• Title/Summary/Keyword: data-mining method

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Identification of Emerging Research at the national level: Scientometric Approach using Scopus (국가적 차원의 유망연구영역 탐색: Scopus 데이터베이스를 이용한 과학계량학적 접근)

  • Yeo, Woon-Dong;Sohn, Eun-Soo;Jung, Eui-Seob;Lee, Chang-Hoan
    • Journal of Information Management
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.95-113
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    • 2008
  • In todays environment in which scientific technologies are changing very fast than ever, companies have to monitor and search emerging technologies to gain competitiveness. Actually many nations try to do that. Most of them use Dephi approach based on experts review as a searching method. But experts review has been criticised for probability of inclination and its derivative problems in the sense that it is accomplished only by expert's subjectivity. To overcome such problems, we used Scientometric Method for identifying emerging technology that had been done by Delphi as a rule. We made three particular efforts in order to improve the Quality of the result. Firstly, we selected one alternative database between SCI and Scopus hoping to see evenly-distributing results in wide fields on the front burner. Secondly we used Fractional citation counting in counting citation number in the stage of linear regression analysis. Lastly, we verified Scientometric result with experts opinions to minimize probable errors in a Scientometric research. As a result, we derived 290 emerging technologies from Scientometric analysis with Scopus Database, and visualized them on 2-dimension map with data mining system named KnowledgeMatrix which was developed by KISTI.

Reinforcement Mining Method for Anomaly Detection and Misuse Detection using Post-processing and Training Method (이상탐지(Anomaly Detection) 및 오용탐지(Misuse Detection) 분석의 정확도 향상을 위한 개선된 데이터마이닝 방법 연구)

  • Choi Yun-Jeong;Park Seung-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.06b
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    • pp.238-240
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    • 2006
  • 네트워크상에서 발생하는 다양한 형태의 대량의 데이터를 정확하고 효율적으로 분석하기 위해 설계되고 있는 마이닝 시스템들은 목표지향적으로 훈련데이터들을 어떻게 구축하여 다룰 것인지에 대한 문제보다는 대부분 얼마나 많은 데이터 마이닝 기법을 지원하고 이를 적용할 수 있는지 등의 기법에 초점을 두고 있다. 따라서, 점점 더 에이전트화, 분산화, 자동화 및 은닉화 되는 최근의 보안공격기법을 정확하게 탐지하기 위한 방법은 미흡한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 유비쿼터스 환경 내에서 발생 가능한 문제 중 복잡하고 지능화된 침입패턴의 탐지를 위해 데이터 마이닝 기법과 결함허용방법을 이용하는 개선된 학습알고리즘과 후처리 방법에 의한 RTPID(Refinement Training and Post-processing for Intrusion Detection)시스템을 제안한다. 본 논문에서의 RTPID 시스템은 active learning과 post-processing을 이용하여, 네트워크 내에서 발생 가능한 침입형태들을 정확하고 효율적으로 다루어 분석하고 있다. 이는 기법에만 초점을 맞춘 기존의 데이터마이닝 분석을 개선하고 있으며, 특히 제안된 분석 프로세스를 진행하는 동안 능동학습방법의 장점을 수용하여 학습효과는 높이며 비용을 감소시킬 수 있는 자가학습방법(self learning)방법의 효과를 기대할 수 있다. 이는 관리자의 개입을 최소화하는 학습방법이면서 동시에 False Positive와 False Negative 의 오류를 매우 효율적으로 개선하는 방법으로 기대된다. 본 논문의 제안방법은 분석도구나 시스템에 의존하지 않기 때문에, 유사한 문제를 안고 있는 여러 분야의 네트웍 환경에 적용될 수 있다.더욱 높은성능을 가짐을 알 수 있다.의 각 노드의 전력이 위험할 때 에러 패킷을 발생하는 기법을 추가하였다. NS-2 시뮬레이터를 이용하여 실험을 한 결과, 제안한 기법이 AOMDV에 비해 경로 탐색 횟수가 최대 36.57% 까지 감소되었음을 알 수 있었다.의 작용보다 더 강력함을 시사하고 있다.TEX>로 최고값을 나타내었으며 그 후 감소하여 담금 10일에는 $1.61{\sim}2.34%$였다. 시험구간에는 KKR, SKR이 비교적 높은 값을 나타내었다. 무기질 함량은 발효기간이 경과할수록 증하였고 Ca는 $2.95{\sim}36.76$, Cu는 $0.01{\sim}0.14$, Fe는 $0.71{\sim}3.23$, K는 $110.89{\sim}517.33$, Mg는 $34.78{\sim}122.40$, Mn은 $0.56{\sim}5.98$, Na는 $0.19{\sim}14.36$, Zn은 $0.90{\sim}5.71ppm$을 나타내었으며, 시험구별로 보면 WNR, BNR구가 Na만 제외한 다른 무기성분 함량이 가장 높았다.O to reduce I/O cost by reusing data already present in the memory of other nodes. Finally, chunking and on-line compression mechanisms are included in both models. We demonstrate that we can obtain significantly high-performanc

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Prediction of golf scores on the PGA tour using statistical models (PGA 투어의 골프 스코어 예측 및 분석)

  • Lim, Jungeun;Lim, Youngin;Song, Jongwoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.41-55
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    • 2017
  • This study predicts the average scores of top 150 PGA golf players on 132 PGA Tour tournaments (2013-2015) using data mining techniques and statistical analysis. This study also aims to predict the Top 10 and Top 25 best players in 4 different playoffs. Linear and nonlinear regression methods were used to predict average scores. Stepwise regression, all best subset, LASSO, ridge regression and principal component regression were used for the linear regression method. Tree, bagging, gradient boosting, neural network, random forests and KNN were used for nonlinear regression method. We found that the average score increases as fairway firmness or green height or average maximum wind speed increases. We also found that the average score decreases as the number of one-putts or scrambling variable or longest driving distance increases. All 11 different models have low prediction error when predicting the average scores of PGA Tournaments in 2015 which is not included in the training set. However, the performances of Bagging and Random Forest models are the best among all models and these two models have the highest prediction accuracy when predicting the Top 10 and Top 25 best players in 4 different playoffs.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

Spectral Induced Polarization Characteristics of Rocks in Gwanin Vanadiferous Titanomagnetite (VTM) Deposit (관인 함바나듐 티탄철광상 암석의 광대역 유도분극 특성)

  • Shin, Seungwook
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.194-201
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    • 2021
  • Induced polarization (IP) effect is known to be caused by electrochemical phenomena at interface between minerals and pore water. Spectral induced polarization (SIP) method is an electrical survey to localize subsurface IP anomalies while injecting alternating currents of multiple frequencies into the ground. This method was effectively applied to mineral exploration of various ore deposits. Titanomagnetite ores were being produced by a mining company located in Gonamsan area, Gwanin-myeon, Pocheon-si, Gyeonggi-do, South Korea. Because the ores contain more than 0.4 w% vanadium, the ore deposit is called as Gwanin vanadiferous titanomagnetite (VTM) deposit. The vanadium is the most important of materials in production of vanadium redox flow batteries, which can be appropriately used for large-scale energy storage system. Systematic mineral exploration was conducted to identify presence of hidden VTM orebodies and estimate their potential resources. In geophysical exploration, laboratory geophysical measurement of rock samples is helpful to generate reliable property models from field survey data. Therefore, we performed laboratory SIP data of the rocks from the Gwanin VTM deposit to understand SIP characteristics between ores and host rocks and then demonstrate the applicability of this method for the mineral exploration. Both phase and resistivity spectra of the ores sampled from underground outcrop and drilling cores were different of those of the host rocks consisting of monzodiorite and quartz monzodiorite. Because the phase and resistivity at frequencies below 100 Hz are mainly dependent on the SIP characteristics of the rocks, we calculated mean values of the ores and the host rocks. The average phase values at 0.1 Hz were ores: -369 mrad and host rocks: -39 mrad. The average resistivity values at 0.1 Hz were ores: 16 Ωm and host rocks: 2,623 Ωm. Because the SIP characteristics of the ores were different of those of the host rocks, we considered that the SIP survey is effective for the mineral exploration in vanadiferous titanomagnetite deposits and the SIP characteristics are useful for interpreting field survey data.

Online news-based stock price forecasting considering homogeneity in the industrial sector (산업군 내 동질성을 고려한 온라인 뉴스 기반 주가예측)

  • Seong, Nohyoon;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2018
  • Since stock movements forecasting is an important issue both academically and practically, studies related to stock price prediction have been actively conducted. The stock price forecasting research is classified into structured data and unstructured data, and it is divided into technical analysis, fundamental analysis and media effect analysis in detail. In the big data era, research on stock price prediction combining big data is actively underway. Based on a large number of data, stock prediction research mainly focuses on machine learning techniques. Especially, research methods that combine the effects of media are attracting attention recently, among which researches that analyze online news and utilize online news to forecast stock prices are becoming main. Previous studies predicting stock prices through online news are mostly sentiment analysis of news, making different corpus for each company, and making a dictionary that predicts stock prices by recording responses according to the past stock price. Therefore, existing studies have examined the impact of online news on individual companies. For example, stock movements of Samsung Electronics are predicted with only online news of Samsung Electronics. In addition, a method of considering influences among highly relevant companies has also been studied recently. For example, stock movements of Samsung Electronics are predicted with news of Samsung Electronics and a highly related company like LG Electronics.These previous studies examine the effects of news of industrial sector with homogeneity on the individual company. In the previous studies, homogeneous industries are classified according to the Global Industrial Classification Standard. In other words, the existing studies were analyzed under the assumption that industries divided into Global Industrial Classification Standard have homogeneity. However, existing studies have limitations in that they do not take into account influential companies with high relevance or reflect the existence of heterogeneity within the same Global Industrial Classification Standard sectors. As a result of our examining the various sectors, it can be seen that there are sectors that show the industrial sectors are not a homogeneous group. To overcome these limitations of existing studies that do not reflect heterogeneity, our study suggests a methodology that reflects the heterogeneous effects of the industrial sector that affect the stock price by applying k-means clustering. Multiple Kernel Learning is mainly used to integrate data with various characteristics. Multiple Kernel Learning has several kernels, each of which receives and predicts different data. To incorporate effects of target firm and its relevant firms simultaneously, we used Multiple Kernel Learning. Each kernel was assigned to predict stock prices with variables of financial news of the industrial group divided by the target firm, K-means cluster analysis. In order to prove that the suggested methodology is appropriate, experiments were conducted through three years of online news and stock prices. The results of this study are as follows. (1) We confirmed that the information of the industrial sectors related to target company also contains meaningful information to predict stock movements of target company and confirmed that machine learning algorithm has better predictive power when considering the news of the relevant companies and target company's news together. (2) It is important to predict stock movements with varying number of clusters according to the level of homogeneity in the industrial sector. In other words, when stock prices are homogeneous in industrial sectors, it is important to use relational effect at the level of industry group without analyzing clusters or to use it in small number of clusters. When the stock price is heterogeneous in industry group, it is important to cluster them into groups. This study has a contribution that we testified firms classified as Global Industrial Classification Standard have heterogeneity and suggested it is necessary to define the relevance through machine learning and statistical analysis methodology rather than simply defining it in the Global Industrial Classification Standard. It has also contribution that we proved the efficiency of the prediction model reflecting heterogeneity.

SKU recommender system for retail stores that carry identical brands using collaborative filtering and hybrid filtering (협업 필터링 및 하이브리드 필터링을 이용한 동종 브랜드 판매 매장간(間) 취급 SKU 추천 시스템)

  • Joe, Denis Yongmin;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.77-110
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    • 2017
  • Recently, the diversification and individualization of consumption patterns through the web and mobile devices based on the Internet have been rapid. As this happens, the efficient operation of the offline store, which is a traditional distribution channel, has become more important. In order to raise both the sales and profits of stores, stores need to supply and sell the most attractive products to consumers in a timely manner. However, there is a lack of research on which SKUs, out of many products, can increase sales probability and reduce inventory costs. In particular, if a company sells products through multiple in-store stores across multiple locations, it would be helpful to increase sales and profitability of stores if SKUs appealing to customers are recommended. In this study, the recommender system (recommender system such as collaborative filtering and hybrid filtering), which has been used for personalization recommendation, is suggested by SKU recommendation method of a store unit of a distribution company that handles a homogeneous brand through a plurality of sales stores by country and region. We calculated the similarity of each store by using the purchase data of each store's handling items, filtering the collaboration according to the sales history of each store by each SKU, and finally recommending the individual SKU to the store. In addition, the store is classified into four clusters through PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and cluster analysis (Clustering) using the store profile data. The recommendation system is implemented by the hybrid filtering method that applies the collaborative filtering in each cluster and measured the performance of both methods based on actual sales data. Most of the existing recommendation systems have been studied by recommending items such as movies and music to the users. In practice, industrial applications have also become popular. In the meantime, there has been little research on recommending SKUs for each store by applying these recommendation systems, which have been mainly dealt with in the field of personalization services, to the store units of distributors handling similar brands. If the recommendation method of the existing recommendation methodology was 'the individual field', this study expanded the scope of the store beyond the individual domain through a plurality of sales stores by country and region and dealt with the store unit of the distribution company handling the same brand SKU while suggesting a recommendation method. In addition, if the existing recommendation system is limited to online, it is recommended to apply the data mining technique to develop an algorithm suitable for expanding to the store area rather than expanding the utilization range offline and analyzing based on the existing individual. The significance of the results of this study is that the personalization recommendation algorithm is applied to a plurality of sales outlets handling the same brand. A meaningful result is derived and a concrete methodology that can be constructed and used as a system for actual companies is proposed. It is also meaningful that this is the first attempt to expand the research area of the academic field related to the existing recommendation system, which was focused on the personalization domain, to a sales store of a company handling the same brand. From 05 to 03 in 2014, the number of stores' sales volume of the top 100 SKUs are limited to 52 SKUs by collaborative filtering and the hybrid filtering method SKU recommended. We compared the performance of the two recommendation methods by totaling the sales results. The reason for comparing the two recommendation methods is that the recommendation method of this study is defined as the reference model in which offline collaborative filtering is applied to demonstrate higher performance than the existing recommendation method. The results of this model are compared with the Hybrid filtering method, which is a model that reflects the characteristics of the offline store view. The proposed method showed a higher performance than the existing recommendation method. The proposed method was proved by using actual sales data of large Korean apparel companies. In this study, we propose a method to extend the recommendation system of the individual level to the group level and to efficiently approach it. In addition to the theoretical framework, which is of great value.

Application of Geophysical Methods to Detection of a Preferred Groundwater Flow Channel at a Pyrite Tailings Dam (황철석 광산 광미댐에서의 지하수흐름 경로탐지를 위한 물리탐사 적용)

  • Hwang, Hak Soo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.137-142
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    • 1997
  • At the tailings dam of the disused Brukunga pyrite mine in South Australia, reaction of groundwater with the tailings causes the formation and discharge of sulphuric acid. There is a need to improve remediation efforts by decreasing groundwater flow through the tailings dam. Geophysical methods have been investigated to determine whether they can be used to characterise variations in depth to watertable and map preferred groundwater flow paths. Three methods were used: transient electromagnetic (TEM) soundings, direct current (DC) soundings and profiling, and self potential (SP) profiling. The profiling methods were used to map the areal extent of a given response, while soundings was used to determine the variation in response with depth. The results of the geophysical surveys show that the voltages measured with SP profiling are small and it is hard to determine any preferred channels of groundwater flow from SP data alone. Results obtained from TEM and DC soundings, show that the DC method is useful for determining layer boundaries at shallow depths (less than about 10 m), while the TEM method can resolve deeper structures. Joint use of TEM and DC data gives a more complete and accurate geoelectric section. The TEM and DC measurements have enabled accurate determination of depth to groundwater. For soundings centred at piezometers, this depth is consistent with the measured watertable level in the corresponding piezometer. A map of the watertable level produced from all the TEM and DC soundings at the site shows that the shallowest level is at a depth of about 1 m, and occurs at the southeast of the site, while the deepest watertable level (about 17 m) occurs at the northwest part of the site. The results indicate that a possible source of groundwater occurs at the southeast area of the dam, and the aquifer thickness varies between 6 and 13 m. A map of the variation of resistivity of the aquifer has also been produced from the TEM and DC data. This map shows that the least resistive (i.e., most conductive) section of the aquifer occurs in the northeast of the site, while the most resistive part of the aquifer occurs in the southeast. These results are interpreted to indicate a source of fresh (resistive) groundwater in the southeast of the site, with a possible further source of conductive groundwater in the northeast.

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The Analysis of the Road Freight Transportation using the Simultaneous Demand-Supply Model (수요-공급의 동시모형을 통한 공로 화물운송특성분석)

  • 장수은;이용택;지준호
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.7-18
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    • 2001
  • This study represents a first attempt in Korea to develop the simultaneous freight supply-demand model which considers the relationship between freight supply and demand. As the existing study was limited in one area, or the supply and the demand was separated and assumed not to affect each other, this study take it into consideration the fact that the demand affects supply and simultaneously vice versa. This approach allows us to diagnose a policy carried on and helps us to make a resonable alternative for the effectiveness of freight transportation system. To find a relationship between them, we use a method of econometrics. a structural equation theory and two stage least-squares(2SLS) estimation technique, to get rid of bias which involves two successive applications of OLS. Based on the domestic freight data, this study consider as explanatory variables a number of population(P), industry(IN), the amount of production of the mining and manufacturing industries(MMI), the rate of the effectiveness of freight capacity(LE) and the distance of an empty carriage operation(VC). This study describes well the simultaneous process of freight supply-demand system in that the increase of VC from the decrease of VC raises the cargo capacity and cargo capacity also augments VC. By the way. it is analyzed that the increment of VC due to the increase of the cargo capacity is larger than the reduction of VC owing to the increase of the quantify of goods. Therefore an alternative policy is needed in a short and long run point of view. That is to say, to promote the effectiveness of the freight transportation system, a short term supply control and a long run logistic infrastructure are urgent based on the restoration of market economy by successive deregulation. So we are able to conclude that gradual deregulation is more desirable to build effective freight market.

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