• Title/Summary/Keyword: dynamic properties

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Forecasting Substitution and Competition among Previous and New products using Choice-based Diffusion Model with Switching Cost: Focusing on Substitution and Competition among Previous and New Fixed Charged Broadcasting Services (전환 비용이 반영된 선택 기반 확산 모형을 통한 신.구 상품간 대체 및 경쟁 예측: 신.구 유료 방송서비스간 대체 및 경쟁 사례를 중심으로)

  • Koh, Dae-Young;Hwang, Jun-Seok;Oh, Hyun-Seok;Lee, Jong-Su
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.223-252
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    • 2008
  • In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of $4{\ast}14{\ast}1000=56000$observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.

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Essay on Form and Function Design (디자인의 형태와 기능에 관한 연구)

  • 이재국
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.63-97
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    • 1989
  • There is nothing more important than the form and function in design, because every design product can be done on the basis of them. Form and Function are already existed before the word of design has been appeared and all the natural and man-made things' basic organization is based on their organic relations. The organic relations is the source of vitality which identifies the subsistance of all the objects and the evolution of living creatures has been changed their appearances by the natural law and order. Design is no exception. Design is a man-made organic thing which is developed its own way according to the purposed aim and given situations. If so, what is the ultimate goal of design. It is without saying that the goal is to make every effort to contribute to the -human beings most desirable life by the designer who is devoting himself to their convenience and well-being. Therefore, the designer can be called the man of rich life practitioner. This word implies a lot of meanings since the essence of design is improving the guality of life by the man-made things which are created by the designer. Also, the things are existed through the relations between form and function, and the things can keep their value when they are answered to the right purpose. In design, thus, it is to be a main concern how to create valuable things and to use them in the right way, and the subject of study is focused on the designer's outlook of value and uk relations between form and function. Christopher Alexander mentioned the importance of form as follows. The ultimate object of design is form. Every design problem begins with an effort to achieve fittness between the form and its context. The form is the solution to the problem: the context defmes the problem. In other words, when we speak of design, the real object of discussion is not form alone, but the ensemble comprising the form and its context. Good fit is a desirable property of this ensemble which relates to some particular division of the ensemble into form and context. Max Bill mainatined how important form is in design. Form represents a self-contained concept, and its embodiment in an object results in that object becoming a work of art. Futhermore, this explains why we use form so freguently in a comparative sense for determining whether one thing is less or more beautiful than another, and why the ideal of absolute beauty is always the standard by which we appraise form, and through form, art itself. Hence form has became synonymous with beauty. On the other hand, Laszlo Moholy-Nagy stated the importance of function as follows. Function means the task an object is designed to fulfill the task instrument is shaping the form. Unfortunately, this principle was not appreciated at the same time but through the endeavors of Frank Lloyd Wright and of the Bauhaus group and its many collegues in Europe, the idea of functionalism became the keynote of the twenites. Functionalism soon became a cheap slogan, however, and its original meaning blurred. It is neccessary to reexamine it in the light of present circumstances. Charles William Eliot expressed his idea on the relations between function and beauty. Beauty often results chiefly from fittness: indeed it is easy to manitain that nothing is fair except what is fit its uses or functions. If the function of the product of a machine be useful and valuable, an the machine be eminently fit for its function, it conspicuously has the beauty of fittness. A locomotive or a steamship has the same sort of beauty, derived from the supreme fittness for its function. As functions vary, so will those beauty..vary. However, it is impossible to study form and function in separate beings. Function can't be existed without form, and without function, form is nothing. In other words, form is a function's container, and function is content in form. It can be said that, therefore, the form and function are indispensable and commensal individuals which have coetemal relations. From the different point of view, sometimes, one is more emphasized than the other, but in this case, the logic is only accepted on the assumption of recognizing the importance of the other's entity. The fact can be proved what Frank Hoyd wright said that form and function are one. In spite of that, the form and function should be considered as independent indivisuals, because they are too important to be treated just as the simple single one. Form and function have flexible properties to the context. In other words, the context plays a role as the barometer to define the form and function, also which implies every meaning of surroun'||'&'||'not;dings. Thus, design is formed under the influence of situations. Situations are dynamic, like the design process itself, in which fixed focus can be cripping. Moreover, situations control over making the good design. Judging from the respect, I defined the good design in my thesis An Analytic Research on Desigh Ethic, "good design is to solve the problem by the most proper way in the situations." Situations are changeable, and so is design. There is no progress without change, but change is not neccessarily progress. It is highly desirable that there changes be beneficial to mankind. Our main problem is to be able to discriminate between that which should be discarded and that which should be kept, built upon, and improved. Form and Function are no exception. The practical function gives birth to the inevitable form and the $$\mu$ti-classified function is delivered to the varieties of form. All of these are depended upon changeable situations. That is precisely the situations of "situation de'||'&'||'not;sign", the concept of moving from the design of things to the design of the circumstances in which things are used. From this point of view, the core of form and function is depended upon how the designer can manage it efficiently in given situations. That is to say that the creativity designer plays an important role to fulfill the purpose. Generally speaking, creativity is the organization of a concept in response to a human need-a solution that is both satisfying and innovative. In order to meet human needs, creative design activities require a special intuitive insight which is set into motion by purposeful imagination. Therefore, creativity is the most essential quality of every designer. In addition, designers share with other creative people a compulsive ingenuity and a passion for imaginative solutions which will meet their criteria for excellence. Ultimately, it is said that the form and function is the matter which belongs to the desire of creative designers who constantly try to bring new thing into being to create new things. In accordance with that the main puppose of this thesis is to catch every meaning of the form and function and to close analyze their relations for the promotion of understanding and devising practical application to gradual progression in design. The thesis is composed of four parts: Introduction, Form, Function and Conclusion. Introduction, the purpose and background of the research are presented. In Chapter I, orgin of form, perception of form, and classification of form are studied. In Chapter II, generation of function, development of function, and diversification of function are considered. Conclusion, some concluding words are mentioned.ioned.

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