• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.137-142
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• 2008

In this paper, we apply a logistic regression model to the data of snow damage on sugi (Cryptomeria japonica) occurred in Toyama prefecture (in Japan) in 2004 for estimating the risk probability. In order to specify the factors effecting snow damage, we apply a model selection procedure determining optimal subset of explanatory variables. In this process we consider the following 3 information criteria, 1) Akaike's information criterion, 2) Baysian information criterion, 3) Bias-corrected Akaike's information criterion. For the selected variables, we give a proper interpretation from the viewpoint of natural disaster.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.101-104
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• 2006

In the past study, the fragility curve for the evaluation of earthquake resistance and earthquake-related damage of concrete bearing wall structures were studied. The fragility curve represents the probability of being in or exceeding a given damage state such as Slight, Moderate, Extensive or Complete structural damage state, and is defined as a cumulative lognormal distribution. Each fragility curve is characterized by median and lognormal standard deviation values. We performed parametric pushover analysis for typical 12 and 24 stories apartment buildings. Based on the results, the fragility curves of concrete wall structures were standardized. Using the fragility curve, engineers can directly evaluate the probability of a damage state to a spectral displacement of interest.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.147-160
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• 2020

A stochastic probabilistic model for harbor structures such as rubble-mound breakwater has been formulated by using the generalized Wiener process considering the nonlinearity of damage drift and its nonlinear uncertainty, by which the damage path with real-time can be tracked, the residual useful lifetime at some age can also be analyzed properly. The formulated stochastic model can easily calculate the probability of failure with the passage of time through the probability density function of cumulative damage. In particular, the probability density functions of residual useful lifetime of the existing harbor structures can be derived, which can take into account the current age, its present damage state and the future damage process to be occurred. By using the maximum likelihood method and the least square method together, the involved parameters in the stochastic model can be estimated. In the calibration of the stochastic model presented in this paper, the present results are very well similar with the results of MCS about tracking of the damage paths as well as evaluating of the density functions of the cumulative damage and the residual useful lifetime. MTTF and MRL are also evaluated exactly. Meanwhile, the stochastic probabilistic model has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater. The related parameters can be estimated by using the experimental data of the cumulative damages of armor units measured as a function of time. The theoretical results about the probability density function of cumulative damage and the probability of failure are very well agreed with MCS results such that the density functions of the cumulative damage tend to move to rightward and the amounts of its uncertainty are increased as the elapsed time goes on. Thus, the probabilities of failure with the elapsed time are also increased sharply. Finally, the behaviors of residual useful lifetime have been investigated with the elapsed age. It is concluded for rubble-mound breakwaters that the probability density functions of residual useful lifetime tends to have a longer tail in the right side rather than the left side because of the gradual increases of cumulative damage of armor units. Therefore, its MRLs are sharply decreased after some age. In this paper, the special attentions are paid to the relationship of MTTF and MRL and the elapsed age of the existing structure. In spite of that the sum of the elapsed age and MRL must be equal to MTTF deterministically, the large difference has been shown as the elapsed age is increased which is due to the uncertainty of cumulative damage to be occurred in the future.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.1-10
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• 2010

The target performance of a current seismic design code is to achieve collapse-prevention in order to minimize casualties. Existing structures are also being retrofitted to meet this target performance. This seismic performance seems to have been achieved in recent great overseas earthquakes, but the accompanying enormous economic loss is pointed out as a new problem. A new seismic design concept over the current target performance is required to reduce economic loss, in which a target performance is determined by the damage probability in order to control the damage levels of structures. In this study, the seismic behavior of bridges having different characteristics was investigated by nonlinear seismic analyses, and fragility curves with respect to a reference damage level were derived. Based on these results, the characteristics of target ductilities satisfying a target damage probability were investigated.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.179-186
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• 2020

Investigating damage potential of the railway infrastructure requires either large amount of case histories or in-depth numerical analyses, or both for which large amounts of effort and time are necessary to accomplish thoroughly. Rather than performing comprehensive studies for each damage case, in this study we collect and analyze a case history of the high-speed railway system damaged by the 2004 M6.6 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake for the development of the seismic fragility curve. The development processes are: 1) slice the railway system as 200 m segments and assigned damage levels and intensity measures (IMs) to each segment; 2) calculate probability of damage for a given IM; 3) estimate fragility curves using the maximum likelihood estimation regression method. Among IMs considered for fragility curves, spectral acceleration at 3 second period has the most prediction power for the probability of damage occurrence. Also, viaduct-type structure provides less scattered probability data points resulting in the best-fitted fragility curve, but for the tunnel-type structure data are poorly scattered for which fragility curve fitted is not meaningful. For validation purpose fragility curves developed are applied to the 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto earthquake case history by which another high-speed railway system was damaged. The number of actual damaged segments by the 2016 event is 25, and the number of equivalent damaged segments predicted using fragility curve is 22.21. Both numbers are very similar indicating that the developed fragility curve fits well to the Kumamoto region. Comparing with railway fragility curves from HAZUS, we found that HAZUS fragility curves are more conservative.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.303-313
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• 1997

Though many techniques for the damage assessment of structures have been studied recently, most of them can be only applied to simple structures. Therefore, practical damage assessment techniques that evaluate the damage location and the damage state for large structures need to be developed. In this study, a damage assessment technique using a neural network is developed, in which the bilevel damage assessment procedure is proposed to evaluate the damage of a large structure from the limited monitoring data. The procedure is as follows ; first, for the rational selection of damage critical members, the members that affect the probability of failure or unusual structural behavior are selected by sensitivity analysis. Secondly, the monitoring points and the number of sensors that are sensitive to the damage severity of the selected members are also selected through the sensitivity analysis with a proposed sensitivity measurement format. The validity and applicability of the developed technique are demonstrated by various examples, and it has been shown that the practical information on the damage state of the selected critical members can be assessed even though the limited monitoring data have been used.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.187-197
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• 2009

This paper presents a systematic approach for estimating fragility curves and damage probability matrices for different frequencies. Fragility curves and damage probability indicate the probabilities that a structure will sustain different degrees of damage at different ground motion levels. The seismic damages are to achieved by probabilistic evaluation because of uncertainty of earthquakes. In contrast to previous approaches, this paper presents a method that is based on nonlinear dynamic analysis of the structure using empirical data. This paper presents the probability of damage as a function of peak ground acceleration and estimates the probability of five damage levels for prestressed concrete (PSC) bridge pier subjected to given ground acceleration. At each level, 100 artificial earthquake motions were generated in terms of soil conditions, and nonlinear time domain analyses was performed for the damage states of PSC bridge pier structures. These damage states are described by displacement ductility resulting from seismic performance based on existing research results. Using the damage states and ground motion parameters, five fragility curves for PSC bridge pier with five types of dominant frequencies were constructed assuming a log-normal distribution. The effect of dominant frequences was found to be significant on fragility curves.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.15 no.5 s.66
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• pp.475-487
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• 2003

This study developed an analysis model of estimating fatigue damage using the linear elastic fracture mechanics method. Stress history occurring to an element when a truck passed over a bridge was defined as block loading and crack closure theory explaining load interaction effect was applied. Stress range frequency analysis considering dead load stress and crack opening was done. Probability of stress range frequency distribution was applied and the probability distribution parameters were estimated. The Monte Carlo simulation of generating the probability various of distribution was performed. The probability distribution of failure block numbers was obtained. With this the fatigue reliability of an element not occurring in failure could be calculated. The failure block number divided by average daily truck traffic remains the life of a day. Fatigue reliability analysis model was carried out for the welding member of cross beam flange and vertical stiffener of steel box bridge using the proposed model. Consequently, a 3.8% difference was observed between the remaining life in the peak analysis method and in the proposed analysis model. The proposed analysis model considered crack closure phase and crack retard.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.13 no.3 s.33
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• pp.29-35
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• 1999

At the design of Mark III membrane type LNG tank, an analytical and experimental approach on the fatigue strengths of membrane and its welds are very important in order to assist designers and surveyors. In this study, fatigue tests of lap weld of Mark III membrane type LNG tank were carried out and cumulative damage factor was calculated in order to estimate the fatigue life by probability density function and rule methods. It contained the following tests and reviews : 1) The fatigue tests of lap weld of stainless steel according to statistical testing method recommended by JSME, 2)Preparation of S-N curve for lap welds considering the statistical properties of the results of fatigue tests. 3) Procedure for estimating the initiation life of fatigue crack of lap welds under variable loads by the rule lf classification society and probability density function, 4) Guideline for inspection of lap welds fo membrane type LNG tank.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.135-155
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• 2019

One of the safest and the most economical methods to transfer oil and gas is pipeline system. Prediction and prevention of pipeline failures during its assessed lifecycle has considerable importance. The dropped object is one of the accidental scenarios in the failure of the submarine pipelines. In this paper, using Monte Carlo Sampling, the probability of damage to a submarine pipeline due to a box-shaped dropped object has been calculated in terms of dropped object impact frequency and energy transfer according to the DNV-RP-F107. Finally, Reliability sensitivity analysis considering random variables is carried out to determine the effect intensity of each parameter on damage probability. It is concluded that impact area and drag coefficient have the highest sensitivity and mass and add mass coefficient have the lowest sensitivity on probability of failure.