• Title/Summary/Keyword: default rate

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A Study on the problems and improvement issues through the analysis of operational status about DSB of WTO (WTO DSB의 운영 현황 분석을 통한 문제점 및 개선방안 연구)

  • Zhou, Zhen;Kim, Suk-Chul
    • Journal of Arbitration Studies
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.157-177
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    • 2017
  • World Trade Organization(WTO) has 164 members since it has established on 1995. It plays a significant role in solving the world trade disputes. The process of the dispute settlement mechanism includes five steps: Negotiation, Establishment of experts group, Deliberation of appellate body, Execution and Supervision of Verdict and the Sanctions for Default. It suggested that the higher rate of developed countries using mechanism to solving the disputes than developing countries solving disputes by mechanism through the analysis of dispute of WTO members. Meanwhile, the more powerful economic entity is, the more trade dispute will be. There are several problems of mechanism by analysis the recently famous cases of trade disputes: Overburden of experts panel, Low utilization rate of the mechanism of developing countries, Lack of economic competition policy and labor standard terms and Unfulfillment of retaliatory measures of developing countries towards developed countries. This paper propose proper solutions and advises to improve mechanism of WTO dispute settlement.

Logistic Regression for Investigating Credit Card Default

  • Yang, Jeong-Won;Ha, Sung-Ho;Min, Ji-Hong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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    • 2008.10b
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    • pp.164-169
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    • 2008
  • The increasing late-payment rate of credit card customers caused by a recent economic downturn are incurring not only reduced profit of department stores but also significant loss. Under this pressure, the objective of credit forecasting is extended from presumption of good or bad customers to contribution to revenue growth. As a method of managing defaults of department store credit card, this study classifies credit delinquents into some clusters, analyzes repaying patterns of customers in each cluster, and develops credit forecasting system to manage delinquents of department store credit card using data of Korean D department store's delinquents. The model presented by this study uses Kohonen network, a kind of artificial neural network of data mining techniques to cluster credit delinquents into groups. Logistic regression model is also used to predict repayment rate of customers of each cluster per period. The accuracy of presented system for the whole clusters is 92.3%.

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Country Fundamentals and Currency Excess Returns

  • Kim, Daehwan;Song, Chi-Young
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.111-142
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    • 2014
  • We examine whether country fundamentals help explain the cross-section of currency excess returns. For this purpose, we consider fundamental variables such as default risk, foreign exchange rate regime, capital control as well as interest rate in the multi-factor model framework. Our empirical results show that fundamental factors explain a large part of the cross-section of currency excess returns. The zero-intercept restriction of the factor model is not rejected for most currencies. They also reveal that our factor model with country fundamentals performs better than a factor model with usual investment-style factors. Our main empirical results are based on 2001-2010 balanced panel data of 19 major currencies. This paper may fill the gap between country fundamentals and practitioners' strategies on currency investment.

Establishment of Baseline Emission Factor of Methane in Korean Rice Paddy Soil (국내 벼 논에서 메탄 기본배출계수 개발)

  • Kim, Gun-Yeob;Jeong, Hyun-Cheol;Ju, Ok-Jung;Kim, Hee-Kwon;Park, Jun-Hong;Gwon, Hyo-Suk;Kim, Pil-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.359-365
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    • 2013
  • BACKGROUND: Methane ($CH_4$) emission is calculated using the default $CH_4$ emission factor as recommended by the International Panel on Climate Change(IPCC guidelines). However, the default emission factor has been derived using including the data from other countries having different soil and environmental conditions and may not reflect the real $CH_4$ emission rates in Korea. The objective of this study was to estimate the baseline emission factor of $CH_4$ in Korean paddy soils during rice cultivation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Methane emission patterns were characterized in four different paddy soils across country for a consecutive 3 years during the rice cultivation period. Rice plants were cultivated under continuous flooding and fertilized using the recommended chemical fertilization in Korea ($N-P_2O_5-K_2O$=90-45-57kg/ha). The mean $CH_4$ emission rate was 2.32 kg $CH_4$/ha/day and the uncertainty of the investigated data was 21.7%, with a valuable error range at 1.82-2.82 kg $CH_4$/ha/day with a 95% confidence interval. CONCLUSION(S): Conclusively, the Korean paddy soils' baseline emission factor of $CH_4$ is approximately 2.32 kg $CH_4$/ha/day and can be used to estimate the $CH_4$ emissions more exactly.

Determinants of Credit Default Swap Spreads: The Case of Korean Firms (한국 기업들의 신용부도스왑 스프레드에 대한 결정요인 분석)

  • Park, Yoon-S.;Kim, Han-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.10
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    • pp.4359-4368
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    • 2011
  • Among several macroeconomic missteps blamed for the recent global financial crisis including the social problems of income distribution and the lack of proper financial remedies, two of them have received particular attention: the global BOP(Balance of Payment) imbalance and the misguided monetary policy. Such BOP imbalance was blamed for massive foreign exchange investment flows from Asia into the U.S., triggering the financial and real estate bubble in America. The latter refers to the excessively loose monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which pushed financial institutions and households into reckless investment behavior in search of higher returns. Given the abuse of certain innovative financial techniques and new investment instruments that have been created in recent decades, both collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and credit default swaps (CDS) enjoyed a symbiotic and toxic relationship prior to the financial crisis This paper is organized as follows: The first section analyzes the real causes of the recent financial crisis. The second details the role of CDOs and CDS. Then, to identify key determinants of the CDS spreads in an emerging capital market, the sample data of major Korean firms' CDS spreads are used to estimate the risk premium by utilizing the multiple regression analysis. The empirical test result indicates that Korean 3-year treasury bond rate(TYIELD), market to book value ratio(MV/BV), and assets size(INASSETS) are shown to demonstrate statistically significant influences on the changes of the CDS premium for sample firms.

Calibration of Activated Sludge Model No. 1 using Maximum Respiration Rate: Maximum Autotrophs Specific Growth Rate (최대 호흡율을 이용한 활성슬러지 모델 No.1 보정: 자가영양균 최대비성장율 추정)

  • Choi, E.H.;Buys, B.;Temmink, H.;Klapwijk, B.
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.409-413
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    • 2005
  • A method to estimate the autotrophic maximum specific growth rate is presented in this paper. First of all, the concentration of nitrifier is simulated based on the amount of N nitrified, the sludge age and the default value for the decay coefficient. Secondly the OUR of the sludge with access of ammonia is measured. The maximum specific growth rate can be calculated as ${\mu}_{max,A}\;=\;OUR_{max,A}/Y_A$. It was demonstrated that the maximum specific growth rate of autotrophic biomass is not a constants but a time variable parameter. It is concluded that using $OUR_{max,A}$ for dynamic estimating maximum specific growth rate is a good approach and that using a constant value for the maximum specific growth rate over a longer period of time could not predict the performance of activated sludge plants.

Property Analysis of Municipal Solid Waste and Estimation of CO2 Emissions from Waste Incinerators (생활폐기물 특성 분석 및 소각시설의 CO2 배출량 평가)

  • Kim, Byung-Soon;Kim, Shin-Do;Kim, Chang-Hwan;Lee, Tae-Jung
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.657-665
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    • 2010
  • Carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) is known to be a major greenhouse gas partially emitted from waste combustion facilities. According to the greenhouse gas emission inventory in Korea, the quantity of the gas emitted from waste sector in 2005 represents approximately 2.5 percent of all domestic greenhouse gas emission. Currently, the emission rate of greenhouse gas from the waste sector is relatively constant partly because of both the reduced waste disposal in landfills and the increased amounts of waste materials for recycling. However, the greenhouse gas emission rate in waste sectors is anticipated to continually increase, mainly due to increased incineration of solid waste. The objective of this study was to analyze the property of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) and estimate $CO_2$ emissions from domestic MSW incineration facilities. The $CO_2$ emission rates obtained from the facilities were surveyed, along with other two methods, including Tier 2a based on 2006 IPCC Guideline default emission factor and Tier 3 based on facility specific value. The $CO_2$ emission rates were calculated by using $CO_2$ concentrations and gas flows measured from the stacks. Other parameters such as waste composition, dry matter content, carbon content, oxidation coefficient of waste were included for the calculation. The $CO_2$ average emission rate by the Tier 2a was 34,545 ton/y, while Tier 3 was 31,066 ton/y. Based on this study, we conclude that Tier 2a was overestimated by 11.2 percent for the $CO_2$ emission observed by Tier 3. Further study is still needed to determine accurate $CO_2$ emission rates from municipal solid waste incineration facilities and other various combustion facilities by obtaining country-specific emission factor, rather than relying on IPCC default emission factor.

Research on Interest Rate Determinants in Shipping Loans (선박금융의 금리결정 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Kyung-Suk;Lee, Ki-Hwan;Kim, Myoung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.133-149
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    • 2024
  • According to previous studies, the key factor in determining the loan interest rate for shipping companies is the default risk premium. Therefore, this study analyzes the determinants of the risk premium of shipping loans using a multiple linear regression model. With the risk premium as the dependent variable, a total of 10 independent variables are selected, including three factors: loan characteristics, borrower's creditworthiness, and economic situation. Samples are 82 shipping loans supported by Bank A from 2014 to 2022. As a result, borrower's creditworthiness(current ratio, debt ratio, firm age) and economic situation(freight index) affect the risk premium in analysis for all samples. It is found that borrower's creditworthiness has some influence on the risk premium for container ships(current ratio, cash holding ratio, debt ratio, operating income to sales) and bulk carriers(debt ratio, firm age). Market situation affects the risk premium in gas carriers. However, in the model targeting tanker ships, unlike previous studies, all factors have no effect on the risk premium.

Risk Analysis of Household Debt in Korea: Using Micro CB Data (개인CB 자료를 이용한 우리나라 가계의 부채상환위험 분석)

  • Hahm, Joon-Ho;Kim, Jung In;Lee, Young Sook
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • We conduct a comprehensive risk analysis of household debt in Korea for the first time using the whole sample credit bureau (CB) data of 2.2 million individual debtors. After analysing debt service capacity profiles of debtor groups classified by the borrower characteristics such as income, age, occupation, credit scoring, and the type of creditor business companies, we investigate the impact of interest rate and income changes on debt service-to-income ratios (DTIs) and default rates of respective debtor groups. Empirical results indicate that debt service burdens are relatively high for low income wage earners, high income self-employed, low income capital and card loan holders, and high income mutual savings loan holders. We also find that debtors from multiple financial companies are particularly weak in their debt service capacity. The scenario analysis indicates that financial companies, with the current level of capital buffers, may be able to absorb negative consequences arising from the increase in DTIs and loan default rates if the interest rate and income changes remain modest. However, the negative consequences may fall disproportionately on non-bank financial companies such as capital, credit card, and mutual savings banks, whose debtors' DTIs are already high. We also find that the refinancing risk of household debt is relatively high in Korea as more than half of household mortgage debts are bullet loans. As the DTIs of mortgage loan holders are already high, under the current DTI regulation, mortgage loans may not be readily refinanced especially when the interest rate rises. Disruptions in mortgage loan refinancing may put downward pressure on housing prices, which may in turn magnify refinancing risk under the current loan-to-value (LTV) regulation. Overall our analysis suggests that, for more effective monitoring of household debt risk, it is necessary to combine existing surveillance schemes based on macro aggregate indicators with more comprehensive and detailed risk analyses based on micro individual data.

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Study on Analysis for Power Consumption and Charge/Discharge Effect with BESS in AC High-Speed Electric Railway System (교류 고속철도계통에서 BESS의 도입을 위한 전력소비 및 충·방전효과 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Yong-Joo;Kang, Byoung-Wook;Chai, Hui-Seok;Kim, Jae-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.28 no.9
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    • pp.20-27
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    • 2014
  • The power consumption pattern of high-speed railway has rarely during night time. But, during service time, the power is consumed irregularly related to train operation. Especially certain unusual about 1-2 days of service time interval to indicate the power consumption is rapidly growing phenomenon, which causes the capacity of the power contract is the annual electricity bill to rise rapidly as the cause. Normally, amount of peak power consumption bill rate at railway substation is over 20% of total electrical bill. Therefore, high-speed railway substation is expected to be considerably larger savings by reducing the peak power of the default charge(demand power).