• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.231-245
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• 1996

Semiconductor manufacturing line includes several batch processes which are to be controlled effectively to enhance the productivity of the line. The key problem in batch processes is a dynamic batch sizing problem which determines number of lots processed simultaneously in a single botch. The batch sizing problem in semiconductor manufacturing has to consider delay of lots, setup cost of the process, machine utilization and so on. However, an optimal solution cannot be attainable due to dynamic arrival pattern of lots, and difficulties in forecasting future arrival times of lots of the process. This paper proposes an efficient batch sizing heuristic, which considers delay cost, setup cost, and effect of the forecast errors in determining the botch size dynamically. Extensive numerical experiments through simulation are carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed heuristic in four key performance criteria: average delay, variance of delay, overage lot size and total cost. The results show that the proposed heuristic works effectively and efficiently.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.162-168
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• 2010

Information is known to be a key element for the successful operation of a supply chain, which is required of the efficient ordering strategies and accurate predictions of demands. This study proposes a method to effectively utilize the meteorological forecast information in order to make decisions about ordering and prediction of demands by using the Taguchi experimental design. It is supposed that each echelon in a supply chain determines the order quantity with the prediction of precipitation in the next day based on probability forecast information. The precipitation event is predicted when the probability of the precipitation exceeds a chosen threshold. Accordingly, the choice of the threshold affect the performances of a supply chain. The Taguchi method is adopted to deduce a set of thresholds for echelons which is least sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, such as variability of demand distributions and production periods. A simulation of the beer distribution game was conducted to show that the set of thresholds found by the Taguchi method can reduce the cumulative chain cost, which consists of inventory and backlog costs.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.191-200
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• 2007

This paper introduces a tool for predicting potential cost overrun during project execution and for quantifying the uncertainty on the expected project cost, which is occasionally changed by the unknown effects resulted from project's complications and unforeseen environments. The model proposed in this stuff is useful in diagnosing cost performance as a project progresses and in monitoring the changes of the uncertainty as indicators for a warning signal. This model is intended for the use by project managers who forecast the change of the uncertainty and its magnitude. The paper presents a mathematical approach for modifying the costs of incomplete work packages and project cost, and quantifying reduced uncertainties at a consistent confidence level as actual cost information of an ongoing project is obtained. Furthermore, this approach addresses the effects of actual informed data of completed work packages on the re-estimates of incomplete work packages and describes the impacts on the variation of the uncertainty for the expected project cost incorporating Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis (MPA) and Bayes' Theorem. For the illustration purpose, the Introduced model has employed an example construction project. The results are analyzed to demonstrate the use of the model and illustrate its capabilities.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.84-92
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• 2021

Care services are a significant asset in human life. Care in its overall nature focuses on human needs and covers several aspects such as health care, homes, personal care, and education. In fact, care deals with many dimensions: physical, psychological, and social interconnections. Very little information is available on estimating the cost of care services that provided to orphans and abandoned children. Prediction of the cost of the care system delivered by governmental or non-governmental organizations to support orphans and abandoned children is increasingly needed. The purpose of this study is to analyze the care cost for orphanage organizations in Saudi Arabia to forecast the cost as well as explore the most influence factor on the cost. By using business analytic process that applied statistical and machine learning techniques, we proposed a model includes simple linear regression, Naive Bayes classifier, and Random Forest algorithms. The finding of our predictive model shows that Naive Bayes has addressed the highest accuracy equals to 87% in predicting the total care cost. Our model offers predictive approach in the perspective of business analytics.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.178-186
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• 2017

Air travel has become an essential part of the global society and its sustainable development is expected. Airlines profit structure and network operation will be influenced by internalization of external costs like emission charge. This additional cost of the airlines will be directly pose air ticket fare increase and demand of air passenger will be decreased. EU-ETS is a part of environmental binding to airlines fly to EU territory airports. This study analyzes the impact of emission charges by application of EU-ETS on airlines network change. For long-term forecast, a reliable estimation of the future price of carbon dioxide (CO2) will be used.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2002년도 학술대회지
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• pp.478-481
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• 2002

현재 국내 건설프로젝트에 EVMS가 도입되어 비용과 공정을 효과적으로 통합하여 관리하고 있으나 EVMS는 선진 외국의 건설환경에 적합한 방법으로서 이 EVMS를 국내에 적용하는 데에는 다소 어려운 점이 발견되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 EVMS에서 최종공사비(EAC)를 예측하는데 사용되고 있는 지수중의 하나인 합성지수(CI)의 가중치 n, m에 대한 통계적 분석을 통하여 신뢰구간상에 나타나는 합성지수(CI)를 검정하여 최종공사비(EAC)를 예측하는데 효과적으로 사용하고자 한다.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.86-94
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• 2018

This study focuses on presenting the IT program module provided by real - time forecasting and database of the voluntary disclosure quality measure in order to solve the problem of capital cost due to information asymmetry of external investors and corporate executives. This study suggests a model of the algorithm that the quality of real - time voluntary disclosure can be provided to all investors immediately by IT program in order to deliver the meaningful value in the domestic capital market. This is a method of generating and analyzing real-time or non-real-time prediction models by transferring the predicted estimates delivered to the Big Data Log Analysis System through the statistical DB to the statistical forecasting engine.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2006년도 Asia Navigation Conference
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• pp.144-153
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• 2006

In order to take TC forecasts from different observatories into consideration, and make quantitative assessment and analysis for avoiding TC routes from the view of safety and cost, a new safe-economic decision making method of TC avoidance routing on ocean was put forward. This model is based on combining forecast of TC trace based on neural networks, technical method to determine the future TC wind and wave fields, technical method of fuzzy information optimization, risk analysis theory, and meteorological-economic decision making theory. It has applied to the simulation of MV Tianlihai's shipping on ocean. The result shows that the model can select the optimum plan from 7 plans, the selected plan is in accordance with the one selected by experienced captains.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.229-239
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• 2018

Purpose: There is a difficulty in Environmental Stress Screening (ESS) test design for weapon system's electrical/electronic components/products in small and medium-sized enterprises. To overcome this difficulty, I propose an easy ESS test design approach algorithm that is optimized with only one environment tolerance design information parameter (${\Delta}T$). Methods: To propose the mass production weapon system ESS test design for cost-effective optimization, I define an optimum cost-effective mathematical model ESS test algorithm model based on modified MIL-HDBK-344, MIL-HDBK-2164 and DTIC Technical Report 2477. Results: I clearly confirmed and obtained the quantitative data of ESS effectiveness and cost optimization along our ESS test design algorithm through the practical case. I will expect that proposed ESS test method is used for ESS process improvement activity and cost cutting of mass production weapon system manufacturing cost in small and medium-sized enterprises. Conclusion: In order to compare the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, I compared the effectiveness of the existing ESS test and the proposed algorithm ESS test based on the existing weapon system circuit card assembly for signal processing. As a result of the comparison, it was confirmed that the test time was reduced from 573.0 minutes to 517.2minutes (9.74% less than existing test time).

• KIEAE Journal
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.129-135
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• 2016

Purpose: Building figuration is imperative to perceive the its value, environmental clean status and form. Therefore, maintenance activities of the building exterior are required to keep the housing condition and value. Each household should pay the repair cost which is brought out in the future. For this repair cost, the estimation model would needed to forecast and provide the required cost. This study aimed at providing the estimation model of the repair cost, using the repair survey data between the 2011 and 2014 in Seoul. Method: For these, it took various estimation function of repair cost such as 1st function, inverse function and so on. These above functions would be applied into the building exterior and outdoor facilities which figure the building shape and characteristics. Result: Results of this study are shown ; First, among 11 estimation models, the power function has a better statistics and goodness-of-fit than any other models. Second, the estimation model with a variable of household has a pattern in upward to the right. On the contrary, the model with management area is little downward to the right. Both of them are depended on the estimated parameter of the power function and the parameter smaller than 1.