• Title/Summary/Keyword: defining forecasting regions

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Defining Homogeneous Weather Forecasting Regions in Southern Parts of Korea (남부지방의 일기예보구역 설정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Il-Kon;Park, Hyun-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.469-488
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    • 1996
  • The defining of weather forecasting regions is possible. since the representativeness of regional weather can by reasonably clarified in terms of weather entropy and the use of information ratio. In this paper, the weather entropy and information ratio were derived numerially from using the information theory. The typical weather characteristics were clarified and defined in the homogeneous weather forecasting regions of the southern parts of Korea. The data used for this study are the daily precipitation and cloudiness during the recent five years (1990-1994) at 42 stations in southern parts of Korea. It is divided into four classes of fine, clear, cloudy and rainy. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The maximum value of weather entropy in study area is 2.009 vits in Yosu in July, and the minimum one is 1.624 bits in Kohung in October. The mean value of weather entropy is maximal in July, on the other hand, minimal in October during four season. The less the value of entropy is, the stabler the weather is. While the bigger the value of entropy is, the more changeable the weather is. 2. The deviation from mean value of weather entropy in southern parts of Korea, with the positive and the negative parts, shows remarkably the distributional tendency of the east (positive) and the west (negative) in January but of the south (positive) and the north (negative) in July. It also clearly shows the distributional tendency of the east (postive) and the west(negative) in the coastal region in April, and of X-type (southern west and northern east: negative) in Chiri Mt. in October. 3. In southern parts, the average information ratio maximaly appear 0.618 in Taegu area in July, whereas minimally 0.550 in Kwangju in October. Particularly the average information ratio of Pusan area is the greatest in April, but the smallest in October. And in Taegu, Kwangju, and Kunsan, it is the greatest in April, January, and July, but the smallest in Jyly, July, and pril. 4.The narrowest appreance of weather representativeness is in July when the Kwangju is the center of the weather forecasting. But the broadest one is in April when Taegu is the center of weather forecasting. 5. The defining of weather forecasting regions in terms of the difference of information ratio most broadly shows up in July in Pusan including the whole Honam area and the southern parts of Youngnam when the Pusan-Taegu is the basis of the application of information ratio. Meanwhile, it appears most broadly in January in Taegu including the whole southern parts except southern coastal area.

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Variation and Forecast of Rural Population in Korea: 1960-1985 (농촌인구(農村人口)의 변화(變化)와 예측(豫測))

  • Kwon, Yong Duk;Choi, Kyu Seob
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.8
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 1990
  • This study investigated the relationship between the cutflow of rural population and agricultural policy by using time series method. For the analytical tools, decomposition time series methods and regression technique were employed in computing seasonal fluctuation and cyclical fluctuation of population migration. Also, this study predicted farmhouse, rural population till the 2000's by means of the mathematical methods. The analytical forms employed in forecasting farmhouse, rural population were Exponential curve, Gompertz curve and Transcendental form. The major findings of this study were identified as follows: 1) Rural population and farmhouse population began to decrease from 1965 and hastily went down since 1975. Rural population which accounted for 36.4 percent, 35.6 percent of national population respectively in 1960 diminished about two times: 17.5 percent, 17.1 percent respectively. 2) The rapid decreasing of the rural population was caused because of the outflow of rural people to the urban regions. Of course, that was also caused from the natural decreases but the main reason was heavily affected more the former than the latter. In the outflowing course shaped from rural to the urban regions, rural people concentrated on such metropolis as Seoul, Pusan, Keanggi. But these trends were diminishing slowly. On the other hand, compared with that of the 1970's the migration to Keanggi was still increasing in the 1980's. That is, people altered the way of migration from the migration to Seoul, Pusan to the migration to the out-skirts of Seoul. 3) The seasonal fluctuation index of population migration has gone down since the June which the request of agricultural labor force increases and has turned to be greatly wanted in the March as result of decomposition time series method. As result of cyclical analysis, the cyclical patterns of migration have greatly 7 cycle. 4) As result of forecasting the rural and farmhouse population, rural and farmhouse population in the 2000 will be about 9,655(thousand/people) and 4,429(thousand/people) respectively. Thus, it is important to analyze the probloms that rural and farmhouse population will decrease or increase by the degree. But fairly defining the agricultural into a industry that supply the food, this problem - how much our nation need the rural and farmhouse population - is greatly significant too. Therefore, the basic problems of the agricultural including the outflows of rural people are the earning differentials between rural and urban regions. And we should regard the problems of the gap of relative incomes between rural and urban regions as the main task of the agricultural policy and treat the agricultural policy in the viewpoint of developing economic equilibrium than efficiency by using actively the natural resources of the rural regions.

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