• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic forecasting

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An analysis of the operational efficiency of the major airports worldwide using DEA and Malmquist productivity indices (세계 주요 공항 운영 효율성 분석: DEA와 Malmquist 생산성 지수 분석을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Hong-Seop;Park, Jeong-Rim
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - We live in a world of constant change and competition. Many airports have specific competitiveness goals and strategies for achieving and maintaining them. The global economic recession, financial crises, and rising oil prices have resulted in an increasingly important role for facility investment and renewal and the implementation of appropriate policies in ensuring the competitive advantage for airports. It is thus important to analyze the factors that enhance efficiency and productivity for an airport. This study aims to determine the efficiency levels of 20 major airports in East Asia, Europe, and North America. Further, this study also suggests suitable policies and strategies for their development. Research design, data, and methodology - This paper employs the DEA-CCR, DEA-BCC, and DEA-Malmquist production index analysis models to determine airport efficiency. The study uses data on the efficiency and productivity of the world's leading airports between 2006 and 2010. The input variables include the airport size, the number of runways, the size of passenger terminals, and the size of cargo terminals. The output variables include the annual number of passengers and the annual cargo volume. The study uses basic data from the 2010 World Airport Traffic Report (ACI). The world's top 20 airports (as rated by the ACI report) are investigated. The study uses the expanded DEA Model and the Super Efficiency Model to identify the most effective airports among the top 20. The Malmquist productivity index analysis is used to measure airport effectiveness. Results - This study analyzes longitudinal and cross-sectional data on the world's top 20 airports covering 2006 to 2010. A CCR analysis shows that the most efficient airports in 2010 were Gatwick Airport (LGW), Zurich Airport (ZRH), Vienna Airport (VIE), Leonardo da Vinci Fiumicino Airport (FCO), Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Seattle-Tacoma Airport (SEA), San Francisco Airport (SFO), HongKong Airport (HKG), Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK), and Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG). We find that changes in airport productivity are affected more by technical factors than by airport efficiency. Conclusions - Based on the study results, we offer four airport development proposals. First, a benchmark airport needs to be identified. Second, inefficiency must be reduced and high-cost factors need to be managed. Third, airport operations should be enhanced through technical innovation. Finally, scientific demand forecasting and facility preparation must become the focus of attention. This paper has some limitations. Because the Malmquist productivity index is based on the hypothesis of the, the identified production change could be over- or under-estimated. Further, as DEA estimates the relative efficiency. It also cannot generalize to include all airport conditions because the variables are limited. To measure airport productivity more accurately, other input variables and environmental variables such as financial and policy factors should be included.

An Automated OpenGIS-based Tool Development for Flood Inundation Mapping and its Applications in Jeju Hancheon (OpenGIS 기반 홍수범람지도 작성 자동화 툴 개발 및 제주 한천 적용 연구)

  • Kim, Kyungdong;Kim, Taeeun;Kim, Dongsu;Yang, Sungkee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.691-702
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    • 2019
  • Flood inundation map has various important roles in terms of municipal planning, timely dam operation, economic levee design, and building flood forecasting systems. Considering that the riparian areas adjacent to national rivers with high potential flood vulnerability conventionally imposed special cares to justify applications of recently available two- or three-dimensional flood inundation numerical models on top of digital elevation models of dense spatial resolution such as LiDAR irrespective of their high costs. On the contrary, local streams usually could not have benefits from recent technological advances, instead they inevitably have relied upon time-consuming manual drawings or have accepted DEMs with poor resolutions or inaccurate 1D numerical models for producing inundation maps due mainly to limited budgets and suitable techniques. In order to efficiently and cost-effectively provide a series of flood inundation maps dedicatedly for the local streams, this study proposed an OpenGIS-based flood mapping tool named Open Flood Mapper (OFM). The spatial accuracy of flood inundation map derived from the OFM was validated throughout comparison with an inundation trace map acquired after typhoon Nari in Hancheon basin located in Jeju Island. Also, a series of inundation maps from the OFM were comprehensively investigated to track the burst of flood in the extreme flood events.

Present Status of Soilborne Disease Incidence and Scheme for Its Integrated Management in Korea (국내 토양병해 발생현황과 종합 관리방안)

  • Kim, Choong-Hoe;Kim, Yong-Ki
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.146-161
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    • 2002
  • Incidence of soilborne diseases, as a major cause of failure of continuous monocropping becomes severe in recent years. For examples, recent epidemics of club root of chinese cabbage, white rot of garlic, bacterial wilt of potato, pepper phytophthora blight, tomato fusarium wilt and CGMMV of watermelon are the diseases that require urgent control measures. Reasons for the severe incidence of soilborne diseases are the simplified cropping system or continuous monocropping associated with allocation of major production areas of certain crop and year-round cultivation system that results in rapid degradation of soil environment. Neglect of breeding for disease resistance relative to giving much emphasis on high yield and good quality, and cultural methods putting first on the use of chemical fertilizers are thought to be the reason. Counter-measures against soilborne disease epidemics would become most effective when the remedies are seeded for individual causes. As long-term strategies, development of rational cropping system which fits local cropping and economic condition, development and supply of cultivars resistant to multiple diseases, and improvement of soil environment by soil conditioning are suggested. In short-term strategies, simple and economical soil-disinfestation technology, and quick and accurate forecasting methods for soilborne diseases are urgent matter far development. for these, extensive supports are required in governmental level for rearing soilborne disease specialists and activation of collaborating researches to solve encountering problems of soilborne diseases.

Integrated Pest Control - Principles and Practices - (종합적 유해생물 관리 - 이론과 실제 -)

  • Hyun Jai-Sun
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.44 no.1 s.138
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    • pp.73-90
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    • 2005
  • Although the history of IPM can be traced back to the late 19th century, when ecology was identified as the foundation for scientific plant protection, it has been more than thirty years since first enunciation. Since than, the concept of IPM has evolved in multiple paths not only in entomology but in plant pathology and in weed science, and the philosophy has become a firm foundation to the science of plant protection. The IPM concept has gained wide general acceptance, however, because of the many-facet aspects, there has been some controversy and/or misunderstanding by the students and practitioners. In this paper, I was tried to review the concepts of IPM and to resolve the contradiction between the philosophy and practical techniques. On this line, the historical background and the concept of economic injury level, which is the foundation of the concepts, are reviewed and discussed the sampling techniques and the population dynamics of single pest, which were basic to the rational and effective application of the management techniques. IPM is not a science per se but it is a technique and it should be applicable to the real conditions. For this purpose, the information on the pests should be transferred to the producers as fast as possible. From such, some of my own opinion is presented in relation to current systems of the pest occurrence forecasting.

An Analysis on the Yield Curves for Active Bond Managements (적극적 채권운용전략을 위한 수익률곡선 분석)

  • Jeong, Hee-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 2008
  • Before the financial crisis in 1997, Korean bond markets had been those of corporate bonds with relatively high market yield. During the period, most of major institutional investors tend to utilize passive strategies such as buying and holding. After the crisis, however, they could not help choosing active bond management strategies because of lowed yield level and intensified competition among the financial institutions. This study is forced on the yield curve, which is the reflection of all information on the bond investment environments. The study also make analysis on the major economic and securities market factors and its structural relationship with the shape of the curve such as level, curvature and slope. For these purposes, an empirical model based on the Nelson-Siegel Model is estimated with the data during $1999{\sim}2006$. Out-of-sample forecasting is also made to test the usefulness of the estimated model. In addition, the dependent variables which are the estimates of level and slope are estimated on the macro variables and securities market variables. VAR and SUR models are used for the estimation. Estimation results show that level and slope of the yield curve are influenced by the target call rate change, exchange rate change rate, inflation rate. These results provide practical implications for the active managements in the overall treasury bond markets.

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Heat Consumption Pattern Analysis by the Component Ratio of District Heating Users (지역난방 사용자 구성비에 따른 열소비 패턴 분석)

  • Lee, Hoon;Lee, Min-Kyun;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.211-225
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    • 2013
  • To run an optimal operation of Integrated energy supply facilities, we need to analyze heat consumption patterns of District heating users and derive optimum and maximum load ratio of heat production facilities unit. This study selects three District heat production facilities. It also classifies District heating users into residential apartment buildings and eight non-residential buildings and analyzes heat consumption results for an year. Finally it carries out the analysis of how the ratio change of each type affects maximum load ratio, facility utilization ratio, heat supply range. According to this study, three different District heat facilities of residential apartment building show similar daily and annual heat consumption patterns. Annual average load ratio, maximum load ratio and annual heat demand increase as outdoor temperatures decrease. Non-residential buildings in urban District focused on apartment buildings display similar by the daily and annual heat consumption patterns. Yet their daily and annual maximum load ratio differ according to outdoor temperature, District, building types and their composition ratio. In the case of urban District focused on apartment buildings reach optimum and maximum load ratio when apartment buildings reaches 60-70% of the total. At that point heat supply range becomes maximized and the most economic efficiency is obtained.

An Empirical Study on Defense Future Technology in Artificial Intelligence (인공지능 분야 국방 미래기술에 관한 실증연구)

  • Ahn, Jin-Woo;Noh, Sang-Woo;Kim, Tae-Hwan;Yun, Il-Woong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.409-416
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligence, which is in the spotlight as the core driving force of the 4th industrial revolution, is expanding its scope to various industrial fields such as smart factories and autonomous driving with the development of high-performance hardware, big data, data processing technology, learning methods and algorithms. In the field of defense, as the security environment has changed due to decreasing defense budget, reducing military service resources, and universalizing unmanned combat systems, advanced countries are also conducting technical and policy research to incorporate artificial intelligence into their work by including recognition systems, decision support, simplification of the work processes, and efficient resource utilization. For this reason, the importance of technology-driven planning and investigation is also increasing to discover and research potential defense future technologies. In this study, based on the research data that was collected to derive future defense technologies, we analyzed the characteristic evaluation indicators for future technologies in the field of artificial intelligence and conducted empirical studies. The study results confirmed that in the future technologies of the defense AI field, the applicability of the weapon system and the economic ripple effect will show a significant relationship with the prospect.

An Empirical Study on Future New Technology in Defense Unmanned Robot (국방 무인로봇 분야 미래 신기술에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kim, DoeHun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.611-616
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    • 2018
  • With the recent increase in awareness of the diversification of patterns of warfare and security, technological evolution is occurring in the field of autonomous defense robots. As defense science and technology develops with the development of the concept of military utilization focusing on human lives and economic operation, the importance of autonomous robots in the effect-oriented future battlefield is increasing. The major developed countries have developed core technologies, investment strategies, priorities, data securing strategies and infrastructure development related to the field of autonomous defense robots, and research activities such as technology planning and policy strategy for autonomous defense robots in Korea have already begun. In addition, the field of autonomous defense robots encompasses technologies that represent the fourth industrial revolution, such as artificial intelligence, big data, and virtual reality, and so the expectations for this future area of technology are very high. It is difficult to predict the path of technological development due to the increase in the demand for new rather than existing technology. Moreover, the selection and concentration of strategic R&D is required due to resource constraints. It is thought that a preemptive response is needed. This study attempts to derive 6 new technologies that will shape the future of autonomous defense robots and to obtain meaningful results through an empirical study.

Consumer Trend Platform Development for Combination Analysis of Structured and Unstructured Big Data (정형 비정형 빅데이터의 융합분석을 위한 소비 트랜드 플랫폼 개발)

  • Kim, Sunghyun;Chang, Sokho;Lee, Sangwon
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.133-143
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    • 2017
  • Data is the most important asset in the financial sector. On average, 71 percent of financial institutions generate competitive advantage over data analysis. In particular, in the card industry, the card transaction data is widely used in the development of merchant information, economic fluctuations, and information services by analyzing patterns of consumer behavior and preference trends of all customers. However, creation of new value through fusion of data is insufficient. This study introduces the analysis and forecasting of consumption trends of credit card companies which convergently analyzed the social data and the sales data of the company's own. BC Card developed an algorithm for linking card and social data with trend profiling, and developed a visualization system for analysis contents. In order to verify the performance, BC card analyzed the trends related to 'Six Pocket' and conducted th pilot marketing campaign. As a result, they increased marketing multiplier by 40~100%. This study has implications for creating a methodology and case for analyzing the convergence of structured and unstructured data analysis that have been done separately in the past. This will provide useful implications for future trends not only in card industry but also in other industries.

Emerging Technologies in Mobile Communications for 2020 (2020년 미래 무선통신 유망기술 발굴)

  • Lee, Kyungpyo;Song, Youngkeun;Han, Woori;Lee, Sungjoo
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.38A no.1
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    • pp.108-126
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    • 2013
  • Recently, it becomes essential for firms or nations to forecast the future and identify emerging technologies in order to improve R&D efficiency and gain a competitive advantage. Particularly, the mobile communications industry is characterized by rapid advance and wide application of its technology and thus identifying emerging technologies is more important in the industry than in others. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to explore its emerging technologies. Therefore, this research aims to develop a methodology to identify the future and emerging technologies especially for the industry and applied it to list top ten emerging technologies for 2020 in the industry. For this purpose, firstly, we focused the key issues in the future targeting 2020 and identified user needs relating to them. Then, candidates of emerging technologies were defined from a set of technologies to meet the needs, for which technological and economic feasibility is assessed to determine their priorities. Finally, the top ten most important technologies were selected and verified. This research is distinct from the previous studies in that it takes a market-pull approach instead of a technology-push approach. The research results are expected to provide valuable information to support strategy- and policy-makings in the mobile communications industry.