• Title/Summary/Keyword: disaster prediction

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Analysis of Prediction Results and Grid Size Dependence According to Changes in Fire Area (화원면적 변화에 따른 격자 크기 의존도 및 예측결과 분석)

  • Yun, Hong-Seok;Hwang, Cheol-Hong
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2019
  • In fire simulations for building fire safety evaluation, changes in the fire area and grid size can significantly influence the prediction results. Therefore, the effects of area changes of the fire source with identical maximum heat release rates on the prediction results of a compartment fire were investigated. The dependence of the prediction results on the grid size using the identical fire area was also examined. No significant changes were observed in the thermal and chemical characteristics of the fires with variable grid sizes, even though the fire area was changed when six or more grids were set based on the fire diameter. In addition, changes in the fire area caused significant differences in the prediction of major physical quantities associated with available safety egress time (ASET) within a compartment. However, the fire area changes did not considerably influence the overall fire characteristics outside the compartment after reaching a certain distance from the opening.

A Development of Prediction Model for Traffic Opening Time of Epoxy Asphalt Pavement Using Nonlinear Curve Fitting (비선형 커브피팅을 이용한 에폭시 아스팔트 포장의 교통개방 예측 모델 개발)

  • Jo, Shin Haeng;Kim, Nakseok
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.324-331
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    • 2013
  • Epoxy asphalt concrete is used to reduce dead load and to increase durability on long-span steel bridge overlay. The strength development properties of epoxy asphalt concrete are affected by time and temperature because epoxy asphalt is two-phase reactive materials. The strength development of epoxy asphalt concrete should be predicted precisely to decide traffic opening time. Based on this background in mind, the prediction model for traffic opening time for epoxy asphalt pavement was proposed in this research. The developed model using nonlinear curve fitting revealed R2 value of 0.943 while the R2 value of the existing model using chemical kinetics was 0.806. An improved precise prediction result is to be obtained when the prediction model uses accurate temperature data of pavement.

A study on Reliability Analysis for Prediction Technology of Water Content in the Ground using Hyperspectral Informations (초분광정보를 이용한 지반의 함수비 예측 기술의 신뢰성 분석 연구)

  • Lee, Kicheol;Ahn, Heechul;Park, Jeong-Jun;Cho, Jinwoo;You, Seung-Kyong;Hong, Gigwon
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.141-149
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    • 2021
  • In this study, an laboratory experiment was performed for prediction technology of water content in the ground using hyperspectral information. And the spectral reflectance with a specific wavelength band was obtained according to the fine and water content. Through it, the spectral information was normalized with the spectral index of the existing literature, and the relationship with the fine and water contents and the reliability of the prediction technology were analyzed. As a result of analysis, the spectral reflectance is decreased when the water and fine contents are increased under the high water contents. In addition, the reliability of prediction technology of water content was evaluated by examining 7 different spectral index calculation methods. Among them, DVI showed relatively high prediction reliability and was superior to other calculation methods in terms of sensitivity.

Development of Core Module and Web System for a Visualization Platform for the 3D GIS Service of Disaster Information using Unity (재난정보 3차원 GIS 서비스를 위한 Unity 기반 시각화 플랫폼 핵심모듈 개발 및 웹 시스템 구축)

  • Gang, Su Myung;Ryu, Dong Ha;Kim, Tae Su;Park, Hyeon Cheol;Kim, Jin Man;Choung, Yun Jae
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.520-532
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    • 2017
  • Large-scale natural disasters such as typhoon and localized torrential downpour cause widespread human and property damages. Recently, management systems using GIS are being developed to manage such disasters from various angles. Integrated disaster management encompasses diverse areas such as prediction through the computation of disaster information and field support for response. The development of disaster information systems must also consider the installation of various computation modules. Furthermore, GIS is generally included for realistic description of the field situation and for spatial operations. This study aims to develop the core module of a visualization platform for the 3D GIS services of integrated disaster information using Unity engine This system will enable integrated disaster management from various angles, encompassing disaster prevention experts, field support personnel, and citizens.

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Grid-Based Flood Risk Mapping - Focusing on the Case of Typhoon Chaba in 2016 - (격자 기반 침수위험지도 작성을 위한 기계학습 모델별 성능 비교 연구 - 2016 태풍 차바 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Jihye Han;Changjae Kwak;Kuyoon Kim;Miran Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_2
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    • pp.771-783
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to compare the performance of each machine learning model for preparing a grid-based disaster risk map related to flooding in Jung-gu, Ulsan, for Typhoon Chaba which occurred in 2016. Dynamic data such as rainfall and river height, and static data such as building, population, and land cover data were used to conduct a risk analysis of flooding disasters. The data were constructed as 10 m-sized grid data based on the national point number, and a sample dataset was constructed using the risk value calculated for each grid as a dependent variable and the value of five influencing factors as an independent variable. The total number of sample datasets is 15,910, and the training, verification, and test datasets are randomly extracted at a 6:2:2 ratio to build a machine-learning model. Machine learning used random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) techniques, and prediction accuracy by the model was found to be excellent in the order of SVM (91.05%), RF (83.08%), and KNN (76.52%). As a result of deriving the priority of influencing factors through the RF model, it was confirmed that rainfall and river water levels greatly influenced the risk.

A Study on the Development of GIS-based Complex Simulation Prototype for Reducing the Damage of Chemical Accidents (화학사고 피해저감을 위한 GIS 연계 복합시뮬레이션 프로토타입 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Eun-Byul;Oh, Joo-Yeon;Lee, Tae Wook;Oh, Won Kyu;Kim, Hyun-Joo;Lim, Dong-yun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_4
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    • pp.1255-1266
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    • 2020
  • In this study, a complex simulation prototype was developed for rapid and accurate prediction of chemical dispersion range in order to reduce human casualties caused by chemical accidents. Complex simulation considered the leakage momentum during the near-field dispersion to take into account the leakage characteristics of the chemical. In the far-distance dispersion process, the wind distribution of the existing model, which was presented uniformly, was improved using weather and topographical information around the accident site, to realize a wind field similar to the actual one. Finally, the damage range was more precise than the existing model in line with the improved near- and far-distance dispersion process. Based on the results of damage range prediction of the complex simulation, it is expected that it will be highly utilized as a system to support policy decision-making such as evacuation and return of residents after a chemical accident.

Application of rock mass index in the prediction of mine water inrush and grouting quantity

  • Zhao, Jinhai;Liu, Qi;Jiang, Changbao;Defeng, Wang
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.503-515
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    • 2022
  • The permeability coefficient is an essential parameter for the study of seepage flow in fractured rock mass. This paper discusses the feasibility and application value of using readily available RQD (rock quality index) data to estimate mine water inflow and grouting quantity. Firstly, the influence of different fracture frequencies on permeability in a unit area was explored by combining numerical simulation and experiment, and the relationship between fracture frequencies and pressure and flow velocity at the monitoring point in fractured rock mass was obtained. Then, the stochastic function generation program was used to establish the flow analysis model in fractured rock mass to explore the relationship between flow velocity, pressure and analyze the universal law between fracture frequency and permeability. The concepts of fracture width and connectivity are introduced to modify the permeability calculation formula and grouting formula. Finally, based on the on-site grouting water control example, the rock mass quality index is used to estimate the mine water inflow and the grouting quantity. The results show that it is feasible to estimate the fracture frequency and then calculate the permeability coefficient by RQD. The relationship between fracture frequency and RQD is in accordance with exponential function, and the relationship between structure surface frequency and permeability is also in accordance with exponential function. The calculation results are in good agreement with the field monitoring results, which verifies the rationality of the calculation method. The relationship between the rock mass RQD index and the rock mass permeability established in this paper can be used to invert the mechanical parameters of the rock mass or to judge the permeability and safety of the rock mass by using the mechanical parameters of the rock mass, which is of great significance to the prediction of mine water inflow and the safety evaluation of water inrush disaster management.

Sensitivity Analysis in the Prediction of Coastal Erosion due to Storm Events: case study-Ilsan beach (태풍 기인 연안침식 예측의 불확실성 분석: 사례연구-일산해변)

  • Son, Donghwi;Yoo, Jeseon;Shin, Hyunhwa
    • Journal of Coastal Disaster Prevention
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2019
  • In coastal morphological modelling, there are a number of input factors: wave height, water depth, sand particle size, bed friction coefficients, coastal structures and so forth. Measurements or estimates of these input data may include uncertainties due to errors by the measurement or hind-casting methods. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the uncertainty of each input data and the range of the uncertainty during the evaluation of numerical results. In this study, three uncertainty factors are considered with regard to the prediction of coastal erosion in Ilsan beach located in Ilsan-dong, Ulsan metropolitan city. Those are wave diffraction effect of XBeach model, wave input scenario and the specification of the coastal structure. For this purpose, the values of mean wave direction, significant wave height and the height of the submerged breakwater were adjusted respectively and the followed numerical results of morphological changes are analyzed. There were erosion dominant patterns as the wave direction is perpendicular to Ilsan beach, the higher significant wave height, and the lower height of the submerged breakwater. Furthermore, the rate of uncertainty impacts among mean wave direction, significant wave height and the height of the submerged breakwater are compared. In the study area, the uncertainty influence by the wave input scenario was the largest, followed by the height of the submerged breakwater and the mean wave direction.

A Study on the Dataset Structure of Digital Twin for Disaster and Safety Management (재난안전관리를 위한 디지털 트윈 데이터셋 구조 연구)

  • Ki-Sook Chung;Woo-Sug Jung
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.89-95
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    • 2023
  • The underground utility tunnel is an urban infrastructure that accommodates and manages important facilities such as water and sewage, electricity, and communication in the city, and is a national facility that needs to be protected from disasters such as fire, earthquake, and flooding. In establishing a disaster safety life cycle management system such as prediction, prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, a disaster safety management platform for underground utility tunnel is being developed by utilizing digital twin technology in which advanced ICT technology and data are converged. In this paper, the maturity model for the disaster safety digital twin was reviewed, and the datasets necessary for implementing the digital twin at each stage were defined.

Extraction of Disaster link Matrix Considering Flood Damage of Low-rise Structures due to Typhoon Effects (태풍 영향으로 인한 저층 시설물의 침수피해를 고려한 재난 연계 매트릭스 도출)

  • Lee, Byung-Hoon;Lee, Byung-Jin;Oh, Seung-Hee;Jung, Woo-Sug;Kim, Kyung-Seok
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.209-214
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we recognize the damage caused by a disaster to a facility in the event of a large-scale disaster and present the possible disasters in the form of a matrix. The typhoon was selected as a major disaster and covered mainly the flood damage, a possible damage caused by the typhoon. Flood damage is mainly caused by flooding, and damage is determined by flooding and flow rate, and the results of applying this to low-rise facilities are derived. In addition, the results were derived by applying a method of classification of disaster types in a matrix format to make it easy to see at a glance the connection between disasters caused by damage to a facility. Continuing research in the form presented in this paper will help us identify additional disasters as an occurrence of a disaster.