• Title/Summary/Keyword: earthquake prediction

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A Development of a Seismic Vulnerability Model and Spatial Analysis for Buildings (건물에 대한 지진취약도 모델링 및 공간 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Bin;Kim, Seong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest a method of predicting seismic vulnerability and safety conditions of each building in a targeted area. The scope of this study includes 'developing a simulation model for precaution activities,' 'testing the validity of the developed model', From the facility point of view, target of this study is a local building system. According to the literature review, the number of earthquake prediction modeling and cases with GIS applied is extremely few and the results are not proficient. This study is conducted as a way to improve the previous researches. Statistic analyses are conducted using 348 domestic and international data. Finally, as a result of the series of statistical analyses, an adequate model is developed using optimization scale method. The ratio of correct expectation is estimated as 87%. In order to apply the developed model to predict the vulnerability of the several chosen local building systems, spatial analysis technique is applied. Gangnam-gu and Jongro-gu are selected as the target areas to represent the characteristics of the old and the new downtown in Seoul. As a result of the analysis, it is discovered that buildings in Gangnam-gu are relatively more dangerous comparing to those of Jongro-gu and Eunpyeong-gu.

Study on the Sea Level Pressure Prediction of Typhoon Period in South Coast of the Korean Peninsula Using the Neural Networks (신경망 모형을 이용한 태풍시기의 남해안 기압예측 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Kil;Kim, Byung-Soo;Jung, Woo-Sik;Seo, Jang-Won;Shon, Yong-Hee;Lee, Dae-Geun;Kim, Eun-Byul
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.19-31
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the statistical model to predict sea level pressure of typhoon period in south coast of the Korean Peninsula. Seven typhoons, which struck south coast of the Korean Peninsula, are selected for this study, and the data for analysis include the central pressure and location of typhoon, and sea level pressure and location of 19 observing site. Models employed in this study are the first order regression, the second order regression and the neural network. The dependent variable of each model is a 3-hr interval sea level pressure at each station. The cause variables are the central pressure of typhoon, distance between typhoon center and observing site, and sea level pressure of 3 hrs before, whereas the indicative variable reveals whether it is before or after typhoon passing. The data are classified into two groups - one is the full data obtained during typhoon period and the other is the data that sea level pressure is less than 1000 hPa. The stepwise selection method is used in the regression model while the node number is selected in the neural network by the Schwarz's Bayesian Criterion. The performance of each model is compared in terms of the root-mean square error. It turns out that the neural network shows better performance than other models, and the case using the full data produces similar or better results than the case using the other data.

Determination Process of Drift Capacity for Seismic Performance Evaluation of Steel Tall Buildings (초고층 철골 건축물의 내진성능평가를 위한 Drift Capacity 산정 프로세스)

  • Min, Ji Youn;Oh, Myoung Ho;Kim, Myeong Han;Kim, Sang Dae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.481-490
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    • 2006
  • The actual performance of a building during an earthquake depends on many factors. The prediction of the seismic performance of a new or existing structure is complex, due not only to the large number of factors that need to be considered and the complexity of the seismic response, but also due to the large inherent uncertainties and randomness associated with making these predictions. A central issue of this research is the proper treatment and incorporation of these uncertainties and randomness in the evaluation of structural capacity and response has been adopted in the seismic performance evaluation of steel tall buildings to account for the uncertainties and randomness in seismic demand and capacities in a consistent manner. The basic framework for reliability-based seismic performance evaluation and the key factors for statistical studies were summarized. A total of 36 target structures that represent typical tall steel buildings based on national building code (KBC-2005) were designed for the statistical studies of demand factor s and capacity factors. The incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) approach was examined through the simple steel moment frame building in determination of global drift capacity.

Displacements, damage measures and response spectra obtained from a synthetic accelerogram processed by causal and acausal Butterworth filters

  • Gundes Bakir, Pelin;Richard, J. Vaccaro
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.409-430
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    • 2006
  • The aim of this study is to investigate the reliability of strong motion records processed by causal and acausal Butterworth filters in comparison to the results obtained from a synthetic accelerogram. For this purpose, the fault parallel component of the Bolu record of the Duzce earthquake is modeled with a sum of exponentially damped sinusoidal components. Noise-free velocities and displacements are then obtained by analytically integrating the synthetic acceleration model. The analytical velocity and displacement signals are used as a standard with which to judge the validity of the signals obtained by filtering with causal and acausal filters and numerically integrating the acceleration model. The results show that the acausal filters are clearly preferable to the causal filters due to the fact that the response spectra obtained from the acausal filters match the spectra obtained from the simulated accelerogram better than that obtained by causal filters. The response spectra are independent from the order of the filters and from the method of integration (whether analytical integration after a spline fit to the synthetic accelerogram or the trapezoidal rule). The response spectra are sensitive to the chosen corner frequency of both the causal and the acausal filters and also to the inclusion of the pads. Accurate prediction of the static residual displacement (SRD) is very important for structures traversing faults in the near-fault regions. The greatest adverse effect of the high pass filters is their removal of the SRD. However, the noise-free displacements obtained by double integrating the synthetic accelerogram analytically preserve the SRD. It is thus apparent that conventional high pass filters should not be used for processing near-fault strong-motion records although they can be reliably used for far-fault records if applied acausally. The ground motion parameters such as ARIAS intensity, HUSID plots, Housner spectral intensity and the duration of strong-motion are found to be insensitive to the causality of filters.

Experiments on reinforced concrete beam-column joints under cyclic loads and evaluating their response by nonlinear static pushover analysis

  • Sharma, Akanshu;Reddy, G.R.;Eligehausen, Rolf;Vaze, K.K.;Ghosh, A.K.;Kushwaha, H.S.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.99-117
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    • 2010
  • Beam-column joints are the key structural elements, which dictate the behavior of structures subjected to earthquake loading. Though large experimental work has been conducted in the past, still various issues regarding the post-yield behavior, ductility and failure modes of the joints make it a highly important research topic. This paper presents experimental results obtained for eight beam-column joints of different sizes and configuration under cyclic loads along with the analytical evaluation of their response using a simple and effective analytical procedure based on nonlinear static pushover analysis. It is shown that even the simplified analysis can predict, to a good extent, the behavior of the joints by giving the important information on both strength and ductility of the joints and can even be used for prediction of failure modes. The results for four interior and four exterior joints are presented. One confined and one unconfined joint for each configuration were tested and analyzed. The experimental and analytical results are presented in the form of load-deflection. Analytical plots are compared with envelope of experimentally obtained hysteretic loops for the joints. The behavior of various joints under cyclic loads is carefully examined and presented. It is also shown that the procedure described can be effectively utilized to analytically gather the information on behavior of joints.

Modelling beam-to-column joints in seismic analysis of RC frames

  • Lima, Carmine;Martinelli, Enzo;Macorini, Lorenzo;Izzuddin, Bassam A.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2017
  • Several theoretical and analytical formulations for the prediction of shear strength in reinforced concrete (RC) beam-to-column joints have been recently developed. Some of these predictive models are included in the most recent seismic codes and currently used in practical design. On the other hand, the influence of the stiffness and strength degradations in RC joints on the seismic performance of RC framed buildings has been only marginally studied, and it is generally neglected in practice-oriented seismic analysis. To investigate such influence, this paper proposes a numerical description for representing the cyclic response of RC exterior joints. This is then used in nonlinear numerical simulations of RC frames subjected to earthquake loading. According to the proposed strategy, RC joints are modelled using nonlinear rotational spring elements with strength and stiffness degradations and limited ductility under cyclic loading. The proposed joint model has been firstly calibrated against the results from experimental tests on 12 RC exterior joints. Subsequently, nonlinear static and dynamic analyses have been carried out on two-, three- and four-storey RC frames, which represent realistic existing structures designed according to old standards. The numerical results confirm that the global seismic response of the analysed RC frames is strongly affected by the hysteretic damage in the beam-to-column joints, which determines the failure mode of the frames. This highlights that neglecting the effects of joints damage may potentially lead to non-conservative seismic assessment of existing RC framed structures.

A Survey Study for Establishment of National Global Earth Observation System of Systems (국가 전지구관측시스템 구축을 위한 기초조사연구)

  • Ahn, bu-young;Joh, min-su
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.80-83
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    • 2007
  • Entering 21st century, various natural disasters have been caused by the scorching heat wave, earthquake, tsunami, typhoon and so on. The casuality and damages have been drastically increased in terms of the frequency and magnitude. Therefore, 50 nations around the world agreed to build up the GEO(Global Earth Observation) in charge of the earth observation for the understanding of the earth system changes, monitoring and prediction and it is on operation. To keep the pace with GEOSS for the cooperation of Science & Technology and to successfully achieve the GEOSS project, KGEO office was established and has been on its duty. Moreover, for more prosperous building of the GEOSS, in cooperation with KGEO and KISTI(Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information), we've conducted the survey of the domestic situation about 9 societal benefit areas of the GEOSS. This survey consists of 5 sections as follows: the standardization, the information system management, the raw data and metadata, the infrastructure, and the others. This survey results will be used as the basic material for establishing the National Global Earth Observation System.

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The Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall over the Korean Peninsular - Case Studies of Heavy Rainfall Events during the On- and Off- Changma Season- (장마기와 장마 후의 한반도 집중호우 특성 사례분석)

  • Chung, Hyo-Sang;Chung, Yun-Ang;Kim, Chang-Mo;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.21 no.12
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    • pp.1511-1521
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    • 2012
  • An attempt is made to analyse characteristic features of heavy rainfalls which occur at the metropolitan area of the Korean peninsular the on- and off- Changma season. For this, two representative heavy rainfall episodes are selected; one is the on-Changma season wherein a torrential rain episode happened at Goyang city on 12 July 2006, and the other is the off-Changma season, a heavy rainfall event in Seoul on 21 September 2006. Both recorded considerable amounts of precipitation, over 250mm in a half-day, which greatly exceeded the amount expected by numerical prediction models at those times, and caused great damage to property and life in the affected area. Similarities in the characteristics of both episodes were shown by; the location of upper-level jet streak and divergence fields of the upper wind over heavy rainfall areas, significantly high equivalent potential temperatures in the low atmospheric layer due to the entrainment of hot and humid air by the low-level jet, and the existence of very dry air and cold air pool in the middle layer of the atmosphere at the peak time of the rainfall events. Among them, differences in dynamic features of the low-level jet and the position of rainfall area along the low-level jet are remarkable.

Reproduction of Cyclic Triaxial Behavior of Unsaturated Soil using Element Simulation (요소 시뮬레이션에 의한 불포화토의 반복삼축거동 재현)

  • Lee, Chungwon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2015
  • Suction affects the unsaturated soil as the negative pore pressure, and leads to increases of the yield stress and the plastic shear stiffness of the soil skeleton due to the growth in interparticle stress. Hence, in this study, in order to account for these effects of suction under the dynamic loading condition such as the earthquake, the element simulation of the cyclic triaxial test using induced stress-strain relation based on cyclic elasto-plastic constitutive model extended for unsaturated soil considering the $1^{st}$ and the $2^{nd}$ yield functions was conducted. Through the stress path, stress-strain relation and relation between volumetric strain and axial strain, it was seen in all the cases that the simulation results demonstrated a good agreement with the experimental results. It is expected that the results of this study possibly contribute to the accuracy improvement on the prediction of unsaturated soil behavior under the dynamic loading condition.

Improvement in the Simulation of Wind Fields Over the Complex Coastal Area, Korea (한반도 복잡 해안지역의 바람장 모의 개선)

  • Kim, Yoo-Keun;Bae, Joo-Hyun;Jeong, Ju-Hee;Kweon, Ji-Hye;Seo, Jang-Won;Kim, Yong-Sang
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.417-430
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    • 2006
  • We focused on improvement in simulation of wind fields for the complex coastal area. Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) was used as a data assimilation method to improve initial conditions. Case studies of different LAPS inputs were performed to compare improvement of wind fields. Five cases have been employed : I) non data assimilation, II) all available data, III) AWS, buoy, QuikSCAT, IV) AWS, buoy, wind profiler, V) AWS, buoy, AMEDAS. Data assimilation can supplement insufficiency of the mesoscale model which does not represent detailed terrain effect and small scale atmospheric flow fields. Result assimilated all available data showed a good agreement to the observations rather than other cases and estimated veil the local meteorological characteristics including sea breeze and up-slope winds. Result using wind profiler data was the next best thing. This implies that data assimilation with many high-resolution sounding data could contribute to the improvements of good initial condition in the complex coastal area. As a result, these indicated that effective data assimilation process and application of the selective LAPS inputs played an important role in simulating wind fields accurately in a complex area.