this research aimed to suggest marketing implications to connected industries based on the research results. The research objectives are as follows. 1. understanding the lives of baby-boomer middle-class women who have powerful effects on socio-economic phenomena 2. identifying the life values of baby-boomer middle-class women 3. generating marketing implications based on an understanding of baby-boomer middle-class women's lives and life values This research conducted FGIs(focus group interviews), one of the qualitative research methodologies, to figure out baby-boomer middle-class women's life values intensively and selected 10 women living in Seoul for data collection. The qualitative data of collected FGIs were analyzed with spiral data analysis methodology proposed by Creswell(2007). The most effective factors to influence these middle-class women's lives powerfully were 'time' and 'independence'. Their consciousness of the importance of using time affects their life pattern generally, and their independence also impacts greatly on the way they exploit time and on their diverse relationships. They maximized their self-realization and showed long-term partnership with their surrounding circumstances because of those effective factors. Baby-boomer middle-class women's self-realization was divided into two areas. One was their outside activities and another was perfect management of their physical appearance and home interior. Like the results of this research, their need for social entrance will be reinforced more strongly since their internal and external activities aim for the achievement of self-realization. In addition, this research suggests that baby-boomer middle-class women's activities are connected with their management of their physical appearance and home interior decorations, and that such management is caused not only by a simple interest in fashion and beauty but also a profound desire for self-realization. On account of their consciousness, which is different from other generations, Korean baby-boomer middle-class women are able to maintain positive partnerships with their surrounding circumstances; however, they also show ambivalent emotions to retain effective partnerships. To overcome those stressful situations, they make greater efforts to keep up their health and youth, and also engage in diverse activities to maintain their mental health. Finally, they generate positive attitudes toward their economic situation and extra time to develop self-realization and pursue happy, youthful and healthy lives. Based on those results, this study suggests the following implications. First, industries targeting the baby-boomer generation should develop innovative products and services which help the baby-boomer generation maximize their efficiency of time since time is one of the most important factors powerfully impacting the baby-boomer generation. They will engage in various activities to fill up their extra time and consume helpful products and services. Second, such industries should supply the baby-boomer generation with opportunities which propose new ways of self-realization since this generation shows a great desire for self-realization because of their self-efficacy. With customized strategies of satisfying their needs, the baby-boomer generation would discover opportunities to utilize their abilities, relationships and aesthetic senses, and industries would develop a niche market. Third, market segmentations which target the baby-boomer generation's desire to maintain their physical appearance and home interior should be executed since such activities are the main strategies to develop this generation's self-realization. The baby-boomer generation's desire to study those areas would be expanded, and those education systems should produce innovative products and services targeting the baby-boomer generation. This implication also offers to government officials new policies related with the baby-boomer generation. This exploratory study utilized qualitative research methodology to understand baby-boomer middle-class women's lives, and proposed propositions and limitations for further researches. As for the limitations, first, it is hard to generalize the research results so that they may apply to all areas and economic classes of the baby-boomer generation since this research selected only 10 women living in Seoul for the data collection process. To overcome this limitation, extended data collections of subjects from diverse regions and economic classes should be designed. Second, quantitative research should be conducted to supplement the findings with validities. Third, this research focused on only general ideas of the baby-boomer generation's lives since the range of this study was focused on their overall lives. Therefore, intensive research related to specific areas of their lives should be conducted.

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A Study on the Market Structure Analysis for Durable Goods Using Consideration Set:An Exploratory Approach for Automotive Market (고려상표군을 이용한 내구재 시장구조 분석에 관한 연구: 자동차 시장에 대한 탐색적 분석방법)

  • Lee, Seokoo
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.157-176
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    • 2012
  • Brand switching data frequently used in market structure analysis is adequate to analyze non- durable goods, because it can capture competition between specific two brands. But brand switching data sometimes can not be used to analyze goods like automobiles having long term duration because one of main assumptions that consumer preference toward brand attributes is not changed against time can be violated. Therefore a new type of data which can precisely capture competition among durable goods is needed. Another problem of using brand switching data collected from actual purchase behavior is short of explanation why consumers consider different set of brands. Considering above problems, main purpose of this study is to analyze market structure for durable goods with consideration set. The author uses exploratory approach and latent class clustering to identify market structure based on heterogeneous consideration set among consumers. Then the relationship between some factors and consideration set formation is analyzed. Some benefits and two demographic variables - age and income - are selected as factors based on consumer behavior theory. The author analyzed USA automotive market with top 11 brands using exploratory approach and latent class clustering. 2,500 respondents are randomly selected from the total sample and used for analysis. Six models concerning market structure are established to test. Model 1 means non-structured market and model 6 means market structure composed of six sub-markets. It is exploratory approach because any hypothetical market structure is not defined. The result showed that model 1 is insufficient to fit data. It implies that USA automotive market is a structured market. Model 3 with three market structures is significant and identified as the optimal market structure in USA automotive market. Three sub markets are named as USA brands, Asian Brands, and European Brands. And it implies that country of origin effect may exist in USA automotive market. Comparison between modal classification by derived market structures and probabilistic classification by research model was conducted to test how model 3 can correctly classify respondents. The model classify 97% of respondents exactly. The result of this study is different from those of previous research. Previous research used confirmatory approach. Car type and price were chosen as criteria for market structuring and car type-price structure was revealed as the optimal structure for USA automotive market. But this research used exploratory approach without hypothetical market structures. It is not concluded yet which approach is superior. For confirmatory approach, hypothetical market structures should be established exhaustively, because the optimal market structure is selected among hypothetical structures. On the other hand, exploratory approach has a potential problem that validity for derived optimal market structure is somewhat difficult to verify. There also exist market boundary difference between this research and previous research. While previous research analyzed seven car brands, this research analyzed eleven car brands. Both researches seemed to represent entire car market, because cumulative market shares for analyzed brands exceeds 50%. But market boundary difference might affect the different results. Though both researches showed different results, it is obvious that country of origin effect among brands should be considered as important criteria to analyze USA automotive market structure. This research tried to explain heterogeneity of consideration sets among consumers using benefits and two demographic factors, sex and income. Benefit works as a key variable for consumer decision process, and also works as an important criterion in market segmentation. Three factors - trust/safety, image/fun to drive, and economy - are identified among nine benefit related measure. Then the relationship between market structures and independent variables is analyzed using multinomial regression. Independent variables are three benefit factors and two demographic factors. The result showed that all independent variables can be used to explain why there exist different market structures in USA automotive market. For example, a male consumer who perceives all benefits important and has lower income tends to consider domestic brands more than European brands. And the result also showed benefits, sex, and income have an effect to consideration set formation. Though it is generally perceived that a consumer who has higher income is likely to purchase a high priced car, it is notable that American consumers perceived benefits of domestic brands much positive regardless of income. Male consumers especially showed higher loyalty for domestic brands. Managerial implications of this research are as follow. Though implication may be confined to the USA automotive market, the effect of sex on automotive buying behavior should be analyzed. The automotive market is traditionally conceived as male consumers oriented market. But the proportion of female consumers has grown over the years in the automotive market. It is natural outcome that Volvo and Hyundai motors recently developed new cars which are targeted for women market. Secondly, the model used in this research can be applied easier than that of previous researches. Exploratory approach has many advantages except difficulty to apply for practice, because it tends to accompany with complicated model and to require various types of data. The data needed for the model in this research are a few items such as purchased brands, consideration set, some benefits, and some demographic factors and easy to collect from consumers.

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An Exploratory Study on the Competition Patterns Between Internet Sites in Korea (한국 인터넷사이트들의 산업별 경쟁유형에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Park, Yoonseo;Kim, Yongsik
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.79-111
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    • 2011
  • Digital economy has grown rapidly so that the new business area called 'Internet business' has been dramatically extended as time goes on. However, in the case of Internet business, market shares of individual companies seem to fluctuate very extremely. Thus marketing managers who operate the Internet sites have seriously observed the competition structure of the Internet business market and carefully analyzed the competitors' behavior in order to achieve their own business goals in the market. The newly created Internet business might differ from the offline ones in management styles, because it has totally different business circumstances when compared with the existing offline businesses. Thus, there should be a lot of researches for finding the solutions about what the features of Internet business are and how the management style of those Internet business companies should be changed. Most marketing literatures related to the Internet business have focused on individual business markets. Specifically, many researchers have studied the Internet portal sites and the Internet shopping mall sites, which are the most general forms of Internet business. On the other hand, this study focuses on the entire Internet business industry to understand the competitive circumstance of online market. This approach makes it possible not only to have a broader view to comprehend overall e-business industry, but also to understand the differences in competition structures among Internet business markets. We used time-series data of Internet connection rates by consumers as the basic data to figure out the competition patterns in the Internet business markets. Specifically, the data for this research was obtained from one of Internet ranking sites, 'Fian'. The Internet business ranking data is obtained based on web surfing record of some pre-selected sample group where the possibility of double-count for page-views is controlled by method of same IP check. The ranking site offers several data which are very useful for comparison and analysis of competitive sites. The Fian site divides the Internet business areas into 34 area and offers market shares of big 5 sites which are on high rank in each category daily. We collected the daily market share data about Internet sites on each area from April 22, 2008 to August 5, 2008, where some errors of data was found and 30 business area data were finally used for our research after the data purification. This study performed several empirical analyses in focusing on market shares of each site to understand the competition among sites in Internet business of Korea. We tried to perform more statistically precise analysis for looking into business fields with similar competitive structures by applying the cluster analysis to the data. The research results are as follows. First, the leading sites in each area were classified into three groups based on averages and standard deviations of daily market shares. The first group includes the sites with the lowest market shares, which give more increased convenience to consumers by offering the Internet sites as complimentary services for existing offline services. The second group includes sites with medium level of market shares, where the site users are limited to specific small group. The third group includes sites with the highest market shares, which usually require online registration in advance and have difficulty in switching to another site. Second, we analyzed the second place sites in each business area because it may help us understand the competitive power of the strongest competitor against the leading site. The second place sites in each business area were classified into four groups based on averages and standard deviations of daily market shares. The four groups are the sites showing consistent inferiority compared to the leading sites, the sites with relatively high volatility and medium level of shares, the sites with relatively low volatility and medium level of shares, the sites with relatively low volatility and high level of shares whose gaps are not big compared to the leading sites. Except 'web agency' area, these second place sites show relatively stable shares below 0.1 point of standard deviation. Third, we also classified the types of relative strength between leading sites and the second place sites by applying the cluster analysis to the gap values of market shares between two sites. They were also classified into four groups, the sites with the relatively lowest gaps even though the values of standard deviation are various, the sites with under the average level of gaps, the sites with over the average level of gaps, the sites with the relatively higher gaps and lower volatility. Then we also found that while the areas with relatively bigger gap values usually have smaller standard deviation values, the areas with very small differences between the first and the second sites have a wider range of standard deviation values. The practical and theoretical implications of this study are as follows. First, the result of this study might provide the current market participants with the useful information to understand the competitive circumstance of the market and build the effective new business strategy for the market success. Also it might be useful to help new potential companies find a new business area and set up successful competitive strategies. Second, it might help Internet marketing researchers take a macro view of the overall Internet market so that make possible to begin the new studies on overall Internet market beyond individual Internet market studies.

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Changes in Exhibitions on the History of Balhae in Russian Museums and the Characteristics of Exhibition Narratives - with the focus on the Federal State Budgetary Institution of Culture "The Vladimir K. Arseniev Museum and Reserve of Far East History" - (러시아 박물관의 발해사 전시 변화와 전시 내러티브의 특징 - 아르세니예프 V.K. 국립극동역사보호지구 통합박물관을 중심으로 -)

  • JEONG Yoonhee
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.54-79
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this research is to fill the vacuum created by the tendency of bias towards China among the curators of Korean museums who plan exhibitions focusing on Balhae, and to share with researchers in the countries concerned various supplementary research materials that could deepen their understanding of the history of Balhae. These materials are based on analyses of the details of exhibitions about Balhae held in a particular Russian museum and the characteristics of and changes in the museum's operational policy. Thus, this research focuses mainly on the permanent and special exhibitions held by the Far East History Museum and Reserve, whose collection represents the archaeological achievements of Russia regarding the history of Balhae. The first part of the research focuses on the layout of the exhibitions presented by the museum and the museum's operational policy. It reveals that the museum's permanent exhibitions follow a diachronic arrangement of the local history, while the first and second special exhibitions featured exhibits that were selected from the collections of the Russian Academy of Sciences and arranged according to specific themes. It also examines the museum's policy for operating the exhibitions, focusing on the operational rules, the human resources deployed to run them, and the related educational and PR programs. The second part of the research examines such issues as local politics, economy, education and culture related to the exhibitions on Balhae's history, and connects them to the background and development of the exhibitions. This study reveals that the permanent exhibitions were intended to promote historical awareness of the local area by museum visitors, particularly those who visited the exhibitions while the city was hosting important events such as international summits. It also reveals that the museum's first special exhibition led to the promotion of Korea-Russia cooperation on exchanges in the fields of culture and tourism, whereas the second special exhibition involved no PR efforts or related events, which was probably due to the changes that have occurred in the relationship between Russia and its neighboring countries since then. The final part of the study focuses on the characteristic features of the exhibition narratives, and compares school textbooks on local history and history books for general readers with the contents of the exhibitions. The analysis of the narratives based on the development of time shows that the history of the Mohe (or Malgal) tribes has been combined with that of Balhae, while they are treated separately in school textbooks. As regards political history, the narrative was largely focused on officials in Balhae's central government rather than on Mohe warriors in the border areas. The maps of Balhae presented in the exhibitions highlight the importance of accumulating empirical data. As for the exhibition of material cultures, this study suggests that the museums should obtain more archaeological floral and faunal remains related with agriculture and hunting. It also points out that the narrative on the theme of foreign relations deals with the archaeological relics of Unified Silla together with those of the Turkic tribes. As for the theme of philosophy and culture, the narrative focused on the state ceremonies and rituals of Goguryeo, a theme that has attracted little attention among Korean academic circles and which consequently requires further study. In conclusion, this study is meaningful in that it suggests a number of research topics regarding the development of exhibitions and exhibition narratives about the history of Balhae by a prestigious Russian museum that specializes in this subject.

Studies on Dairy Farming Status, Reproductive Efficiencies and Disorders in New Zealand (I) A Survey on Dairy Farming Status and Milk Yield in Palmerston North Area (뉴질랜드 (Palmerston North) 의 낙농 현황과 번식 및 번식장해에 관한 연구(I) Palmerston North 지역의 낙농 현황과 우유 생산량에 관한 조사 연구)

  • 김중계;맥도날드
    • Korean Journal of Animal Reproduction
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2000
  • Eighty dairy farms in Palmers ton North area in New Zealand were surveyed on 1) general characteristics (10 Questions), 2) milk yield and feed supplementary (7 questions), 3) reproductive efficiencies (12 questions) and 4) reproductive disorders (12 questions) by mail questions from February to July, 1998. Among those 4 items from 38 dairy farms (47.5%), especially in items 1) and 2), overall dairy farming situation, supplementary feeding and milk yields were surveyed and analyzed for Korean dairy farmers (especially in Cheju island) to have better understanding or higher economical gains. The results were as follows. 1. In dairy experience, 21 (45%) among 38 dairy farms surveyed were answered that farming less than 15 years, 15~19 year, 20~25 years and over 26 years experience were 3 (7.9%), 7 (18.4%), 6 (15.8%) and 5 (13.2%) which generally showed longer experience compare to Korean dairy farming situation. In survey of labour input and business goal of dairy farming, self-managing farms, sharemilkers, unpaid family manpowering farms, manager running farms, farms with hired worker, farms with part time helper and other type was 21 (55.3%), 10 (26.3%), 2 (3.5%), 3 (5.3%), 18 (31.6%), 2 (3.5%), and 1 (1.8%), respectively. 2. Analyzing pasture and tillable land, pasture according to feeding scale (200, 300 and 400 heads) were 56, 90 and 165.3 ha, and tillable lands were 51, 78 and 165 ha which showed some differences among feeding scale. In recording methods in 38 farms replied, 36 (95%) dairy handbook and 23 (70%) dual methods taking farms were higher than that of 10 (26.3%) computer and 15(39.5%) well-recorder methods. 3. Dairy waste processing facilities in environmental field were almost perfect except of metropolitan area, and so no problem was developed in its control so far. Hence, 26 farm (68.4%) of pond system was higher rather than those in 8 (21.2%) of using as organic manure after storing feces of dairy cattle, 1(2.6%) bunker system and 3 (7.9%) other type farms. 4. In milking facilities, 33 farms (86.9%) of Harringbone types were higher than those in 3 (7.9%) of Walkthrough types, 1 (2.6%) of Rotary system and other types. Although the construction facilities was not enough, this system show the world-leveled dairy country to attempted to elevate economic gains using the advantage of climatic condition. 5. In milking day and yearly yield per head, average 275 milking days and 87 drying days were longer than that of 228 average milking days in New Zealand. Annual total milk yield per head and milk solid (ms) was 3,990 kg and approximately 319 kg. Dairy milk solid (ms) per head, milk yield, fat percentage was 1.2 kg, 15.5 kg and average 4.83% which was much higher than in other country, and milk protein was average 3.75%. 6. In coclusion, Palmerstone North has been a center of dairy farming in New Zealand for the last 21 years. Their dairy farming history is 6~9 year longer than ours and the average number of milking cows per farm is 355, which is much greater than that (35) of Korea. They do not have dairy barn, but only milking parlors. Cows are taken care of by family 0.5 persons), are on a planned calving schedule in spring (93%) and milked for 240~280 days a year, avoiding winter. Cows are dried according to milk yield and body condition score. This management system is quite different from that of Korean dairy farms. Cows are not fed concentrates, relying entirely on pasture forages and the average milk yield per cow is 3,500 kg, which is about 1/2 milk yield of Korean dairy farms. They were bred to produce high fat milk with an average of 4.5%. Their milk production cost is the lowest in the world and the country's economy relies heavily on milk production. We Korean farmers may try to increase farming size, decreasing labor and management costs.

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