• Title/Summary/Keyword: demand curve

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Econometric Study on Forecasting Demand Response in Smart Grid (스마트그리드 수요반응 추정을 위한 계량경제학적 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Dong Joo;Park, Sunju
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.133-142
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    • 2012
  • Cournot model is one of representative models among many game theoretic approaches available for analyzing competitive market models. Recent years have witnessed various kinds of attempts to model competitive electricity markets using the Cournot model. Cournot model is appropriate for oligopoly market which is one characteristic of electric power industry requiring huge amount of capital investment. When we use Cournot model for the application to electricity market, it is prerequisite to assume the downward sloping demand curve in the right direction. Generators in oligopoly market could try to maximize their profit by exercising the market power like physical or economic withholding. However advanced electricity markets also have demand side bidding which makes it possible for the demand to respond to the high market price by reducing their consumption. Considering this kind of demand reaction, Generators couldn't abuse their market power. Instead, they try to find out an equilibrium point which is optimal for both sides, generators and demand. This paper suggest a quantitative analysis between market variables based on econometrics for estimating demand responses in smart grid environment.

Marketing Strategies in the Film Industry: Investment Decision Game Model (영화산업에서의 마케팅 전략 : 투자 결정 게임 모형을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.10
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    • pp.109-114
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The movie market has the characteristics of being a perfectly competitive market as well as a pure monopolistic market at the same time. This is because there are competitors in the industry but prices, although not fixed, have not changed a lot. Price competition may not have spread, but the competition is focused on artistic value, and the degree of box office success is most important. The artistic value is determined in the course of the production process. However, the degree of box office success is dependent upon the marketing manager. The marketing strategy represents the difference in the standard or quality of the movie. Inherently, the marketing manager adopts the entertainment strategy based on the quality of the foundation of the completed movie. At this time, the marketing manager knows the pertinent information (high quality/low quality) regarding the movie. This research study tries to reveal what should be the reasonable movie marketing expense, dependent on the quality of the movie. Research design, data, and methodology - Using a game scenario with different market players, the goal of the research analysis is to find out the following. First, the marketing expense is determined to maximize the profits after film production. Second, after the production costs are already committed, the manufacturer gets to choose the marketing level. At this time, there will be a profit maximization point, considering the competition. The premise of the research is as follows: if it is a good movie of quality, positive word of mouth increasing the audience continuously slows down the speed of the demand curve. If the movie quality is bad, the negative word of mouth decreasing the audience gradually hastens the speed of the demand curve. On the marketing side, when the manufacturer invests heavily in the marketing expense of the movie, consumer expectations increase to drive up the audience numbers. On the other hand, it is difficult to improve the profits excessively. When the manufacturer invests in marketing a little bit, the marketing expense is only relatively committed, therefore a lot of demand cannot be gained. Results - If a fixed market share is in a competitive situation, a low quality manufacturer expends relatively more marketing expense. If the situation assumes two manufacturers spend the same for the cost of production, the high quality manufacturer takes more profit. If the manufacturer expends less marketing budget to save costs, the optimum profit cannot be achieved since the other party (opponent) grabs the initial market share. Conclusions - In conclusion, investment is essential for market share to increase. We must refrain from a zero-sum game and have models where the game participants pursue the creative profits together. In the current film industry, there is the dominating logic of winner and loser but we have to create a film industry environment where the participants can be altogether satisfied and live together.

Applications of Innovation Adoption and Diffusion Theory to Demand Estimation for Communications and Media Converging (DMB) Services (혁신채택 및 확산이론의 통신방송융합(위성DMB) 서비스 수요추정 응용)

  • Sawng Yeong-Wha;Han Hyun-Soo
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.179-197
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    • 2005
  • This study examines market acceptance for DMB service, one of the touted new business models in Korea's next-generation mobile communications service market, using adoption end diffusion of innovation as the theoretical framework. Market acceptance for DMB service was assessed by predicting the demand for the service using the Bass model, and the demand variability over time was then analyzed by integrating the innovation adoption model proposed by Rogers (2003). In our estimation of the Bass model, we derived the coefficient of innovation and coefficient of imitation, using actual diffusion data from the mobile telephone service market. The maximum number of subscribers was estimated based on the result of a survey on satellite DMB service. Furthermore, to test the difference in diffusion pattern between mobile phone service and satellite DMB service, we reorganized the demand data along the diffusion timeline according to Rogers' innovation adoption model, using the responses by survey subjects concerning their respective projected time of adoption. The comparison of the two demand prediction models revealed that diffusion for both took place forming a classical S-curve. Concerning variability in demand for DMB service, our findings, much in agreement with Rogers' view, indicated that demand was highly variable over time and depending on the adopter group. In distinguishing adopters into different groups by time of adoption of innovation, we found that income and lifestyle (opinion leadership, novelty seeking tendency and independent decision-making) were variables with measurable impact. Among the managerial variables, price of reception device, contents type, subscription fees were the variables resulting in statistically significant differences. This study, as an attempt to measure the market acceptance for satellite DMB service, a leading next-generation mobile communications service product, stands out from related studies in that it estimates the nature and level of acceptance for specific customer categories, using theories of innovation adoption and diffusion and based on the result of a survey conducted through one-to-one interviews. The authors of this paper believe that the theoretical framework elaborated in this study and its findings can be fruitfully reused in future attempts to predict demand for new mobile communications service products.

Economic Valuation of the Municipal Water: Residential and Non-residential Uses (전국 생활용수의 경제적 가치 평가: 가정용수 대 비가정용수)

  • Ku, Se-Ju;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.11
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    • pp.957-965
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    • 2010
  • The municipal water is directly related to the people's quality of life. To examine and implement reasonable water policies including management of the water demand and economically sound investment decisions, it is essential to estimate the conceptually correct and empirically valid economic value of water. This study attempts to estimate the consumer surplus and economic value of municipal water which is supplied to 16 cities in Korea using demand curve approach. The results indicate that the consumer surplus and economic value of municipal water in 2009 are estimated as KRW 1,180.7 per $m^3$ and KRW 1,812.8 per $m^3$, respectively. The economic values of municipal water in 16 cities range from KRW 1,082.7 per $m^3$ to KRW 3,268.6 per $m^3$. Moreover, the economic value of non-residential water is higher than that of residential water in all cities, and the economic value of water is higher than the present price of water. This study is expected to provide policy-makers with useful information to assess a policy and to evaluate the price of water.

A Method for Forecasting Demand of High Touch Product Using Matrix Analysis of Target Populations and Product Functions (Target Population과 Product Function의 Matrix 분석을 이용한 High Touch 신제품의 판매예측 방법)

  • Park, Won-Hui;Kim, Dae-Gap;Kim, Ki-Sun;Lee, Sang-Won;Lee, Myun-Woo
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.79-85
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    • 2007
  • Demand forecasting methods for a consumer product such as TV or refrigerator are widely known. However, sales forecast for a brand new product cannot be estimated using conventional forecasting methods. This study proposes a five-step procedure in forecasting a newly developed product. Step one defines functions in a High Touch product in order to estimate relative attraction of the product to consumer group. In step two, for a comparison purpose, a compatible product that is successfully penetrated into market is selected. Step three breaks a target population into many segments based on demography. Step four calculates relative attraction between the High Touch product and the compatible product. Finally, market penetration rate of the High Touch product is estimated using a bell-shaped diffusion curve of the compatible product. The process offers a method to estimate potential demand and growth pattern of the new High Touch product.

Microgrid energy scheduling with demand response

  • Azimian, Mahdi;Amir, Vahid;Haddadipour, Shapour
    • Advances in Energy Research
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.85-100
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    • 2020
  • Distributed energy resources (DERs) are essential for coping with growing multiple energy demands. A microgrid (MG) is a small-scale version of the power system which makes possible the integration of DERs as well as achieving maximum demand-side management utilization. Hence, this study focuses on the analysis of optimal power dispatch considering economic aspects in a multi-carrier microgrid (MCMG) with price-responsive loads. This paper proposes a novel time-based demand-side management in order to reshape the load curve, as well as preventing the excessive use of energy in peak hours. In conventional studies, energy consumption is optimized from the perspective of each infrastructure user without considering the interactions. Here, the interaction of energy system infrastructures is considered in the presence of energy storage systems (ESSs), small-scale energy resources (SSERs), and responsive loads. Simulations are performed using GAMS (General Algebraic modeling system) to model MCMG, which are connected to the electricity, natural gas, and district heat networks for supplying multiple energy demands. Results show that the simultaneous operation of various energy carriers, as well as utilization of price-responsive loads, lead to better MCMG performance and decrease operating costs for smart distribution grids. This model is examined on a typical MCMG, and the effectiveness of the proposed model is proven.

Estimation and utilization of transport LPG demand function (수송용 LPG 수요함수의 추정 및 활용)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Han, Jong-Ho;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2012
  • This paper attempts to estimate the demand function for the transport LPG and to analyze long-run and short-run price and income elasticities. In addition, the paper measures consumer surplus and economic value ensuing from the transport LPG consumption by utilizing the estimated long-run price elasticity. The price and the income data are the monthly real transport LPG price and the monthly composite index adjusted by real transport LPG price from 2003 to 2012. Unit root test, co-integration test and error correction model are to take the procedure of estimation of demand curve. The demand for transport LPG is considered to be inelastic and the long-run demand is more elasticity than that of short-run. Price elasticity of demand estimate here is -0.422, and the estimated consumer surplus and economic value in 2010/03 are 966 and 1,781 billion won, respectively.

Demand Concentration in the Korean Digital Online Movie Market (디지털 온라인 영화시장의 수요 집중화 경향)

  • Choi, Sung-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2021
  • With technological development including digitization, movie demand and supply in digital online movie market are increasing. This study aims to explore demand concentration of the digital online movie market, which is characterized by product variety compared to cinemas. Major findings of the empirical analysis on the TV VOD data during the recent seven years(2013 ~ 2019) are as follows. First, the analysis on 1,137 titles reveals that movie demand of theatrical market is more concentrated than that of TV VOD. Second, absolute long tail index of TV VOD, measured by the download number of indie & artistic movies(niche product), is increasing as more such movies are released in the market. However, both relative long tail index, measured by the share of indie & artistic movie demand, and top-ranked movies' share do not show consistent increase or decrease trend. Third, regression analysis exhibits that the relationship between demand concentration and market size is insignificant for TV VOD market. This study might have usefulness in that it provides empirical evidence for the nature of the Korean digital online movie market.

Determination of Dimension of Vertical Curve Elements at Parking Lot Ramps (주차장 램프의 종단곡선 제원 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Sung-Dae;Kim, Yoon-Mi;Hong, Jeong-Pyo;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.607-616
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    • 2015
  • The demand for cars has been so steadily increasing based on the economic growth that the number of registered cars reached 18,870,000 as of the end of December, 2012. Due to this, the demand for the parking lots also rises continuously. Because of the limited ground space, the buildings ever becoming larger, and the trend of underground parking spaces, recent parking spaces are generally constructed underground. Accordingly, the parking lot ramps slope is limited to less than 17% by relevant laws to ensure the driver safety. However, when a driver enters a parking lot ramps whose slope is slightly steep, he frequently experiences his car body colliding with ramp brackets and often sees the scratches on ramp floor. Thus, this study is intended to prevent any damage to a structure and to contribute to ensuring the riding comfort and safety of drivers and passengers by presenting the details of proper vertical curve to prevent the collision of vehicles with ramp brackets through a vertical analysis of the first and last parts of a parking lot ramps. Because it is necessary to decide the appropriate and suitable vertical slope of a parking lot ramps, this study first identified the problems through site inspection, targeting the parking lot ramps of large buildings frequently that are used by many random people. Next, the possibility of mutual collision was assessed through a theoretical analysis of the first and last parts of a parking lot ramps. Lastly, the vertical curve of a parking ramp was analyzed to estimate its details, which was presented in this study. In conclusion, if the vertical curve presented through this study is used, it will help prevent any damage to the cars and structures, ensure the riding comfort and safety of the drivers, and further reestablish the criteria for vertical installation of a parking lot ramps.

An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.