• Mycobiology
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• v.50 no.5
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• pp.382-388
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• 2022

White mold (or Sclerotinia stem rot), caused by Sclerotinia species, is a major air, soil, or seed-transmitted disease affecting numerous crops and wild plants. Microscopic or culture-based methods currently available for their detection and identification are time-consuming, laborious, and often erroneous. Therefore, we developed a multiplex quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay for the discrimination, detection, and quantification of DNA collected from each of the three economically relevant Sclerotinia species, namely, S. sclerotiorum, S. minor, and S. nivalis. TaqMan primer/probe combinations specific for each Sclerotinia species were designed based on the gene sequences encoding aspartyl protease. High specificity and sensitivity of each probe were confirmed for sclerotium and soil samples, as well as pure cultures, using simplex and multiplex qPCRs. This multiplex assay could be helpful in detecting and quantifying specific species of Sclerotinia, and therefore, may be valuable for disease diagnosis, forecasting, and management.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.53 no.3
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• pp.158-163
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• 2020

Objectives: In the current early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, Bali needs to prepare to face the escalation of cases, with a particular focus on the readiness of healthcare services. We simulated the future trajectory of the epidemic under current conditions, projected the impact of policy interventions, and analyzed the implications for healthcare capacity. Methods: Our study was based on the first month of publicly accessible data on new confirmed daily cases. A susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 was employed to compare the current dynamics of the disease with those predicted under various scenarios. Results: The fitted model for the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Bali indicated an effective reproduction number of 1.4. Interventions have decreased the possible maximum number of cases from 71 125 on day 86 to 22 340 on day 119, and have prolonged the doubling time from about 9 days to 21 days. This corresponds to an approximately 30% reduction in transmissions from cases of mild infections. There will be 2780 available hospital beds, and at the peak (on day 132), the number of severe cases is estimated to be roughly 6105. Of these cases, 1831 will need intensive care unit (ICU) beds, whereas the number of currently available ICU beds is roughly 446. Conclusions: The healthcare system in Bali is in danger of collapse; thus, serious efforts are needed to improve COVID-19 interventions and to prepare the healthcare system in Bali to the greatest extent possible.

• Genomics & Informatics
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.11.1-11.8
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• 2021

For the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), predictive modeling, in the literature, uses broadly susceptible exposed infected recoverd (SEIR)/SIR, agent-based, curve-fitting models. Governments and legislative bodies rely on insights from prediction models to suggest new policies and to assess the effectiveness of enforced policies. Therefore, access to accurate outbreak prediction models is essential to obtain insights into the likely spread and consequences of infectious diseases. The objective of this study is to predict the future COVID-19 situation of Korea. Here, we employed 5 models for this analysis; SEIR, local linear regression (LLR), negative binomial (NB) regression, segment Poisson, deep-learning based long short-term memory models (LSTM) and tree based gradient boosting machine (GBM). After prediction, model performance comparison was evelauated using relative mean squared errors (RMSE) for two sets of train (January 20, 2020-December 31, 2020 and January 20, 2020-January 31, 2021) and testing data (January 1, 2021-February 28, 2021 and February 1, 2021-February 28, 2021) . Except for segmented Poisson model, the other models predicted a decline in the daily confirmed cases in the country for the coming future. RMSE values' comparison showed that LLR, GBM, SEIR, NB, and LSTM respectively, performed well in the forecasting of the pandemic situation of the country. A good understanding of the epidemic dynamics would greatly enhance the control and prevention of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. Therefore, with increasing daily confirmed cases since this year, these results could help in the pandemic response by informing decisions about planning, resource allocation, and decision concerning social distancing policies.

• Journal of radiological science and technology
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.353-359
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• 2016

This study were to evaluate risk factors of GB polpy in Busan and Gyeongnam area. This study was performed with patients by abdominal ultrasonography among the patients who came to the P hospital from January to May 2016. Among them, risk factors were analyzed on 399 people at the same time when abdominal ultrasonography and hematological test. The statistical analysis of risk factors related to the GB ployp was performed by independent t-test and chi-square test. In consider of difference verification result for calculations odds ratio about independent variables, multiple logistic regression analysis to conduct verify adequacy by calculating forecasting model from variable. As a result, GB polyp risk factors have relevance to male, HBsAg positive, triglyceride. GB polyp risk factors confirmed to male, HBsAg positive, triglyceride were calculated forecasting model and forecasting probability value. Forecasting probability sensitivity 61.0%, specificity 76.8%, ROC area under curve 0.735 showed, it confirmed validity of forecasting model. When analyzing the GB polyps morphologically, among the GB polyp types observed from abdominal ultrasonography, the hyperechoic and homogeneous pattern with neck was the largest as shown from 27.5% and two GB polyps were shown most from 38%, sizes were shown most by maximum diameter, 5 to 10mm from 53%. As a disease accompany with GB polyp showed mild fatty liver(23%), diffuse hepatopathy(21%).

• Journal of Digital Contents Society
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.417-424
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• 2015

The research of occupational injury for safety and health is a comparatively recent occurrence. As labor activities took place regarding to employee concerns in industrial uprising, human resources health was tried to enhanced as a labor safety subject. Noticing that traditional statistics approach has limitations in learning future forecasting and major factors causing occupational injuries in each industry, Korean Government initiated a quantitative systematic simulation model project to analyze how the annual injury rate has been dropped and stays in a level for recent years. From this motivation and the project, system dynamics models have been developed to explain the mechanisms for reducing annual injury rate, and the mechanisms quantitatively. The main cause effects for the reduction of annual injury rate were due to the government driven investment on safety facilities. In overall viewpoint the gain achievable from these efforts has been reached a saturated level. However, it could reduce the annual injury rate if you chose the industry and size carefully. The model for forecasting, major injury factors, safety budget and allocation are introduced and analyzed, and Analyzing occupational injury related factors can also reduce employee injury and disease related costs, including medical care, quit, and disability assistance costs.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.499 -508
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• 2024

In this paper, we investigate hierarchical time series forecasting that adhere to a hierarchical structure when deriving predicted values by analyzing segmented data as well as aggregated datasets. The occurrences of food poisoning by a specific pathogen are analyzed using zero-inflated Poisson regression models and negative binomial regression models. The occurrences of major, miscellaneous, and overall food poisoning are analyzed using Poisson regression models and negative binomial regression models. For hierarchical time series forecasting, the MinT estimation proposed by Wickramasuriya et al. (2019) is employed. Negative predicted values resulting from hierarchical adjustments are adjusted to zero, and weights are multiplied to the remaining lowest-level variables to satisfy the hierarchical structure. Empirical analysis revealed that there is little difference between hierarchical and non-hierarchical adjustments in predictions based on pathogens. However, hierarchical adjustments generally yield superior results for predictions concerning major, miscellaneous, and overall occurrences. Without hierarchical adjustment, instances may occur where the predicted frequencies of the lowest-level variables exceed that of major or miscellaneous occurrences. However, the proposed method enables the acquisition of predictions that adhere to the hierarchical structure.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.19-26
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• 2009

This study was undertaken to analyze the hygienic problems of group food services and to predict the outbreak patterns of future food-borne diseases. A delphi survey with 20 experts identified the main causes of food-borne outbreaks in group food services as improper hygienic management of raw food materials, washing of worker's hands, dividing the spaces and unsanitary retail storage. Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Escherichia coli (EPEC), non-typhoid Salmonella serotypes, Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli (ETEC), norovirus, and the hepatitis A virus all have potential to cause outbreaks of food-borne disease. We analyzed the daily food use and the possibility of food-borne outbreaks in school food services for fruits, milk, fish, pork, eggs, and meat as raw food materials, and bibimbab, soybean sprouts muchim, spinach namul, cucumber sengchae, jabchae, and pork bulgogi as prepared food items. Frozen (${\leq}\;-20^{\circ}C$) and refrigerated ($0{\sim}10^{\circ}C$) processed foods are popular items in group food services. Their storage, heating, and chemical sanitization methods are potential sources of food disease outbreaks. Our results can be applied to a well-organized hygiene control system and can be used to develop menus for preventing food-borne outbreaks.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.14 no.3 s.24
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• pp.111-131
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• 1975

The study has been carried out to investigate the occurrence, damage, characteristics of the pathogen, environmental conditions affecting the disease outbreak, varietal resistance, forecasting, and chemical control of bacterial leaf blight of rice in Korea since 1964. Bacterial leaf blight of rice became a major disease in Korea since 1960. A correlation was found between the annual increase of epidemics and increase of cultivation area of susceptible varieties, Jinheung, Keumnampung etc. Areal damage within the country showed that the more was at southern province, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam and western coast, and at flooded rice paddy. Yield reduction directly related with the amount of infection on upper leaves at heading stage. Fifty per cent of reduction resulted when the lesion area was more than 60 per cent. Less than 20 per cent of lesion area, however, was not affected so much on yield loss One hundred and six isolates collected from all over the country were classified as 8 strains by using 4 different bacteriophages in 1973. It was, however, only two in 1965. There were some specificities on varietal distributions among the strains such as that the Jinheung attacked mainly by strain A, B, C and I, those attack Kimmaze were A, B, H and I. Most strains were found from Tongil except D and E, whereas Akibare was only variety that attacked by strain E. Low temperature, high humidity, heavy rainfall and insutficient daylight favored the disease epidemics. Especially, typhoon and flooding at heading stage were critical factors. The earlier transplanting the more disease was resulted, and more nitrogen fertilizer application accerelated the diseased development in general. The resistance to the disease varied by growing stage of the sane plants. All of recommended varieties in Korea were susceptible to the disease except Norm No. 6 and Sirogane which moderately resistant. The pathogen, Xanthomonas oryzae, was detectable from extract of healthy seedlings that were grown in the field with an heavy infection previous year. The more bacteriophage in irigation water resulted the more disease outbreak, and the existence of more than 50 bacteriophages in 1ml. of irrigation water were necessary to initiate the disease out break. The curves representing occurrence of bacteriophages and disease outbreak were similar with 15 days interval. The survey of bacteriophage occurrence can be utilized in forecasting of the disease two weeks ahead of disease outbreak. Three applications of chemicals, Phenazin and Sangkel, in weekly intervals at the early satage of out-break depressed the symptom development, and increased yield by 20per cent. Proper period for the chemical application was just before the number of bacteriophage reaches 50 in 1ml. of irrigation water.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Laryngology, Phoniatrics and Logopedics
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.47-50
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• 2013

Background and Objectives:The purpose of this study is to find features in acoustics and to learn useful features of parameters in order to distinguish laryngeal diseases through many acoustic variables. Materials and Methods:The subjects of this study were 125-male patients who had been diagnosed with vocal nodule, vocal polyp, vocal cyst, Reinke's edema, leukoplakia. To research the features of each disease in acoustics, they are measured 34 parameters by using MDVP. Results:It is clear that in order to see a meaning result when distinguishing laryngeal diseases, $F_0$, $MF_0$, $T_0$, Fhi, Flo, PER variables are significant (p<.05). It means that variables related to fundamental frequency are important to anticipate which group will be diagnosed with Reinke's edema and leukoplakia. vAm had an effect on getting a significant result in terms of amplitude perturbation parameters, which is useful to distinguish between laryngeal polyp/cyst and other laryngeal disease (p<.05). ATRI made a significant result in related to tremor parameters, which is useful to distinguish between laryngeal polyp and other laryngeal disease (p<.05). Conclusion:$F_0$, $MF_0$, $T_0$, Fhi, Flo, PER, vAm, ATRI might be meaningful parameters distinguishing pathologic from benign laryngeal diseases. Especially, the vAm and ATRI are an important factor when forecasting which group would be diagnosed with vocal polyp.

• Research in Plant Disease
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.209-216
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• 2004

The circular leaf spot of persimmon is occurred almost every place where persimmon is cultivated, especially the disease outbreak severely in southern part of Korea. The disease reveals unusually long incubation period after pathogen invade into leaf tissue and no practical control measure is available once the symptom has appeared. Most of the farmers just follow the suggested spray schedules calculated on the basis of weather condition of ordinary years. Therefore the damages due to circular leaf spot greatly differ year after year. In this article, we tried to describe and summarized the investigation on the circular leaf spot pathogen, Mycosphaerella nawae, related to disease outbreak such as overwintering of pathogen, inoculum formation and spread, incubation period after infection, and secondary inoculum. With the summary of these results, we suggest the disease cycle of circular leaf spot of persimmon. The pathogen overwinters in diseased leaves as mycelial form or pseudoperithecial premodium. The pseudoperitheria become matured in spring as the temperature raise and forms asci and ascospores. The maturation of pseudoperithecia are closely related to the temperatures during March and early April. The ascospores completely mature in early May and the ascospores released when the pseudoperithecia absorbed enough moisture after rainfall. The release of ascospores are diverse greatly with the variation of maturity of pseudoperithecia. Generally the spore start to release from middle of May to early of July. Duration of ascospore release is depend on the weather condition of particular year, especially amount and number of precipitation. The ascospores produced from pseudoperithecia is known to the only inoculum for circular leaf spot disease. But according to the results obtained from our investigations, the conidia formed on the lesions which incited by natural infection. This conidia are infectious to persimmon leaves and formed identical symptom as natural infection. The time of producing secondary inoculum of circular leaf spot of persimmon is considered too late to develop new disease. Generally the importance of secondary inoculum is low but the conidia produced in early September are competent to develop new disease and new infection also significantly affect to harvest of persimmon. The importance of circular leaf spot disease is recognized well to farmers. The approaches to control of the disease should be initiated on the basis of the knowledges of inoculum dynamics and ecology of disease development. The forecasting system for circular leaf spot is need to be developed.