• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.15-30
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• 2024

This study examined the current status of the number of ships and marine officers in the coastal shipping in order to successfully solve the problem of the shortage of manpower. Then it forecast the number of costal ships by ship size and the demand of coastal marine officers by applying the crew quota of the Ship Personnel Act. In addition, The supply of manpower was predicted using the Markov model, reflecting the number of turnover and retirements by year, as well as the number of new entrants and incomer from ocean-going shipping. As a result of forecasts, the demand for coastal marine officers is forecast to increase from 6,057 in 2023 to 7,079 in 2030, and the supply is forecast to decrease from 5,771 in 2023 to 5,130 in 2030, showing that the manpower of shortage is worsening. This study analyzed the problem of the shortage of lower-level licensed coastal marine officers and objectively forecast the demand and supply of manpower through quantitative analysis. In order to resolve the manpower shortage, it was proposed to expand the training and supply of 5th and 6th grade low-level licensed coastal marine officers. This study will be able to provide useful data to solve the problem of shortage of manpower for coastal shipping.