• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.65-73
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• 2016

We estimated the averaged maximum incidences of bacterial canker at suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s and 2050s using D-PSA-K model with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Though there was a little difference between the estimation using RCP4.5 and that using RCP8.5, the estimated maximum disease incidences were more than 75% at all the suitable sites in Korea except for some southern coastal areas and Jeju island under the assumption that there are a plenty of infections to cause the symptoms. We also analyzed the intermediate and final outputs of D-PSA-K model to find out the trends on the change in disease incidence affected by climate change. Whereas increase of damage to kiwifruit canes in a non-frozen environment caused by bacterial canker was estimated at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios, rate of necrosis increase caused by the bacterial canker pathogen in a frozen environment during the last overwintering season was predicted to be reduced at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios. Directions of change in estimated maximum incidence varied with sites and scenarios. Whereas the maximum disease incidence at 3.14% of suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s under RCP4.5 scenario was estimated to increase by 10% or more in 2050s, the maximum disease incidence at 25.41% of the suitable sites under RCP8.5 scenario was estimated so.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.107-117
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• 2023

It must be possible to assess how combat actions taking place in cyberspace affect the military's major mission systems and weapon systems. In order to analyze the mission impact caused by a cyber attack through cyber M&S, the target mission system and cyber warfare elements must be built as a model and a scenario for simulation must be authored. Many studies related to mission impact analysis due to cyber warfare have been conducted focusing on the United States, and existing studies have authored separate scenarios for physical battlefields and cyber battlefields. It is necessary to build a simulation environment that combines a physical battlefield model and a cyber battlefield model, and be able to integrate and author mission scenarios and cyber attack/defense scenarios. In addition, the physical battlefield and cyber battlefield are different work areas, so authoring two types of scenarios for simulation is very complicated and time-consuming. In this paper, we propose a method of using mission system information to prepare the data needed for scenario authoring in advance and using the pre-worked data to author an integrated scenario. The proposed method is being developed by reflecting it in the design of the scenario authoring tool, and an integrated scenario authoring in the field of counter-fire warfare is being performed to prove the proposed method. In the future, by using a scenario authoring tool that reflects the proposed method, it will be possible to easily author an integrated scenario for mission impact analysis in a short period of time.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.251-281
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• 2015

This paper examines the perceptions of sustainability, which is conceptualised as cross-generational social preferences, on the formation of international environmental agreements (IEAs) in a two-stage game in two periods. There are two scenarios are considered: myopic and sustainable development scenarios. The myopic scenario assumes the decision makers only concern the present welfare. Whilst the scenario of sustainable development has two characters: cross-generational fairness and altruism. When both are taken into account, a coalition will be expanded. The numerical example indicates that the marginal cost of the total emissions is the crucial factor for the formation of IEAs. Only when the marginal cost is low, a sustainable system can be succeeded. While, the technological advancement may lead to a more efficient production per unit of emissions, it also encourages countries to emit more in total and have a lower level of welfare. The results confirm the importance of sustainability to IEAs. The lesson learnt from this study is: when decision makers are myopic, the system is unsustainable even if an IEA is formed. Only when the perception of sustainability is considered, the system could be sustainable. Regardless of the existence of IEAs, international environmental conventions shall not neglect the fundamental goal to pursue sustainable development.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.161-178
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• 2008

Development and realization of ubiquitous services in physical space is now in progress to develop ubiquitous smart space (USS). As the development methodologies for USS, scenario development is performed before requirement analysis and design, or vice versa. However, even though lots of redundant elements could be found between scenarios and requirement analysis results, a sort of structural approaches to join them together has been still very rare. Hence, the aim of this paper is to propose a system which generates ubiquitous service senarios and system analysis specifications according to a novel integration methodology. To do so, scenario and requirement analysis are integrated in a structured manner.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.771-781
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to identify major drivers of Myanmar's long-term economic growth and draw implications to implement development policies. This study investigated Myanmar, as the country is the most recently opened economy in Southeast Asia. This study conducted simulation analysis based on scenarios by applying World Bank's Long-Term Growth Model, Penn World Table 9.1, and World Development Indicator data. This study makes extensive use of LTGM and the LTGM-TFP extension to improve the validity of models for data calibration. This study confirms the validity of the model with data calibration and specifies scenarios for simulation analyses by setting the growth trajectory of Vietnam due to common geographical, political, and economic conditions. Main findings include that Myanmar's economic growth rate will continue to fall below 3% in 2040 without proper improvement of growth drivers. The results of this study also provide that total factor productivity growth and female labor participation are key factors for Myanmar's long-term economic growth. This study advises policymakers in Myanmar to strengthen human capital, which is crucial for total factor productivity growth in Myanmar's context and directly affects economic growth. Further, labor market policies to promote female labor participation is important to sustain economic growth.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 2001.05a
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• pp.360.2-360
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• 2001

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2006.05b
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• pp.11-20
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• 2006

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.110-117
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• 2018

This study aims to overcome the problems of existing fire fighting drills and build a practical and effective fire fighting drill system to enhance emergency response capabilities. The unexpected scenarios fire fighting drill is to conduct drills with no scenarios and draw conclusions with quantified outcomes in real time, which provides the object evaluation system. The unexpected scenarios fire fighting drill is based on the IoT sensor-based drill evaluation system to suit individual requirement of drilling spots. This study also includes drill field test conducted to examine the applicability of the evaluation system for quantified outcomes. It is considered that the evaluation system of this paper will contribute to systematization and quantification of fire fighting drill, raise trainees' safety consciousness, and ultimately increase the actual fire fighting response capabilities.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.623-634
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• 2000

This study describes results of numerical simulations on river flow response due to global warming. Forecasts of changes in climatic conditions are required to estimate the hydrologic effects of increasing trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere. However, reliable forecasts of regional climate change are unavailable. In there absence, various approaches to the development of scenarios of future climatic conditions are used. The approach in this study is to prescribe climatic changes for a river basin in a simplified manner. As a rule, such scenarios specify air temperature increases from $0^{\circ}C\;to\;4.0^{\circ}C$ and precipitation change (increase or decrease) in the range of 0% to 15%. On the basis of acceptable supposition of warming scenarios. future daily streamflow is simulated using rainfall-runoff model in the Andong Dam basin. The numerical experiments have quantitatively revealed the change of discharge at 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2050 for each warming scenarios and compared it with the results for a non-warmmg scenano.cenano.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.57-78
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• 2006

Now post 2012 greenhouse gas reduction commitment being discussed, studies about long-term GHG reduction scenarios toward 2050 have actively been worked separately from 5 years short-term approach. In this paper, background, temperature target, $CO_2$ concentration target, national emission target, and approach of long-term reduction scenarios toward 2050 particularly in European countries such as UK, Germany, France, Netherlands et al. are reviewed. After comparing GDP and emission indices between Developed (European) countries and Korea, some implications of long-term GHG reduction scenarios are deduced. Acting early owing to uncertainty in climate change impact and technology development rather than delaying reduction activity owing to scientific uncertainty in climate change is needed. Providing our society's vision of climate change and government's explicit direction through long-term GHG reduction target setting toward 2050 and economic units' preparing for those are needed.