• Title/Summary/Keyword: distress model

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Return Premium of Financial Distress and Negative Book Value: Emerging Market Case

  • KAKINUMA, Yosuke
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.8
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine a financial distress premium in the emerging market. A risk-return trade-off of negative book equity (NBE) and distress firms is empirically analyzed using data from the Stock Exchange of Thailand. This research employs Ohlson's (1980) bankruptcy model as a measurement of distress risk. The results indicate that distress firms outperform solvent firms in the Thai market and deny distress anomaly often found in the developed market. Fama-Frech (1993) three-factor model and Carhart (1997) four-factor model verify the existence of a distress premium in the Thai capital market. Risk-seeking investors demand greater compensation for bearing risks of distress firms' going concern. This paper provides fresh evidence that default risk is a significant explanatory factor in pricing stocks in the emerging market. Also, this study sheds light on the role of NBE firms in asset pricing. Most studies eliminate NBE firms from their sample. However, NBE firms yield superior average cross-sectional returns, albeit with higher volatility. Investors are rewarded with distress risks associated with NBE firms. The outperformance of NBE firms is statistically significant when compared to the overall market. The NBE premium disappears when factoring size, value, and momentum in time-series analysis.

A Study on the Distress Prediction in the Fishery Industry (수산기업의 부실화 요인 및 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yun-Won;Jang, Chang-Ik;Hong, Jae-Beom
    • Proceedings of the Fisheries Business Administration Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2007.12a
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    • pp.167-184
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    • 2007
  • The objectives of this paper are to identify the causes of the corporate distress and to develop a distress prediction model with the financial information in fishery industry. In this study, the corporate distress is defined as economic failure and technical insolvency. Economic failure occurs by reduction, shut-down, or change of the business and technical insolvency results from failure to pay the financial debt of companies. The 33 distressed firms from 1991 to 2003 were composed by 14 economic failure companies, 15 technical insolvency companies. 4 companies applied to the both cases. The analysis of distress prediction of fishery companies were accomplished according to the distress definition. The analysis was carried out as two steps. The first step was the univariate analysis, which was used for checking the prediction power of individual financial variable. The t-test is used to identify the differences in financial variables between the distressed group and the non-distressed group. The second step was to develop distress prediction model with logistic regression. The variables showed the significant difference in univariate analysis were selected as the prediction variables. The financial ratios, used in the logistic regression model, were selected by backward elimination method. To test stability of the distress prediction model, the whole sample was divided as three sub-samples, period 1(1990$\sim$1993), period 2(1994$\sim$1997), period 3(1998$\sim$2002). The final model built from whole sample appled each three sub-samples. The results of the logistic analysis were as follows. the growth, profitability, stability ratios showed the significant effect on the distress. the some different result was found in the sub-sample (economic failure and technical insolvency). The growth and the profitability were important to predict the economic failure. The profitability and the activity were important to predict technical insolvency. It means that profitability is the really important factor to the fishery companies.

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A Study on the Distress Prediction in the Fishery Industry (수산기업의 부실화 요인과 그 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Chang-Ick;Lee, Yun-Weon;Hong, Jae-Bum
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.61-79
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    • 2008
  • The objectives of this paper are to identify the causes of the corporate distress and to develop a distress prediction model with the financial information in fishery industry. In this study, the corporate distress is defined as economic failure and technical insolvency. Economic failure occurs by reduction, shut - down, or change of the business and technical insolvency results from failure to pay the financial debt of companies. The 33 distressed firms from 1991 to 2003 were composed by 14 economic failure companies, 15 technical insolvency companies. 4 companies applied to the both cases. The analysis of distress prediction of fishery companies were accomplished according to the distress definition. The analysis was carried out as two steps. The first step was the univariate analysis, which was used for checking the prediction power of individual financial variable. The t - test is used to identify the differences in financial variables between the distressed group and the non - distressed group. The second step was to develop distress prediction model with logistic regression. The variables showed the significant difference in univariate analysis were selected as the prediction variables. The financial ratios, used in the logistic regression model, were selected by backward elimination method. To test stability of the distress prediction model, the whole sample was divided as three sub-samples, period 1(1990 - 1993), period 2(1994 - 1997), period 3(1998 - 2002). The final model built from whole sample appled each three sub - samples. The results of the logistic analysis were as follows. the growth, profitability, stability ratios showed the significant effect on the distress. the some different result was found in the sub - sample (economic failure and technical insolvency). The growth and the profitability were important to predict the economic failure. The profitability and the activity were important to predict technical insolvency. It means that profitability is the really important factor to the fishery companies.

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Predicting Financial Distress Distribution of Companies

  • VU, Giang Huong;NGUYEN, Chi Thi Kim;PHAM, Dang Van;TRAN, Diu Thi Phuong;VU, Toan Duc
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.20 no.10
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: Predicting the financial distress distribution of an enterprise is important to warn enterprises about their future. Predicting the possibility of financial distress helps companies have action plans to avoid the possibility of bankruptcy. In this study, the author conducted a forecast of the financial distress distribution of enterprises. Research design, data and methodology: The forecasting method is based on Logit and Discriminant analysis models. The data was collected from companies listed on Vietnam Stock Exchange from 2012 to 2020. In which there are both companies suffer from financial distress and non-financial distress. Results: The forecast analysis results show that the Logistic model has better predictability than the Discriminant analysis model. At the same time, the results also indicate three main factors affecting the financial distress of enterprises at all three research stages: (1) Liquidity, (2) Interest payment, and (3) firm size. In addition, at each stage, the impact of factors on financial distress differs. Conclusions: From the results of this study, the author also made several recommendations to help companies better control company operations to avoid falling into financial distress. Adjustments to current assets, debt, and company expansion considerations are the most important factors for companies.

Assessing Distress Prediction Model toward Jeju District Hotels (제주지역 호텔기업 부실예측모형 평가)

  • Kim, Si-Joong
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.47-52
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - This current study will investigate the average financial ratio of top and failed five-star hotels in the Jeju area. A total of 14 financial ratio variables are utilized. This study aims to; first, assess financial ratio of the first-class hotels in Jeju to establishing variables, second, develop distress prediction model for the first-class hotels in Jeju district by using logit analysis and third, evaluate distress prediction capacity for the first-class hotels in Jeju district by using logit analysis. Research design, data, and methodology - The sample was collected from year 2015 and 14 financial ratios of 12 first-class hotels in Jeju district. The results from the samples were analyzed by t-test, and the independent variables were chosen. This was an empirical study where the distress prediction model was evaluated by logit analysis. This current research has focused on critically analyzing and differentiating between the top and failed hotels in the Jeju area by utilizing the 14 financial ratio variables. Results - The verification result of the accuracy estimated by logit analysis has shown to indicate that the distress prediction model's distress prediction capacity was 83.3%. In order to extract the factors that differentiated the top hotels in the Jeju area from the failed hotels among the 14 chosen, the analysis of t-black was utilized by independent variables. Logit analysis was also used in this study. As a result, it was observed that 5 variables were statistically significant and are included in the logit analysis for discernment of top and failed hotels in the Jeju area. Conclusions - The distress prediction press' prediction capability was compared in this research analysis. The distress prediction press prediction capability was shown to range from 75-85% by logit analysis from a previous study. In this current research, the study's prediction capacity was shown to be 83.33%. It was considered a high number and was found to belong to the range of the previous study's prediction capacity range. From a practical perspective, the capacity of the assessment of the distress prediction model in the top and failed hotels in the Jeju area was considered to be a prominent factor in applications of future hotel appraisal.

University Students' Economic Distress and Coping Behavior in Meal Management (대학생의 경제적 불안과 식생활 대처행동)

  • 서정희;홍순명
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2000
  • This research investigated the effect of socio-economic variables and economic distress variables on the university students' coping behavior in meal management. The data used in this research included 544 university students in Ulsan Areas. The independent explanatory power of socio-economic variables was larger than economic distress variables. But the explanatory power was increased in the regression analysis model that was included both the socio-economic variables and the economic distress variables. The influencing variables that effected the level of coping behavior in meal management were the amount of discretionary expenditure, gender, status of housing, employment distress and income distress.

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A Structural Model on the Moral Distress in Clinical Nurses (임상간호사의 도덕적 고뇌 구조모형 구축)

  • Lee, Eun Ja;Chae, Young Ran
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.194-204
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study was to build a path model geared toward explaining the relationships of influential variables for the moral distress of clinical nurses by analyzing literatures of earlier studies. Methods: Data were collected from four hospitals with 300 beds or more. The participants were 257 nurses with more than 1 year of clinical experience. The data collection period was from June 14 to October 24, 2017. The questionnaire included general and ethical education-related characteristics, personality type, moral dilemma experience, moral sensitivity, moral climate and moral distress. Results: The direct influencing factors of moral distress were the individual's experience of moral dilemma, moral sensitivity, and the moral climate of the organization. Factors that indirectly affected via moral sensitivity were personality type, experience in ethical education, and moral climate. The explanatory power was 40.3%. Conclusion: It is necessary to develop an intervention program that can reduce moral distress by considering the factors influencing the moral distress of clinical nurses. In addition, it is necessary to identify additional influencing factors of moral distress.

Evaluating Distress Prediction Models for Food Service Franchise Industry (외식프랜차이즈기업 부실예측모형 예측력 평가)

  • KIM, Si-Joong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was evaluated to compare the predictive power of distress prediction models by using discriminant analysis method and logit analysis method for food service franchise industry in Korea. Research design, data and methodology: Forty-six food service franchise industry with high sales volume in the 2017 were selected as the sample food service franchise industry for analysis. The fourteen financial ratios for analysis were calculated from the data in the 2017 statement of financial position and income statement of forty-six food service franchise industry in Korea. The fourteen financial ratios were used as sample data and analyzed by t-test. As a result seven statistically significant independent variables were chosen. The analysis method of the distress prediction model was performed by logit analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. Results: The difference between the average value of fourteen financial ratios of forty-six food service franchise industry was tested through t-test in order to extract variables that are classified as top-leveled and failure food service franchise industry among the financial ratios. As a result of the univariate test appears that the variables which differentiate the top-leveled food service franchise industry to failure food service industry are income to stockholders' equity, operating income to sales, current ratio, net income to assets, cash flows from operating activities, growth rate of operating income, and total assets turnover. The statistical significances of the seven financial ratio independent variables were also confirmed by logit analysis and discriminant analysis. Conclusions: The analysis results of the prediction accuracy of each distress prediction model in this study showed that the forecast accuracy of the prediction model by the discriminant analysis method was 84.8% and 89.1% by the logit analysis method, indicating that the logit analysis method has higher distress predictability than the discriminant analysis method. Comparing the previous distress prediction capability, which ranges from 75% to 85% by discriminant analysis and logit analysis, this study's prediction capacity, which is 84.8% in the discriminant analysis, and 89.1% in logit analysis, is found to belong to the range of previous study's prediction capacity range and is considered high number.

In Study on Investigate the Distress in Multi-Cultural Families with Hill's ABCX Model (ABCX모델에 근거한 다문화가족의 디스트레스(Distress) 연구)

  • Chang, Jin-Kyung;Jun, Jong-Mi;Shin, Yoo-Kyung
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.103-116
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    • 2009
  • This study aims to investigate the process of family distress to family crisis in multi-cultural families based on Hill's ABCX model. For this study, the qualitative study with depth interview was conducted with 8 multi-cultural families(e.g. husband, wife, child and elderly parent). The depth interview contents were marriage process, family relation or family interactions, social adaptation process, and social services needs. Results showed the followings: First, multi-cultural families had multiple distressors so that these distressors made multi-cultural families vulnerable to family crisis. Second, Hill's ABCX model explained the process of family distress to family crisis in the multi-cultural families in that they had few resources(both individual resources and family resources) and even worse they had negative cognitions about their own multi-cultural family systems. This situation made them difficult to solve their problems and to cope with their distressors. Third, major distressors in multi-cultural families were founded in this study. These were different cultural gap, communication difficulties, social discrimination to multi-cultural families, and lack of social support networks. Discussion will address suggestions about effective family policies for multi-cultural families in order to make them resilient to family crisis and help to well-adjusted in the korean society.

A Study on the Family Recognition and Distress of Dual-Earner Families (맞벌이 부부가족의 가족자원, 스트레스 인지수준 및 디스트레스에 관한 연구)

  • 고정자
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.97-116
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    • 1994
  • The purpose of the stud is to present an model of the distress process for dual-earner couples. For the data set 340 husbands and wives in dual-earner families living in Pusan were chosen. The questionnaire was composed of Family Stressor Scale Family Resources Scale, Distress Scale. The data were analyzed with the SPSS statistical pacakage using t-test the one-rather than husband. And cothestion, adaptability and the level of stress recognition are important factors affecting the level of physical and psychological distress directly.

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