• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.205-220
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• 2016

Seasonal adjustment is useful to provide a better understanding of underlying trends in Korean economic statistics. The seasonal component also includes calendar effects such as Seol and Chuseok. Most popular seasonal adjustment methods are X-12-ARIMA of the U.S. Bureau of the Census and TRAMO-SEATS of the Bank of Spain. Statistics Korea and the Bank of Korea compile seasonally adjusted series of several Korean economic statistics. This paper illustrates basic principles for seasonal adjustment and the current status of seasonal adjustment in Korea based on previous research. In addition, several issues on seasonal adjustment are addressed.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.101-111
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• 2001

In an attempt to demonstrate the seasonal variation of the Ulleung Warm Eddy (UWE), in which the UWE changes its shape from a warm core ring in early spring to a warm lens in late summer under the effect of surrounding East Korean Warm Current (EKWC) Water, a simple geostrophic adjustment model is considered. Model results indicate that the buoyancy increase of the EKWC Water and the strengthening of the EKWC towards summer, both of which are typical of this region, are the major factors governing the seasonal variation of the UWE.

• Journal of the korean society of oceanography
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.134-143
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• 2002

Using OGCM results, we have shown that the ring-like cold baroclinic eddies associated with cyclonic circulation are shed from late summer to early fall near the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge from the Kuroshio Extension owing to baroclinic instability. On the other hand, warm baroclinic eddies are generated by the intensified western boundary current associated with the warm anomaly accumulated near the Ridge in winter, which corresponds to the basin-wide barotropic intensification of the wind-driven gyre in winter. We are successful in reproducing the behavior of those meso-scale eddies using a simple two-layer primitive equation model driven by seasonal winds associated with the positive curl. Those eddies carry barotropic seasonal signals originated in the Pacific Basin quite slowly west of the ridge; this process introduces a phase lag in the timing of the seasonal maximum transport in the Philippine Basin west of the ridge. It Is demonstrated that the existence of bottom topography, baroclinicity, and nonlinearity due to advection are three necessary elements for the generation of these eddies south of Japan.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.885-893
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• 2015

It is important to improve the forecasting accuracy of one-year-ahead seasonal factors in order to produce seasonally adjusted series of the following year. In this paper, seasonal factors of 8 monthly Korean economic time series are examined and forecast based on the functional principal component regression. One-year-ahead forecasts of seasonal factors from the functional principal component regression are compared with other forecasting methods based on mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Forecasting seasonal factors via the functional principal component regression performs better than other comparable methods.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.733-753
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• 1994

Monthly mean sea levels from 103 tidal stations in Korea, Japan, and Russia are analyzed to study long-period sea level variations. Barometric adjustment are done for all the sea level data, using monthly air pressures at sea levels from meteorological stations near tidal stations. Seasonal variation is dominant in most of study area. It is the largest in the coasts along the Tsushima Current, and the smallest in the Russian coasts. The cross-correlations of seasonal variations are very high between the coasts along the Tsushima Current. In these marginal seas, seasonal variations seem to be related with the Tsushima Current. The phase of seasonal variations is generally getting late from south to north, and also from west to east. On the other hand, longer-period variations(longer than seasonal variation) have the largest amplitudes and the earliest phases in the coasts along the Pacific Ocean, which shows that they propagate from the Pacific Ocean. Shorter-period variations (shorter than seasonal variation) have generally lower cross correlations. Their values do not show any dictinct difference between areas, and show a common tendency that they are inversely proportional to distance. It implies that the shorter period waves are generated all over the study areas, and propagate in all the directions with faster dissipations. The trends of sea levels in the study area are generally negative in the coasts along the Pacific Ocean and positive in the other areas during the period of 1965 to 1985. By the trends, the mean volume transport between Cheju and Sasebo can be reduced by about 1 Sv during the period. The seasonal variation of volume transport obtained by sea level difference is about 2 Sv in the Korea Strait. The values are comparable to previous reports.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.9-19
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• 2004

This study is performed to examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and mortality in Daejeon for the years of 1998 - 2001. Daily counts of death were analyzed by general additive Poisson model, with adjustment for effects of seasonal trend, air temperature, humidity, and day of the week as confounders in a nonparametric approach. Daily death counts were associated with CO(4 day before), $O_3$(current day), $PM_10$(4 day before), $NO_2$(6 day before), $SO_2$(2 day before). Increase of $31.07{\mu}g/m^3$(interquartile range) in $PM_10$ was associated with 2.0 % (95% CI = 0.5 % - 3.5 %)) increase in the daily number of death. This effect was greater in children(less than 15 aged) and elderly(more than 65 aged). We concluded that Daejeon had 2 - 4 % increase in mortality in association with IQR in air pollutants. Daily variations in air pollution within the range currently occurring in Daejeon might have an adverse effect on daily mortality. These findings also support the hypothesis that air pollution at levels below the current ambient air quality standards of Korea except PM10, is harmful to sensitive subjects, such as children or elderly.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.625-637
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• 2003

This study was performed to examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and mortality in Seoul for the years of 1998∼2001. Daily counts of death were analyzed by general additive Poisson model, with adjustment for effects of seasonal trend, air temperature, humidity, and day of the week as confounders in a nonparametric approach. Daily death counts were associated with CO (current day),O$_3$ (current day), PM$_{10}$ (current day), NO$_2$ (1 day before), SO$_2$ (1 day before). Increase of 41.71 $\mu\textrm{g}$/㎥ (interquartile range) in PM$_{10}$ was associated with 1.3% (95% CI = 0.7∼1.9％) increase in the daily number of death. $O_3$ concentrations resulted in an increased risk of 1.3% for 23.86 ppb in all-aged mortality [RR = 1.013 (1.004-1.023)1. This effect was greater in children (less than 15 aged) and elderly (more than 65 aged). After ozone level exceeds 25 ppb, the dose-response relationship between mortality and ozone was almost linear. We concluded that Seoul had 1∼5％ increase in mortality in association with IQR (interquartile range) in air pollutants. Daily variations in air pollution within the range currently occurring in Seoul might have an adverse effect on daily mortality. These findings also support the hypothesis that air pollution, at levels below the current ambient air quality standards of Korea, is harmful to sensitive subjects, such as children or elderly.rly.

• Journal of environmental and Sanitary engineering
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• v.18 no.3 s.49
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• pp.89-99
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• 2003

This study is peformed to examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and mortality in Incheon for the years of 1998 - 2001. Daily counts of death were analyzed by general additive Poisson model, with adjustment for effects of seasonal trend, air temperature, humidity, and day of the week as confounders in a nonparametric approach. Daily death counts were associated with CO(1 day before), O$_3$(2 day before), PM$_{10}$(1 day before), NO$_2$(1day before), SO$_2$(1 day before). Increase of 32.21 ${\mu}$g/m$^3$(interquartile range) in PM$_{10}$ was associated with 1.9 % (95% CI = 0.8 % - 2.9 %) increase in the daily number of death. This effect was greater in children(less than 15 aged) and elderly(more than 65 aged). We concluded that Incheon had 2 - 4 % increase in mortality in association with IQR in air pollutants. Daily variations in air pollution within the range currently occurring in Incheon might have an adverse effect on daily mortality. These findings also support the hypothesis that air pollution, at levels below the current ambient air quality standards of Korea, is harmful to sensitive subjects, such as children or elderly.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.3-26
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• 1990

Encouraged by the investment in the rice paddy, the introduction of new varieties (Tong-Il), and the price support program, there has been great success in increasing rice production. Meanwhile, the demand for rice has decreased rapidly as per capita income continues to rise. Rice self-sufficiency has been attained, and a new over-supply problem is emerging. Moreover, the Uruguay Round Agricultural Negotiation would prohibit government price support for agricultural products. In October the Korean government decides the government purchase amount and support price, which works as the price guideline. All interested parties exert political efforts to influence the decision. The continued increase of the government purchase price of rice due to political pressure pushed the government purchase price above the market wholesale price in 1988. Also, the farmers preferred to sell to the government than to the wholesaler. This has discouraged the market mechanism, and the government is to take over the three functions of the market mechanism: stockpiling, seasonal price fluctuation adjustment, and circulation. Another big increase may cause the government purchase price to rise above the consumer price, which might lead to arbitrage opportunities for the farmers and suffocate the market mechanism. However, the current political situations limits the options for the Korean government. This paper argues that a supply control policy will reduce the social cost resulting from the high level of producer price support, and it proposes several second best policies: First, the production of new varieties should be reduced rapidly. Second, the old rice in the government warehouse should be auctioned or disposed of in order to reduce the government handling and management costs. Third, the acreage diversion program should be launched in order to control rice paddy acreage. Fourth, a social welfare program in rural areas should be introduced, since the share of population over 60 is increasing rapidly. Fifth, instead of the price support which is forbidden by the Uruguay Round, Korea should restructure the agricultural industry by developing new crops, by enhancing productivity and by improving the agricultural infrastructure.