• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic analysis method

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Study of Synthesis and Biological Function on Aminophosphonic Acids (Aminophosphonic Acids 화합물의 생물학적 기능연구)

  • Kim, Sook-He
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 1971
  • Since ${\beta}-aminoethylphosphonic$ acid was discovered in the living organism, the biosynthesis and biological function of aminophosphonic acids have been extensively studied. The purpose of this project consists in the two parts: 1)the preparation of DL-1-amino-2-phenylethylphosphonic acid (Phenylalanine aminophosphonic acid) and DL-1-amino-3-methylbutyl-phosphonic acid (Isoleucine aminophosphonic acid) by the method of Chamber and Isbell. 2) the study of metabolism and biological functions of those synthetic materials by the animal experiment (white rats) The importance of this project proved to be the first experience fed by animals for the elucidation of biochemical and metabolic functions in the animal body. The following organic synthesis of DL-1-amino-3-methylbutylphosphonic acid and DL-1-amino-2-phenylethylphosphonic acid are studied. 1)Synthesis of DL-1-amino-3-methylbutylphosphonic acid a) Synthesis of Iso-butylbromide b) Synthesis of Ethyl iso-butylmalonate c) Synthesis of Iso-caproic acid d) Synthesis of $Ethyl-{\alpha}-bromo$ iso-caproate e) Synthesis of $Triethyl-{\alpha}-phosphono$ iso-caproate f) Synthesis of DL-1-amino-3-methylbutylphosphonic acid 2)Synthesis of DL-1-amino-2-phenylethylphosphonic acid a) Synthesis of Diethyl phosphite b) Synthesis of Ethylchloro acetate c) Synthesis of Triethyl phospho acetate d) Synthesis of Triethyl benzyl phospho acetate e) Synthesis of DL-1-amino-2-phenylethylphosphonic acid The synthetic compounds; DL-1-amino-3-methylbutylphosphonic acid and DL-1-amino-2-phenyl ethylphosphonic acid which are essential amino acid (isoleucine, phenylalanine)analogue are supplemented to the animal diet at the level of 0.2% and 0.4% for isoleucine analogue and 0.35% and 0.7% for phenylalanine analogue. The plain isoleucine and phenylalanine at the same level in the diet are fercilitated as comparable groups in this study. Two sets of experience including 100 male rats were carried out for seven weeks each total 14 weeks. During this period, urine samples, and each big organs were collected for the analysis of total nitrogen, phosphorus, and glycogen contents in the individual samples by Micro Kjeldahl Fisk & Subbarow and Nelson Somogye, method. 1) The result of the project a) The yield of DL-1-amino-3-methylbutylphosphonic acid and DL-1-amino-2-phenylethylphosphonic acid showed low tendency at the level of 12.5% and 20% Melting point of those two compounds were very high and the ${\alpha}-amino$ group in the synthetic compounds showed positive reaction with ninhydrin in the violet color. b) Ail the experimental groups included in this study revealed statistically no significant difference in the organ weight, total body nitrogen retention and urinary phosphorus excretion This means isoleucine aminophosphonic acid and Phenylalanine aminophosphonic acid were utilized in the body as much as the plain amino acids, isoleucine and phenylalanine did. c) The glycogen contents in the liver of the phenylalaine aminophosphonic acid gruop showed higher statistically significant(p<0.05) in the comparision with the group of the Phenylalanine and the Standard-2. It was noteworthy that the higher glycogen content in the liver might indicate the significance in the incorporation of phenylalanine aminophosphonic acid into the intermediate of tricarboxylic acid cycle as activated state.

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Variation and Forecast of Rural Population in Korea: 1960-1985 (농촌인구(農村人口)의 변화(變化)와 예측(豫測))

  • Kwon, Yong Duk;Choi, Kyu Seob
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.8
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 1990
  • This study investigated the relationship between the cutflow of rural population and agricultural policy by using time series method. For the analytical tools, decomposition time series methods and regression technique were employed in computing seasonal fluctuation and cyclical fluctuation of population migration. Also, this study predicted farmhouse, rural population till the 2000's by means of the mathematical methods. The analytical forms employed in forecasting farmhouse, rural population were Exponential curve, Gompertz curve and Transcendental form. The major findings of this study were identified as follows: 1) Rural population and farmhouse population began to decrease from 1965 and hastily went down since 1975. Rural population which accounted for 36.4 percent, 35.6 percent of national population respectively in 1960 diminished about two times: 17.5 percent, 17.1 percent respectively. 2) The rapid decreasing of the rural population was caused because of the outflow of rural people to the urban regions. Of course, that was also caused from the natural decreases but the main reason was heavily affected more the former than the latter. In the outflowing course shaped from rural to the urban regions, rural people concentrated on such metropolis as Seoul, Pusan, Keanggi. But these trends were diminishing slowly. On the other hand, compared with that of the 1970's the migration to Keanggi was still increasing in the 1980's. That is, people altered the way of migration from the migration to Seoul, Pusan to the migration to the out-skirts of Seoul. 3) The seasonal fluctuation index of population migration has gone down since the June which the request of agricultural labor force increases and has turned to be greatly wanted in the March as result of decomposition time series method. As result of cyclical analysis, the cyclical patterns of migration have greatly 7 cycle. 4) As result of forecasting the rural and farmhouse population, rural and farmhouse population in the 2000 will be about 9,655(thousand/people) and 4,429(thousand/people) respectively. Thus, it is important to analyze the probloms that rural and farmhouse population will decrease or increase by the degree. But fairly defining the agricultural into a industry that supply the food, this problem - how much our nation need the rural and farmhouse population - is greatly significant too. Therefore, the basic problems of the agricultural including the outflows of rural people are the earning differentials between rural and urban regions. And we should regard the problems of the gap of relative incomes between rural and urban regions as the main task of the agricultural policy and treat the agricultural policy in the viewpoint of developing economic equilibrium than efficiency by using actively the natural resources of the rural regions.

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A Study on the Current Fire Insurance Subscription and Solutions for Ensuring the Safety of the Traditional Market (전통시장 안전성 확보를 위한 개선방안: 화재보험 가입실태를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yoo-Oh;Byun, Chung-Gyu;Ryu, Tae-Chang
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2011
  • Concerning the risk factors of the outbreak of a fire in a traditional market, most of those markets are located in downtown areas or residential areas; thus, although their location may be favorable in terms of marketability, they face a potential risk in that a fire may develop into a large blaze owing to poor environment or the absence of facilities prepared for disaster during a fire. Moreover, as many people are densely poised in the markets, it is very probable that a fire may occur owing to the excessive use of heaters in the winter as well as the reckless use of electric and gas facilities. It seems that traditional markets encounter difficulty being insured against fire, because of their vulnerability and that the vast majority of small-scale sellers are likely to suffer mental anguish and tremendous physical injury in case of a fire. However, most of those sellers in the traditional markets are hand-to-mouth sellers, and they lack awareness of safety concerns and have insufficient experience in safe facility management. As small-scale sellers constitute the majority in the traditional market, the subscription rate of fire insurance in most of the traditional markets is low for the reasons of their needy circumstances and their financial burden. Statistically, the subscription by street vendors is non-existent; therefore, these vendors have a fairly limited access to indemnification after fire damage. Because of these problems, this study's purpose is to identify the current level of insurance subscription by these markets, which are exposed to poor facilities and vulnerability to fire. In order to fix this, it appears that shop owners and consumers will have to band together. For this study, we executed a fire policyholder fact-finding mission at traditional markets with approximately 108 and 981 stores. The research method was executed by an investigation using one-on-one individual interviews using a questionnaire. The contents investigated current insurance subscriptions. The method of analysis looked at the difference of insured amount according to volume size through cross-tabulation of the difference of insured amount by possession form, difference of insured amount by market form, difference of insured amount by category of business, difference of insured amount by market size, etc. Furthermore, the study should be used to propose solutions for problems through theoretical review with the use of a literature research, because the field case study was through interviews with the persons concerned, and the survey of the current insurance subscriptions by traditional market shopkeepers. The traditional market would generally have difficulty affording fire insurance. Fire insurance subscription rates of most of the market proved to be inactive, because of the economic burden of payment. Lack of funds is thought to be the main factor that causes a lack of realization about the necessity of fire insurance. In addition to expensive insurance premiums, sometimes, the companies' valuation of the businesses is lower than their actual valuations, and they do not pay out enough during a claim. The research presents an improvement plan that, when presented at the traditional markets, may strengthen their ability to procure fire insurance through the help of the central government. Researchers connected with the traditional market mainly accomplish the initial research. However, although this research has its limitations, it offers considerable benefits. For future researchers, I would suggest looking at several regions for comparison.

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A Theory Construction on the Care Experience for Spouses of Patients with Chronic Illness (만성질환자 배우자의 돌봄 경험에 대한 이론 구축)

  • Choi, Kyung-Sook;Eun, Young
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.122-136
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    • 2000
  • Chronic illness requiring attention and management during a long period of time puts great burden onto patients, their family and society. For patients with chronic illnesses, providing social support is the most important, and the fundamental support comes from their spouses. Amount and quality of support from spouses seems to differentiated according to the sex of patients. Female patients tend to believe that their spouses are not very supportive. Therefore, the researchers assessed the burden of husbands of female arthritis patients to discover the factors that result in greater burden. Also, they developed a theoretical model of husbands′ care for their wives through a qualitative research into husbands′ experience. Method 1: The study material was 650 female arthritis patients registered in an arthritis clinic. The questionnaire about the disease experience of female arthritis patients and the burden of husbands were sent. Returned questionnaires numbered 210(32.3%) and 27 were excluded because of inadequate answers. The remaining 183 questionnaires were analyzed. The mean age of the patients was 51 years and the mean age of spouses was 55 years. The mean marital period was 28 years. The average duration since diagnosis was 9.1 years. Education level was varied from primary school to graduate school, and average income/month was 1,517,300 won. Method 2: Initial questionnaire studies on the burden of husbands were performed. Among 183 responding husbands, 23 consented to participate for a qualitative research. Data was obtained by direct and telephone interviews. The mean age of participants was 58 years, and the educational level and socioeconomic status also varied. Result: 1. Husbands′ burden: The average burden was 57.68 with a range of 6-96. 2. Burden and general characteristics: The husband′s burden correlated with the age of the patients, numbers in the family, therapy methods, patient′s level of discomfort, patient′s disease severity, patient′s level of dependence and the husband′s understanding of the level of severity. 3. Linear correlation analysis on burden: The husbands′ burden is explained in 22.5% by husband′s recognition of level of severity and husbands′ age. 4. There were four patterns of the burden on husbands: both objectve burden and subjective burden were high(pattern I), both of objectve burden and subjective burden were low(pattern II), objective burden was high but subjective burden was low(pattern III), objective burden was low but subjective burden was high(pattern IV). The pattern was correlated with the family income, educational level of the patients and their husbands, therapy methods, patient′s level of discomfort, patient′s disease severity, patient′s level of dependence and husband′s understanding of level of severity. 5. The core category of the caring experience of the husbands with arthritis patients was "companionship". The causal factor was the patients′ experience due to symptoms : physical disfigurement, pain, immobility, limitation of house chores, and limitation of social activities. Contextural factors are husbands′ identification of housework and husbands′ concern about the disease. The mediating factors are economic problems, fear of aging, feeling of limitation and family support. The strategy for interaction is mind control and how to solve emotional stress. The "companionship" resulted from caring activities, participation of household activities, helping patients′ to coping with emotional experience. 6. Companionship is established through the process of entering intervention, and caring state of mind. Entering intervention is the phase of participation of therapy and involvement of houseworks. The caring phase consists of decision on therapy, providing therapy, providing direct care, and taking over the household role of wife. Through caring phase, the changing phase set a stage in which husbands consolidate the relationship with their wives, and are reminded of the meaning of marriage. As a result, in changing phase, husbands′ companionship is enhanced. In conclusion, nursing care of chronic illnesses should include a family member especially the spouse. All information on disease shoud be provided to patients and whole family member. Strong support should also be provided to overcome difficulties in taking over role of other sex. Then the quality of life of patients and families will be much improved.

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A Study on Economic Value of Daegu Arboretum based on Contingent Valuation Methods (가상가치평가법을 이용한 대구수목원의 경제적 가치평가)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae;Lee, Kee-Cheol;Lee, Hyun-Taek;Ryu, Byong-Ro;Kim, Dong-Pil
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.787-798
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    • 2011
  • An arboretum is defined as a collection of facilities that conserve plant species by surveying, collecting, and proliferating and preserving the plants in nature, perform diverse researches on plants and display the plants in exhibition spaces or outdoors as well as provide the public with educational programs and refreshment spaces according to the laws concerned. The public, however, recognizes the exhibition and education functions on plants of arboretum more importantly compared with the roles to survey, collect, and proliferate plants as regulated by the laws. In particular, arboretum plays a role to offer a pivotal educational place in urban area where the public can obtain an hands-on experience and understanding on a wide range of plant species and natural environment. The study aims to estimate the non market environmental values of Daegu Arboretum operated by Daegu Metropolitan City government by using the Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM), which yields the current monetary estimates for the arboretum. The value estimation was undertaken by using the Double-Bound Dichotomous Choice (DBDC) method, and each estimated value was derived from respective functions based on a logit distribution known to include relatively stable estimates according to the shape of the distribution. Considering the statistical fitness test results, the author estimated the amounts of the Willingness To Pay (WTP) such as mean WTP of 12,718 KRW, median WTP of 11,033 KRW, and truncated mean WTP of 11,468 KRW, which represented the annual recreational values per a person visiting Daegu Arboretum respectively. The analysis showed that Daegu Arboretum created the annual environmental values which were estimated to be approximately 16 to 19 billion KRW. The study also has an implication that the valuation method for the environment of Daegu Arboretum may be effectively applied for estimating the values of other types of environmental goods by altering the locations or goods to be analyzed.

A Study of on the Method to Select Manufacturing Activities Sensitive to Regional Characteristics by Analyzing the Locational Hierarchy (입지계층분석을 활용한 산업단지 유치 업종 결정에 관한 연구)

  • So, Jin-Kwang;Lee, Hyeon-Joo;Kim, Sun-Woo
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.559-568
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    • 2011
  • This study aims at listing up those manufacturing activities sensitive to regional characteristics by analyzing locational hierarchy designed on the urban rank-size rule. This locational hierarchy by manufacturing activities is expected to provide a ground for the proper supply of an industrial complex. The analysis of the locational hierarchy by manufacturing activities can work as a method of observing the characteristics of the distribution of location for each economic activity by analyzing the trend in the change of manufacturing location. Consequently, it can be used to determine the appropriate manufacturing activities for the industrial complex of a particular region. Here, the locational hierarchy is analyzed depending on the base of the basic local government such as Gun(district level) and Si(city level), and manufacturing activities are categorized by Korea Standard Industry Code. Those activities demonstrating growth pattern are Manufacture of Electronic Equipment(KSIC 26), Manufacture of Medical Precision Optical Instruments Watch(KSIC 27), Manufacture of Motor Vehicles (KSIC 30, 31), etc. With proper infrastructures, these activities can be located everywhere. Those sectors on the decline pattern in the locational hierarchy can be summarized as Manufacture of Tobacco Products(KSIC 12), Manufacture of wearing apparel Fur Articles(KSIC 14), etc. Those sectors scattered widely in the locational hierarchy are Manufacture of Food Products(KSIC 10), Manufacture of Coke Petroleum Products(KSIC 19), Manufacture of Chemical Products(KSIC 20), Manufacture of Electronic Equipment(KSIC 26). These particular manufacturing activities can be operated in those regions in a sufficient supply of unskilled workers regardless of proper infrastructures. Those activities that have a tendency to reconcentrate on larger cities are Manufacture of Textiles(KSIC 13), Manufacture of Wearing Apparel Clothing Fur Articles(KSIC 14), Manufacture of Other Transport Equiptmen(KSIC 31). In most cases, these sectors tend to favor their existing agglomerated areas and concentrate around large cities. Therefore, it is inefficient to promote these sectors in small or medium-sized cities or underdeveloped regions. The establishment of developmental strategies of an industrial complex can gain greater competitiveness by observing such characteristics of the locational hierarchy.

Composting Method and Physicochemical Characteristics of By-products from Home Garden Plants and Small Herbivore Feces (옥수수 부산물과 토끼 분변의 이화학적 성분특성 및 퇴비 제조조건)

  • Kim, Dae-Gyun;Kim, Jin-Young;Lee, Won-Suk;Kim, Hye-Hyeong;Seo, Myung-Whoon;Park, In-Tae;Hyun, Junge;Yoo, Gayoung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.695-703
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to suggest a sustainable farming practice forresource recycling in vegetable gardens of North Korea. In North Korea, farmers are allowed to own private vegetable gardens less than $100m^2$. However, usage of fertilizers in private vegetable gardens is very limited due to economic sanctions by UN security council. If North and South Korea initiated the cooperative action in the near future, agricultural sector would be the highest priority cooperation area. Considering the current North Korean situation in agriculture, we would like to suggest a method for producing organic fertilizer manure. For raw materials for producing manure, we selected corn byproduct, which is the most abundant material, and rabbits' feces, which are easily obtained from individual private farms in North Korea. As we cannot get corn byproducts and rabbits' feces from North Korea, we prepared samples of corn byproducts and rabbits; feces from many places in South Korea. After statistical analysis of variance, there was no significant difference in the T-N contents of corn byproducts from Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungnam, Chungbuk, Jeollabuk and Gyeongsangnam-dos, which indicates that the fertilizing quality of corn byproducts does not vary significantly in the spatial scale of South. Korea. In this sense, if we use corn samples from Gyeonggi province, they would not be very different from those of North Korean regions. Physicochemical properties of rabbits' feces were different between those eating feed grains and those eating plants only. Hence, we used rabbits' feces of the rabbits from Yeonchun area, which were fed by plants only. Using three different mixing ratios of corn byproducts and rabbits' feces, composting was conducted for 60 days. The mixing ratio of 1:1 produced the manure with % T-N of 1.98% and OM/N ratio of 31.7 after 30 days of composting, which is comparable to the quality of commercial manure.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A Study on the Management Method in Accordance with the Vegetation Structure of Geumgang Pine (Pinus densiflora) Forest in Sogwang-ri, Uljin (울진 소광리 금강소나무림 식생구조 특성에 따른 관리방안)

  • Kim, Dong-Wook;Han, Bong-Ho;Park, Seok-Cheol;Kim, Jong-Yup
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2022
  • The Geumgang Pine (Pinus densiflora) Forest in Sogwang-ri, Uljin has traditionally been a pine tree protection area (prohibited forest) for timber production purposes, and is now designated and managed as a protected area for forest genetic resource conservation by the Korea Forest Service. This study, we analyzed topographical characteristics, existing vegetation, tree age, and plant community structure, and proposed a sustainable management method for the Geumgang Pine (Pinus densiflora) Forest in Sogwang-ri, Uljin for timber havesting purposes. The topographical characteristics of the target area were 36.7% ridges and 38.7% valleys; the ratio of ridges to valleys was similar, and the slopes formed 24.7% of the total area. The types of pine forest communities are divided into six types based on the progress of pine forest renewal, the competition with other species such as deciduous broadleaf trees, and the formation of layered structures. It has been confirmed that the age of the large-diameter pine trees (40~60cm in diameter) is approximately 60~70 years, which is relatively low. As a result of the analysis of the relative importance percentage and layered structure, differences depended on the progress of the pine forest renewal project, and not only the maintenance of the pine forest, but also the creation of a secondary growth forest, the density adjustment of pine trees, and the active management of competitive trees. The average basal area by the community was 12,642.1~25,424.4cm2 for the tree layer and 1.8~1,956.5cm2 for the low tree layer based on a quadrat of 400m2. The difference in the basal area appeared to depend on the size and number of trees forming the tree layer and the degree of pine forest renewal (the degree of time elapsed after thinning pine trees). The average number of species that appeared in each community was 8.7-20.3; there were many species located in valleys, and the type competes with deciduous broadleaf trees due to the lack of management. The diversity of species ranged from 0.6915-1.0942, and was evaluated as low compared to pine communities in central temperate zones. In this paper, we determined the management goals of Geumgang Pine (Pinus densiflora) Forest in Sogwang-ri, Uljin to produce timber with high economic value, and suggested efficient vegetation management for continuous afforestation, the establishment of a timber production system, and improvement of wood production as a management direction.

Estimation of the Korean Yield Curve via Bayesian Variable Selection (베이지안 변수선택을 이용한 한국 수익률곡선 추정)

  • Koo, Byungsoo
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.84-132
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    • 2020
  • A central bank infers market expectations of future yields based on yield curves. The central bank needs to precisely understand the changes in market expectations of future yields in order to have a more effective monetary policy. This need explains why a range of models have attempted to produce yield curves and market expectations that are as accurate as possible. Alongside the development of bond markets, the interconnectedness between them and macroeconomic factors has deepened, and this has rendered understanding of what macroeconomic variables affect yield curves even more important. However, the existence of various theories about determinants of yields inevitably means that previous studies have applied different macroeconomics variables when estimating yield curves. This indicates model uncertainties and naturally poses a question: Which model better estimates yield curves? Put differently, which variables should be applied to better estimate yield curves? This study employs the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model and takes the Bayesian approach to variable selection in order to ensure precision in estimating yield curves and market expectations of future yields. Bayesian variable selection may be an effective estimation method because it is expected to alleviate problems arising from a priori selection of the key variables comprising a model, and because it is a comprehensive approach that efficiently reflects model uncertainties in estimations. A comparison of Bayesian variable selection with the models of previous studies finds that the question of which macroeconomic variables are applied to a model has considerable impact on market expectations of future yields. This shows that model uncertainties exert great influence on the resultant estimates, and that it is reasonable to reflect model uncertainties in the estimation. Those implications are underscored by the superior forecasting performance of Bayesian variable selection models over those models used in previous studies. Therefore, the use of a Bayesian variable selection model is advisable in estimating yield curves and market expectations of yield curves with greater exactitude in consideration of the impact of model uncertainties on the estimation.