• Title/Summary/Keyword: earthquake prediction

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Prediction of force reduction factor (R) of prefabricated industrial buildings using neural networks

  • Arslan, M. Hakan;Ceylan, Murat;Kaltakci, Yaspr M.;Ozbay, Yuksel;Gulay, Fatma Gulten
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.117-134
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    • 2007
  • The force (load) reduction factor, R, which is one of the most important parameters in earthquake load calculation, is independent of the dimensions of the structure but is defined on the basis of the load bearing system of the structure as defined in earthquake codes. Significant damages and failures were experienced on prefabricated reinforced concrete structures during the last three major earthquakes in Turkey (Adana 1998, Kocaeli 1999, Duzce 1999) and the experts are still discussing the main reasons of those failures. Most of them agreed that they resulted mainly from the earthquake force reduction factor, R that is incorrectly selected during design processes, in addition to all other detailing errors. Thus this wide spread damages caused by the earthquake to prefabricated structures aroused suspicion about the correctness of the R coefficient recommended in the current Turkish Earthquake Codes (TEC - 98). In this study, an attempt was made for an approximate determination of R coefficient for widely utilized prefabricated structure types (single-floor single-span) with variable dimensions. According to the selecting variable dimensions, 140 sample frames were computed using pushover analysis. The force reduction factor R was calculated by load-displacement curves obtained pushover analysis for each frame. Then, formulated artificial neural network method was trained by using 107 of the 140 sample frames. For the training various algorithms were used. The method was applied and used for the prediction of the R rest 33 frames with about 92% accuracy. The paper also aims at proposing the authorities to change the R coefficient values predicted in TEC - 98 for prefabricated concrete structures.

Parameter Identification and Nonlinear Seismic Analysis of Soil-Structure Interaction System (지반-구조물 상호작용계의 계수추정 및 비선형 지진응답해석)

  • 윤정방
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1997.04a
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    • pp.265-272
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    • 1997
  • This paper presents the result of an international cooperative research on the post-correlation analysis of forced vibration tests and the prediction of earthquake responses of a large-scale seismic test structure. Through the post-correlation analysis, the properties of the soil layers are revised so that the best correlation in the responses may be obtained compared with the measured force vibration test data. Utilizing the revised soil properties as the initial linear values, the seismic responses are predicted for an earthquake using the equivalent linearlization technique based on the specified strain dependent characteristics of the shear moduli and damping ratios. It has been found that the predicted responses by the equivalent nonlinear procedure are in excellent agreement with the observed responses, which those using the initial properties are fairly off from the measured results.

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Machine learning tool to assess the earthquake structural safety of systems designed for wind: In application of noise barriers

  • Ali, Tabish;Lee, Jehyeong;Kim, Robin Eunju
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.315-328
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    • 2022
  • Structures designed for wind have an opposite design approach to those designed for earthquakes. These structures are usually reliable if they are constructed in an area where there is almost no or less severe earthquake. However, as seismic activity is unpredictable and it can occur anytime and anywhere, the seismic safety of structures designed for wind must be assessed. Moreover, the design approaches of wind and earthquake systems are opposite where wind design considers higher stiffness but earthquake designs demand a more flexible structure. For this reason, a novel Machine learning framework is proposed that is used to assess and classify the seismic safety of the structures designed for wind load. Moreover, suitable criteria is defined for the design of wind resistance structures considering seismic behavior. Furthermore, the structural behavior as a result of dynamic interaction between superstructure and substructure during seismic events is also studied. The proposed framework achieved an accuracy of more than 90% for classification and prediction as well, when applied to new structures and unknown ground motions.

Strong ground motion characteristics of the 2011 Van Earthquake of Turkey: Implications of seismological aspects on engineering parameters

  • Beyen, Kemal;Tanircan, Gulum
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.1363-1386
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    • 2015
  • The October 23 2011 Van Earthquake is studied from an earthquake engineering point of view. Strong ground motion processing was performed to investigate features of the earthquake source, forward directivity effects during the rupture process as well as local site effects. Strong motion characteristics were investigated in terms of peak ground motion and spectral acceleration values. Directiviy effects were discussed in detail via elastic response spectra and wide band spectograms to see the high frequency energy distributions. Source parameters and slip distribution results of the earthquake which had been proposed by different researchers were summarized. Influence of the source parameters on structural response were shown by comparing elastic response spectra of Muradiye synthetic records which were performed by broadband strong motion simulations of the earthquake. It has been emphasized that characteristics of the earthquake rupture dynamics and their effects on structural design might be investigated from a multidisciplinary point of view. Seismotectonic calculations (e.g., slip pattern, rupture velocity) may be extended relating different engineering parameters (e.g., interstorey drifts, spectral accelerations) across different disciplines while using code based seismic design approaches. Current state of the art building codes still far from fully reflecting earthquake source related parameters into design rules. Some of those deficiencies and recent efforts to overcome these problems were also mentioned. Next generation ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) may be incorporated with certain site categories for site effects. Likewise in the 2011 Van Earthquake, Reverse/Oblique earthquakes indicate that GMPEs need to be feasible to a wider range of magnitudes and distances in engineering practice. Due to the reverse faulting with large slip and dip angles, vertical displacements along with directivity and fault normal effects might significantly affect the engineering structures. Main reason of excessive damage in the town of Erciş can be attributed to these factors. Such effects should be considered in advance through the establishment of vertical design spectra and effects might be incorporated in the available GMPEs.

Settlement prediction for footings based on stress history from VS measurements

  • Cho, Hyung Ik;Kim, Han Saem;Sun, Chang-Guk;Kim, Dong Soo
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.371-384
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    • 2020
  • A settlement prediction method based on shear wave velocity measurements and soil nonlinearity was recently developed and verified by means of centrifuge tests. However, the method was only applicable to heavily overconsolidated soil deposits under enlarged yield surfaces. In this study, the settlement evaluation method was refined to consider the stress history of the sublayer, based on an overconsolidation ratio evaluation technique, and thereby incorporate irrecoverable plastic deformation in the settlement calculation. A relationship between the small-strain shear modulus and overconsolidation ratio, which can be determined from laboratory tests, was adopted to describe the stress history of the subsurface. Based on the overconsolidation ratio determined, the value of an empirical coefficient that reflects the effect of plastic deformation over the elastic region is determined by comparing the overconsolidation ratio with the stress increment transmitted by the surface design load. The refined method that incorporate this empirical coefficient was successfully validated by means of centrifuge tests, even under normally consolidated loading conditions.

Application of Vibration Prediction Method Using Response Spectrum with Amplification Factor (증폭계수를 이용한 진동 예측기법의 적용)

  • 심재수;황의승;김덕중;윤종오
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.1 no.4
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 1997
  • Damages and public complaints are increased due to construction noise and vibration from several sources. It is urgently needed to develop the easy and practical method to estimate the vibration effect. In this study, to predict the vibration effect, the method using the response spectrum with amplification factor concepts prroposed by Newmark and Hall is used. Also the applicability of the method is examined. Vibration measurement on subway structure, foundation and building structures are performed and the results show that the provided method is practical and can be used to predict the vibration effect.

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Prediction of Torsional Behavior for High-Rise Building Structures under Lateral Load (횡하중에 의한 고층건물의 비틀림 거동분석)

  • 서현주
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1999.04a
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    • pp.151-160
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    • 1999
  • It is recommended to have symmetric plan and elevation in structural design of hight-rise building structures to reduce torsional response of the structures. However it is not always allowed to do so due to architectural purposes. in many cases high-rise buildings are asymmetric. The purpose of this study is to predict the torsional behavior of high-rise building structures with asymmetric plan. Equivalent lateral stiffness and deformation shape factor are used for prediction of torsional response of high-rise buildings. Overall torsion of a structure is estimated by equivalent lateral stiffness and torsion of each floor is estimated by deformation factor in each 2-D lateral force resisting elements.

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Prediction of Compressive Strength of Concrete using Probabilistic Neural Networks (확률 신경망이론을 사용한 콘크리트 압축강도 추정)

  • 김두기;이종재;장성규;임병용
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2003.09a
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    • pp.311-316
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    • 2003
  • The compressive strength of concrete is a criterion to produce concrete. However, the tests on the compressive strength are complicated and time-consuming. More importantly, it is too late to make improvement even if the test result does not satisfy the required strength, since the test is usually performed at the 28th day after the placement of Concrete at the Construction site. Therefore, strength prediction before the placement of concrete is highly desirable. This study presents the probabilistic technique for predicting the compressive strength of concrete on the basis of concrete mix proportions. The estimation of the strength is based on the probabilistic neural network, and show that the present methods are very efficient and reasonable in predicting the compressive strength of concrete probabilistically.

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Application into Assessment of Liquefaction Hazard and Geotechnical Vulnerability During Earthquake with High-Precision Spatial-Ground Model for a City Development Area (도시개발 영역 고정밀 공간지반모델의 지진 시 액상화 재해 및 지반 취약성 평가 활용)

  • Kim, Han-Saem;Sun, Chang-Guk;Ha, Ik-Soo
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2023
  • This study proposes a methodology for assessing seismic liquefaction hazard by implementing high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) ground models with high-density/high-precision site investigation data acquired in an area of interest, which would be linked to geotechnical numerical analysis tools. It is possible to estimate the vulnerability of earthquake-induced geotechnical phenomena (ground motion amplification, liquefaction, landslide, etc.) and their triggering complex disasters across an area for urban development with several stages of high-density datasets. In this study, the spatial-ground models for city development were built with a 3D high-precision grid of 5 m × 5 m × 1 m by applying geostatistic methods. Finally, after comparing each prediction error, the geotechnical model from the Gaussian sequential simulation is selected to assess earthquake-induced geotechnical hazards. In particular, with seven independent input earthquake motions, liquefaction analysis with finite element analyses and hazard mappings with LPI and LSN are performed reliably based on the spatial geotechnical models in the study area. Furthermore, various phenomena and parameters, including settlement in the city planning area, are assessed in terms of geotechnical vulnerability also based on the high-resolution spatial-ground modeling. This case study on the high-precision 3D ground model-based zonations in the area of interest verifies the usefulness in assessing spatially earthquake-induced hazards and geotechnical vulnerability and their decision-making support.

Effect of Boundary Conditions on Failure Probability of Corrosion Pipeline (부식 배관의 경계조건이 파손확률에 미치는 영향)

  • 이억섭;편장식
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.873-876
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents the effect of internal corrosion, external corrosion, material properties, operation condition, earthquake, traffic load and design thickness in pipeline on the failure prediction using a failure probability model. A nonlinear corrosion is used to represent the loss of pipe wall thickness with time. The effects of environmental, operational, and design random variables such as a pipe diameter, earthquake, fluid pressure, a corrosion rate, a material yield stress and a pipe thickness on the failure probability are systematically investigated using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.

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