• Title/Summary/Keyword: econometric analysis

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Determinants of Korea's Trade before and after the 2008 Financial Crisis Activating Augmented Gravity Model (중력모형을 이용한 2008년 금융위기 전후 한국의 교역결정요인 분석)

  • Lee, Doowon;Kim, Donghee;Park, Seokwon
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.243-274
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    • 2012
  • This research analyzes the determinants of Korea's trade using the Gravity model, Chow test and panel data anaysis. According to the pooled panel OLS analysis using the gravity model and Chow-test, Korea's trade patterns before and after the 2008 financial crisis are heterogeneous. Variables of basic gravity model, GDP per capita, distance, and population, identically showed positive and significant correlation with trade volume before and after financial crisis, but also equally showed the decrease in absolute value of coefficient. On the other hands, Overseas Direct Investments(ODI) variable showed the increase in absolute value of coefficient. But TCI was no longer significant. This research is significant in that it is able to show the strategy for the long term growth in Korea's volume of international trade through econometric analysis based on data of 55 trading partner of Korea.

The Chilling Trade Effects of Provisional Anti-dumping Duties: The Case of Korea

  • Sun, Joo Yeon
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This study empirically analyzes the effects of provisional anti-dumping duties levied on imports by Korea following anti-dumping investigations. An anti-dumping duty is a legal tool that countries use to impose duties on imports to offset injurious dumping. This study verifies how effective the imposition of a provisional anti-dumping duty is and whether such duties have trade chilling effects on aggregate imports. Specifically, this study examines import trade diversion from named to unnamed countries caused by the imposition of provisional anti-dumping duties. Design/methodology - This empirical analysis employs an econometric model of provisional anti-dumping measures for cases in which Korea imposed final affirmative anti-dumping measures. We construct a monthly panel dataset for each stage of anti-dumping investigation undertaken by Korea for all manufacturing industries during 1995-2013. We illustrate a stage-by-stage analysis of anti-dumping investigations from initiation, preliminary decision, imposition of provisional duty, final affirmative decision, and imposition of final affirmative duty on a monthly basis at the six-digit harmonized system code-level. Findings - For cases in which provisional duties are imposed, the reduction in imports from named countries outweighs the increase in imports from unnamed countries. The substantial reduction in imports from named countries is large enough to offset the import diversion to unnamed countries, suggesting that import diversion in investigations is limited during the investigation period. Therefore, the use of provisional anti-dumping duties in Korea is effective, providing evidence of a chilling effect on aggregate imports. Originality/value - Few studies examine the size of the effects on import trade diversion of the imposition of provisional anti-dumping duties. We contribute to the literature by disentangling separate trade effects for each phase of the anti-dumping investigation process and imposition of provisional duty.

An Analysis of Job Selection, Major-Job Match and Wage Level of College Graduates (대학 졸업생의 직업선택과 임금 수준)

  • Park, Jae-Min
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.22-39
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    • 2011
  • This study examines the wage level from a viewpoint of major-job match as part of an analysis on the skill mismatch problem in 4-year college graduates. The empirical analysis explicitly incorporate the sample selection bias as an econometric problem not only suggested but merely introduced in the earlier studies. This study also set up a major-job match variable, which was usually handled as a binary variable for analytical convenience, as a polychotomous choice variable in selection equation as provided by the survey. In particular, it considered multi-cohort survey on graduates of the years 1982, 1992, and 2002 for the empirical analysis. As a result of empirical analysis, the wage premium of a major-job match was identified. This result was consistent after the consideration of a sample selection bias and also after modeling the major-job match variable as polychotomously selective. Through an analysis classified by the major, this study identified a relatively high wage premium among Social Science, Engineering, and Science majors. However, there was a difference in the effect of selection among these majors. Also, by assessing cohort effects this study found that the skill mismatch had rapidly progressed in 1992, while difference between 1992 and 2002 cohorts are insignificant. The analysis suggests that wage level is better understood within the context of both sample selection and major-job match, and regardless of model specification the major-job match affects wage strongly.

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The analysis of consumers' satisfaction about the 6th industry antenna shops

  • Kim, Young-Sue;Ryu, In-Hwan;Kwon, Oh-Sung;Kim, Sounghun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.688-703
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    • 2016
  • The 6th industrialization, which is the policy strategy to combine the 1st, 2nd, 3rd agro-food industries in order to create synergy effects, is one of the most important policy strategies for the Korean government. Local governments as well as the central government, especially the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, have introduced various specific programs for the 6th industrialization. Among them, the 6th industry antenna shops located in Cheonan and Daejeon which were introduced by the Chungcheongnam-do Provincial Government to offer a better market place for 6th industry producers. However, few studies have been conducted to evaluate the performance of 6th industry antenna shops. The purpose of this paper is to analyze consumers' satisfaction of 6th industry antenna shops through survey and econometric modeling and to present some implications of the better operation of the 6th industry antenna shops. The results of the studies in this paper present some of the following findings: first, the overall level of satisfaction towards 6th industry antenna shops is high but consumers still claim some problems. Second, products which are sold at 6th industry antenna shops have important problems, including high prices and deficient product variety. Third, if these problems were fixed, the operation of 6th industry antenna shops would be successful and contribute to the development of 6th industrialization in Korea.

A study of developing the efficiency test model of benefit enterprises in enterprise support business by using DEA (기업지원사업 수혜기업의 효율성 평가모형 개발에 관한 연구 - DEA를 적용하여 -)

  • Lee, Jong-Young;Kim, Myoung-Ho
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-75
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    • 2010
  • Gangwon-do has evaluated the result of technical support business and marketing support business separately as a part of enterprise support business, and the evaluation, targeting enterprises, has been restricted to the investigation of satisfaction only. The study develops the model that assesses the efficiency of the enterprises using DEA, the econometric model which is approved the utility in efficiency evaluation, and evaluates it through the model. As a result, the model can be developed to the appropriate variable of the enterprise support business using the elements of input and output in the business. And by using the model of DEA, it is suggested the efficiency measurement of each enterprises' and improvement that inefficient enterprises must have. Especially, it is important to assess the efficiency of supporting enterprises primary.

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Study on the Long-Term Demand Projections for Timber in Korea (우리나라 목재수요(木材需要)의 장기여측에(長期予測) 관(関)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Jang Soo;Park, Ho Tak
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 1980
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze and to forecast the long-term domestic demand and export demand for timber in Korea by regression models with time series data during 1962~1978. The method applied in this study was econometric analysis using Time Series Processor. The most important explanatory variables of timber demand were found to be the production activities of wood products industries to the prices of substitute goods. On the basis of the long-term forecast made according to the guidelines of the Fifth Five-Year Plan. According to the projection, domestic timber demand is projected at 8 million cubic meters in 1987 and 10.6 million cubic meters in 1991. On the other hand, the total demand (domestic demand plus export demand) for timber is projected 21.4 million cubic meters in 1987 and 27.2 million cubic meters in 1991.

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Priority Setting and Technological Innovation Strategies for Future Growth Engine Industries: Focusing on the development of the Korea Future Technology Index (미래성장동력 선정을 위한 새로운 방법론 모색: 한국미래기술지수의 개발을 중심으로)

  • Bae, Yonh-Ho;Choi, Ji-Sun;Hwang, Seog-Won;Lee, Woo-Sung;Koh, Myoung-Ju
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.85-114
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    • 2011
  • This paper aims at developing a new index that represents the Korean new growth industries, which is named the Korea Future Technology Index(KOFTI). The KOFTI is designed to provide a reliable and econometric index based on which the Korean government searches for new growth engines. The KOFTI is composed of three individual indexes such as the Economic Impact Index, the Future Strategy Index, and the Technological Influence Index. The KOFTI is applied for 62 star brands, which have been promoted by the Korean government for the korean future industrial competitiveness. The top 13 leading industries are drawn from the calculation of the KOFTI for 62 star brands.

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Empirical Analysis on Cultural Industry Demand in Chung-Buk Province (충북 문화산업 수요의 실증적 분석)

  • Jung, Cho-See;Shin, Gil-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.7 no.10
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    • pp.165-174
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    • 2007
  • It is expected that demand for cultural industry will be increased rapidly with economic growth. But it is doubtful how much desire of demander to be fulfilled. Because cultural products have public goods characteristics and they are supplied by government. Therefore this paper analysed deterministic factors of cultural demands in Chung-buk province, and suggested criteria of cultural products, which is supplied by regional government. For these purposes, we analysed three topics, first, deterministic factors of demander's satisfaction, second deterministic factors of cultural demand type, which are classified by type of participants and spectators, third deterministic factors of leisure type, which are classified by goods intensive leisure and time intensive leisure, and we analysed these through econometric methods. And we tried to suggest optimal criteria for cultural products supply by regional government, which needs of demanders are fully fulfilled.

한국의 CO2 배출, 경제성장 및 에너지믹스와의 관계 분석

  • Jeong, Yong-Hun;Kim, Su-Lee
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.271-299
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    • 2012
  • The relationship between environment and economic growth has been controversial for a long time. The cores of controversy are endogeneity problem and omitted variable bias. This paper tests EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curves) hypothesis by considering econometric issues and estimates the effects of energy mix on $CO_2$ emissions empirically and tests with time series during 1981~2008. By the results of this analysis, we convince EKC Hypothesis which the relationship between $CO_2$ emissions and economic growth is the inverted U-shaped and the national energy mix contributes significantly to GHG mitigation. We also find that the nuclear energy has the greatest contribution for $CO_2$ mitigation and the renewable energy does not seem to contribute little to the $CO_2$ mitigation because the proportion of renewable energy in Korea is negligible. In terms of final energy consumption, $CO_2$ increases and transportation sector is statistically and significantly associated.

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Analysis on the Factors of Re-employment of Veterans After Long-term Military Service (장기복무 제대군인 취업진로 결정요인 분석)

  • Lee, Sung-Heui;Won, Jongwook
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.139-159
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    • 2004
  • This paper explores the determinants of re-employment of retired military personnel who served more than ten years in Korea. Recently, the re-employment rate of veterans is less than 30%. Considering the reduction in military forces in future, this very low rate of re-employment may be one of important social and economic problem. Using a survey and econometric analyses, we generate several important results. First, spouses' income is higher in the group who chose to run their own business than in the group who decided to become salary workers. Second, those who gave economic activities had longer the period of military service, higher ranks, and higher rate of being in bad health. Third, the longer the military service period is, the shorter the period of job search. And those who not taking the program of vocational guidance have short search period. If, however, one was more educated or one served longer in Seoul area, then she is more likely to have a longer search period. These results imply that the current important factors in government policies for veterans such as vocational guidance programs, information for employment, and military experience should be improved to be more oriented to the requirements of employers.

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