• 한국주거학회논문집
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.33-42
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• 1998

This study has been designed to analyze longterm trend of home-ownership probability over the family life cycle. In this study, 633 female household heads were interviewed on their critical life event such as pregnancy, birth or death of households, marriage, and residential movement between 1987 and 1990 in Oxaca, Mexico. The raw data composed of 100,000 lines were transformed into yearly segmented observation data, proposed by Allison. The results are drawn as follws: 1) There is significant effect of marriage cohort on residential mobility and home ownership: couples who married in 1960s are likely to change their residence at early stage of family life than those who married in 1940s. They also have lower probability of home ownership for 10 years after marriage than the other cohorts. 2) Over all the cohorts, it is consistent tendency that probability of home ownership continuously increases over the entire family life cycle for 40 years. 3) Of the logistic regression analysis of home ownership on household socioeconomic variables, the homeownership was positively related with age of marriage and time since marriage, and was negatively related with education of female head. Over in this study, it is proven that home owenership is ultimate goal of most families, and it is a function of family event variables.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제53권4호
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• pp.211-219
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• 2020

Objectives: The goal of this study was to identify chronic conditions and multimorbidity patterns in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to examine their associations with pneumonia and death. Methods: This cross-sectional study analyzed the official data of COVID-19 patients in Mexico through May 18, 2020 (released by the Secretaría de Salud de México). Adjusted logistic regression models were applied to assess the associations of comorbidities with pneumonia and death. The marginal effects were estimated, and the probability of pneumonia or death according to the number of comorbidities was graphed for each year of age. Results: Of the 51 053 COVID-19 patients enrolled in the final analysis, 27 667 (54.2%) had no chronic conditions, while 13 652 (26.7%), 6518 (12.8%) and 3216 (6.3%) were reported to have 1, 2, and 3 or more simultaneous conditions, respectively. Overall, a significant incremental gradient was observed for the association between multimorbidity and pneumonia (p<0.001); for 2 chronic conditions, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 2.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.95 to 2.20), and for ≥3 conditions, the aOR was 2.40 (95% CI, 2.22 to 2.60). A significant incremental gradient was also found for the relationship between multimorbidity and death (p<0.001); an aOR of 2.51 (95% CI, 2.30 to 2.73) was found for 2 chronic conditions and an aOR of 3.49 (95% CI, 3.15 to 3.86) for ≥3 conditions. Conclusions: Underlying chronic conditions and multimorbidity are associated with pneumonia and death in Mexican COVID-19 patients. Future investigation is necessary to clarify the pathophysiological processes behind this association, given the high burden of chronic diseases in various countries, including Mexico.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제38권4호
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• pp.443-448
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• 2005

Objectives : This study was done to evaluate the reliability of education and occupational class between using the health survey and the death certificate data. Methods : The 1998 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) was conducted on a cross-sectional probability sample of South Korean households, and it contained unique 13-digit personal identification numbers that were linked to the data on mortality from the Korean National Statistical Office. The data from 263 deaths were used to estimate the agreement rates and the Kappa indices of the education and occupational class between using the NHANES data and the death certificate data. Results : The simple and weighted Kappa indices for education were 0.60 (95% CI=0.53-0.68) and 0.73 (95% CI=0.67-0.79) respectively, if the educational level was grouped into five categories: no-formal-education, elementary-school, middle-school, high-school and college or over. The overall agreement rate was 71.9% for these educational groups. The magnitude of reliability, as measured by the overall agreement rates and Kappa indices, tended to increase with a decrease in the educational class. The number of non-educated people with using the death certificate data was smaller than that with using the NHANES data. For the occupational class (manual workers, non-manual workers and others), the Kappa index was 0.40 (95% CI=0.30-0.51), which was relatively lower than that for the educational class. Compared with the NHANES, the number of non-manual workers for the deceased who were aged 30-64 tended to be increased (8 to 12) when using the death certificate data, whereas the number of manual workers tended to be decreased (59 to 41). Conclusions : The socioeconomic inequalities in the mortality rates that were based on the previous unlinked studies in South Korea were not due to a numerator/denominator bias. The mortality rates for the manual workers and the no-education groups might have been underestimated.

• 한국통계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국통계학회 2002년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.265-272
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• 2002

An Integer-valued autoregressive integrated (INARI) model is introduced to eliminate stochastic trend and seasonality from time series of count data. This INARI extends the previous integer-valued ARMA model. We show that it is stationary and ergodic to establish asymptotic normality for conditional least squares estimator. Optimal estimating equations are used to reflect categorical and serial correlations arising from panel count data and variations arising from three random processes for obtaining observation into estimation. Under regularity conditions for martingale sequence, we show asymptotic normality for estimators from the estimating equations. Using cancer mortality data provided by the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), we apply our results to estimate the probability of cells classified by 4 causes of death and 6 age groups and to forecast death count of each cell. We also investigate impact of three random processes on estimation.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.625-645
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• 2018

This paper's objective is to draw a decision guideline to continue research and development (R&D) investments in biotech start-ups facing the "Valley of Death" syndrome - a long negative profit period during a financial crisis. The data include financial indices as Net income, Revenues, Total stockholders' equity, Cash & equivalents, and R&D expenses of 18 major biotech companies (nine in negative profit and nine positive, in FY2008) and 15 major pharmaceutical corporations as benchmarks both in FY2008 and in FY2016 derived from the US SEC Database, EDGAR. A first methodology dealing with real options analysis assumes Total stockholders' equity as a growth option. And a second methodology, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis, is applied to test the probability relationship between the Total stockholders' equity and the R&D expenses in these three groups. This study confirms that Total stockholders' equity can play the role of a call option to support continuing R&D investments even in negative profits.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권15호
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• pp.6253-6255
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• 2014

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is considered to be a main cause of malignancy-related death in the world, being commonly diagnosed in both men and women. It is the third leading cause of cancer dependent death in the world and there are one million new cases diagnosed per year. In Iran the incidence of colorectal cancer has increased during the last 25 years and it is the fifth cause of cancer in men and the third in women. Materials and Methods: In this article we analyzed the survival of 475 colorectal patients of Taleghani hospital in Tehran with the semi-parametric competing-risks model. Results: There were 55% male cases and at the time of the diagnosis most of the patients were between 48 and 67years old. The probability of a patient death from colorectal cancer with survival of more than 25 years was about 0.4. Body mass index, height, tumour site and gender had no influence. Conclusions: According to these data and by using semi-parametric competing-risks method, we found out that only age at diagnosis has a significant effect on these patient survival time.

• 보건교육건강증진학회지
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.109-123
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• 2011

Objectives: The purpose of the present study was to explore the relationships between views on suicide, death, and life and lifetime suicidal attempts in the Korean context. Methods: Multiple logistic regression model was tested using data from Korean General Social Survey of 2009. We utilized the nationally representative survey data obtained via multistage stratified area probability sampling design from 1,599 respondents aged ${\geq}18$ years. Results: The proportion of lifetime suicidal attempts was 12.1% of entire sample in Korea. Some components of views on suicide and death influenced significantly on lifetime suicidal attempts after adjusting for demographic and health-related factors. The positive view on suicide(OR=0.76, 95% CI: 0.62-0.94), the naturalistic view on afterlife(OR=0.37, 95% CI: 0.67-0.99) and death concern(OR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.55-0.83) were risk factors of lifetime suicidal attempts. In contrast, the social responsibility view on suicide(OR=1.17, 95% CI: 1.00-1.37) and the transcendental view on afterlife(OR=1.25, 95% CI: 1.02-1.54) lowered the risk. Conclusions: Practical implications of the findings were discussed exploring policy evidences to screen high risk groups out and to reframe educational programs for suicide prevention. Strategic health messages need to be developed and transmitted for prevention of suicide.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.449-458
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• 2007

양극성 장애 (bipolar disorder)는 조증 삽화 (manic episode)와 우울증 삽화 (depression episode)를 반복적으로 경험하는 기분장애이다. 양극성 장애환자에게 우울증은 조증보다 심각한 결과를 가져오며, 치료의 효과를 측정하기도 어렵다고 알려져 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 우울증(depression) 상태에 있는 환자들을 대상으로 항우울제를 사용하여 정상 (normal) 상태로 전환했을 때, 약물의 장기 사용으로 일어날 수 있는 조증 (mania)과 같은 부작용을 통제하고자 한다. 이를 위해 정상 상태에서 조증으로 전환하는데 소요되는 시간의 분포를 추정한다. 본 연구에서는 세 가지 방법, 모수적, 비모수적 그리고 준모수적 방법을 차례대로 적용하였다. 특히 기분 전환의 흐름을 파악하기 위해 3단계 모형을 사용하였다. 예를 들어, Illness-Death 모형하에서 기분 전환의 발생시점에 대한 분포를 추정하기 위해 계수 과정에 의해 기분 전환에 대한 과정을 모형화하였다.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1246-1254
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• 2008

The land transportation is the most common way to transport passengers as well as freight among other mode of transportations and consequently more likely to be constructed for faster and convenient travel In this regard, the demand for tunnel constructions will be increasing and the safety inside the tunnel will be considered major concern more than ever. In this paper, we show probabilistic methodology to calculate the personal risk of each evacuee starting from a different location in a tunnel on fire. Passenger evacuation time and smoke spread time are both assumed to be continuous random variables having specific distributions. The evacuation of passengers at each location and the safety facilities inside the tunnel are also crucial factors to calculate the probability of death.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.61-66
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• 2007

Car crashes are the leading cause of death for persons of every age. Specially, human-related factor has been known to be the primary causal factor of such crashes than vehicle-and environmental-related factors. There are various studies to analyze driver's behavior and characteristics in driving for reducing the car crashes in many areas of car engineering, psychology, human factor, etc. However, there are almost no studies which analyze mainly the human errors in driving and estimate their probabilities in terms of human reliability analysis. This study estimates the probability of human error in driving, i.e. driver error probability. First, fifty driver errors are investigated through DBQ (Driver Behavior Questionnaire) revision and the error likelihoods in driving are collected which are judged by skillful drivers using revised DBQ. Next, these likelihoods are converted into driver error probabilities using the results that verbal probabilistic expressions are changed into quantitative probabilities. Using these probabilities we can improve the warning effects on drivers by indicating their driving error likelihoods quantitatively. We can also expect the reduction effects of car accident through controlling especially dangerous error groups which have higher probabilities. Like these, the results of this study can be used as the primary materials of safety education on drivers.