• Title/Summary/Keyword: earthquake prediction

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Vulnerability assessment of strategic buildings based on ambient vibrations measurements

  • Mori, Federico;Spina, Daniele
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.115-132
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents a new method for seismic vulnerability assessment of buildings with reference to their operational limit state. The importance of this kind of evaluation arises from the civil protection necessity that some buildings, considered strategic for seismic emergency management, should retain their functionality also after a destructive earthquake. The method is based on the identification of experimental modal parameters from ambient vibrations measurements. The knowledge of the experimental modes allows to perform a linear spectral analysis computing the maximum structural drifts of the building caused by an assigned earthquake. Operational condition is then evaluated by comparing the maximum building drifts with the reference value assigned by the Italian Technical Code for the operational limit state. The uncertainty about the actual building seismic frequencies, typically significantly lower than the ambient ones, is explicitly taken into account through a probabilistic approach that allows to define for the building the Operational Index together with the Operational Probability Curve. The method is validated with experimental seismic data from a permanently monitored public building: by comparing the probabilistic prediction and the building experimental drifts, resulting from three weak earthquakes, the reliability of the method is confirmed. Finally an application of the method to a strategic building in Italy is presented: all the procedure, from ambient vibrations measurement, to seismic input definition, up to the computation of the Operational Probability Curve is illustrated.

Enhancement of Compressive and Shear Strength for Concrete Masonry Prisms with Steel Fiber-Reinforced Mortar Overlay (강섬유보강 모르타르 바름에 의한 콘크리트 조적 프리즘의 압축 및 사인장 강도 증진 효과)

  • Yu, Ji-Hoon;Myeong, Seong-Jin;Park, Ji-Hun
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 2021
  • Concrete masonry prisms are strengthened with steel fiber-reinforced mortar (SFRM) overlay and tested for compressive and diagonal tension strength. Masonry prisms are produced in poor condition considering standard workmanship for masonry buildings in Korea. Amorphous steel fibers are adopted for SFRM, and appropriate mixing ratios of SFRM are derived considering constructability and strength. Masonry prisms are strengthened with different fiber volume ratios, while numerous strengthened faces and additional reinforcing meshes are produced for compression and diagonal tension tests. Compression and diagonal tension strength are increased by up to 122% and 856%, respectively, and the enhancement effect for diagonal tension strength was superior compared to compression strength. Finally, the test results and strength prediction equations based on existing literature and regression analysis are compared.

Seismic vulnerability of reinforced concrete structures using machine learning

  • Ioannis Karampinis;Lazaros Iliadis
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.83-95
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    • 2024
  • The prediction of seismic behavior of the existing building stock is one of the most impactful and complex problems faced by countries with frequent and intense seismic activities. Human lives can be threatened or lost, the economic life is disrupted and large amounts of monetary reparations can be potentially required. However, authorities at a regional or national level have limited resources at their disposal in order to allocate to preventative measures. Thus, in order to do so, it is essential for them to be able to rank a given population of structures according to their expected degree of damage in an earthquake. In this paper, the authors present a ranking approach, based on Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for pairwise comparisons, coupled with ad hoc ranking rules. The case study employed data from 404 reinforced concrete structures with various degrees of damage from the Athens 1999 earthquake. The two main components of our experiments pertain to the performance of the ML models and the success of the overall ranking process. The former was evaluated using the well-known respective metrics of Precision, Recall, F1-score, Accuracy and Area Under Curve (AUC). The performance of the overall ranking was evaluated using Kendall's tau distance and by viewing the problem as a classification into bins. The obtained results were promising, and were shown to outperform currently employed engineering practices. This demonstrated the capabilities and potential of these models in identifying the most vulnerable structures and, thus, mitigating the effects of earthquakes on society.

A Case Study on Seismic Response of Haunch Repaired Steel MRFs (헌치로 보강된 철골모멘트골조의 지진응답 사례연구)

  • 이철호
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 1997
  • Recent test results of steel moment connections repaired with a haunch on the bottom side of the beam have been shown to be a very promising solution to enhancing the seismic performance of steel moment-resisting frames. Yet, litle is known about the effects of using such a repair scheme on the system seismic performance of structures. To investigate the effects of haunch repair on the system seismic performance, a case study was conducted for a 13-story steel frame building damaged during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. When haunches are incorporated in a steel moment frame, the response prediction is complicated by the presence of "dual" panel zones in the column. A new analytical modeling technique for the dual panel zone recently developed by the author was incorporated in the analysis. Incorporating the behavior of dual panel zone was among the most significant consideration in the analyses. Both the inelastic static and dynamic analyses did not indicate detrimental side effects resulting from the repair.he repair.

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A Fundamental Study on the Database of Response History for Historical Earthquake Records on the Korean Peninsula (한반도 과거 지진기록에 대한 응답이력 데이터베이스 구축 기초 연구)

  • Choi, Inhyeok;Ahn, Jae-Kwang;Kwak, Dongyoup
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.821-831
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    • 2019
  • The 9.12 earthquake (2016.9.12., ML=5.8) and Pohang (2017.11.15., ML=5.4) caused social and economic damage, resulting in a greater public interest in earthquakes than in the past. In the U.S., Japan and Chile, which have high frequency of earthquakes, infrastructure facilities are already managed based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) to prepare for and respond to seismic disasters. In South Korea, the aforementioned PSHA and GMPE models have been developed independently through individual researchers. However, the limited disclosure of basic data, calculation methods, and final results created during the model development poses a problem of deploying new data without updating the earthquake that occurs every year. Therefore, this paper describes how to create flatfile, which is the basic data of GMPE, and how to process for seismic waves, and how to create intensity measures.

Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential for Marine Silty Sand Deposits during Earthquake (서해안 사질토지반의 지진시 액상화 예측)

  • 이희명;정두영
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.23-33
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    • 1994
  • Liquefaction characteristics of the reclaimed marine sand deposits is studied by means of the dynamic response analysis and the cyclic triaxial compression test. 1) From the result of the dynamic response analysis. it was found that the amplification of ground surface maximum acceleration varied with input earthquake motions and soil data, and earthquake coefficients were proposed to be applicable in evaluating liquefaction potential by simplified prediction methods. 2) For upper and soft sand deposits with small N-value, liquefaction strengths estimated by Seed and Idriss's simplified method were lower than those by the cyclic triaxial test while those by Iwasaki & Tatsuoka's or Vs-method were not lower. 3) Simplified methods were inclined to overestimate liquefaction potential in comparison with the dynamic response analysis and the cyclic triaxial compression test Allowable depths of liquefaction(safety factor 1) were estimated to be 7-14m for 0.1 -0.2g of input maximum acceleration.

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Evaluation of Nonlinear Seismic Performance Using Equivalent Responses of Multistory Building Structures (대표응답을 이용한 건축구조물의 비선형 지진응답 분석 및 내진성능평가)

  • 이동근;최원호
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.5 no.6
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2001
  • Determination of ductility demand and prediction of nonlinear seismic responses of a structure under the earthquake ground motions have become a very important subject for evaluation of seismic performance in the performance based seismic design. In this study, the system ductility demand and nonlinear seismic responses of the steel moment framed structures by the nonlinear time history analysis are estimated and compared with those obtained from the capacity spectrum method suggested in ATC-40 and proposed method that is an improvement on the capacity spectrum method using the equivalent responses derived directly from a multi degree of freedom system. the adequacy and validity of the proposed method is verified by comparing the results evaluated by the method proposed in this study and the results obtained from method suggested in ATC-40 to the nonlinear seismic responses of the example structures from the nonlinear time history analysis.

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Estimation of Seismic Fragility for Busan and Incheon Harbor Quay Walls (부산 및 인천항만 안벽구조물의 지진취약도 예측)

  • Kim, Young Jin;Kim, Dong Hyawn;Lee, Gee Nam;Park, Woo Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.412-421
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    • 2013
  • Nowadays, small and medium-sized earthquakes occur frequently in the west coast of Korea. The earthquake induced damages on the harbor structure such as quay wall possibly make a severe impact on national economy. Therefore, not only a seismic design for the structures but warning system for seismic damage right after the occurrence of earthquake should be developed. In this study, seismic fragility analysis was performed to be given to earthquake damage prediction system for quay wall structures in Busan and Incheon harbor. Four types of structures such as pier-type, caisson type, counterfort type, block-type were analyzed and fragility curves of functional performance level and collapse prevention level based on displacement criteria were found. Regression analyses by using the results of the two ports were done for possible use in other port structures.

Comparison of log-logistic and generalized extreme value distributions for predicted return level of earthquake (지진 재현수준 예측에 대한 로그-로지스틱 분포와 일반화 극단값 분포의 비교)

  • Ko, Nak Gyeong;Ha, Il Do;Jang, Dae Heung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2020
  • Extreme value distributions have often been used for the analysis (e.g., prediction of return level) of data which are observed from natural disaster. By the extreme value theory, the block maxima asymptotically follow the generalized extreme value distribution as sample size increases; however, this may not hold in a small sample case. For solving this problem, this paper proposes the use of a log-logistic (LLG) distribution whose validity is evaluated through goodness-of-fit test and model selection. The proposed method is illustrated with data from annual maximum earthquake magnitudes of China. Here, we present the predicted return level and confidence interval according to each return period using LLG distribution.

Collapse Probability of a Low-rise Piloti-type Building Considering Domestic Seismic Hazard (국내 지진재해도를 고려한 저층 필로티 건물의 붕괴 확률)

  • Kim, Dae-Hwan;Kim, Taewan;Chu, Yurim
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.7_spc
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    • pp.485-494
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    • 2016
  • The risk-based assessment, also called time-based assessment of structure is usually performed to provide seismic risk evaluation of a target structure for its entire life-cycle, e.g. 50 years. The prediction of collapse probability is the estimator in the risk-based assessment. While the risk-based assessment is the key in the performance-based earthquake engineering, its application is very limited because this evaluation method is very expensive in terms of simulation and computational efforts. So the evaluation database for many archetype structures usually serve as representative of the specific system. However, there is no such an assessment performed for building stocks in Korea. Consequently, the performance objective of current building code, KBC is not clear at least in a quantitative way. This shortcoming gives an unresolved issue to insurance industry, socio-economic impact, seismic safety policy in national and local governments. In this study, we evaluate the comprehensive seismic performance of an low-rise residential buildings with discontinuous structural walls, so called piloti-type structure which is commonly found in low-rise domestic building stocks. The collapse probability is obtained using the risk integral of a conditioned collapse capacity function and regression of current hazard curve. Based on this approach it is expected to provide a robust tool to seismic safety policy as well as seismic risk analysis such as Probable Maximum Loss (PML) commonly used in the insurance industry.