• Title/Summary/Keyword: cost prediction

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A CBR-BASED COST PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE DESIGN PHASE OF PUBLIC MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

  • TaeHoon Hong;ChangTaek Hyun;HyunSeok Moon
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.203-211
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    • 2009
  • Korean public owners who order public multi-family housing construction projects have yet to gain access to a model for predicting construction cost. For this reason, their construction cost prediction is mainly dependent upon historic data and experience. In this paper, a cost-prediction model based on Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) in the design phase of public multi-family housing construction projects was developed. The developed model can determine the total construction cost by estimating the different Building, Civil, Mechanical, Electronic and Telecommunication, and Landscaping work costs. Model validation showed an accuracy of 97.56%, confirming the model's excellent viability. The developed model can thus be used to predict the construction cost to be shouldered by public owners before the design is completed. Moreover, any change orders during the design phase can be immediately applied to the model, and various construction costs by design alternative can be verified using this model. Therefore, it is expected that public owners can exercise effective design management by using the developed cost prediction model. The use of such an effective cost prediction model can enable the owners to accurately determine in advance the construction cost and prevent increase or decrease in cost arising from the design changes in the design phase, such as change order. The model can also prevent the untoward increase in the duration of the design phase as it can effectively control unnecessary change orders.

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Complexity Reduction of Intra Prediction in H.264/AVC (H.264/AVC를 위한 효율적인 인트라 예측 기법)

  • 이남숙;이재헌
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.125-128
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, we propose two methods for complexity reduction of intra prediction in H.264/AVC. One is skipping of intra prediction using inter prediction cost at current macroblock in current P picture, average of intra prediction cost in previous I picture, and average of inter prediction cost in previous P picture. The other is skipping of intra 16$\times$16 prediction using intra 4$\times$4 prediction cost and modes. As a result, complexity of intra prediction in P picture and that of intra 16$\times$16 prediction in intra prediction macroblock can be reduced by about 80~99% and 50~93%, respectively.

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Cost Prediction Model for Building Demolition Work by Using Regression Analysis (회귀분석을 이용한 건축물 해체공사비 예측모델)

  • Kim, Taehoon;Kim, Young Hyun;Cho, Kyuman
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2021
  • While the scale of the domestic market for demolition work is steadily increasing, research on cost prediction for demolition work is insufficient. Thus, this study proposes a cost prediction model for demolition work that reflects various attributes influecing the fluctuation of demolition cost. 13 influencing factors and historical cost data were collected based on literature review and experts' advice, and two prediction models were constructed through regression analysis and the prediction accuracy was evaluated. As a result, it showed an average error rate of about 6 to 12%, and it was possible to explore the possibility of use as a reliable prediction model. The results of this study can contribute to estimating appropriate construction cost and improving related standards for domestic demolition works in the future.

Cost Prediction Model using Qualitative Variables focused on Planning Phase for Public Multi-Housing Projects (정성변수를 고려한 공공아파트 기획단계 공사비 예측모델)

  • Ji, Soung-Min;Hyun, Chang-Taek;Moon, Hyun-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.91-101
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    • 2012
  • In planning phase of Public Multi-Housing Projects, it is required to develop the methodology and criteria for fair cost prediction with influencing power from planning phase to occupancy phase. Many studies still have focused on the prediction of cost by multiple regression. However, there is no logical explanation about the influence of nonmetric variables for the prediction of cost in planning phase. Accordingly, this research pursues a cost prediction model including nonmetric variables for use in planning phase. There are 3 steps of this research : 1) Finding the factors influencing construction cost and assigning variables for a multiple regression. 2) Conducting a dummy regression analysis with nonmetric variables and model validation by comparing actual cost data. 3) Developing the ratio of RC structure cost to wall structure cost by using cost predection model. The results could establish cost prediction process including the influence of nonmetric variables and the ratio of RC structure cost to wall structure cost.

Construction Safety and Health Management Cost Prediction Model using Support Vector Machine (서포트 벡터 머신을 이용한 건설업 안전보건관리비 예측 모델)

  • Shin, Sung Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.115-120
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    • 2017
  • The aim of this study is to develop construction safety and health management cost prediction model using support vector machine (SVM). To this end, theoretical concept of SVM is investigated to formulate the cost prediction model. Input and output variables have been selected by analyzing the balancing accounts for the completed construction project. In order to train and validate the proposed prediction model, 150 data sets have been gathered from field. Effects of SVM parameters on prediction accuracy are analyzed and from which the optimal parameter values have been determined. The prediction performance tests are conducted to confirm the applicability of the proposed model. Based on the results, it is concluded that the proposed SVM model can effectively be used to predict the construction safety and health management cost.

Development of a Medial Care Cost Prediction Model for Cancer Patients Using Case-Based Reasoning (사례기반 추론을 이용한 암 환자 진료비 예측 모형의 개발)

  • Chung, Suk-Hoon;Suh, Yong-Moo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.69-84
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    • 2006
  • Importance of Today's diffusion of integrated hospital information systems is that various and huge amount of data is being accumulated in their database systems. Many researchers have studied utilizing such hospital data. While most researches were conducted mainly for medical diagnosis, there have been insufficient studies to develop medical care cost prediction model, especially using machine learning techniques. In this research, therefore, we built a medical care cost prediction model for cancer patients using CBR (Case-Based Reasoning), one of the machine learning techniques. Its performance was compared with those of Neural Networks and Decision Tree models. As a result of the experiment, the CBR prediction model was shown to be the best in general with respect to error rate and linearity between real values and predicted values. It is believed that the medical care cost prediction model can be utilized for the effective management of limited resources in hospitals.

A Study on the Prediction-Formulas of Approximate Estimate Based on Actual Work Cost for Subway (실적공사비에 의한 지하철 공사비 예측모형에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Hyuk;Jeon, Yong-Bae;Park, Hong-Tae
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2013
  • This study proposed cost prediction equation model by considering duration, construction, size, actual cost with the subway construction started by the actual cost system which was introduced since 2004. Costs - scale exponent n(confidence range: 0.5 to 0.7) for cost prediction of subway construction was drawn total cost(0.713), net cost(0.77) in point of the 11 subway construction data. The cost prediction equation model of the subway construction which was presented in this study is able to effectively apply to business planning, preliminary investigation, feasibility study, basic design stage to estimate the approximate cost in the future.

Cost Effective Value Prediction Microarchitecture using Partial-Tag and Narrow-Width Operands (부분 태그와 작은 데이터 크기에 기반한 저비용 연산결과 예측기 구조)

  • 최병수;이동익
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2001.06b
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    • pp.265-268
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    • 2001
  • In this paper we investigate the implementation cost of value prediction methods for high performance micro-processors, and propose a new value prediction microarchitecture with low cost. After simulation, we found that the proposed microarchitecture can decrease the implementation cost by 36% to 50% and with slight performance degradation (less than 5%) .

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Evaluation and Selection of Building Materials based on Life Cycle Cost Prediction (생애주기비용 예측 기반 건물재료 경제성 평가 및 선정)

  • Ahn, Junghwan;Lim, Jinkang;Oh, Minho;Lee, Jaewook
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.34-45
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    • 2015
  • As buildings become larger and more complicated, construction costs have increased with a considerable effect on buildings' Life Cycle Cost (LCC). However, there has been little consideration on economic aspects in the selection of construction materials due to limited information on the materials and dependency in architects' experience and inefficiency in cost estimation, causing design changes, increase in maintenance cost, difficulty in budgeting, and decrease in building performance. To solve these problems, this study proposed a BIM-based material selection model which reflects the comprehensive economic efficiency of building materials. Our cost prediction model can estimates the material-related cost during the entire building life cycle. Furthermore, we implemented the proposed model in connection with BIM, which can analyze and compare LCC by material. Through the validation of the model, we could confirm the necessity of LCC-based material selection in comparison with the conventional cost-centered material selection.

Psychophysical cost function of joint movement for arm reach posture prediction

  • 최재호;김성환;정의승
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1994.04a
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    • pp.561-568
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    • 1994
  • A man model can be used as an effective tool to design ergonomically sound products and workplaces, and subsequently evaluate them properly. For a man model to be truly useful, it must be integrated with a posture prediction model which should be capable of representing the human arm reach posture in the context of equipments and workspaces. Since the human movement possesses redundant degrees of freedom, accurate representation or prediction of human movement was known to be a difficult problem. To solve this redundancy problem, a psychophysical cost function was suggested in this study which defines a cost value for each joint movement angle. The psychophysical cost function developed integrates the psychophysical discomfort of joints and the joint range availability concept which has been used for redundant arm manipulation in robotics to predict the arm reach posture. To properly predict an arm reach posture, an arm reach posture prediction model was then developed in which a posture configuration that provides the minimum total cost is chosen. The predictivity of the psychophysical cost function was compared with that of the biomechanical cost function which is based on the minimization of joint torque. Here, the human body is regarded as a two-dimensional multi-link system which consists of four links ; trunk, upper arm, lower arm and hand. Real reach postures were photographed from the subjects and were compared to the postures predicted by the model. Results showed that the postures predicted by the psychophysical cost function closely simulated human reach postures and the predictivity was more accurate than that by the biomechanical cost function.