• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.781-805
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• 2015

The National Welfare Pension Act of 1973 and the National Pension Act of 1986 were legislated for an anticipative response to future population ageing. But the enforcement of these acts gained momentum as they became effective tools to realize the present potential demographic bonus. This article investigates the history related to the enactment of these two acts, focusing on these acts' role in raising funds managed by the government (National Investment Fund and National Housing Fund). This article shows the historical origin of full-dress debates on the sustainability of the National Pension Fund.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.35-77
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• 2023

This study aims to solve the entangled loop between demographic transition (DT) and economic growth by analyzing cross-country data. We undertake a national-level group analysis to verify the compressed transition of demographic variables over time. Assuming that the LA (latecomer advantage) on DT over time exists, we verify that the DT of the latecomer is compressed by providing a formal proof of LA on DT over income. As a DT has the double-kinked functions of income, we check them in multiple aspects: early maturation, leftward threshold, and steeper descent under a contour map and econometric methods. We find that the developing countries (the latecomer) have speedy DT (CDT, compressed DT) as well as speedy income such that DT of the latecomers starts at lower levels of income, lasts for a shorter period, and finishes at the earlier stage of economic development compared to that of developed countries (the early mover). To check the balance of DT, we classify countries into four groups of DT---balanced, slow, unilateral, and rapid transition countries. We identify that the main causes of rapid transition are due to the strong family planning programs of the government. Finally, we check the effect of latecomer's CDT on economic growth inversely: we undertake the simulation of the CDT effect on economic growth and the aging process for the latecomer. A worrying result is that the CDT of the latecomer shows a sharp upturn of the working-age population, followed by a sharp downturn in a short period. Compared to early-mover countries, the latecomer countries cannot buy more time to accommodate the workable population for the period of demographic bonus and prepare their aging societies for demographic onus. Thus, we conclude that CDT is not necessarily advantageous to developing countries. These outcomes of the latecomer's CDT can be re-interpreted as follows. Developing countries need power sources to pump up economic development, such as the following production factors: labor, physical and financial capital, and economic systems. As for labor, the properties of early maturation and leftward thresholds on DTs of the latecomer mean that demographic movement occurs at an unusually early stage of economic development; this is similar to a plane that leaks fuel before or just before take-off, with the result that it no longer flies higher or farther. What is worse, the property of steeper descent represents the falling speed of a plane so that it cannot be sustained at higher levels, and then plummets to all-time lows.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.105-128
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• 2008

City of Gyeongju's referendum finally offered the long-waited low-level radioactive waste disposal site in November 2005. Gyeongju's positive decision was due to the various economic rewards and incentives the national government promised to the city. 300 billion won for an accepting bonus, the location of the headquarter building of the Korean Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., and the accelerator research center and 3.25 trillion won for supporting regional development program implementation. All of the above will affect the city's infrastructure and the citizens' economic and social lives. Population, land use, economic structure, SOC and quality of life will be affected. Some will be very positive, and some will be negative. This research project will see the future of the city and forecast the demographic, economic, physical and environmental changes of the city via computer simulation's system dynamics technique. This kind of simulation will help City of Gyeongju's what to prepare for the future. The population forecasting of the year 2046 will be 662,424 with the waste disposal site, and 327,274 without the waste disposal site in Gyeongju. The waste disposal site and regional supporting program will increase 184,246 Jobs more with 1,605 agriculture and fishery, 5,369 manufacturing shops and 27,577 shops. The population increase will bring 96,726 more houses constructed in the city. Land use will also be affected. More land will be developed. And road, water plant and waste water plant will be expanded as much. The city's financial structure will be expanded, due to the increased revenues from the waste disposal site, and property tax revenues from the middle-class employees of the company, and the high-powered scientists and technologists from the accelerator research center. All in all, the future of the city will be brighter after operating the nuclear waste disposal site inside the city.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.119-146
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• 2006

City of Gyeongju's referendum finally offered the long-waited low-level radioactive waste disposal site in November 2005. Gyeongju's positive decision was due to the various economic rewards and incentives the national government promised to the city. 300 million won for an accepting bonus, 8.5 billion won, annual revenue fro the entry quantity of waste into the city's disposal site, the location of the headquarter building of the Korean Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., and the accelerator research center. All of the above will affect the city's infrastructure and the citizens' economic and cultural lives. Population, land use, economic structure, environment and quality of life will be affected. Some will be very positive, and some will be positive. This research project will see the future of the city and forecast the demographic, economic, physical and environmental changes of the city via computer simulation's system dynamics technique. This kind of simulation will help City of Gyeongju's what to prepare for the future. The population forecasting of the year 2026 will be 289,069 with the waste disposal site, and 279,131 without the waste disposal site in Gyeongju. The waste disposal site and the relocation of the company headquarters and location of the accelerator research center will attract 9,938 individuals more with 511 manufacturing shops and 1944 service jobs. The population increase will bring 3,550 more houses constructed in the city. Land use will also be affected. More land will be developed. However, mad, water plant and waste water plant will not be expanded as much. The city's financial structure will be expanded, due to the increased revenues from the waste disposal site, and property tax revenues from the middle-class employees of the company, and the high-powered scientists and technologists from the accelerator research center. All in an, the future of the city will be brighter after operating the nuclear waste disposal site inside the city.