• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic forecasting

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Introduction of InsurTech and Analysis of Re-Entry into Chinese Insurance Market for Korean Insurance Companies (인슈어테크 도입과 한국 보험회사의 중국 보험시장 재진출 전략 분석 연구)

  • Hwang, Ki-Sik;Choi, Sin-Young;Kim, Se-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.22 no.9
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    • pp.1147-1152
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    • 2018
  • In the recent, Chinese insurance market has taken a introduction of InsurTech. It is a combination of insurance and fintech. This means that the policyholder design their own insurance and take out the policy on-line without insurance planner. This trend is remarkable issue. Growth rate of InsurTech in China have significantly been growing. In addition, Chinese insurance market has kept generally stable and fast growth rate, although Chinese forecasting economic growth is subject to massive uncertainties. Nevertheless, the increase in the number of Korean insurance companies fails to settle into Chinese insurance market due to lack of awareness about newness of Chinese insurance market. Moreover, Korean insurance company in China or planning to enter are not prepared for InsurTech yet. Chinese insurance market is valuable for Korean insurance companies. This paper suggests implications of re-entry into Chinese insurance market to Korean insurance companies by analyzing policies which could make environment to endorse Chinese insurtech and case of Chinese insurtech companies.

An Empirical Study on the Prediction of Future New Defense Technologies in Artificial Intelligence (인공지능 분야 국방 미래 신기술 예측에 관한 실증연구)

  • Ahn, Jin-Woo;Noh, Sang-Woo;Kim, Tae-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.458-465
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    • 2020
  • Technological advances in artificial intelligence are affecting many industries, such as telecommunications, logistics, security, and healthcare, and research and development related to economic, efficiency, linkage with commercial technologies are the current focus. Predicting the changes in the future battlefield environment and ways of conducting war from a strategic point of view, as well as designing/planning the direction of military development for a leading response is not only a basic element to prepare for comprehensive future threats but also an indispensable factor that can produce an optimal effect over a limited budget/time. From this perspective, this study was conducted as part of a technology-driven plan to discover potential future technologies with high potential for use in the defense field and apply them to R&D. In this study, based on research data collected in a defense future technology investigation, the future new technology that requires further research was predicted by considering the redundancy with existing defense research projects and the feasibility of technology. In addition, an empirical study was conducted to verify the significance between the future new defense technology and the evaluation indicators in the AI field.

Comparative Study of the Effects of the Intermodal Freight Transport Policies (인터모달 추진 정책과 효과에 관한 비교연구)

  • Woo, Jung-Wouk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.10
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    • pp.123-133
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The Korean government has devised intermodal transportation policies and granted subsidies to shippers and logistics companies that made a conversion of transportation means through the policies. This provides support by expanding the complex uniform railroad transportation and overhauling the deteriorated railroad facilities. As for 2013, however, the freight transportation percentage of railroad was 4.5% in tons and 8.5% in ton kilometers. Meanwhile, since the 1990s, developed countries such as the U.S. and Europe have been trying to expand intermodal freight transport with a legal and institutional support to build a logistics system corresponding with social and economic environmental changes. In this study, I set out to examine the effects of the intermodal freight transport policies in the EU and the U.S., and to explore the direction of setting up a rail intermodal transport system in South Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - The paper used a qualitative research methodology through the literature review. First, was an overview of Intermodal transportation in the EU, U.S. and UN. Second, it describes the development of transport in Europe and the U.S. with particular emphasis on intermodal freight transport. Third, it explores the direction of setting up a intermodal freight transport in South Korea. The last section contains concluding remarks. Results - As for the EU, it has been promoting integration between transport and intermodal logistics network designs while utilizing ITS or ICT and supports for rail freight intermodal by giving reduction to a facilities fee or subsidizing for rail freight in order to minimize the cost of external due to freight transport. On the other hand, as for the U.S., it has been made up of an industrial-led operating project and has been promoting it to improve accessibility between intermodal hubs and cargo terminals through intermodal corridor program, and an intermodal cargo hub access corridor projects, etc. Moreover, it has tried to construct intermodal transport system using ITS or ICT and to remove Barrier. As a result, in these countries, the proportion of intermodal freight transport is going to be the second significant transport compared with rail and maritime transport. An Effective rail intermodal transport system is needed in South Korea, as seen in the case of these countries. In order to achieve this object, the following points are required to establish radical infrastructure policy; diversify investment financing measures taken under public-private partnerships, legal responsibilities, improvement of utilization of existing facilities to connect the railway terminal and truck terminal, and enhancement service competitiveness through providing cargo tracking and security information that combines the ITS and ICT. Conclusions - This study will be used as a basis for policy and support for intermodal freight transport in South Korea. In the future, it is also necessary to examine from the perspective of the shipper companies using the rail intermodal transport, ie, recognition of shipper, needed institutional supports, and transportation demand forecasting and cost-effective analysis of the railway infrastructure systems improvement.

A Study on Activity Type Based on Multi-dimensional Characteristics (개인의 복합적인 특성에 따른 활동유형 분석)

  • Na, Sung Yong;Lee, Seungjae;Kim, Joo Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.544-553
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    • 2014
  • Activity-based models analyze individuals' various daily activities that are identified as a decision-making unit for transportation planning. In other words, it is the model that determines the types of activities according to the social, economic and situational characteristics of the groups with the same activity patterns and predicts individuals' activity time, distance, spatial movement and transportation mode. The activity-based model is a method of estimating more efficient and realistic demand in transportation forecasting because traffic is regarded as a complex decision-making process that an individual and other people participate in. In this paper, we grasp the factors affecting choice behavior of activity pattern and analyze choice behavior of activity pattern based on multi-dimensional characteristic of each person. First, we classify activity types of reviewing the trip chain and activity purpose. Next, we identified preferable activity types using complicated characteristics of main agent of activity. We concluded that choice behavior of activity pattern is dependent on complex characteristics of each agent, and further multi-dimensional characteristics of each person are affected over the whole decision process of activity schedule.

A Study on Data Preprocessing for the Activity-Travel Simulator: A Case of FEATHERS Seoul (활동기반 시뮬레이터 입력 자료의 전처리 방안에 대한 연구: FEATHERS Seoul을 사례로)

  • Cho, Sungjin;Hwang, Jeong Hwan;Bellemans, Tom;Kochan, Bruno;Lee, Won Do;Choi, Keechoo;Joh, Chang-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.531-543
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    • 2014
  • Research on activity-based travel demand forecasting and activity-travel simulator has received an international attention for the last two decades. Ways to develop the activity-based simulator may be manifold. It is obvious that importing an existing simulator that has been proven internationally likely reduces the development cost and the risk of failure. By definition of the activity-based approach, however, the details of an activity-based simulator inevitably relies on particular social, economic and cultural characteristics of the society where the simulator is developed. When importing such a simulator from overseas, the researcher should be aware of the importance of tuning the system for the society to which the imported system is applied. There are many potential works on this, including for example the tuning of data structure that is likely different form of the original system. The authors are yet aware of certain research on those. The current paper aims to report the result of transforming the input data for applying the existing activity-travel simulator to Seoul. The paper first introduces FEATHERS that was developed in Belgium having Albatross which is the core of system. FEATHERS Seoul that is under development and modified version of the original FEATHERS is briefly described and the related problems are discussed. The paper then explored to resolve and to alleviate such problems.

Scenario Planning based on Collective Intelligence Using Wiki (위키를 활용한 집단지성 기반의 시나리오 플래닝)

  • Han, Jongmin;Yim, Hyun;Lee, Jae-Shin
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.29-48
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    • 2012
  • As the complexity and uncertainty of social and economic systems increase, the strategic foresight that actively and effectively responds to the environmental changes becomes important. A wide range of future forecasting methods are available for strategic foresight. Selecting one of the methods depends on several factors such as availability of time and financial resources and the objectives of the exercise. Although trend extrapolation analysis has been used for many years, scenario planning is being widely used by government and corporate as a tool for strategic decision making in recent years. Generally, scenario planning is carried out through workshop, in which experts with diverse backgrounds exchange information, views, and insights and integrate the diverse viewpoints. However, only a small number of experts can participate in a workshop and citizen opinion is not easily transformed into the policy for the scenario exercise due to the limitation of budget and short duration of a project. It is also much harder to develop creative ideas in the workshop because of the limited time and space. In this study, a new scenario process combining scenario workshop and wiki is proposed to overcome the limitation of scenario workshop. This combined approach can be more productive than using scenario workshop alone when developing new ideas. In this study, we applied the combined approach to develop scenarios for the strategic foresight of future media and present suggestions for improving the process.

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Stock prediction using combination of BERT sentiment Analysis and Macro economy index

  • Jang, Euna;Choi, HoeRyeon;Lee, HongChul
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2020
  • The stock index is used not only as an economic indicator for a country, but also as an indicator for investment judgment, which is why research into predicting the stock index is ongoing. The task of predicting the stock price index involves technical, basic, and psychological factors, and it is also necessary to consider complex factors for prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is necessary to study the model for predicting the stock price index by selecting and reflecting technical and auxiliary factors that affect the fluctuation of the stock price according to the stock price. Most of the existing studies related to this are forecasting studies that use news information or macroeconomic indicators that create market fluctuations, or reflect only a few combinations of indicators. In this paper, this we propose to present an effective combination of the news information sentiment analysis and various macroeconomic indicators in order to predict the US Dow Jones Index. After Crawling more than 93,000 business news from the New York Times for two years, the sentiment results analyzed using the latest natural language processing techniques BERT and NLTK, along with five macroeconomic indicators, gold prices, oil prices, and five foreign exchange rates affecting the US economy Combination was applied to the prediction algorithm LSTM, which is known to be the most suitable for combining numeric and text information. As a result of experimenting with various combinations, the combination of DJI, NLTK, BERT, OIL, GOLD, and EURUSD in the DJI index prediction yielded the smallest MSE value.

A Prediction and Analysis for Functional Change of Ecosystem in South Korea (생태계 용역가치를 이용한 대한민국 생태계의 기능적 변화 예측 및 분석)

  • Kim, Jin-Soo;Park, So-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.114-128
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    • 2013
  • Rapid industrialization and economic growth have led to serious problems including reduced open space, environmental degradation, traffic congestion, and urban sprawl. These problems have been exacerbated by the absence of effective conservation and governance, and have resulted in various social conflicts. In response to these challenges, many scholar and government hope to achieve sustainable development through the establishment and management of environment-friendly planning. For this purpose, we would like to analyze functional change for ecosystem by future land-use/cover changes in South Korea. Toward this goal, we predicted land-use/cover changes from 2010 to 2060 using the future population of Statistics Korea and urban growth probability map created by logistic regression analysis and analyzed ecosystem service value using costanza's coefficient. In the case of scenario 1, ecosystem service value represented 6,783~7,092 million USD. In the case of scenario 2, ecosystem represented 6,775~7,089 million USD, 2.9~7.6 million USD decreased compared by scenario 1. This was the result of area reduction for farmland and wetland which have high environmental value relatively according to urban growth by development point of view. The results of this analysis indicate that environmentally sustainable systems and urban development must be applied to achieve sustainable development and environmental protection. Quantitative analysis of environmental values in accordance with environmental policy can help inform the decisions of policy makers and urban developers. Furthermore, forecasting urban growth based on future demand will provide more precise predictive analysis.

Analysis of the Korean Real Estate Market and Boosting Policies Focusing on Mortgage Loans: Using System Dynamics (주택담보대출 규제 완화에 따른 부동산시장 영향 분석: 시스템다이내믹스 모형 개발)

  • Hwang, Sung-Joo;Park, Moon-Seo;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Yoon, You-Sang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2010
  • The Korean real estate market currently is experiencing a slowdown due to the global economic crisis which has resulted from subprime mortgage lending practices. In response, the Korean government has enforced various policies, based on intend to deregulate real estate speculation, such as increasing the Loan to value ratio (LTV) in order to stimulate housing supply, demand and accompanying housing transactions. However, these policies have appeared to result in deep confusion in the Korean housing market. Furthermore, analyses for housing market forecasting particularly those which examine the impact of the international financial crisis on the Korean real estate market have been partial and fragmentary. Therefore, a comprehensive and systematical approach is required to analyze the real estate financial market and the causal nexus between market determining factors. Thus, with an integrated perspective and applying a system dynamics methodology, this paper proposes Korean Real Estate and Mortgage Market dynamics models based on the fundamental principles of housing markets, which are determined by supply and demand. As well, the potential effects of the Korean government's deregulation policies are considered by focusing on the main factor of these policies: the mortgage loan.

A Study of the Proper Sizing of a Subway Station Waiting Area (도시철도 대기공간의 적정규모 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jonghwang;Baek, Sungjoon;Nam, Doohee
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.262-269
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    • 2016
  • Subway station scales are determined by peak predictions. In this study, the purpose behind the installation of a subway is public transportation convenience and public interest, but economic validity is also important. By proving that the scale of the station is excessive with regard to the target station size for Seoul subway Line 5-8, a reasonable plan. can be sought. According to station installation standards, the area of the station under investigation here is out of the service levels by six stages (A~F), and it must be four or more levels (D). The Actual level for the B level is a two-step design. The Actual ratio for over- Peak predictions is only 17.8% on average. The results of measurements of the excess area and determination of the excessive costs were analyzed by subdividing the area and by calculating it based on the B level, finding that it is possible to provide benefits for customers only in the current design, with an area ratio of 16.3%. Given the weight, it was estimated that current conditions can meet the needs of only 18.6% of the current area. Simplifying the scale calculation method of the station, it is convenient, safe, and advantageous to move citizens only if the scale can be streamlined. Then, with a reduced initial investment, maintenance costs during the operation can be reduced.