• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic model

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Impulse Response of Inflation to Economic Growth Dynamics: VAR Model Analysis

  • DINH, Doan Van
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.9
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    • pp.219-228
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    • 2020
  • The study investigates the impact of inflation rate on economic growth to find the best-fit model for economic growth in Vietnam. The study applied Vector Autoregressive (VAR), cointegration models, and unit root test for the time-series data from 1996 to 2018 to test the inflation impact on the economic growth in the short and long term. The study showed that the two variables are stationary at lag first difference I(1) with 1%, 5% and 10%; trace test indicates two cointegrating equations at the 0.05 level, the INF does not granger cause GDP, the optimal lag I(1) and the variables are closely related as R2 is 72%. It finds that the VAR model's results are the basis to perform economic growth; besides, the inflation rate is positively related to economic growth. The results support the monetary policy. This study identifies issues for Government to consider: have a comprehensive solution among macroeconomic policies, monetary policy, fiscal policy and other policies to control and maintain the inflation and stimulate growth; set a priority goal for sustainable economic growth; not pursue economic growth by maintaining the inflation rate in the long term, but take appropriate measures to stabilize the inflation at the best-fitted VAR forecast model.

Relationship Between Dry Ports and Regional Economy: Evidence from Yangtze River Economic Belt

  • LIU, Yan Feng;LEE, Chong Bae;QI, Guan Qiu;YUEN, Kum Fai;SU, Miao
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.345-354
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    • 2021
  • With the evolution of containerization and globalization of supply chains, aspects of port functions have made the transition from the sea to the inland region that forms the dry port. To explore the relationship between dry ports and regional economic development, this study uses a gravity model and forecast model to analyze 1,040 observations in 104 cities (22 dry port cities) along the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2008 to 2017. The model includes economic variables, logistics variables, foreign relations variables, and human capital variables. It was found that the dry port is positively correlated with trade volume. Compared with a city without a dry port, the trade volume of a city with a dry port will increase 0.099 times. It can be concluded that a dry port is crucial for the economic development of the YREB. It was also found that per capita GDP as an economic variable, road area and rail number as logistics variables, and foreign relation variables are positively correlated with trade volume, while the human capital variable has no significant effect on trade volume. In addition, governmental policy implications are addressed from the aspects of dry port and industry cluster caused by foreign investment.

Assessment of a Power Retail cost applying to WADE Economic Model (WADE Economic Model에 의한 전력소매가격 산정)

  • Kim, Yong-Ha;Chang, Sang-Gyu;Jo, Sung-Lin;Jung, Hyeon-Sung;Lee, Yong-Suk;Son, Seung-Hee
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2007.07a
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    • pp.67-68
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    • 2007
  • This Paper calculated Retail costs as the economic and environmental impacts of supplying incremental electric load growth with varying mixes of DE(Decentralized Energy) and CG(Centralized Generation) applying to WADE Economic Model in 2020.

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An Analysis of the Economic effect on Free Trade Agreement between Korea and China through the Computable General Equilibrium model (일반균형분석을 통한 한.중 자유무역협정의 경제적 효과와 추진 타당성 고찰)

  • Park, Do-Joon
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.313-331
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    • 2007
  • In a rapidly changing environment of international trade, the purpose of this study is to examine economic benefits and losses of each country involved in the negotiation on the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in Northeast Asia and to prepare strategies for the negotiation in the FTA between Korea and China. Previous researches on FTA have been made mainly from the macroeconomic perspective. The approach in this study is a combination of regulatory, reviewing regulations, and economic making quantitative analysis of the economic effects of FTA, which are the basic background of FTA. In economic analysis, I estimated the macroscopic economic effects of FTA by examining the effects of FTA on the trade balance, GDP and production of focal countries through the Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) model using GTAP data set.

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Comparison for the Economic Performance of Control Charts with the VSI and VSS Features (VSI와 VSS 관리도의 경제적 효율 비교)

  • 박창순;이재헌;김영일
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.99-117
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    • 2002
  • Variable sampling interval(VSI) and variable sample size(VSS) control charts vary the sampling rate for the next sample depending on the current chart statistic. This paper develops EWMA charts with the VSI and VSS features, and investigates the effectiveness of these charts in context of an economic model. The economic properties of these charts are evaluated by using Markov chain methods. The model contains cost parameters which allow the specification of the costs associated with sampling, false alarms, and operating off target. This economic model can be used to quantify the cost saving that can be obtained by using control charts with the VSI and VSS features instead of with the fixed sampling rate(FSR) feature, and can also be used to gain insight into the way that control charts with the VSI and VSS features should be designed to achieve optimal economic performance. The economic performance of X charts with the VSI and VSS features is also considered.

A Study on a Model of Economic Value of Transmission Speed of Internet Commerce (인터넷 상거래 처리속도의 경제적 가치분석 모형에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • 노규성;김민철
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.41-58
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    • 1999
  • This paper is a study on a model of economic value of transmission speed of Internet Commerce. For this research, this paper searches the factors that influence the transmission speed of Internet and suggests the model for measurement of economic value. The model adopted in this research is CVM(contingent valuation method) using in environment economics and the research area in this paper is concentrated on Internet-based Electronic Commerce. For this purpose, this paper suggests econometrics model that measures customer's payment intention for transmission speed of Internet. This model can be used as the basic tool of feasibility of investment analysis and reasonable pricing on Internet service. For the more, it will be followed empirical study and more careful comprehension for objective validity of this study.

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A Stock Assessment of Yellow Croaker using Bioeconomic Model: a Case of Single Species and Multiple Fisheries (생물경제모형을 이용한 참조기의 자원평가에 관한 연구 - 단일어종·다수어업 사례를 중심으로)

  • Sim, Seonghyun;Nam, Jongoh
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzes the stock assessment of yellow croaker caught mainly by the Korean stow net and gill net fisheries focusing on single species and multiple fisheries. This study standardizes fishing efforts for the two fisheries using the general linear model and uses a surplus production model based on the exponential growth model. The Clarke Yoshimoto Pooley model estimates a maximum sustainable yield(MSY), an allowable biological catch(ABC), fishing efforts for MSY($E_{MSY}$) and for ABC($E_{ABC}$). The bio-economic model is used to estimate the maximum economic yield(MEY) and fishing efforts for MEY($E_{MSY}$). Also, the study employs an economic analysis to estimate the economic interaction between stow net and gill net fisheries. The economic analysis shows the profit accruing to the two fisheries from estimated ABC. Finally, the study compares TACs based on single species and single fishery to TAC based on single species and multiple fisheries. The study proposes that the TAC assessment is necessary for single species and multiple fisheries in order to preserve resources.

A Study on AI-based Composite Supplementary Index for Complementing the Composite Index of Business Indicators (경기종합지수 보완을 위한 AI기반의 합성보조지수 연구)

  • JUNG, NAK HYUN;Taeyeon Oh;Kim, Kang Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.363-379
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The main objective of this research is to construct an AI-based Composite Supplementary Index (ACSI) model to achieve accurate predictions of the Composite Index of Business Indicators. By incorporating various economic indicators as independent variables, the ACSI model enables the prediction and analysis of both the leading index (CLI) and coincident index (CCI). Methods: This study proposes an AI-based Composite Supplementary Index (ACSI) model that leverages diverse economic indicators as independent variables to forecast leading and coincident economic indicators. To evaluate the model's performance, advanced machine learning techniques including MLP, RNN, LSTM, and GRU were employed. Furthermore, the study explores the potential of employing deep learning models to train the weights associated with the independent variables that constitute the composite supplementary index. Results: The experimental results demonstrate the superior accuracy of the proposed composite supple- mentary index model in predicting leading and coincident economic indicators. Consequently, this model proves to be highly effective in forecasting economic cycles. Conclusion: In conclusion, the developed AI-based Composite Supplementary Index (ACSI) model successfully predicts the Composite Index of Business Indicators. Apart from its utility in management, economics, and investment domains, this model serves as a valuable indicator supporting policy-making and decision-making processes related to the economy.

The Impacts of Korea-EU FTA on GyeongGi Agriculture and Inter-Industrial Ripple Effects by Region (한.EU FTA 체결에 따른 경기도 지역별 농업부문의 파급 영향과 산업연관효과 분석)

  • An, Dong-Hwan;Im, Jeong-Bin;Choi, Ae-Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we estimated the economic impacts of Korea-EU FTA on the agricultural sector in GyeongGi-Do. In particular, we estimated the economic impacts of agricultural production decrease resulting from Korea-EU FTA for 31 sub-regions in GyeongGi-Do by 15 industrial sectors. We employ a regional economic impact model combining a regional input-output model with a spatial allocation model. We found that the size of inter-industrial impacts are quite different across regions. Our results suggest the importance of agricultural and industrial policy considering the impacts of industrial sectors at the regional level.

A Study on the Determination of Economic Life of Weapon System by using the PRICE Model (PRICE 모텔을 이용한 무기체계 경제수명 결정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Seung-Soo;Kang Sung-Jin
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.13-31
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    • 2004
  • This paper aims at efficient determining the economic life of weapon systems. Specifically, the procedure to estimate the life cycle cost at initial acquisition state or at development state using the PRICE model is proposed. The PRICE model is a parametric cost estimation which is widely used in the field of national defense. The model includes the estimation of the cost in life cycle of weapon systems such as research and development, acquisition, operation and support. Using this model, economic life of weapon systems can be determined. Based on an equivalent annual cost (EAC) method which sums the capital recovery with return (CR) and the equivalence cost (EC), the economic life will be calculated. A case study is accomplished to illustrate the proposed procedure.