• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.71-102
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• 2020

This study analyzes the effect of demographic changes on economic growth. We use the supply-side output identity to forecast the growth potential of the Korean economy. According to the results, even based on optimistic assumptions and prospects, the economic growth rate is likely to fall drastically starting in 2020. Of course, to maintain growth potential, efforts to increase productivity are necessary. However, given the historical experience of developed countries, it is not clear whether the huge trend of demographic change can be offset by efforts to increase productivity. In the so-called '30-50 club' countries, both labor productivity and growth rate tend to fall after reaching the per capita income of $30,000. The degree of decline in the growth rate is closely related to changes in the working age population and the prime-age workforce. The results are similar when tracking the path of changes in total factor productivities of the economy. When a certain level of income is reached, the increase in total factor productivity also tends to slow down. The ripple effects of rapid changes in demographics will indeed be extensive. The negative impact is likely to be concentrated at a time when the working age population, the prime-age workforce, and the total population shrink simultaneously. Above all, it is necessary to use the government's fiscal space to block the possibility of a rapid fall in the growth rate. In addition, it is important to continuously implement various reform tasks that should be promoted, such as improving the education system and strengthening the social safety net.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.159-163
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• 2013

Background: This study used Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) pancreatic cancer data to identify predictive models and potential socio-economic disparities in pancreatic cancer outcome. Materials and Methods: For risk modeling, Kaplan Meier method was used for cause specific survival analysis. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov's test was used to compare survival curves. The Cox proportional hazard method was applied for multivariate analysis. The area under the ROC curve was computed for predictors of absolute risk of death, optimized to improve efficiency. Results: This study included 58,747 patients. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 7.6 (10.6) months. SEER stage and grade were strongly predictive univariates. Sex, race, and three socio-economic factors (county level family income, rural-urban residence status, and county level education attainment) were independent multivariate predictors. Racial and socio-economic factors were associated with about 2% difference in absolute cause specific survival. Conclusions: This study s found significant effects of socio-economic factors on pancreas cancer outcome. These data may generate hypotheses for trials to eliminate these outcome disparities.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1998.11a
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• pp.253-255
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• 1998

This paper presents the methodology of DSM potential evaluation and estimation of commercial sector in Korea. In general, the estimation process of the potential savings of DSM activities include the determination of baseline electricity consumption, the instantaneous technical potential (ITP), the phased technical potential (PTP), the economic potential (EP), and the achievable potential(AP). The purpose of this paper is to provide evaluation process of those DSM potential savings based on top-down approach and apply it to commercial sector.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.587-602
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• 2011

Improved efficiency in the use of natural resources, pragmatic production systems and environmental sustainability, justified by the need for improved land use systems and increased productivity, are discussed in the context of Asian integrated systems, diversification, and issues of sustainability. The importance of these are reflected by serious inadequate animal protein production throughout Asia, where available supplies cannot match current and projected human requirements up to 2050. Among the ruminant production systems, integrated tree crops-ruminant production systems are grossly underestimated and merit emphasis and expansion. As an example, integrated oil palm- based system is an important pathway for integration with ruminants (buffaloes, cattle, goats and sheep), and provides the entry point for development. The importance and benefits of integrated systems are discussed, involving animals with annual and perennial tree crops, integration with aquaculture, the significance of crop-animal interactions, stratification of the systems, production options, improved use of forages and legumes, potential for enhanced productivity, implications for improved livelihoods of the rural poor and the stability of farm households. The advances in research and development in South East Asia highlight demonstrable increased productivity from animals and meat offtakes, value addition to the oil palm crop, sustainable development, and distinct economic impacts. The results from 12 out of a total of 24 case studies concerning oil palm over the past three decades showed increased yield of 0.49-3.52 mt of fresh fruit bunches (FFB)/ha/yr; increased income by about 30%; savings in weeding costs by 47- 60% equivalent to 21-62 RM/ha/yr; and an internal rate of return of 19% based on actual field data. The results provide important socio-economic benefits for resource-poor small farmers. Potential increased offtakes and additional income exist with the integration of goats. Additionally, the potential for carbon sequestration with tree crops is an advantage. The reasons for low adoption of the syatems are poor awareness of the potential of integrated systems, resistance by the crop- oriented plantation sector, and inadequate technology application. Promoting wider expansion and adoption of the systems in the future is linked directly with coherent policy, institutional commitment, increased investments, private sector involvement, and a stimulus package of incentives.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.743-752
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to estimate the economic evaluation of a smart farm investment for tomatoes and strawberries. In addition, the potential adoption rate of the smart farm was derived for different scenarios. This study analyzed the economic evaluation with the net present value (NPV) method and estimated the adoption potential of the smart farm with the trade-off analysis, minimum data (TOA-MD) model. The results were as follows: The analysis of the net present value shows that the smart farm investment for the two crops are economically feasible, and the minimum prices for the tomatoes and strawberries should be 1,179 and 3,797 won/kg to secure a sufficient economic feasibility for the smart farm investment. Next, the analysis of the potential adoption rates for smart farms through the TOA-MD model showed that when the support ratio for the adoption of a smart farm system was 50% and the price increase rates were, respectively, - 5, 2.5, 0, 2.5, and 5%, the conversion rates for tomato farms to switch to smart farms were 0.97, 1.78, 3.05, 4.91, and 7.47%, while the ratios of the strawberry farms to switch to smart farms were 0.12, 0.29, 0.65, 1.33, and 2.53%, respectively. This study has some known limitations, but it provides useful information on decision making about smart farm adoption and can contribute to government policies on smart farms.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.3-25
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• 2022

East Asia's Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into force in 2022 as the world's largest free trade agreement. RCEP was concluded, signed and brought into force in the face of major international uncertainty and is a significant boost to the global trading system. RCEP brings Australia, China, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand into the same agreement with the ten member ASEAN group at its centre. It keeps markets open and updates trade and investment rules in East Asia, a major centre of global economic activity, at a time of rising protectionism when the WTO itself is under threat. The agreement builds on ASEAN's free trade agreements and strengthens ASEAN centrality. One of the pillars of RCEP is an economic cooperation agenda which has its antecedents in ASEAN's approach to bringing along its least developed members and builds on the experience of capacity building in APEC and technical cooperation under the ASEAN Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement. There is an opportunity to create a framework that facilitates deeper economic cooperation that involves experience-sharing, extending RCEP's rules and membership at the same time as strengthening political cooperation. The paper suggests some areas that might be best suited to cooperation - that is confidence and trust building instead of or before negotiation - and discusses how non-members may be engaged and the membership expanded. Options such as multilateralising provisions and becoming a platform for policy convergence and coordinating unilateral reforms are canvassed.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.336-341
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• 2024

In this study, the economic and environmental feasibility of seaweed by-products as livestock feed ingredients was evaluated. In the last three years (2021-2023), the estimated average annual production of domestic seaweed by-products, including processing residuals from sea mustard and kelp, was 210,000 tons. The economic feasibility analysis of using seaweed by-products as livestock feed indicated a net benefit of 482,237 KRW per ton. Additionally, substituting seaweed by-products at 0.25% 0.5%, 1%, and 2% in livestock compound feed generated net benefits of 6.5, 12.9, 25.9, and 51.7 billion KRW, respectively. The potential market value was analyzed from an environmental perspective by examining the greenhouse gas reduction potential of seaweed additives. By adding 2% laver, 2% sea mustard, and 0.25% sea mustard sporophyll to the feed, greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by economic values estimated at 10.8, 11.4, and 15.6 billion KRW, respectively. The findings of this study suggest that the use of seaweed by-products livestock as feed ingredients can generate economic and environmental benefits.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.61-76
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• 2023

Purpose - The digital service trade has become an important driver of the global service trade. The main purpose of this study is to explore the influencing factors of digital service exports from China and Korea to RCEP sample countries respectively, and to comprehensively study the export potential of China and Korea to RCEP countries, so as to provide theoretical guidance and a decision-making reference to promote digital service trade exports and digital economy development in China and Korea. Design/methodology - First, the stochastic frontier gravity model was improved by introducing nonefficiency factors affecting digital services trade, extending the gravity model of traditional services trade exports to digital services trade exports. Secondly, the panel data of China and Korea for the eight sample countries of RCEP from 2011 to 2021 were adopted for the empirical analysis of digital service export potential by a stochastic frontier model. Findings - China's economic growth plays a role in increasing China's digital service trade exports, while Korea's economic growth does not play a significant role in increasing Korea's digital service trade exports. However, the economic growth of trading partner countries can play a significant role in boosting the digital service trade in both China and Korea, and comparison shows that Korea has higher resilience in the digital services trade than China. In addition, the market size of target countries plays a positive role in promoting the digital service trade exports of both China and Korea, and the increase in the value-added share of services in target countries will lead to a decrease in the digital service trade exports of both China and Korea. Originality/value - This study is innovative in terms of research perspective and method. Academic research on the export potential of international trade has been extensive, but most studies are based on the perspective of the goods trade, fewer studies are based on the perspective of the service trade, and there are almost no studies based on the perspective of digital service trade. There is a gap based on the comparative analysis of the export potential of the digital service trade between China and Korea. This study extends the gravitational model of traditional service trade exports to digital service trade exports to comparatively analyze the export potential of China and Korea to RCEP countries. This study addresses this limitation by analyzing a comparative analysis of the digital service trade export potential of China and Korea.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.129-168
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• 2016

The Asia-Pacific region is not typically seen as one geographic or socio-economic space. Yet, 58 regional economies occupying the space of 28 million square kilometers from Turkey in the West, Russian Federation in the North, French Polynesia in the East and New Zealand in the South belong to the Economic and Social Commission of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). This commission provides a forum for member states that "promotes regional cooperation and collective action, assisting countries in building and sustaining shared economic growth and social equity". In 2013, ESCAP's members adopted the Bangkok Declaration to enhance efforts towards deeper regional economic integration. Yet this document neither proposes a concrete modality or modalities of achieving deeper integration, nor provides a sense of distance of individual countries to a "perceived" integrated Asia-Pacific.This paper aims to comprehensively quantify recent integration efforts of economies in the Asia-Pacific region. We provide an "index of integration effort" based on twelve metrics that measure the relative distance of a given economy to the region as an economic entity. Generally, we find that while the region has trended towards becoming integrated in general, both the level of integration and integration effort are inconsistent among Asia-Pacific economies. We discuss potential applications and extensions of the index in developing our perspective of the region's economic and social dynamics.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.10
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• pp.249-257
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• 2021

Industrial agglomeration policy is a strategy that is expected to accelerate economic growth to transform an impoverished region into a prosperous one. However, industrial agglomeration also has the potential to exacerbate development inequality due to the concentration of economic development activities in certain areas. Therefore, this study aims to investigate what strategies are best to minimize the adverse effects of industrial agglomeration. This study uses econometric analysis with panel data covering 38 districts/cities in East Java during the 2011-2019 period. The results showed that the combination of industrial agglomeration policies coupled with accelerated sectoral growth, hard infrastructure development, and soft infrastructure provided the best policy outcome, improving regional inequality and accelerating economic growth in East Java. Based on the analysis, we find that East Java's economic growth characteristics are convergent but relatively long. Therefore, the East Java economic development policy during 2010-2019 should be reviewed due to the relatively long convergence period. Furthermore, this study also found that industrial agglomeration slows down the convergence and economic growth of East Java. In the future, the deployment of Industrial Development Centers (PPI) outside the existing eight districts/cities is needed to accelerate the spread of economic activity in East Java.