• Title/Summary/Keyword: econometric model

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Outbound Air Travel Demand Forecasting Model with Unobserved Regional Characteristics (미관찰 지역 특성을 고려한 내국인 국제선 항공수요 추정 모형)

  • YU, Jeong Whon;CHOI, Jung Yoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.141-154
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    • 2018
  • In order to meet the ever-increasing demand for international air travel, several plans are underway to open new airports and expand existing provincial airports. However, existing air demand forecasts have been based on the total air demand in Korea or the air demand among major cities. There is not much forecast of regional air demand considering local characteristics. In this study, the outbound air travel demand in the southeastern region of Korea was analyzed and the fixed-effects model using panel data was proposed as an optimal model that can reflect the inherent characteristics of metropolitan areas which are difficult to observe in reality. The results of model validation show that panel data analysis effectively addresses the spurious regression and unobserved heterogeneity that are difficult to handle in a model using only a few macroeconomic indicators with time series characteristics. Various statistical validation and conformance tests suggest that the fixed-effects model proposed in this study is superior to other econometric models in predicting demand for international demand in the southeastern region.

An Estimation on the Market Size of Aqua-cultured Flatfish in Korea (양식 넙치 중장기 시장 규모 추정)

  • Kim, Bae-Sung;Kim, Chung-Hyeon;Cho, Jae-Hwan;Lee, Nam-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.7781-7787
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of This paper is to address the development on supply-demand outlook model of aqua-cultured korean Flatfish and introduces a projection of supply-demand and market prices during 2015-2017 using developed model. The supply-demand outlook model is composed as a partial equilibrium model of Korean Flat fish. Each equation in the model is estimated by the econometric techniques. A reviews of the demand-outlook model stability is also carried out by the references based on RMSPE. MAPE, and Theil's inequality coefficients. According to the reference of RMSPE, the error rates of the forecasting values of the aqua culture area, culturing quantity, production quantity, market price show less than 4%, The production quantity and farm price are predicted respectively to be 42,561MT and 10,191KW per kg in 2017.

An Analysis of the Effects in the TAC System by Analyzing Catch of TAC Target Species (TAC 어종의 어획량 분석을 통한 TAC 제도의 효과 분석)

  • Sim, Seonghyun;Lee, Jungsam;Oh, Seoyeon
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.157-169
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    • 2020
  • This study aimed to analyze the effect of total allowable catches (TACs) on the target species. First to effects analyse of TACs, the 8 TAC target species and 75 non-target species were selected for which catch data were available before and after the introduction of the TACs. The 8 target species were simply compared to catch changes before and after TACs. Through the comparison, it was confirmed how the catches of target fishes have changed after the implementation of the TACs. Secondly, the Difference In Differences(DID) analysis was conducted to confirm the effects of the TACs on the catches of the target fishes using the catch data of 8 TAC target species and 75 non-TAC species. Finally, to overcome the limitations of the DID analysis, the random effects model was estimated to confirm the effects of the TACs on the catch of the TAC target species. Overall, this study confirmed that the TACs affects catches of target species, not only through simple comparisons of catches before and after the introduction of the TACs but also through econometric analysis.

Does CO2 and Its Possible Determinants are Playing Their Role in the Environmental Degradation in Turkey. Environment Kuznets Curve Does Exist in Turkey.

  • RAHMAN, Zia Ur
    • Journal of Wellbeing Management and Applied Psychology
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.19-37
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    • 2019
  • Over the last few decades, the atmospheric carbon dioxide emission has been amplified to a great extent in Turkey. This amplification may cause global warming, climate change and environmental degradation in Turkey. Consequently, ecological condition and human life may suffer in the near future from these indicated threats. Therefore, an attempt was made to test the relationship among a number of expected factors and carbon dioxide emissions in the case of Turkey. The study covers the time series data over the period of 1970-2017. We employed the modern econometric techniques such as Johansen co-integration, ARDL bound testing approach and the block exogeneity. The results of the Johansen co-integration test show that there is a significant long-run relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and expected factors. The long-run elasticities of the ARDL model show that a 1% increase in the GDP per capita, electric consumption, fiscal development and trade openness will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 0.14, 0.52, 0.09 and 0.20% respectively. Further, our findings reveal that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon dioxide emission and economic growth prevails. Therefore, the EKC hypothesis is valid and prevailing in the Turkish economy. The diagnostic test results show that the parameters of the ARDL model are credible, sTable and reliable in the current form. Finally, Block exogeneity analysis displays that all the expected factors are contributing significantly to carbon dioxide emissions in the Turkish economy.

The benefit analysis of constructing the visual conservation center (영상자료센터 건립사업의 경제적 편익)

  • Jeong, Ki-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.885-893
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    • 2011
  • Visual conservation center is a facility for the preservation of visual materials such as film and digital image data, and its construction project is currently being considered. This study evaluates the economic benefit of the project using CVM (Contingent Valuation Method), the main method of nonmarket evaluation in the both domestic and foreign literature. Survey data used in the analysis was collected in seven major metropolitan cities using person-to-person interviews and a logit model is used for the econometric estimation. The economic benefit measured by a household's average willing to pay (WTP) per year is shown to amount to 8,958 won.

An Econometric Analysis of Imported Softwood Log Markets in South Korea - on the Basis of the Lagged Dependent Variable -

  • Park, Yong Bae;Youn, Yeo-Chang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.98 no.2
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    • pp.148-155
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is to know market structures of softwood logs being imported to South Korea from log producing countries. Import demand of softwood logs imported to South Korea from America, New Zealand and Chile is fixed as a function of log prices, the lagged dependent variable and output. On the basis of the adaptive expectations model, linear regression models that the explanatory variables included and the lagged dependent variable were estimated by Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE). The short-run and long-run own price elasticity of America's softwood log import demand is -1.738 and -4.250 respectively. Then long-run elasticity is much higher than short-run elasticity. Short-run and long-run crosselasticity of New Zealand's softwood log import demand with respect to American's softwood log import price are inelastic at 0.505 and 0.883 respectively. Short-run and long-run cross-elasticity of Chile's softwood log import demands with respect to American's softwood log import prices were highly elastic at 2.442 and 4.462 respectively. Long-run elasticity was almost twice as high as short-run elasticity.

Factors Affecting Financial Risk: Evidence from Listed Enterprises in Vietnam

  • DANG, Hang Thu;PHAN, Duong Thuy;NGUYEN, Ha Thi;HOANG, Le Hong Thi
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.9
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2020
  • This paper analyzes factors affecting enterprise's financial risk listed on the Vietnam stock market. The panel data of research sample includes 524 non-financial listed enterprises on the Vietnam stock market for a period of eleven years, from 2009 to 2019. The Generalized Least Square (GLS) is employed to address econometric issues and to improve the accuracy of the regression coefficients. In this research, financial risk is measured by the Alexander Bathory model. Debt structure, Solvency, Profitability, Operational ability, Capital structure are independent variables in the study. Firm Size, firm age, growth rate are control variables. The model results show that in order to prevent and limit financial risk for enterprises listed on the Vietnam Stock Market, attention should be paid to variables reflecting Liability structure ratio, Quick Ratio, Return on Assets, Total asset turnover, Accounts receivable turnover, Net assets ratio and Fixed assets ratio. The empirical results show that there are differences in the impact of these factors on the financial risk in state-owned enterprises and non-state enterprises listed on the Vietnam stock market. The findings of this article are useful for business administrators, helping business managers make the right financial decisions to improve the efficiency of financial risk management in enterprises.

Estimation of economic benefits of biodegradable fishing net by using contingent valuation method (CVM) (CVM을 이용한 생분해성 어구의 경제적 편익 분석)

  • Park, Seong-Wook;Kwon, Hyeok-Jun;Park, Seong-Kwae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.265-275
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    • 2010
  • The main purpose of this study is to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) by the general publics, assuming that they pay tax or charge for protecting marine living resources and environment through developing and supplying biodegradable fishing nets. This study employed a contingent valuation method (CVM) which is an econometric method. The survey was conducted by using both double-bounded dichotomous choice and open-ended survey. Tobit model was used for the analysis. The variables included concerns about marine environment and fishing net discarded, sex, age profile, number of family members, educational level and personal disposable income. Annual average WTP per family for the biodegradable fishing net development and supply was estimated at 5,294 won and national WTP amounted to some 84.2 billion won. This includes both of use and non-use value of biodegradable fishing nets.

The Determinants of Listed Commercial Banks' Profitability in Vietnam

  • PHAN, Hai Thanh;HOANG, Tien Ngoc;DINH, Linh Viet;HOANG, Dat Ngoc
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.219-229
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    • 2020
  • The study investigates the factors affecting the profitability of listed commercial banks in Vietnam. Survey data for this research were collected from 10 Vietnamese listed commercial banks for the period from 2008 to 2018. In the study, we have built a model of econometric regression with the dependent variable being listed commercial banks' profitability results measured through ROA. The research methods used include descriptive statistics, IV regression and OLS regression analysis, and the authors carried out the model verification with Stata 14 software. The results showed that operating efficiency, loans size, retail loans ratio, state ownership, inflation rate, and GDP growth are factors that have a positive impact on profitability On the other hand, variables such as capital size, credit risk, liquidity risk, bank size, and revenue diversification are statistically insignificant; hence, these variables are not statistically adequate to indicate the influence of those independent variables to banks' profitability. The findings of this study suggest that the quality of assets should be considered in the context that bad debt risks come from lending heavily to the real estate sector. Meeting Basel II's capital compliance requirements is relatively difficult for small listed commercial banks compared to bigger listed commercial banks in Vietnam.

Factors Influencing Farm-Gate Shrimp Prices in Thailand: An Empirical Study Using the Time Series Method

  • MUANGSRISUN, Donlathorn;JATUPORN, Chalermpon;SEERASARN, Nareerut;WANASET, Apinya
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.769-775
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    • 2021
  • The objective of this research was to analyze the factors influencing the farm-gate shrimp prices in Thailand using monthly time series from January 2001 to December 2019. The econometric methodology was employed to satisfy the purpose, consisting of the cointegration test for revealing the long-run relationship and equilibrium elasticity between the variables as well as the error correction model for detecting speed adjustment to shock responses. The empirical results revealed that (1) the export shrimp prices, shrimp production in the country, and shrimp export volume indicated a long-run relationship running to the farm-gate shrimp prices in Thailand with the size of equilibrium elasticity equal to 1.083%, -0.256%, and 0.123, respectively, and (2) the farm-gate shrimp prices in Thailand would adjust to the equilibrium line with a speed equal to 20.147% if there was any kind of incident or shock which caused the relationship to deviate from the equilibrium point. There was no relationship in terms of global shrimp prices and the exchange rate for farm-gate shrimp prices in Thailand. The recommendations should emphasize the varieties of shrimp products for export to other countries beyond the main trading markets nowadays to reduce risks and fluctuations in the export prices of shrimp products.