• Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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• 2002.06a
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• pp.403-410
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• 2002

This paper presents the effect of internal corrosion, external corrosion, material properties, operation condition, earthquake, traffic load and design thickness in pipeline on the failure prediction using a failure probability model. A nonlinear corrosion is used to represent the loss of pipe wall thickness with time. The effects of environmental, operational, and design random variables such as a pipe diameter, earthquake, fluid pressure, a corrosion rate, a material yield stress and a pipe thickness on the failure probability are systematically investigated using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.87-98
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• 2015

Safety assessments of geological radioactive waste disposal systems, need to consider the abnormal scenario in which a system is impacted by external events in addition to a reference scenario. In this study, the characterization and prediction of an earthquake as an external event which will impact disposal systems were conducted probabilistically and statistically for the safety assessment. The domestic earthquake data were analyzed, and the prediction methodologies of the earthquake were suggested with a computational example. From the results, the earthquake occurrence rates in Korea ranged from 0.4 /yr to 36.2 /yr depending on the data set and the completeness magnitude. From a conservative point of view, the earthquake occurrence rate in the disposal system was suggested as 5.4×10^-4 /yr considering the area of the disposal system. At that time, the completeness magnitude of an earthquake was 2.3. This study will be followed by an appraisal of impacts associated with external events on the geological disposal system, and it will contribute to improvements in reliability of the safety assessment.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.12 no.11
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• pp.493-504
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• 2023

The Republic of Korea is located far from the boundary of the earthquake plate, and the intra-plate earthquake occurring in these areas is generally small in size and less frequent than the interplate earthquake. Nevertheless, as a result of investigating and analyzing earthquakes that occurred on the Korean Peninsula between the past two years and 1904 and earthquakes that occurred after observing recent earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula, it was found that of a magnitude of 9. In this paper, the Korean Peninsula Historical Earthquake Record (2 years to 1904) published by the National Meteorological Research Institute is used to analyze the relationship between earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula and statistical self-similarity. In addition, the problem solved through this paper was the first to investigate the relationship between earthquake data occurring on the Korean Peninsula and statistical self-similarity. As a result of measuring the degree of self-similarity of earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula using three quantitative estimation methods, the self-similarity parameter H value (0.5 < H < 1) was found to be above 0.8 on average, indicating a high degree of self-similarity. And through graph visualization, it can be easily figured out in which region earthquakes occur most often, and it is expected that it can be used in the development of a prediction system that can predict damage in the event of an earthquake in the future and minimize damage to property and people, as well as in earthquake data analysis and modeling research. Based on the findings of this study, the self-similar process is expected to help understand the patterns and statistical characteristics of seismic activities, group and classify similar seismic events, and be used for prediction of seismic activities, seismic risk assessments, and seismic engineering.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.387-399
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• 2022

To study the seismic damage of masonry structures and understand the characteristics of the multi-intensity region, according to the Dujiang weir urbanization of China Wenchuan earthquake, the deterioration of 3991 masonry structures was summarized and statistically analysed. First, the seismic damage of multistory masonry structures in this area was investigated. The primary seismic damage of components was as follows: Damage of walls, openings, joints of longitudinal and transverse walls, windows (lower) walls, and tie columns. Many masonry structures with seismic designs were basically intact. Second, according to the main factors of construction, seismic intensity code levels survey, and influence on the seismic capacity, a vulnerability matrix calculation model was proposed to establish a vulnerability prediction matrix, and a comparative analysis was made based on the empirical seismic damage investigation matrix. The vulnerability prediction matrix was established using the proposed vulnerability matrix calculation model. The fitting relationship between the vulnerability prediction matrix and the actual seismic damage investigation matrix was compared and analysed. The relationship curves of the mean damage index for macrointensity and ground motion parameters were drawn through calculation and analysis, respectively. The numerical analysis was performed based on actual ground motion observation records, and fitting models of PGA, PGV, and MSDI were proposed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.429-437
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• 2023

This paper studied the prediction of structural damage indices to buildings after earthquake occurrence using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Fuzzy Linear Regression (FLR) methods. Particularly, the structural damage degree, represented by the Maximum Inter Story Drift Ratio (MISDR), is an essential factor that ensures the safety of the building. Thus, the seismic response of a steel building was evaluated, utilizing 65 seismic accelerograms as input signals. Among the several response quantities, the focus is on the MISDR, which expresses the postseismic damage status. Using MLR and FLR methods and comparing the outputs with the corresponding evaluated by nonlinear dynamic analyses, it was concluded that the FLR method had the most accurate prediction results in contrast to the MLR method. A blind prediction applying a set of another 10 artificial accelerograms also examined the model's effectiveness. The results revealed that the use of the FLR method had the smallest average percentage error level for every set of applied accelerograms, and thus it is a suitable modeling tool in earthquake engineering.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.15-22
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• 2020

In this paper, seismic ground motion generation method based on the observbation data from the Korea Meteorological Administration is proposed to predict the acceleration time history at an arbitrary location after earthquake. The proposed method assumes that the magnitude of the seismic accelrations obtained from the near stations decreases linearly with the distance from the epicenter to the corresponding station and the accelerations measured at the adjacent stations are assumed to have similar maximum acceleration and time shape functions. These two assumptions allow for the prediction of seismic acceleartion motion without geotechnical information where no seismic accelerometer is installed. This study verified the applicability of the prediction method using seismic observation data from Gyeongju Earthquake (2016), Pohang Earthquake (2017) and Sangju Earthuqkae (2019). The comparison results show that the proposed method is effective for predicting the seismic acceleration response spectrum and time history at arbitary locations.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.293-303
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• 2020

Seismic fragility was assessed for non-seismic reinforced concrete shear walls in Korean high-rise apartment buildings in order to implement an earthquake damage prediction system. Seismic hazard was defined with an earthquake scenario, in which ground motion intensity was varied with respect to prescribed seismic center distances given an earthquake magnitude. Ground motion response spectra were computed using Korean ground motion attenuation equations to match accelerograms. Seismic fragility functions were developed using nonlinear static and dynamic analysis for comparison. Differences in seismic fragility between damage state criteria including inter-story drifts and the performance of individual structural members were investigated. The analyzed building had an exceptionally long period for the fundamental mode in the longitudinal direction and corresponding contribution of higher modes because of a prominently insufficient wall quantity in such direction. The results showed that nonlinear static analyses based on a single mode tend to underestimate structural damage. Moreover, detailed assessments of structural members are recommended for seismic fragility assessment of a relatively low performance level such as collapse prevention. On the other hand, inter-story drift is a more appropriate criterion for a relatively high performance level such as immediate occupancy.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.873-889
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• 2015

In civil engineering, probabilistic seismic risk assessment is used to predict the economic damage to a lifeline system of possible future earthquakes. The results are used to plan mitigation measures and to strengthen the structures where necessary. Instead, after an earthquake public authorities need mathematical models that compute: the damage caused by the earthquake to the individual vulnerable components and links, and the global behavior of the lifeline system. In this study, a framework that was developed and used for prediction purpose is modified to assess the consequences of an earthquake in quasi real-time after such earthquake happened. This is possible because nowadays entire seismic regions are instrumented with tight networks of strong motion stations, which provide and broadcast accurate intensity measure maps of the event to the public within minutes. The framework uses the broadcasted map and calculates the damage to the lifeline system and its component in quasi real-time. The results give the authorities the most likely status of the system. This helps emergency personnel to deal with the damage and to prioritize visual inspections and repairs. A highway transportation network is used as a test bed but any lifeline system can be analyzed.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.133-141
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• 2013

This paper presents the seismic evaluation and prediction of a damaged piloti-type Reinforced Concrete (RC) building before and after post-retrofitting under successive earthquakes. For considering realistic successive earthquakes, the past records measured at the same station were combined. In this study, the damaged RC building due to the first earthquake was retrofitted with a buckling-restrained brace (BRB) before the second earthquake occurred. Nonlinear Time History Analysis (NTHA) was performed under the scaled intensity of the successive ground motions. Based on the extensive structural response data obtained form from the NTHA, the fragility relationships between the ground shaking intensity and the probability of reaching a pre-determined limit state was were derived. In addition, The the fragility curves of the pre-damaged building without and with the BRBs were employed to evaluate the effect of the successive earthquakes and the post-retrofit effect. Through the seismic assessment subjected to the successive records, it was observed that the seismic performance of the pre-damaged building was significantly affected by the severity of the damage from the first earthquake damages and the hysteresis behavior of the retrofit element.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.1091-1114
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• 2015

The adequacy of a number of advanced earthquake Intensity Measures (IMs) to predict the structural damage of earthquake resistant 3D R/C buildings is investigated in the present paper. To achieve this purpose three symmetric in plan and three asymmetric 5-storey R/C buildings are analyzed by nonlinear time history analysis using 74 bidirectional earthquake records. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along the structural axes of the buildings and the structural damage is expressed in terms of the maximum and average interstorey drift as well as the overall structural damage index. For each individual pair of accelerograms the values of the aforementioned seismic damage measures are determined. Then, they are correlated with several strong motion scalar IMs that take into account both earthquake and structural characteristics. The research identified certain IMs which exhibit strong correlation with the seismic damage measures of the studied buildings. However, the degree of correlation between IMs and the seismic damage depends on the damage measure adopted. Furthermore, it is confirmed that the widely used spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure is a relatively good IM for medium rise R/C buildings that possess small structural eccentricity.