• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.113-121
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• 2021

The occurrence mechanisms of heatwave have been conventionally studied at a synoptic scale. However, the implications of precedent droughts on the following up heatwave occurrences have not been elucidated and are important to address the complex causal mechanisms of heatwaves. Therefore, this study evaluated the causality and implication of the seasonally antecedent droughts to summer heatwaves that occurred for 46 years since 1974 using partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The resulting contribution of winter (spring and summer) droughts to summer heatwaves for Seoul-Gyeonggi, Gangwon, and Chungcheong provinces were 37 % (29 % and 22 %), 21 % (18 % and 29 %), and 17 % (8 % and 38 %), respectively. This is due to the regional variability of seasonal drought impacts. Furthermore, Gangwon and Chungcheong provinces, which have a higher level of impacts of summer droughts to summer heatwaves, are more likely to be exposed to the compound drought-heatwave damages compared to Seoul-Gyeonggi province, which has relatively a low-level impact of summer drought.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.60 no.1
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• pp.11-20
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• 2018

This study is to calibrate the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) water quality of SS (Suspended Solid), T-P (Total Phosphorus), and T-N (Total Nitrogen) by focusing on 2014~2015 drought periods and identify the important parameters. For Gongdo watershed ($366.5km^2$), the SWAT was calibrated for 2 cases of 2002~2006 normal year focusing calibration and 2014~2015 drought focusing calibration respectively. The parameters of N_UPDIS (Nitrogen uptake distribution parameter) and CMN (Rate factor for humus mineralization of active organic nutrients) played important roles for T-N calibration during drought periods. The SWAT SS, T-N, and T-P average $R^2$ (Coefficient of determination) results by focusing on 2014~2015 drought periods calibration showed 0.71, 0.65 and 0.62 while 2002~2006 normal year focusing calibration showed 0.63, 0.58 and 0.50 respectively. Also SWAT SS, T-N, and T-P model efficiency NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency) results by focusing on drought period (2014~2015) calibrated showed 0.76, 0.77, 0.87 respectively. Even though the SS, T-P parameters were unchanged during the calibration, the SS and T-P results were improved by the hydrological parameters (SCS-CN, SOL_K, SLSOIL) during the drought periods. The SWAT water quality calibration needs to be considered for the movement of SS and nutrients transport especially focusing on the drought characteristics.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.10
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• pp.877-885
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• 2016

In this study, the Standard Precipitation Index(SPI), meteorological drought index, was used to evaluate the temporal and spatial assessment of drought forecasting results for all cross Korea. For the drought forecasting, the Multi Layer Perceptron-Artificial Neural Network (MLP-ANN) was selected and the drought forecasting was performed according to different forecasting lead time for SPI (3) and SPI (6). The precipitation data observed in 59 gaging stations of Korea Meteorological Adminstration (KMA) from 1976~2015. For the performance evaluation of the drought forecasting, the binary classification confusion matrix, such as evaluating the status of drought occurrence based on threshold, was constituted. Then Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) score and F score according to conditional probability are computed. As a result of ROC analysis on forecasting performance, drought forecasting performance, of applying the MLP-ANN model, shows satisfactory forecasting results. Consequently, two-month and five-month leading forecasts were possible for SPI (3) and SPI (6), respectively.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.171-182
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• 2014

The objective of this study is to evaluate the utilization of bivariate joint drought index in South Korea. In order to develop the bivariate joint drought index, in this study, Clayton copula was used to estimate the joint distribution function and the calibration method was employed for parameter estimation. Precipitation and soil moisture data were selected as input data of bivariate joint drought index for period of 1977~2012. The time series analysis, ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis, spatial analysis were used to evaluate the bivariate joint drought index with SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and SSI (Standardized Soil moisture Index). As a result, SPI performed better for drought onset and SSI for drought demise. On the other hand the bivariate joint drought index captured both drought onset and demise very well. The ROC score of bivariate joint drought index was higher than that of SPI and SSI, and it also reflected the local drought situations. The bivariate joint drought index overcomes the limitations of existing drought indices and is useful for drought analysis.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.10
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• pp.875-886
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• 2018

This study evaluated drought severity by bivariate frequency analysis using drought magnitude and precipitation deficit. A drought event was defined by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the precipitation deficit was estimated using reference precipitation corresponding to the SPI -1. In previous studies, drought magnitude and duration were used for bivariate frequency analysis. However, since these two variables have a largely linear relationship, extensibility of drought information is not great compared to the univariate frequency analysis for each variable. In the case of drought in 2015, return periods of 'drought magnitude-precipitation deficit' in the Seoul, Yangpyeong, and Chungju indicated severe drought over 300 years. However, the result of 'drought magnitude-duration' showed a significant difference by evaluating the return period of about 10, 50, and 50 years. Although a drought including the rainy season was seriously lacking in precipitation, drought magnitude did not adequately represent the severity of the absolute lack of precipitation. This showed that there is a limit to expressing the actual severity of drought. The results of frequency analysis for 'drought magnitude-precipitation deficit' include the absolute deficit of precipitation information, so which could consider being a useful indicator to cope with drought.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.66 no.2
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• pp.35-52
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• 2024

This study conducted an assessment of potential impacts on the drought in agricultural reservoirs using the recently proposed SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on agricultural water resources and infrastructure vulnerability within Gyeongsangnam-do, focusing on 15 agricultural reservoirs. The assessment was based on the KRC (Korea Rural Community Corporation) 1^st vulnerability assessment methodology using RCP scenarios for 2021. However, there are limitations due to the necessity for climate impact assessments based on the latest climate information and the uncertainties associated with using a single scenario from national standard scenarios. Therefore, we applied the 13 GCM (General Circulation Model) outputs based on the newly introduced SSP scenarios. Furthermore, due to difficulties in data acquisiton, we reassessed potential impacts by redistributing weights for proxy variables. As a main result, with lower future potential impacts observed in areas with higher precipitation along the southern coast. Overall, the potential impacts increased for all reservoirs as we moved into the future, maintaining their relative rankings, yet showing no significant variability in the far future. Although the overall pattern of potential impacts aligns with previous evaluations, reevaluation under similar conditions with different spatial resolutions emphasizes the critical role of meteorological data spatial resolution in assessments. The results of this study are expected to improve the credibility and accuracy formulation of vulnerability employing more scientific predictions.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.305-314
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• 2016

In this study, a quantitative assessment was carried out in order to identify the agricultural drought in time and space using the Terra MODIS remote sensing data for the agricultural drought. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were selected by MOD13A3 image which shows the changes in vegetation conditions. The land cover classification was made to show only vegetation excluding water and urbanized areas in order to collect the land information efficiently by Type1 of MCD12Q1 images. NDVI and EVI index calculated using land cover classification indicates the strong seasonal tendency. Therefore, standardized Vegetation Stress Index Anomaly (VSIA) of EVI were used to estimated the medium-scale regions in Korea during the extreme drought year 2001. In addition, the agricultural drought damages were investigated in the country's past, and it was calculated based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using the data of the ground stations. The VSIA were compared with SPI based on historical drought in Korea and application for drought assessment was made by temporal and spatial correlation analysis to diagnose the properties of agricultural droughts in Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.447-456
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• 2023

Risk assessment on Jeju Special Self-Governing Province(JSSGP)'s water supply facilities and establishment of adaptation measures for climate crisis factors were implemented. JSSGP's vulnerability to the climate crisis was high in the order of drought, heat wave, heavy rain and strong wind. As a drought adaptation measure, policies of water saving and revenue water ratio improvement were considered. As for the heat wave adaptation measure, the introduction of an advanced water treatment process was suggested in response to the increase of algae cell number which resulting in taste and odor problem. As for heavy rain adaptation measures, the installation and operation of automatic coagulant injection devices for water purification plants that take turbid surface water were proposed. As a measure to adapt to strong winds, stabilization of power supply such as installation of dual power line was proposed in preparation for power outages. It is expected that water facilities will be able to supply high-quality tap water to customers even under extreme climate conditions without interruption through risk assessment for climate crisis factors and active implementation of adaptation measures.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.39 no.6
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• pp.743-750
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• 2019

Most of the water supply facilities that use rivers as sources do not have monitoring facilities such as precipitation and stream flow measurement, and there is no judgment standard for drought response such as water intake control in river flow during dry season. In addition, it was confirmed that local government officials, who deal with actual drought work, have limitations in applying the drought index (SPI, PDSI, etc.) and diffusion models that have been proposed so far in advance. Therefore, in this study, the drought prediction system was constructed to determine the number of water-intake available days using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and the water supply network from the intake source to the beneficiary area, suggesting the drought spreading time and space.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.22-34
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to assess agricultural drought using modified SWSI(Surface Water Supply Index) in Ango and Anseo agricultural district. Precipitation, reservoir inflow and storage data were used for input data of modified SWSI. Precipitation data was obtained from KMA(Korea Meteorological Administration) and reservoir storage data was obtained from KARICO(Korea Agricultural & Rural Infrastructure Corporation) and reservoir inflow data was simulated by SLURP(Simple LUmped Reservoir Parametric). SWSI based agricultural drought index was evaluated for the period of 1983 and 2001. As results, for the drought periods(July-1994, June-1995, May-2001) agricultural drought indices represented extremely drought states. The result was compared with PDSI and SWSI and checked the applicability of the suggested index in our agricultural drought situation.