• Title/Summary/Keyword: dynamic factor

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Forecasting Korea's GDP growth rate based on the dynamic factor model (동적요인모형에 기반한 한국의 GDP 성장률 예측)

  • Kyoungseo Lee;Yaeji Lim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.255-263
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    • 2024
  • GDP represents the total market value of goods and services produced by all economic entities, including households, businesses, and governments in a country, during a specific time period. It is a representative economic indicator that helps identify the size of a country's economy and influences government policies, so various studies are being conducted on it. This paper presents a GDP growth rate forecasting model based on a dynamic factor model using key macroeconomic indicators of G20 countries. The extracted factors are combined with various regression analysis methodologies to compare results. Additionally, traditional time series forecasting methods such as the ARIMA model and forecasting using common components are also evaluated. Considering the significant volatility of indicators following the COVID-19 pandemic, the forecast period is divided into pre-COVID and post-COVID periods. The findings reveal that the dynamic factor model, incorporating ridge regression and lasso regression, demonstrates the best performance both before and after COVID.

Dynamic Responses Characteristics of Steel Box Railway Bridges Subjected to Train Loading (열차주행에 따른 강박스 철도교의 동적응답특성)

  • Park, Sun-Joon;Kang, Sung-Hoo;Jo, Eun-Pyung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2009.10a
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    • pp.772-778
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    • 2009
  • By rising the interests of the railroad, It has been required the research about railroad structure. And since 2000, the study about railway bridges caused by steel box railway bridges has been only 0.2%. So I was hard to find out about steel box railway bridges. In this study, I evaluate and analyze 4 types(KTX, Saemaeul, Mugunghwa, Freight) of dynamic caused by train loading, natural frequency and damping ratio, verticality deflection and verticality acceleration, end slope deflection, impact factor for dynamic characteristics analysis. natural frequency was measured 2.45Hz~3.34Hz and damping ratio revealed for 1.26~2.84%. Maximum verticality deflection(4.86mm) was sufficiently satisfied the design criteria(30.1mm), but in the case of verticality acceleration's respond, design criteria BRDM(Bridge Design Manual) & CTRL presentation derive rail limit value 0.35g be more than value 6 time recorded, maximum was measured 0.49g in 3 kinds of train(KTX, Saemaeul, Mugunghwa), except for Freight. Survey impact factor of Experiment bridge was 0.20 which is measured when the KTX(15:04) was driving. impact factor is enough contended with design criteria 0.29 which is presented in domestic railway design criteria and thoroughly guarantee the dynamic stability.

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ANN based on forgetting factor for online model updating in substructure pseudo-dynamic hybrid simulation

  • Wang, Yan Hua;Lv, Jing;Wu, Jing;Wang, Cheng
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2020
  • Substructure pseudo-dynamic hybrid simulation (SPDHS) combining the advantages of physical experiments and numerical simulation has become an important testing method for evaluating the dynamic responses of structures. Various parameter identification methods have been proposed for online model updating. However, if there is large model gap between the assumed numerical models and the real models, the parameter identification methods will cause large prediction errors. This study presents an ANN (artificial neural network) method based on forgetting factor. During the SPDHS of model updating, a dynamic sample window is formed in each loading step with forgetting factor to keep balance between the new samples and historical ones. The effectiveness and anti-noise ability of this method are evaluated by numerical analysis of a six-story frame structure with BRBs (Buckling Restrained Brace). One BRB is simulated in OpenFresco as the experimental substructure, while the rest is modeled in MATLAB. The results show that ANN is able to present more hysteresis behaviors that do not exist in the initial assumed numerical models. It is demonstrated that the proposed method has good adaptability and prediction accuracy of restoring force even under different loading histories.

Dynamic Responses Characteristics of Steel Box Railway Bridges Subjected to Train Loading (열차주행에 따른 강박스 철도교의 동적응답특성)

  • Park, Sun-Joon;Kang, Sung-Hoo;Jo, Eun-Pyung
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.1306-1314
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    • 2009
  • By rising the interests of the railroad, It has been required the research about railroad structure. And since 2000, the study about railway bridges caused by steel box railway bridges has been only 0.2 %. So I was hard to find out about steel box railway bridges. In this study, I evaluate and analyze 4 types(KTX, Saemaeul, Mugunghwa, Freight) of dynamic caused by train loading, natural frequency and damping ratio, verticality deflection and verticality acceleration, end slope deflection, impact factor for dynamic characteristics analysis. natural frequency was measured 2.45 Hz~3.34 Hz and damping ratio revealed for 1.26~2.84 %. Maximum verticality deflection(4.86 mm) was sufficiently satisfied the design criteria(30.1 mm), but in the case of verticality acceleration's respond, design criteria BRDM(bridge design manual) & CTRL presentation derive rail limit value 0.35 g be more than value 6 time recorded, maximum was measured 0.49 g in 3 kinds of train(KTX, Saemaeul, Mugunghwa), except for Freight. Survey impact factor of Experiment bridge was 0.20 which is measured when the KTX(15:04) was driving. impact factor is enough contended with design criteria 0.29 which is presented in domestic railway design criteria and thoroughly guarantee the dynamic stability.

Dynamic Interfacial Crack in Bonded Anisotropic Strip Under Out-of-Plane Deformation (면외변형하의 이방성 띠판에 대한 동적계면균열)

  • Park, Jae-Wan;Choe, Seong-Ryeol
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.949-958
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    • 2001
  • A semi-infinite interfacial crack propagated with constant velocity in two bonded anisotropic strips under out-of-plane clamped displacements is analyzed. Using Fourier integral transform the problem is formulated and the Wiener-Hopf equation is derived. By solving this equation the asymptotic stress and displacement fields near the crack tip are obtained, where the results get more general expressions applicable not only to isotropic/orthotropic materials but also to the extent of the anisotropic material having one plane of elastic symmetry for the interfacial crack. The dynamic stress intensity factor is obtained as a closed form, which is decreased as the velocity of crack propagation increases. The critical velocity where the stress intensity factor comes to zero is obtained, which agrees with the lower value between the critical values of parallel crack merged in the material 1 and 2 adjacent to the interface. Using the near tip fields of stresses and displacements, the dynamic energy release rate is also obtained as a form of the stress intensiy factor.

Design of active power factor control AC/DC converter having current control loop with no compensator (전류 제어 루프에 보상을 행하지 않는 능동 역률 제어 AC/DC 컴버터의 제어기 설계)

  • 이인호;김성환;유지윤;박귀태
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.216-223
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    • 1996
  • The active power factor control AC/DC converter needs a current loop compensator to obtain better dynamic characteristics and power factor performance, but the optimal design of a current loop compensator is difficult because the AC/DC converter is a nonlinear system having periodically varying poles and zeros. The predictive current control scheme generates a control input using the dynamic equations of the AC/DC converter so that the dynamic of the AC/DC converter is included in the controller and the necessary bandwidth and the gain characteristics of the current control loop are satisfied. And as a result, a compensator becomes unnecessary and the current loop shows the improved current loop characteristics. In this paper, a power factor controller without current loop compensator by adopting a predictive current control scheme is designed and the designed power factor controller is modelled by using a small signal perturbation modelling technique, and simulated to investigate its small signal characteristics. A 200 W power factor control AC/DC converter is built to verify the effectiveness of the proposed power factor controller.

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Idiosyncratic Volatility, Conditional Liquidity, and Cross-section of Stock Returns in Korea (고유변동성, 조건부 유동성, 그리고 주식수익률의 횡단면에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Sang-Yong;Cho, Seong-Soon;Park, Soon-hong
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.121-134
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - This study examines whether flight-to-liquidity (FTL) explains the dynamic liquidity risk on stock returns, and whether it has a significant influence on determinants the cross-section of stock returns. Design/methodology/approach - This study suggests a new risk factor, dynamic liquidity hedge portfolio (DLP), to reflect the dynamic impact of liquidity risk on stock returns and the Fama-MacBeth 2 stage regression analysis is employed in order to analyze the data. Findings - First, the DLP factor shows more positive and significant beta for the small or illiquidity stocks. Second, the DLP shows a different influence than SMB (size risk factor), HML (value risk factor), NMP (liquidity risk factor), FTVOL (total volatility factor) in determining the cross-section of stock returns. In addition, the DLP has a statistically significant risk premium of around 5%, which is relatively larger than other risk factors. Research implications or Originality - This study has academic value in terms of newly confirming that the DLP factor has a more significant impact on cross-sectional determination of stock returns than other risk factors by proposing a conditional liquidity factor that can explain the FTL phenomenon.

Development of Dynamic Photoelastic Experimental Hybrid method for Propagating Cracks in Orthotropic Material (직교이방성체내의 진전 균열에 대한 동적 광탄성 실험의 Hybrid 법 개발)

  • Shin, Dong-Chul;Hawong, Jai-Sug
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2000.04a
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    • pp.236-241
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, transparent dynamic photoelastic experimental hybrid method for propagating cracks in orthotropic material is developed. Using transparent dynamic photoelastic experimental hybrid method, we can obtain stress intensity factor and separate the stress components from only isochromatic fringe patterns without using isoclinics. It is certified that the dynamic photoelastic experimental hybrid method is very useful for the problems of the dynamic tincture mechanics.

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Development of a double cantilever sandwich beam method for evaluating frequency dependence of dynamic modulus and damping factor of rubber materials (고무의 동탄성계수와 손실계수의 주파수 의존성을 평가하기 위한 양팔 샌드위치보 시험법의 개발)

  • 김광우;최낙삼
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society For Composite Materials Conference
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    • 2001.05a
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    • pp.19-22
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    • 2001
  • This paper proposes a double cantilever sandwich-beam method for evaluating the frequency dependence of material dynamic characteristics. The flexural vibration of a double cantilever sandwich-beam specimen with a partially inserted rubber layer was studied using a finite element simulation in combination with the sine-sweep test. Quadratic relationships of dynamic elastic modulus and material loss factor of rubbers with frequency were quantitatively suggested employing the least square error method.

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Impact factor and Dynamic response of Daejon Maglev Guideway under the Sleeper Conditions (침목 간격에 따른 자기부상 시험선로 가이드웨이의 동적응답분석 및 충격계수산정)

  • Hong, Yu-Na;Chung, Won-Seok;Yeo, In-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.11b
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    • pp.846-853
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    • 2008
  • Maglev System is expected to be a new public transportation for future because of its special characteristics. Sleepers of railway role on transferring the lateral load to guideway for Maglev and controlling the distance between rails. Variation of distance of sleepers can affect dynamic responses for maglev guideway. In this paper, Daejon maglev guideway is analyzed to find proper tie spacing of a maglev system. The analysis included using a maglev trainload and also the dead load as the primary forces on bridges. Not only the dynamic behavior of bridges is investigated under sleeper conditions, but also impact factor about vertical displacement on the guideway is produced. This guideway is analyzed in four cases followed by changing spacing of sleeper and then obtained dynamic characteristics such as displacements, acceleration and impact factor by Finite Element Analysis.

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