• International Area Studies Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.53-73
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• 2012

In this study we investigate the ability of the yield spread to predict economic recessions in two Asian economies. For our purpose we use the data from two emerging economies (South Korea and Thailand) that are also known for their openness in terms of exports and imports. We employ both two-regime Markov-Switching model (MS) and three-regime MS model to estimate the probability of recessions during Asian crisis. We found that the yield spread is confirmed to be a reliable recession predictor for Thailand but not for South Korea. The three-regime MS model is better for capturing the Asian financial crisis than two-regime MS model. We also tried to find the duration of economic expansions and recessions. We tested the hypothesis of asymmetric movements of business cycles. The MS results are also compared with that of the standard probit model for comparison. The MS model does not significantly improve the forecasting ability of the yield spread in forecasting business cycles.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.142-149
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• 2022

This study attempts to analyze the economic impact of the service robot industry using Input-Output analysis, which is conducted based on Demand-driven model, the Leontief price model, the Backward and Forward Linkage Effects, and the Exogenous Methods. In a Demand-driven model analysis, we can conclude that the service robot industry contains characteristics of both the manufacturing industry and the service industry, which causes a positive impact on the overall industry by compensating for the weaknesses of the two industries. The Leontief price analysis indicates when wages in the service robot industry increase, prices related to robot manufacturing also increase. Also, when profits in the service robot industry increase, prices related to service provision increase, too. The Backward and Forward Linkage Effects analysis shows that the service robot industry is highly sensitive to the current economic condition and has a great influence on the service industry. The service robot industry can highlight the aspect of service characteristics when the manufacturing industry is in recession and vice versa. In addition, the service robot industry can be regarded as a value-adding and domestic economy promoting industry which utilizes knowledge of information and communication technologies. It is important to foster the service robot industry in South Korea, which is in economic recession to provide an opportunity to stimulate the growth of both service and robot industries.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.8
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• pp.681-693
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• 2020

This study sees a critical gap in the previous body of research, which it seeks to fill; the disclosure of the unemployment ratio correlation has only been measured by the level of economic growth. This study is to add investment variables and government expenditure variables that objectively aim to measure the level of effectiveness in handling the unemployment ratio, which is then a measurement of the effectiveness of unemployment. Economic growth is measured by its impact on income inequality through empirical, conceptual relationships as a critical review and economic strategy for the future. The research uses secondary data on Indonesian macro and microeconomics since 2003-2018, then testing uses a quantitative approach to correlation, regression, and scatterplot. The results of this study show correlations between variables, and volatiles on the graphs show a similar trend. In other words, variables are bound together and support each other. The strategy of prioritizing the scale of government expenditure and investment to reach the target is the primary concern, so that the economic cycle can be optimal and equipped to face the possibility of an economic recession in the future. Many factors cause complex income inequality, though investment does not show a correlation to income inequality.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.115-143
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• 2023

In this paper, we address how the monetary authority should react to financial market status and exchange rate movements in a small open economy New Keynesian model with financial frictions due to asymmetric information between savers and borrowers. We show that the small economy with financial frictions is more susceptible to the exogenous shocks under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange regime. The small economy experiences a more prolonged and deeper economic recession under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange rate regime. The monetary policy taking into account external finance premium is better than the interest rate rule without considering the financial market status.

• Journal of the Korea Management Engineers Society
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.49-72
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• 2018

Before the financial crisis of 1997 in Korea, many industrial sectors across the country have achieved remarkable economic growth since the 1970s because of the development of large-scale equipment industries such as civil engineering, steel, construction and chemical industries. However, after the financial crisis, the economic growth rate has slowed down. Also, the global recession and the rise of China in the global business environment have led to a long-term recession in the national industry as a whole. In current economic environment, it is not easy for the companies even having excellent resources to continue its competitive advantage. Moreover, the chemical industry, which has an influence as a basic industry of other industries, misses the point of transformation into a high value-added industry, as shown in previous research. In order to meet the rapidly changing global business environment, Korean chemical companies should have a dynamic capabilities which to rapidly reallocate and consolidate the resources and capabilities they possess. The dynamic capabilities to convert, rearrange and develop the resources possessed by the company in the direction of creating high added value and to promptly search for, absorb, transform and fuse newly required capabilities and resources should be continuously applied to Korean chemical companies. It is the core competence to secure competitive advantage. In order to secure the dynamic capabilities of the company, the dynamic capabilities of individual employees should be strengthened and employees should be able to demonstrate their own leadership so that they can proactively work and self-manage in a positive direction. Previous studies have focused mainly on the dynamic capabilities of firms. However, the competence of the human resources that make up the enterprise leads to the capabilities of the enterprise, and the human resources themselves are also important corporate resources. This paper focuses on the dynamic capabilities of individuals and strives to clarify the causal relationship between dynamic capabilities, self-leadership, and organizational effectiveness which have direct or indirect effects on management outcome. The reasons for choosing the chemical industry are based on the fact that a domestic chemical companies are in a long-term recession, and they lacks a innovation and value creation capabilities. Also, chemical industry has a large impact on the national economy.

• Journal of the Korea Construction Safety Engineering Association
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• s.50
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• pp.71-79
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• 2009

Construction companies economic to lighten the restrictions on safety education and training due to the domestic recession as long as the global downturn. With this, the Korean government restrictions, but the incidents are being sharply increased nowadays. The construction industry hazardous than any others, so, they insist to reinforce the training for incidents prevention, to be disregarded at the subcontractors of the bigger construction companies problems. According to these matters, this study hereby surveyed regarding their suggestions for the improvements of the training concepts through questionnaires below.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.37-41
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• 2020

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the recent resurgence of popularism and the possible impacts it may have on contemporary business and economics. Research design, data and methodology: This is an exploratory case study that examines the rise of popularism and identifies and analyzes the likely implications for contemporary business and economics. Results: Although populists tend to reject elitism, capitalism, economic globalization, and political establishment, their ethnocentric behavior is no different from those of the corrupt political and economic elites. Popularism does enable nationalism and protectionism and negatively impacts business and economic growth. Conclusions: Popularism existed for a long time, and this phenomenon will continue to exist as long as a triggered mechanism exist, e.g., income inequality, resurgence of immigration, recession, insufficient factors of resources and social welfare. The recent rise of popularism is not a fad or a short-lived anti-establishment and anti-elitism movements but, rather, a force to be reckoned with in the near future. The rise of economic nationalism limits international trade, integration, and cooperation. As a result, international capital, service, and product flows will decline, and countries and multinational corporations have to develop and restructure their international supply and value chain to cope with this phenomenon.

• 한국사회정책
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.233-263
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• 2018

This study sought to identify gender-specific mechanisms of increased suicide rates during economic crises in South Korea. In order to address research aims, we focused on two international economic crises: IMF financial crisis in 1997, and international recession in 2008. This study provides three main findings. First, different mechanisms increased suicide rates during the two economic crises. Particularly, the high level of unemployment raised suicide rates during the 1997 IMF while the high level of working poor in the 2008 recession. Second, suicidal risk patterns for men and women differed at each period. The 1997 crisis which mostly affected full-time permanent workers had had relatively greater impacts on men suicide, whereas the 2008 crisis which affected precarious workers had done on women suicide. Finally, our finding indicated that these gender-specific risk patterns had been derived from the gendered labour market and male-friendly social policy. Placing women at the periphery of the labor market and using them as a buffer in times of crisis, governments failed to protect them from their economic difficulties. Suicide is fundamental and important public health and social problems. These findings suggest that the national suicide prevention strategy should pay attention to the social determinants of suicide through gendered as well as population health perspectives.

• Current Industrial and Technological Trends in Aerospace
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.12-22
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• 2010

The great recession which caused by financial crisis made steep rise of oil price and the serious problems of the aircraft industry. High oil price increases operating cost and the recession decreases air traffic. After a period of high book order and delivery from global economic recovery, the aircraft order fell down suddenly. Also the Aircraft price and lease rate deceased and the MRO market is reduced, too. But, the air cargo and passenger increase again since late of 2009. So, it is difficult to predict the market movement, most of the forecasters agreed that the air traffic and aircraft demand will grow gradually in long term with the growth of emerging markets like China, India and Africa. And more efficient, safe and clean aircraft is needed and will need in the market.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.181-200
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• 2022

After the COVID-19 pandemic, a global economic downturn and a recession in the shipping market are expected, it is important for domestic shipping companies to establish appropriate strategy in response to the recession. Accordingly, domestic shipping companies should grow into integrated logistics companies that combine shipping and logistics in the future. And for this purpose, it is necessary to actively promote logistics integration with external shipping and logistics companies. This paper presents the direction of logistics integration for domestic shipping companies to develop as integrated logistics operators with competitiveness in the global shipping market, and presents detailed alternatives. Domestic shipping companies lack the infrastructure such as ships, port terminals, and warehouses, so they have a weak capacity to independently promote logistics integration. At the shipping company level, a logistics integration promotion strategy should be established, and accordingly, logistics infrastructure, service network, and logistics integration operating system should be established. The government should provide tax benefits for logistics integration, financial support for M&As led by domestic shipping companies, a standardized information sharing system, and preparation of educational courses for nurturing digital manpower.