• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.267-273
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• 2011

Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment in transport infrastructure has been active. However investment in transport infrastructure has more risks than others' due to uncertainty both in traffic volume and in construction cost. In the current appraisal procedure of deciding transportation infrastructure investment, instead of risk management, the sensitivity analysis considering only the changes of benefit, cost and social discount rate which are main factor affecting economic feasibility is carried out. Therefore the uncertainty of various factors affecting demand, cost and benefit are not considered in feasibility study. In this study the problems in current investment appraisal system were reviewed. Using Delphi technique the major factors which have high uncertainty in feasibility study were surveyed and then improvement plan was suggested in the respective of classic 4 step demand forecasting method. The range estimation technique was also mentioned to deal with the uncertainty of the future.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.13-23
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• 2014

Background: A need arises to efficiently control health expenditure for medical aid due to a sharp increase in medical aid expenditure. This study experimently analyzes the impact of physician behavior on medical use for medical aid beneficiaries using supplier induced demand (SID) theory. Methods: This study looks into analyze SID effect using expenditure factor analysis of medical aid for the years between 2003 and 2010 in comparison with health insurance. Moreover, this study analyzes the existence and scale of SID using econometrics modeling with panel data on 16 cities and provinces's health expenditure data for medical aid from 2003 1/4 to 2010 4/4. Results: This study finds that the growth rate of visit days per capita and treatment amount per visit days for medical aid is higher than health insurance. Furthermore, the result of econometrics modeling analysis shows the existence of SID in general hospital, hospital, clinic, oriental clinic. Conclusion: In order to efficiently control expenditure for medical aid, it is required to reinforce macro polices such as the introduction of 'target management' and micro policies such as the strengthen of management on medical institutes in the perspective of suppliers as well as regulations of demanders.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.69-73
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• 1978

This paper deals with the problem of determining the optimal inventory-transportation policy of the idealistically simple inventory-transportation system with the following assumptions: (1) The system consists of a single central warehouse and a single local warehouse, (2) The planning horizon is finite, (3) Demand rate is fixed costant, and so forth. Developed is the algorithm by which to identify the optimal inventory policy which minimizes the total cost incurred to the system over the given finite planning horizon. A sample numerical example is presented along with a discussion of the possible applications of the approach used n the algorithm.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.21 no.4_spc
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• pp.431-447
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• 2014

Demand of spectrum resource is tremendously increasing and this trend will continue as more IT services such as cloud computing, smart devices, Internet of Things are provided through wireless network. Recent development of spectrum sharing technology has drawn attention to spectrum policy makers as a promising way to overcome the expected spectrum shortage problem. However, technology-based solution to spectrum shortage problem may not be sustainable since the solution affect only one aspect of spectrum sharing ecosystem. To understand the whole picture of spectrum shortage problem, policies to vitalize spectrum sharing ecosystem were proposed based on the analysis of System Dynamics causal map in the previous study. This study compares and analyzes the effect of those proposed vitalization policies by using System Dynamics simulation. Among seven alternative policies, combined application of demand acceleration policy and technology development policy was found to be more effective for better utilization of spectrum. The effect of demand acceleration policy was offset when other policies are applied together except supply acceleration policy which shows better spectrum sharing.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.50-62
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• 2017

As the use of private cars increases along with the technological advancement in the automobile industries and their capabilities to supply, a wide range of issues are followed including the increase in traffic congestion costs, pavement damages and more. In spite of consistent effort to resolve such urban traffic problems, the modal share rate of private cars continuously increases, thus it is becoming more important to explore the ways to enable drivers to take reasonable measures, in self-motivated manner, by taking part of the transportation demand management policy rather than to rely on the strict enforcement of control policy. Considering that the urban transportation infrastructures are in much better shape than before, it is necessary to implement Mobility Management (MM) that induces reasonable usage of private cars by promoting the change in one's consciousness and behavior through communication. Hence, the research studies the factors that influence the mobility through the survey targeting the citizens of Busan on their awareness on the former transportation demand management policy, to explore the ways to motivate the citizens' involvement in reducing the use of private cars as a measure of Mobility Management.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.30 no.12
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• pp.1225-1230
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• 2008

A new approach based on the Seasonal Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis, was presented in this paper, in order to estimate effect of water quality management policy in Kyoungan Stream which is one of major tributaries into the Lake Paldang. The estimation was undertaken by comparing water quality trend slopes before and after implementation of the policy. The monthly water quality data of Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) measured from 1992 to 2005, were analyzed to determine the Kendall slopes before and after the Han River special policy implemented at 1998. The results indicated that the 1998 special policy would be effective in water quality improvement not at upstream but at downstream. This result agrees well with the previous water quality studies at Kyoungan stream. It was suggested that the presented approach could be an useful tool to estimate effect of a water quality management policy.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.81-96
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• 2017

Forecasting long-term mobile service demand is inevitable to establish an effective frequency management policy despite the lack of reliability of forecast results. The statistical forecasting method has limitations in analyzing how the forecasting result changes when the scenario for various drivers such as consumer usage pattern or market structure for mobile communication service is changed. In this study, we propose a dynamic model of the mobile communication service market using system dynamics technique and forecast the future demand for long-term mobile communication subscriber based on the dynamic model, and also experiment on the change pattern of subscriber demand under various scenarios.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.145-157
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• 2005

There are a lot of raw materials, work-in-processes and finished goods in manufacturing industry. Here, the less stock of materials and work-in-processes manufacturing industry has, the worse the rate of the production is. Inversely, the more manufacturing industry has, the more expensive the cost to support them is. Thus, it is important for us to balance them efficiently. In general, inventory problems are to decide appropriate times to produce goods and to determine appropriate quantities of goods. Therefore, inventory problems require as more useful information as possible. For example, there are demand, lead time, ordering point and so on. In this paper, we deal with an optimal ordering policy on both way substitutable two-commodity inventory control system. That is, there is a problem of how to allocate the produced two kinds of goods in a factory to m areas so as to minimize the total expected inventory cost. The demand of each area is probabilistic, and we adopt the exponential distribution as a probability density function of demand. Moreover, we provide numerical examples of the problem.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.286-306
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• 2011

Based on the announcement by the National Competitiveness Council in 2008, this study analyzed the direction of the changing policy in Seoul Metropolitan Area promoted by the current government and to inquire into such the effect, research was done to study the changes in space demand by companies which respond sensitively to changes in regulation in Seoul Metropolitan Area. In addition, the effect of Seoul Metropolitan Area policy on company location is explored while company location changes and changes in direction of space demand due to easing of regulation in Seoul Metropolitan Area by the current government are examined. Research methods utilized empirical analysis and survey analysis. Empirical analysis utilized statistical data since 1980's. For survey analysis, the effect of changing policy in Seoul Metropolitan Area, which is an exogenous shock, on decision making of the enterprise is considered to derive the direction of demand for company manufacturing lots. The results of the study showed that decision for company location or factory size has been affected greatly by Seoul Metropolitan Area policy and domain regulation and institution to restrict permission area of a manufacturing building from the law of improvement plan of the Metropolitan area were the biggest regulatory policies. Due to easing of regulation in Seoul Metropolitan Area by the current government, the demand for manufacturing lot is expected to increase. In particular, the demand for manufacturing lot is expected to increase centered around Seoul Metropolitan Area and Chungcheong province while demand is expected to decrease in Gangwon province. The reason is because company preference is high for the Seoul Metropolitan Area which has the best transportation/logistics and market conditions in Korea. But in the case of Southeast region and Daegyung region that form exclusive economic zones, changing policy in Seoul Metropolitan Area has little impact. In the case of Seoul Metropolitan Area, demand increase does not occur in the entire area but instead, demand is expected to increase in growth management zones.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.190-194
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• 2007

In most countries, mobile subscribers are already experiencing 3G-like services. At the moment of launching 3G services, lots of studies showed estimates of the number of subscribers for 3G services, using long-term demand curves, econometric methods or survey methodologies. Those studies mainly focused on the potential number of subscribers and the point of rapid growth rather than precise estimates for the services. Even though we've already experienced parts of 3G services, full length of 3G services are expecting in near future. Therefore, now we need to have more accurate estimates for 3G services. While we thought that 3G services were moved from 2G, in real place 3G services are being evolved from 2G services. In the process of evolving, regulators' policy affects service demand and diffusion significantly. For the more accurate estimates, we need to consider policy issues which influence service diffusion practically in real place. This study aims to present a model which shows better estimates for 3G services with consideration on policy issues, such as numbering issues, price regulation, and competition policy. The consideration can provide more accurate estimates for 3G services with service providers. The methodology could help academicians In forecasting of similar telecommunications services as well.