• Title/Summary/Keyword: earthquake risk analysis

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Earthquake risk assessment of underground railway station by fragility analysis based on numerical simulation

  • Kwon, Sun Yong;Yoo, Mintaek;Hong, Seongwon
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2020
  • Korean society experienced successive earthquakes exceeding 5.0 magnitude in the past three years resulting in an increasing concern about earthquake stability of urban infrastructures. This study focuses on the significant aspects of earthquake risk assessment for the cut-and-cover underground railway station based on two-dimensional dynamic numerical analysis. Presented are features from a case study performed for the railway station in Seoul, South Korea. The PLAXIS2D was employed for numerical simulation and input of the earthquake ground motion was chosen from Pohang earthquake records (M5.4). The paper shows key aspects of earthquake risk for soil-structure system varying important parameters including embedded depth, supported ground information, and applied seismicity level, and then draws several meaningful conclusions from the analysis results such as seismic risk assessment.

Development of a Targeted Recommendation Model for Earthquake Risk Prevention in the Whole Disaster Chain

  • Su, Xiaohui;Ming, Keyu;Zhang, Xiaodong;Liu, Junming;Lei, Da
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.14-27
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    • 2021
  • Strong earthquakes have caused substantial losses in recent years, and earthquake risk prevention has aroused a significant amount of attention. Earthquake risk prevention products can help improve the self and mutual-rescue abilities of people, and can create convenient conditions for earthquake relief and reconstruction work. At present, it is difficult for earthquake risk prevention information systems to meet the information requirements of multiple scenarios, as they are highly specialized. Aiming at mitigating this shortcoming, this study investigates and analyzes four user roles (government users, public users, social force users, insurance market users), and summarizes their requirements for earthquake risk prevention products in the whole disaster chain, which comprises three scenarios (pre-quake preparedness, in-quake warning, and post-quake relief). A targeted recommendation rule base is then constructed based on the case analysis method. Considering the user's location, the earthquake magnitude, and the time that has passed since the earthquake occurred, a targeted recommendation model is built. Finally, an Android APP is implemented to realize the developed model. The APP can recommend multi-form earthquake risk prevention products to users according to their requirements under the three scenarios. Taking the 2019 Lushan earthquake as an example, the APP exhibits that the model can transfer real-time information to everyone to reduce the damage caused by an earthquake.

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment of a typical Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant (NGCCPP) control building

  • A. Can Zulfikar;Seyhan Okuyan Akcan;Ali Yesilyurt;Murat Eroz;Tolga Cimili
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.581-591
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    • 2023
  • North Anatolian Fault Zone is tectonically active with recent earthquakes (Mw7.6 1999-Kocaeli and Mw7.2 1999-Düzce earthquakes) and it passes through Marmara region, which is highly industrialized, densely populated and economically important part of Turkey. Many power plants, located in Marmara region, are exposed to high seismic hazard. In this study, open source OpenQuake software has been used for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis of Marmara region and risk assessment for the specified energy facility. The SHARE project seismic zonation model has been used in the analysis with the regional sources, NGA GMPEs and site model logic trees. The earthquake hazard results have been compared with the former and existing earthquake resistant design regulations in Turkey, TSC 2007 and TBSCD 2018. In the scope of the study, the seismic hazard assessment for a typical natural gas combined cycle power plant located in Marmara region has been achieved. The seismic risk assessment has been accomplished for a typical control building located in the power plant using obtained seismic hazard results. The structural and non-structural fragility functions and a consequence model have been used in the seismic risk assessment. Based on the seismic hazard level with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considered for especially these type of critical structures, the ratios of structural and non-structural loss to the total building cost were obtained as 8.8% and 45.7%, respectively. The results of the study enable the practical seismic risk assessment of the critical facility located on different regions.

Development of an earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment approach for nuclear power plants

  • Kwag, Shinyoung;Hahm, Daegi
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.1372-1386
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    • 2018
  • Despite recent advances in multi-hazard analysis, the complexity and inherent nature of such problems make quantification of the landslide effect in a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of NPPs challenging. Therefore, in this paper, a practical approach was presented for performing an earthquake-induced landslide PSA for NPPs subject to seismic hazard. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to Korean typical NPP in Korea as a numerical example. The assessment result revealed the quantitative probabilistic effects of peripheral slope failure and subsequent run-out effect on the risk of core damage frequency (CDF) of a NPP during the earthquake event. Parametric studies were conducted to demonstrate how parameters for slope, and physical relation between the slope and NPP, changed the CDF risk of the NPP. Finally, based on these results, the effective strategies were suggested to mitigate the CDF risk to the NPP resulting from the vulnerabilities inherent in adjacent slopes. The proposed approach can be expected to provide an effective framework for performing the earthquake-induced landslide PSA and decision support to increase NPP safety.

Seismic analysis and performance for stone pagoda structure under Gyeongju earthquake in Korea

  • Kim, Ho-Soo;Kim, Dong-Kwan;Jeon, Geon-Woo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.531-549
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    • 2021
  • Analytical models were developed and seismic behaviors were analyzed for a three-story stone pagoda at the Cheollyongsa temple site, which was damaged by the Gyeongju earthquake of 2016. Both finite and discrete element modeling were used and the analysis results were compared to the actual earthquake damage. Vulnerable parts of stone pagoda structure were identified and their seismic behaviors via sliding, rocking, and risk analyses were verified. In finite and discrete element analyses, the 3F main body stone was displaced uniaxially by 60 and 80 mm, respectively, similar to the actual displacement of 90 mm resulting from the earthquake. Considering various input conditions such as uniaxial excitation and soil-structure interaction, as well as seismic components and the distance from the epicenter, both models yielded reasonable and applicable results. The Gyeongju earthquake exhibited extreme short-period characteristics; thus, short-period structures such as stone pagodas were seriously damaged. In addition, we found that sliding occurred in the upper parts because the vertical load was low, but rocking predominated in the lower parts because most structural members were slender. The third-floor main body and roof stones were particularly vulnerable because some damage occurred when the sliding and rocking limits were exceeded. Risk analysis revealed that the probability of collapse was minimal at 0.1 g, but exceeded 80% at above 0.3 g. The collapse risks at an earthquake peak ground acceleration of 0.154 g at the immediate occupancy, life safety, and collapse prevention levels were 90%, 52%, and 6% respectively. When the actual damage was compared with the risk analysis, the stone pagoda retained earthquake-resistant performance at the life safety level.

Stability of Analytical Fragility Curve of Bridge on Earthquake (지진의 변화에 따른 교량의 해석적 손상도 곡선의 안정성)

  • Lee, Jong-Heon;Lee, Soo-Choul
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.13 no.2 s.54
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    • pp.145-152
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    • 2009
  • In performing a risk analysis on structure for earthquake, it is imperative to identify the vulnerability of structures associated with various stages of damage. And the earthquake resisting capability is needed for structures like bridge. So the damage analysis of bridges with or without isolator for earthquake effects is necessary. In this paper, the risk analysis of seismic isolated LRB bridges considering earthquake effects such as PGA, PGV, SA, SV, and SI is performed using fragility curves to assure the earthquake resisting capability of the structures. And, the stability of fragility curve is investigated with respect to input earthquake.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Caisson-Type Breakwaters (케이슨 방파제의 확률론적 지진재해도 평가)

  • KIM SANG-HOON;KIM DOO-KIE
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.19 no.1 s.62
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    • pp.26-32
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    • 2005
  • Recent earthquakes, measuring over a magnitude of 5.0, on the eastern coast of Korea, have aroused interest in earthquake analyses and the seismic design of caisson-type breakwaters. Most earthquake analysis methods, such as equivalent static analysis, response spectrum analysis, nonlinear analysis, and capacity analysis, are deterministic and have been used for seismic design and performance evaluation of coastal structures. However, deterministic methods are difficult for reflecting on one of the most important characteristics of earthquakes, i.e. the uncertainty of earthquakes. This paper presents results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment(PSHA) of an actual caisson-type breakwater, considering uncertainties of earthquake occurrences and soil properties. First, the seismic vulnerability of a structure and the seismic hazard of the site are evaluated, using earthquake sets and a seismic hazard map; then, the seismic risk of the structure is assessed.

Probabilistic earthquake risk consideration of existing precast industrial buildings through loss curves

  • Ali Yesilyurt;Seyhan O. Akcan;Oguzhan Cetindemir;A. Can Zulfikar
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.565-576
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    • 2024
  • In this study, the earthquake risk assessment of single-story RC precast buildings in Turkey was carried out using loss curves. In this regard, Kocaeli, a seismically active city in the Marmara region, and this building class, which is preferred intensively, were considered. Quality and period parameters were defined based on structural and geometric properties. Depending on these parameters, nine main sub-classes were defined to represent the building stock in the region. First, considering the mean fragility curves and four different central damage ratio models, vulnerability curves for each sub-class were computed as a function of spectral acceleration. Then, probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were performed for stiff and soft soil conditions for different earthquake probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. In the last step, 90 loss curves were derived based on vulnerability and hazard results. Within the scope of the study, the comparative parametric evaluations for three different earthquake intensity levels showed that the structural damage ratio values for nine sub-classes changed significantly. In addition, the quality parameter was found to be more effective on a structure's damage state than the period parameter. It is evident that since loss curves allow direct loss ratio calculation for any hazard level without needing seismic hazard and damage analysis, they are considered essential tools in rapid earthquake risk estimation and mitigation initiatives.

A Study of System Analysis Method for Seismic PSA of Nuclear Power Plants (원자력발전소 지진 PSA의 계통분석방법 개선 연구)

  • Lim, Hak Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.159-166
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    • 2019
  • The seismic PSA is to probabilistically estimate the potential damage that a large earthquake will cause to a nuclear power plant. It integrates the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, seismic fragility analysis, and system analysis and is utilized to identify seismic vulnerability and improve seismic capacity of nuclear power plants. Recently, the seismic risk of domestic multi-unit nuclear power plant sites has been evaluated after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Gyeongju Earthquake in Korea. However, while the currently available methods for system analysis can derive basic required results of seismic PSA, they do not provide the detailed results required for the efficient improvement of seismic capacity. Therefore, for in-depth seismic risk evaluation, improved system analysis method for seismic PSA has become necessary. This study develops a system analysis method that is not only suitable for multi-unit seismic PSA but also provides risk information for the seismic capacity improvements. It will also contribute to the enhancement of the safety of nuclear power plants by identifying the seismic vulnerability using the detailed results of seismic PSA. In addition, this system analysis method can be applied to other external event PSAs, such as fire PSA and tsunami PSA, which require similar analysis.

Seismic Scenario Simulation and Its Applications on Risk Management in Taiwan

  • Yeh, Chin-Hsun
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2009.02b
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2009
  • This paper introduces various kinds of applications of the scenario-based seismic risk assessment in Taiwan. Seismic scenario simulation (SSS) is a GIS-based technique to assess distribution of ground shaking intensity, soil liquefaction probability, building damages and associated casualties, interruption of lifeline systems, economic losses, etc. given source parameters of an earthquake. The SSS may integrate with rapid earthquake information release system to obtain valuable information and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources efficiently. The SSS may also integrate with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss and probable maximum loss in one event, in a probabilistic sense and to help proposing feasible countermeasures.

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