• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.12
• /
• pp.21-31
• /
• 2020

This study investigates the dynamic effects of economic development, international cooperation, electricity consumption, and political risk on the escalation of CO₂ emission in Vietnam. We adopted autoregressive distributed lag model and Granger causality method to examine the interaction between CO₂ and various economic and political factors, including foreign direct investment, trade openness, economic growth, manufacture, electricity consumption, and political risk in Vietnam since the economic revolution in 1986. The findings reflect opposite influence between these factors and the level of CO₂ in the intermediate and long-term durations. Accordingly, foreign direct investment and CO₂ emission have a bidirectional relationship, in which foreign direct investment accelerates short-term CO₂ emission, but reduces it in the long run through an interactive mechanism. Moreover, economic development increases the volume of CO₂ emission in both short and long run. There was also evidence that political risk has a negative effect on the environment. Overall, the findings confirm lasting negative environmental effects of economic growth, trade liberalization, and increased electricity consumption. These factors, with Granger causality, mutually affect the escalation of CO₂ in Vietnam. In order to control the level of CO₂, more efforts are required to improve administrative transparency, attract high-quality foreign investment, and decouple the environment from economic development.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.569-593
• /
• 2005

This study tests for the law of one price and Grander Causality between the EU ETS and Nord Pool $CO_2$ allowance prices. The Johansen cointegration test shows that there exists a long run equilibrium between EU ETS and Nord Pool prices and support the law of one price. The Granger casuality test suggests that the EU ETS leads Nord Pool for all vintages traded. The test results imply that the EU ETS can be regarded as the representative carbon market in the EU where many exchanges just started competing for the newly rising market for carbon.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.2 no.2
• /
• pp.5-12
• /
• 2015

The authors calculate the long-term predictability of GDP, domestic demand, investment, and net exports for Guangdong province, P.R. China from 2000 to 2013. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model with quarterly data for this period is first co-integrated then the Granger causality test is applied to empirically assess the relationships among gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, investment, and net exports. There is a strong causality effect between investment and net exports in Guangdong province. However, the variance decomposition results indicate that exports respond to foreign shocks rather than domestic ones, making their impact on the Guangdong economy to predict. Results show the stimulating effect of domestic demand on GDP is larger than the stimulating effect of net exports and much larger than even the stimulating effect of investment. The analysis suggests that there are dynamic influences with various levels of persistence between GDP, consumption, investment, and net exports. Macroeconomic policy adjustments are urgently required to expand domestic demand and thereby stimulate economic growth in Guangdong province.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.44 no.2
• /
• pp.173-188
• /
• 2019

The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between the logistics industry and the economic growth in Korea, and to provide implications for the contribution of the logistics industry to economic growth. Unlike Previous Related Studies, we derive short-term and long-term effects through dynamic panel analysis such as panel Granger causality test and impulse response function estimation using panel vector error correction model. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows: Labor input of the logistics industry has the greatest positive impact on economic growth. And capital input and total sales of the logistics industry have a negative effect on economic growth. This means that Korea's logistics industry features labor-intensive growth. In addition, We have also found that the growth (sales) and capital input of the logistics industry have not yet had a direct positive impact on economic growth. Therefore, the results of this analysis provide implications for the direction of logistics industry policy to enhance contribution of the logistics industry to economic growth.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.9 no.1
• /
• pp.13-24
• /
• 2022

The main goal of this study is to look at how South Korea can catch up to the rest of the world through policy-driven structural change and manufacturing revolutions. To achieve the objective, this study used annual data on real exports and real GDP from the World Development Indicator WDI of South Korea for the period 1960 to 2019. The study's goal is to use econometrics to detect this policy-driven structural change trend. Multiple nonlinear Granger causality test was used to accomplish this. The findings revealed structural breaks and nonlinearities in the dynamic link between South Korea's real GDP and real exports. Furthermore, results also show evidence of multiple structural breaks in South Korean data. South Korea's economic catch-up was the result of a constant reevaluation of industrial policies, readjustment, and structural change to constantly explore and utilize comparative advantage, realizing economies of scale at the global level, and reallocating and redistribution of resources towards productive sectors with high value-added output, according to econometric analysis. If South Korea would have not done this structural change this miracle to escape the middle-income trap would not have been possible. These findings support the descriptive evidence of structural change in favor of manufacturing revolutions and value addition industry development in South Korea.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
• /
• v.11 no.4
• /
• pp.189-203
• /
• 2020

Purpose - This study aims in analyzing the dynamic relationship between household loans and housing prices according to the characteristics of depository institutions after the financial crisis, identifying the recent trends between them, and making policy suggestions for stabilizing house prices. Design/methodology/approach - The monthly data used in this study are household loans, household loan interest rates, and housing prices ranging from January 2012 to May 2020, and came from ECOS of the Bank of Korea and Liiv-on of Kookmin Bank. This study used vector auto-regression, generalized impulse response function, and forecast error variance decomposition with the data so as to yield analysis results. Findings - The analysis of this study no more shows that the household loan interest rates in both deposit banks and non-bank deposit institutions had statistically significant effects on housing prices. Also, unlike the previous studies, there was statistically significant bi-directional causality between housing prices and household loans in neither deposit banks nor non-bank deposit institutions. Rather, it was found that there is a unidirectional causality from housing prices to household loans in deposit banks, which is considered that housing prices have one-sided effects on household loans due to the overheated housing market after the financial crisis. Research implications or Originality - As a result, Korea's housing market is closely related to deposit banks, and housing prices are acting as more dominant information variables than interest rates or loans under the long-term low interest rate trend. Therefore, in order to stabilize housing prices, the housing supply must be continuously made so that everyone can enjoy housing services equally. In addition, the expansion and reinforcement of the social security net should be realized systematically so as to stop households from being troubled with the housing price decline.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
• /
• v.20 no.11
• /
• pp.3507-3515
• /
• 1996

This paper presents an attempt to find the physical structure of dynamic systems which achieves the behavior of a given system function. The scheme pursued by the paper would be regarded as synthesizing dynamic systems, and a method to synthesize them analytically is proposed by means of bond graph prototypes. The method adopts several conceptsused to synthesize networks in the electrical field, but yet deconstrates its own strengths such as the freedom from assigning causality and determining junction types. Also, itis shown that this method has further advantages in reticulating a given specification into feedforward and feedback components relative to network synthesis and the method is examined though an example to trace the outline of the analytical synthesis of dynamic systems using bond graph prototypes.

• Management & Information Systems Review
• /
• v.22
• /
• pp.1-23
• /
• 2007

This paper investigates the relationships between exports, firm size, and firm dynamics. It is based on a longitudinal data covering listed firms in the Korean manufacturing industry. We found the stylized fact that the probability that a firm is exporter increases with firm size. A regression model for the determinant of export/sales ratio including dynamic adjustment process is tested on a cross-section sample for the year 2001. Empirical findings suggest that there is a positive and inversely U-shaped relationship between firm size and export/sales ratio, just for basic material and capital good industry. Except for firm size, the hypotheses concerning human capital intensity, physical capital intensity, R&D intensity, and patent are rejected. Using Granger causality test, we found that the rate of growth of total sales influences the change of the export/sales ratio with time lag for medium-sized firms. Finally, some policy implications are presented.

• Management & Information Systems Review
• /
• v.39 no.2
• /
• pp.17-37
• /
• 2020

The purpose of this study is to investigate the global spillover effects through the existence of linear and nonlinear causal relationships between the US, European and BRIC financial markets after the period from the introduction of the Euro, the financial crisis and the subsequent EU debt crisis in 2007~2010. Although the global spillover effects of the financial crisis are well described, the nature of the volatility effects and the spread mechanisms between the US, Europe and BRIC stock markets have not been systematically examined. A stepwise filtering methodology was introduced to investigate the dynamic linear and nonlinear causality, which included a vector autoregressive regression model and a multivariate GARCH model. The sample in this paper includes the post-Euro period, and also includes the financial crisis and the Eurozone financial and sovereign crisis. The empirical results can have many implications for the efficiency of the BRIC stock market. These results not only affect the predictability of this market, but can also be useful in future research to quantify the process of financial integration in the market. The interdependence between the United States, Europe and the BRIC can reveal significant implications for financial market regulation, hedging and trading strategies. And the findings show that the BRIC has been integrated internationally since the sub-prime and financial crisis erupted in the United States, and the spillover effects have become more specific and remarkable. Furthermore, there is no consistent evidence supporting the decoupling phenomenon. Some nonlinear causality persists even after filtering during the investigation period. Although the tail distribution dependence and higher moments may be significant factors for the remaining interdependencies, this can be largely explained by the simple volatility spillover effects in nonlinear causality.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
• /
• v.29 no.2
• /
• pp.77-96
• /
• 1998

Fisheries products in Korea generally go through three markets, namely the wholesale market at production site (Market A), the wholesale market at consumption site (Market B), and the retail market (Market C), from producers to end consumers. As the products move from Market A through Market B to Market C, the marginal gap of prices asked in these markets demonstrates an apparent relationship. The producers, middlemen, consumers, and governmental departments concerned may influence the marketing prices of fisheries products. This study employing the cointegration theory tries to investigate whether causality of the price-setting among these markets exists and, if any, what it is. The authors have focused their attention on fisheries markets in Pusan, analyzing the long-run equilibrium relationship and causality between the prices of hairtail and squid among markets at different levels. Data used in this study cover the period f개m August 1984 to December 1997 fer hairtail, and the period from May 1989 to December 1997 for squid. The main findings of the study may be summarized as follows: First, regardless of the price time-series of hairtail and squid in individual market, the first difference is necessary fur satisfying the stationary conditions since each time-series is a first integration. This means homogeneous integration of time-series, which is a requirement of the long-run equilibrium of prices at different markets, is satisfied. Second, the study of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the prices at Market A and Market B shows that a long-run equilibrium relationship does exist for selling prices of the two species at Market A and Market B. Third, the ECM (error correction model ) used here to describe the long- and short-run dynamics of price change demonstrates that, in the case of squid, the price change in Market A will lead to a corresponding price change in Market B in the long-run period. In the short-run, however, the price at Market H is not only influenced by the price change in Market A but influence the price at Market A as well, that is, the Prices between Market A and Market B have a feedback effect. It should be stressed that the limitation in data collection, which cover only two species of hairtail and squid, is likely to cause a sampling bias. Nonetheless, we may conclude that a dynamic relation in the formation of prices does exist in view of the transaction amount of species at different markets. It is believed that the conclusion drawn from this study would not only contribute to a long-lasted debate on the direction of causality of price-setting among academic circle and fishing community, but would provide a useful standard for the policy makers in charge of the price-setting of fisheries products as well.