• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.319-334
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• 2024

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the gravity model commonly used for demand forecasting upon the implementation of new tourist facilities and analyze the main causation of forecasting errors to provide a suggestion on how to improve. Design/methodology/approach - This study first measured the errors in predicted values derived from past feasibility study reports by examining the cases of five national science museums. Next, to improve the predictive accuracy of the gravity model, the study identified the five most likely issues contributing to errors, applied modified values, and recalculated. The potential for improvement was then evaluated through a comparison of forecasting errors. Findings - First, among the five science museums with very similar characteristics, there was no clear indication of a decrease in the number of visitors to existing facilities due to the introduction of new facilities. Second, representing the attractiveness of tourist facilities using the facility size ratio can lead to significant prediction errors. Third, the impact of distance on demand can vary depending on the characteristics of the facility and the conditions of the area where the facility is located. Fourth, if the distance value is below 1, it is necessary to limit the range of that value to avoid having an excessively small value. Fifth, depending on the type of population data used, prediction results may vary, so it is necessary to use population data suitable for each latent market instead of simply using overall population data. Finally, if a clear trend is anticipated in a certain type of tourist behavior, incorporating this trend into the predicted values could help reduce prediction errors. Research implications or Originality - This study identified the key factors causing prediction errors by using national science museums as cases and proposed directions for improvement. Additionally, suggestions were made to apply the model more flexibly to enhance predictive accuracy. Since reducing prediction errors contributes to increased reliability of analytical results, the findings of this study are expected to contribute to policy decisions handled with more accurate information when running feasibility analyses.

• 한국정보처리학회논문지
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• 제7권7호
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• pp.2196-2203
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• 2000

As processor's operational frequency increases and processors execute multiple instructions per cycle, the processor performance becomes more dependent on the load operand referencing latency and the data dependency. To reduce the operand fetch latency and to increase ILP by breaking the data dependency, we propose a value-address hybrid predictor using a reasonable size prediction buffer and analyse the performance improvement by the proposed predictor. Through the extensive simulation of 5 benchmark programs, the proposed hybrid prediction scheme accurately predicts 62.72% of all loads which are 12.64% higher than the value prediction scheme and show its cost-effectiveness compared to the address predition scheme. In addition, we analyse the performance improvement achieved by the stride management and the history of previous predictions.

• 대한기계학회논문집
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• 제16권8호
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• pp.1503-1512
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• 1992

본 연구에서는 열화평가 및 수명예측에 있어서 가장 중요한 문제로 대두되는 기계구조물의 사용시간과 부식 정도에 대한 관계 곡선을 규명하기 위하여 실험실의 가혹 환경하에서 부식을 시키면서 표면을 측정한 데이터로 통계적인 파라메타(parame- ter)를 추정하여, 인공부식시킨 부식재로 피로 강도를 평가하고, 또 부식된 구조물의 잔존수명을 예측할 수 있는 하나의 방법을 제시하고저 한다.

• 한국가시화정보학회지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.18-25
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• 2023

In these days, high dimensional data prediction technology based on neural network shows compelling results in many different kind of field including engineering. Especially, a lot of variants of convolution neural network are widely utilized to develop pixel level prediction model for high dimensional data such as picture, or physical field value from the sensors. In this study, velocity vector field of ideal flow on ship surface is estimated on pixel level by Unet. First, potential flow analysis was conducted for the set of hull form data which are generated by hull form transformation method. Thereafter, four different neural network with a U-shape structure were conFig.d to train velocity vectors at the node position of pre-processed hull form data. As a result, for the test hull forms, it was confirmed that the network with short skip-connection gives the most accurate prediction results of streamlines and velocity magnitude. And the results also have a good agreement with potential flow analysis results. However, in some cases which don't have nothing in common with training data in terms of speed or shape, the network has relatively high error at the region of large curvature.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.850-853
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• 1999

Angus postweaning daily gain (PWDG) was analyzed to investigate effects of the heterogeneous variance and the genotypes by sex interaction on prediction of EBVs with data sets of various environmental levels. A whole data (16,239 records) was divided into six data sets according to averages of the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) of herd environment. The results comparing prediction models showed that single-trait model is adequate for most of the data sets except for the data set of poor environment for both of the bulls and the heifers where the heterogeneity of variance and the genotypes by sex interaction exists. In the prediction with the data set of the low environment level, the bull's EBVs by single-trait models had high product moment correlations with male EBVs of the bulls by the multitrait model. Whereas the heifer's EBVs had moderate correlations with female EBVs by the multitrait model. This moderate correlation seems to be resulted by the heterogeneity of variance and low heritability of the heifer's PWDG. The prediction models with heterogeneity of variance had little effect on the prediction of EBVs for the data sets with moderate to high genetic correlations.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.1151-1160
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• 2006

The similarity weight, the pearson's correlation coefficient, which is used in the recommender system has a weak point that it cannot predict all of the prediction value. The similarity weight, the vector similarity, has a weak point of the high MAE although the prediction coverage using the vector similarity is higher than that using the pearson's correlation coefficient. The purpose of this study is to suggest how to raise the prediction coverage. Also, the MAE using the suggested method in this study was compared both with the MAE using the pearson's correlation coefficient and with the MAE using the vector similarity, so was the prediction coverage. As a result, it was found that the low of the MAE in the case of using the suggested method was higher than that using the pearson's correlation coefficient. However, it was also shown that it was lower than that using the vector similarity. In terms of the prediction coverage, when the suggested method was compared with two similarity weights as I mentioned above, it was found that its prediction coverage was higher than that pearson's correlation coefficient as well as vector similarity.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.239-248
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• 2022

The prediction of algal bloom is an important field of study in algal bloom management, and chlorophyll-a concentration(Chl-a) is commonly used to represent the status of algal bloom. In, recent years advanced machine learning algorithms are increasingly used for the prediction of algal bloom. In this study, XGBoost(XGB), an ensemble machine learning algorithm, was used to develop a model to predict Chl-a in a reservoir. The daily observation of water quality data and climate data was used for the training and testing of the model. In the first step of the study, the input variables were clustered into two groups(low and high value groups) based on the observed value of water temperature(TEMP), total organic carbon concentration(TOC), total nitrogen concentration(TN) and total phosphorus concentration(TP). For each of the four water quality items, two XGB models were developed using only the data in each clustered group(Model 1). The results were compared to the prediction of an XGB model developed by using the entire data before clustering(Model 2). The model performance was evaluated using three indices including root mean squared error-observation standard deviation ratio(RSR). The model performance was improved using Model 1 for TEMP, TN, TP as the RSR of each model was 0.503, 0.477 and 0.493, respectively, while the RSR of Model 2 was 0.521. On the other hand, Model 2 shows better performance than Model 1 for TOC, where the RSR was 0.532. Explainable artificial intelligence(XAI) is an ongoing field of research in machine learning study. Shapley value analysis, a novel XAI algorithm, was also used for the quantitative interpretation of the XGB model performance developed in this study.

• 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.175-181
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• 2021

본 논문은 단기 에너지 사용량 예측을 위해 인공지능 기반의 접근법에 대해 분석한다. 본 논문에서는 단기 에너지 사용량 예측 기술에 자주 활용되는 지도학습 알고리즘의 한계를 개선하기 위해 강화학습 알고리즘을 활용한다. 지도학습 알고리즘 기반의 접근법은 충분한 성능을 위해 에너지 사용량 데이터뿐만 아니라 contextual information이 필요하여 높은 복잡성을 가진다. 데이터와 학습모델의 복잡성을 개선하기 위해 다중 에이전트 기반의 심층 강화학습 알고리즘을 제안하여 에너지 사용량 데이터로만 에너지 사용량을 예측한다. 공개된 에너지 사용량 데이터를 통해 시뮬레이션을 진행하여 제안한 에너지 사용량 예측 기법의 성능을 확인한다. 제안한 기법은 이상점의 특징을 가지는 데이터를 제외하고 실제값과 유사한 값을 예측하는 것을 보여준다.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.79-86
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• 2005

The external conditions for estimating dynamic wind loads of wind turbines, such as the turbulence, the extreme wind, the mean velocity gradients and the flow angles, are simulated over GangWon Wind Energy Test Field placed in one of the most complex terrain in Korea. Reference meteorological data has been gathered at a height of 30m from 2003 to 2004 with a ultrasonic anemometer. The absolute value of the spectral energy are simulated and the verification of this prediction has been carried out with comparing to the experimental data. The most desirable place for constructing new wind turbine are resulted as Point 2 and Point 3 due to the lower value of Turbulence Intensity and the higher value of wind resource relatively.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.1-18
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• 2015

Financial markets are characterized by large numbers of complex and interacting factors which are ill-understood and frequently difficult to measure. Mathematical models developed in finance are precise formulations of theories of how these factors interact to produce the market value of financial asset. While these models are quite good at predicting these market values, because these forces and their interactions are not precisely understood, the model value nevertheless deviates to some extent from the observable market value. In this paper we propose a framework for augmenting the predictive capabilities of mathematical model with a learning component which is primed with an initial set of historical data and then adjusts its behavior after the event of prediction.