• 제목/요약/키워드: crime rate

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Classification Model and Crime Occurrence City Forecasting Based on Random Forest Algorithm

  • KANG, Sea-Am;CHOI, Jeong-Hyun;KANG, Min-soo
    • 한국인공지능학회지
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.21-25
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    • 2022
  • Korea has relatively less crime than other countries. However, the crime rate is steadily increasing. Many people think the crime rate is decreasing, but the crime arrest rate has increased. The goal is to check the relationship between CCTV and the crime rate as a way to lower the crime rate, and to identify the correlation between areas without CCTV and areas without CCTV. If you see a crime that can happen at any time, I think you should use a random forest algorithm. We also plan to use machine learning random forest algorithms to reduce the risk of overfitting, reduce the required training time, and verify high-level accuracy. The goal is to identify the relationship between CCTV and crime occurrence by creating a crime prevention algorithm using machine learning random forest techniques. Assuming that no crime occurs without CCTV, it compares the crime rate between the areas where the most crimes occur and the areas where there are no crimes, and predicts areas where there are many crimes. The impact of CCTV on crime prevention and arrest can be interpreted as a comprehensive effect in part, and the purpose isto identify areas and frequency of frequent crimes by comparing the time and time without CCTV.

Defining the Patterns and Factors of Urban Crime in Korean Cities Based on the Analysis of Social Statistical Data

  • Chang, Dong-Kuk;Shim, Jae-Choon;Park, Joo-Hee
    • Architectural research
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2012
  • The high rate of urban crime is a main issue that needs to be dealt with in this high-tech society. With the rapid increase of urban crime, research has mainly focused on topics either on a global or a local scale, such as cities or communities and houses or buildings, without reliable observational data. This study makes the best use of the nationwide surveys carried out by Korean government agencies for the analysis of urban crime patterns and factors in major Korean cities. The aims of this research are threefold: understanding the relationship between urban crime patterns and socio-economic differences in cities, determining the effect of residence types on the urban crime patterns; and uncovering potential influential factors of a crime victim's individual characteristics. The statistical methods used for the analysis of social statistical data are as follows: simple regression, logistic regression, one-way ANOVA and post-hoc test. This research found that the patterns of urban crime rate in cities have a certain tendency toward the cities' socio-economic and geographical differences. The residence type is an influential factor showing a close relation to the crime rate. Personal issues, such as the types of occupation, education, marriage, etc., are directly relevant to victims of crime.

Artificial-Neural-Network-based Night Crime Prediction Model Considering Environmental Factors

  • Lee, Juwon;Jeong, Yongwook;Jung, Sungwon
    • Architectural research
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2022
  • As the occurrence of a crime is dependent on different factors, their correlations are beyond the ordinary cognitive range. Owing to this limitation, systems face difficulty in correlating various factors, thereby requiring the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to overcome such limitations. Therefore, AI has become indispensable for crime prediction. Crimes can cause severe and irrevocable damage to a society. Recently, big data has been introduced for developing highly accurate models for crime prediction. Prediction of night crimes should be given significant consideration, because crimes primarily occur during nights, when the spatiotemporal characteristics become vulnerable to crimes. Many environmental factors that influence crime rate are applied for crime prediction, and their influence on crime rate may differ based on temporal characteristics and the nature of crime. This study aims to identify the environmental factors that influence sex and theft crimes occurring at night and proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict sex and theft crimes at night in random areas. The crime data of A district in Seoul for 12 years (2004-2015) was used, and environmental factors that influence sex and theft crimes were derived through multiple regression analysis. Two types of crime prediction models were developed: Type A using all environmental factors as input data; Type B with only the significant factors (obtained from regression analysis) as input data. The Type B model exhibited a greater accuracy than Type A, by 3.26 and 9.47 % higher for theft and sex crimes, respectively.

Crime Occurrence Patterns from the Perspective of Land-use

  • Kinashi, Machiko;Tan, Yen Xin
    • 한국콘텐츠학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘텐츠학회 2015년도 춘계 종합학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.17-18
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    • 2015
  • To improve urban safety there is an increasing social need for environmental design against crime, which is defined as the creation of inconvenient environments or situations for criminal offenders. By using a cluster analysis, we aimed to clarify crime occurrence patterns from the perspective of land-use. Osaka Prefecture was chosen as the study area because it has the highest crime rate in Japan. The results revealed that there are six patterns of crime occurrence, and that cities of medium-level of mixed land-use have the lowest crime rates.

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한국의 연령-범죄곡선 (Age-Crime Curve in Korea)

  • 박철현
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.149-177
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    • 2001
  • 이 연구는 80년대 이후 범죄학계에서 큰 논쟁이 되어온 연령에 따른 범죄율의 분포, 즉 연령-범죄곡선에 대해서 한국의 자료를 통해 살펴본다. 이 연구에서는 다음의 세 가지 자료들을 이용한다. 첫째, 집적된 자료로서 발생통계의 하나인 대검찰청의 범죄통계이고, 둘째 개별적 자료로서 이전의 범죄로 인해 유죄판결을 받고 교도소에 복역한 후 1987년 한 해동안 출소한 출소자들(N=988)에 대한 경철전산망을 통한 범죄경력 조회를 통해 수집된 3,541건의 입건기록과, 셋째, 또 하나의 개별적 자료로서 2000년 8월에 실시된 8개 성인교도소 및 1개 소년교도소(이상 모두 재범이상 수용소임) 그리고 1개 소년원에서 실시된 자기보고식 설문조사(N=979)를 통해 수집된 10,198건의 범죄에 대한 자료들이다. 일반적으로 연령-범죄곡선의 우경편포하는 형태는 범죄경력에 조기에 진입한 사람들과 늦게 범죄경력에 진입한 사람들의 범죄율 차이에 의해 설명되어 왔다. 모피트는 청소년기에 나타나는 범죄의 정점이 후기진입자의 참여율의 증가에 의해 설명될 수 있다고 주장하는 반면, 갇프레더슨과 허쉬는 후기진입자나 조기진입자 모두 유사한 형태의 연령별 범죄율을 갖는다고 주장한다. 앞서 언급한 두 가지의 개별적 자료들에 대한 분석결과는 지역과 시기에 관계없이 연령-범죄곡선이 우경편포하는 일반적 모양을 나타낸다는 갇프레더슨과 허쉬의 주장에 동의하지만, 이것은 또한 여러 다른 요인에 의해 상이한 모양으로 나타날 수 있다는 것을 보여준다. 또한 이 결과는 청소년기에 나타나는 범죄율의 정점이 그들의 주장과는 달리 후기진입자의 범죄율의 증가에 기인한다는 모피트의 주장을 지지한다.

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The Relationship between Residential Distribution of Immigrants and Crime in South Korea

  • Park, Yoonhwan
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제16권7호
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This study aims to not only investigate spatial pattern of immigrants' residence and crime occurrences in South Korea, but shed light on how geographic distribution of immigrants and immigrant segregation affect crime rates. Research design, data, and methodology - Th unit of analysis is Si-Gun-Gu municipal level entities of South Korea. The crime data was obtained by Korea National Police Agency and two major types(violence and property) of crime were measured. Most demographic, social, and economic variables were derived from Korean Census Data in 2015. In order to examine spatial patterns of immigrants' distribution and crime rates in South Korea, the present study utilized GIS mapping technique and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA) tools. The causal linkage was investigated by a series of regression models using STATA. Results - Spatial inequality between urban metropolitan vs rural areas was visualized by mapping. Assuming large Moran's I value, spatial autocorrelation appeared to be quite strong. Several neighborhood characteristics such as residential stability and economic prosperity were found to be important factors leading to crime rate change. Residential distribution and segregation for immigrants were negatively significant in the regression models. Conclusions - Unlike the traditional arguments of social disorganization theory, immigrant segregation appeared to reduce violent crime rate and the high proportion of immigrants also turned out to be a crime prevention factor.

공동주택단지에서의 범죄피해경험율과 범죄로부터의 안전성(safety) 평가 지표간의 상관성 분석에 관한 연구 (The Study on the Correlation Analysis between the Experienced Crime Victimization Rate and the Evaluation Indicator for Residents' Safety of Outdoor Spaces from Crime in Multi-Family Housing)

  • 이유미
    • 한국주거학회논문집
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the correlation analysis between the experienced crime victimization rate and the evaluation indicator of residents' safety of outdoor spaces from crime in multi-family housing. Additionally this paper intend to analyze the correlation analysis between the residents' satisfaction about safety and the evaluation indicator of residents' safety of outdoor spaces. For that purpose, 9 Multi-Family Housing located in the metropolitan area were selected to perform a survey against 349 residents during May 26-29, 2006. The SPSS program was used and the level of satisfaction ranged from 1 to 5. Scale of 5 being most satisfied while 1 being most dissatisfied. The results of this study are the followings; 1) Most occurred crime were auto theft and damages, poster matter theft, housebreaking. 2) The crime rate is higher in outdoor than in indoor. 3) This study proved the correlation between the residents' satisfaction about housing safety and most indicators except the number of households etc. 4) By the results of the correlation coefficient it makes clear that the number of apartment building, the visibility of Green Space, the location of pedestrian etc. have relation with the residents' satisfaction about housing safety.

사이버경찰의 수사한계와 수사력 강화방안 (The Limited Investigation of the Cyber-police and the Reinforcement of its Investigative Ability)

  • 최응렬;황영구
    • 시큐리티연구
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    • 제8호
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    • pp.379-407
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    • 2004
  • The cyber-crime is one of the results occurring from the increased dependency toward information-telecommunication devices. Currently, the Korean National Police Agency and many other related law enforcement agencies have made efforts to respond against the cyber-crimes. However, the number of cyber-crime is increasing steadily. The worse problem is that the arresting rate for the cyber-crime has been decreased than before. The reasons of decreasing arresting rate come from many different kinds of cyber-crime methods with the developed computer and network technology, Also, the easy concealment of the cyber-crime by the violater and the difficulty of specification against the data objected to search and seizure make the crackdown difficult. The other difficulties come from the lack of professionally trained investigators, the lack of high-technological investigation devices, and the failure of the technology development for the search and seizure of evidences because of the budget deficit. That is to say, these phenomenon show the comprehensive problem of the cyber-police system. Accordingly, to respond against newly changed cyber-crime activities and to investigate effectively, the cyber-police has to take consideration into the professional reorganization of the cyber-police, the development of the investigation technology, and the adjustment of current cyber-crime laws. Most importantly, the cyber-police needs the high-technological investigation devices, the development of the investigation methods, and the training for the professional human resources with the enough budget support.J

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CPTED 기준 제시를 위한 사회적 요인과 조명물리량의 통계 분석 (Statistical analysis of social factors and lighting physical quantities to present CPTED guideline)

  • 김광훈;오진우;황준권;전수정;윤근영
    • 토지주택연구
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.17-22
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, crime has been steadily increasing, causing not only economic damage but also aggravating the social atmosphere. The CPTED(Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design) guideline, which is an environmental crime prevention design technique, reduces the possibility of crime by implementing a proper defensive design plan through appropriate lighting design in the city and reduces the fear of crime. Among the various principles of CPTED, the proper use of street lamps and CCTV is considered to be an important factor in enabling natural surveillance. In this study, the authors identified and quantified the current status of the installation of street lamps and CCTV in each autonomous district of Seoul. The physical quantity of lighting and social factor quantified from light lamps and CCTV data, respectively, were expected to support the guidelines presented by CPTED. Therefore, we conducted statistical analysis based on quantified values and found that street lamps and CCTV had a statistically significant relationship with crime rate. In addition, the correlation between the safety index and the crime rate, calculated by dividing the number of street lamps and CCTVs by area, was also analyzed and an R2 value of 0.647 was confirmed.

빅데이터 융합 기반 범죄예방에 관한 탐색적 연구 - 성남시 사례 분석을 통해 - (Exploratory Study on Crime Prevention based on Bigdata Convergence - Through Case Studies of Seongnam City -)

  • 최민제;노규성
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제14권11호
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    • pp.125-133
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    • 2016
  • 최근 들어 '뭇지마 범죄' 등 각종 범죄가 지속적으로 증가하고 있다. 정부의 범죄 예방 노력과 이에 관한 연구 등에도 불구하고 범죄가 증가하고 있어 다른 접근법이 필요한 상황이다. 이에 본 연구는 빅데이터를 분석하여 대안을 제안하고자 하였다. 연구 목적 달성을 위해 본 연구는 막대그래프와 버블차드 및 버블차드를 활용한 시각화와 연관분석 등을 수행하였다. 여러 변수와 범죄와의 관계 분석을 위해 성남시, 사이버경찰청 등의 데이터를 분석하였다. 분석 결과, CCTV의 수는 범죄율을 감소시키는데 효과적이나 보안등의 수는 연관성이 크지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 또 시간대별로, 요일별로 다른 유형의 범죄가 집중되는 것을 알 수 있었으며, 외국인의 증가도 범죄의 증가와 관련이 있는 것으로 파악되었다. 이러한 분석 결과를 토대로 범죄율 감소를 위한 방안을 제시하였다.