• 제목/요약/키워드: cost forecast

검색결과 218건 처리시간 0.024초

항공 수요예측 및 고객 수하물 컨베이어 확장 모형 연구 : 인천공항을 중심으로 (Air Passenger Demand Forecasting and Baggage Carousel Expansion: Application to Incheon International Airport)

  • 윤성욱;정석재
    • 대한교통학회지
    • /
    • 제32권4호
    • /
    • pp.401-409
    • /
    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 시설 확장비용과 승객들의 지체시간 감소에 따른 편익을 고려한 항공의 핵심 시설 확장 문제를 다루고자 한다. 이를 위해 우리는 시계열 예측방법으로 널리 알려진 ARIMA model를 활용하여 계절 및 주기를 갖는 항공피크 수요를 예측한다. 승객이 공항에 도착한 후에 공항 내에서의 승객들의 흐름과 지체를 고려하여 실제 지체 편익을 추정하기 위해 이산사건 시뮬레이션 모형을 설계한다. 비용과 편익 간의 상충관계를 통해 우리는 컨베이어의 경제적 확장 대수를 결정한다. 인천공항의 사례를 활용한 실험이 수행되었으며, 실험 결과는 본 접근방법이 계절에 따른 승객의 도착 유형과 공항 내의 동적인 흐름을 반영한 시설의 확장 문제를 해결하는 데 효과적임을 보인다.

국제상사계약(國際商事契約)에서 중재조항(仲裁條項) 삽입시 중재기관 선택에 따른 고려사항 (A Study on Consideration factors for Selection of Institution, When Arbitration Clause Inserted in International Commercial Contracts)

  • 오원석;정희진
    • 무역상무연구
    • /
    • 제55권
    • /
    • pp.63-93
    • /
    • 2012
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine the consideration factors, from both parties' perspective, to select the most appropriate arbitral institution when they inset an arbitration clause in their contract. Accordingly, the author analyzed the advantages of institutional arbitration compared to non-institutional arbitration. The typical advantages of institutional arbitration would include: $\bullet$ Benefits of using an established set of rules $\bullet$ Services provided by the institution $\bullet$ Low risks of obstruction $\bullet$ Enhancement of the possibilities of enforcement $\bullet$ Forecast of the estimated cost $\bullet$ Specially useful for existing disputes Next, this author examined the consideration factors when selecting the institution in respect of the following factors: $\bullet$ Institution's arbitration rules $\bullet$ Institution's rule regarding the appointment of arbitrators $\bullet$ Ability of administrators of each institution $\bullet$ Reputation of the arbitral institution and the likability of enforceability of its award $\bullet$ Cost $\bullet$ Choice of the arbitral institution in relation to the choice of place of arbitration Finally, this author reviewed Model Arbitration Clause of major international or local Institutions, including ICC, AAA, LCIA, KCAB, CIETAC, ICSID and WIPO. Further examination was given to the selection of the numbers of the arbitral tribunal, the seat of arbitration and the language of arbitration, according to the designated articles in each institution's arbitration rules.

  • PDF

BTL사업 운영리스크 분석 모형 개발에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Development of an Operation Risk Analysis Model in BTL Projects)

  • 이정순;이정훈;오세욱;유현석;김영석
    • 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국건설관리학회 2008년도 정기학술발표대회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.475-480
    • /
    • 2008
  • BTL 사업은 시공비보다 운영비의 비중이 크고 장기간의 운영계획을 단시간에 수립하여 계약에 임하기 때문에 계약단계에서 운영 리스크를 예측하는 것은 사업의 성패를 좌우하는 매우 중요한 문제로서, 약정한 수준의 서비스를 제공하고 적정 수익률을 확보하기 위한 운영 리스크의 분석은 필수적이라 할 수 있다. 그러나 국내에 자금 출자와 시설 운영을 수행할 수 있는 전문 운영사의 숫자가 10여개에 불과하고 운영사 대부분의 규모가 영세하여, 운영사 내에 리스크 분석 시스템이 제대로 갖춰져 있지 않은 것이 문제점으로 대두되고 있다. BTL 사업에서 발생 가능한 리스크를 효율적으로 관리하기 위해서는 리스크 인자를 확인하고 경제적 위험도와 비경제적 위험도 그리고 발생빈도를 고려하여 리스크 인자의 우선순위를 도출하는 과정이 필수적이다. 그러므로 이 연구는 설문조사를 통해 운영사 관점에서 BTL 사업에서 발생 가능한 리스크 인자를 도출하고 우선순위를 분석함으로써 운영사의 대응전략 수립 및 리스크 관리업무의 효율성을 제고할 수 있도록 리스크 분석 모형을 제시한다. 이 연구에서 도출된 운영 리스크 분석 모형은 운영사로 하여금 BTL 사업에서 발생될 수 있는 리스크에 대한 대응전략을 수립할 수 있도록 하여 운영 리스크 관리 업무의 효율성을 제고할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

  • PDF

앙상블 학습을 이용한 적조 발생 예측의 성능향상 (Enhancing of Red Tide Blooms Prediction using Ensemble Train)

  • 박선;정민아;이성로
    • 대한전자공학회논문지SP
    • /
    • 제49권1호
    • /
    • pp.41-48
    • /
    • 2012
  • 적조란 유해조류의 일시적인 대 번식으로 바다를 적색으로 변화시키며 양식장의 어패류를 집단 폐사 시킬 뿐 아니라 연안환경 및 바다 생태계에 악영향을 미치는 자연 현상이다. 적조에 의한 양식어업의 피해는 매년 발생하고 있으며 매년 적조방제에 많은 비용을 소비하고 있다. 이 때문에 적조 발생을 미리 예측할 수 있으면 적조에 대한 피해 및 방재 비용을 최소화 시킬수 있다. 본 논문은 앙상블 학습은 이용한 적조발생 예측 방법을 제안한다. 제안방법은 앙상블 학습의 bagging과 boosting 방법을 이용하여서 적조를 예측의 성능을 향상시킨다. 실험결과 제안방법은 단일 분류기에 비하여서 더 좋은 적조 발생 예측 성능을 보였다.

데이터마이닝을 활용한 해군함정 수리부속 수요예측 (Naval Vessel Spare Parts Demand Forecasting Using Data Mining)

  • 윤현민;김수환
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
    • /
    • 제40권4호
    • /
    • pp.253-259
    • /
    • 2017
  • Recent development in science and technology has modernized the weapon system of ROKN (Republic Of Korea Navy). Although the cost of purchasing, operating and maintaining the cutting-edge weapon systems has been increased significantly, the national defense expenditure is under a tight budget constraint. In order to maintain the availability of ships with low cost, we need accurate demand forecasts for spare parts. We attempted to find consumption pattern using data mining techniques. First we gathered a large amount of component consumption data through the DELIIS (Defense Logistics Intergrated Information System). Through data collection, we obtained 42 variables such as annual consumption quantity, ASL selection quantity, order-relase ratio. The objective variable is the quantity of spare parts purchased in f-year and MSE (Mean squared error) is used as the predictive power measure. To construct an optimal demand forecasting model, regression tree model, randomforest model, neural network model, and linear regression model were used as data mining techniques. The open software R was used for model construction. The results show that randomforest model is the best value of MSE. The important variables utilized in all models are consumption quantity, ASL selection quantity and order-release rate. The data related to the demand forecast of spare parts in the DELIIS was collected and the demand for the spare parts was estimated by using the data mining technique. Our approach shows improved performance in demand forecasting with higher accuracy then previous work. Also data mining can be used to identify variables that are related to demand forecasting.

Cultural Tunneling Effect: Conceptual adoption & Application in movie industry

  • Roh, Seungkook
    • Asia Marketing Journal
    • /
    • 제16권3호
    • /
    • pp.77-100
    • /
    • 2014
  • Many researchers have analyzed the relationship between the financial success patterns of a motion picture and many other factors, such as the production cost, marketing, stars, awards, reviews, genre, and rating. Through these studies, many researchers and investors concluded that big budgets to make a blockbuster movie can serve as an insurance policy to meet their ROI; thus the box office is dominated by blockbuster movies. High-budget blockbuster movies are more likely to receive attention because these movies are more recognizable given their high expenses for production and casting. Therefore, audiences choose blockbusters in an effort to reduce the searching cost and to mitigate the possibility of a regrettable choice. This behavior of consumers, in turn, causes distributors to allocate screens for blockbusters, resulting in "concentration of blockbuster consumption." As such, low-budget films cannot easily become popular due to the lack of distribution. Indeed, low-budget films released on a small number of screens often end up becoming dismal failures. However, there are exceptional examples which are contrary to the general idea in the movie industry that a big budget and showings on a large number of screens can guarantee the success of a movie. Although researchers have attempted to analyze the performances of movies with small budgets, such movies are likely to be regarded as outliers and then be entirely discarded, as they are far from the 'three-sigma' range, especially given that previous research methodologies could not explain the financial success of such unique examples. This study attempts to explain the financial success at the box office of low-budget movies by applying the concept of the tunnel effect in quantum mechanics, as the phenomenon found in the movie industry is similar to a particle's movement in quantum physics. The tunneling effect is a phenomenon by which a particle without enough energy to pass over a potential barrier tunnels through it. Adopting the analogy, this study draws a tunneling probability function and cultural constant to forecast other outliers using the Schrödinger equation. Moreover, the study finds that word-of-mouth creates in the movie industry this phenomenon of finding outliers.

COMPENSATION STRUCTURE AND CONTINGENCY ALLOCATION IN INTEGRATED PROJECT DELIVERY SYSTEMS

  • Mei Liu;F. H. (Bud) Griffis;Andrew Bates
    • 국제학술발표논문집
    • /
    • The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
    • /
    • pp.338-343
    • /
    • 2013
  • Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) as a delivery method fully capitalizes on an integrated project team that takes advantage of the knowledge of all team members to maximize project outcomes. IPD is currently the highest form of collaboration available because all three core project stakeholders, owner, designer and contractor, are aligned to the same purpose. Compared with traditional project delivery approaches such as Design-Bid-Build (DBB), Design-Build (DB), and CM at-Risk, IPD is distinguished in that it eliminates the adversarial nature of the business by encouraging transparency, open communication, honesty and collaboration among all project stakeholders. The team appropriately shares the project risk and reward. Sharing reward is easy, while it is hard to fairly share a failure. So the compensation structure and the contingency in IPD are very different from those in traditional delivery methods and they are expected to encourage motivation, inspiration and creativity of all project stakeholders to achieve project success. This paper investigates the compensation structure in IPD and provides a method to determine the proper level of contingency allocation to reduce the risk of cost overrun. It also proposes a method in which contingency could be used as a functional monetary incentive when established to produce the desired level of collaboration in IPD. Based on the compensation structure scenario discovered, a probabilistic contingency calculation model was created by evaluating the random nature of changes and various risk drivers. The model can be used by the IPD team to forecast the probability of the cost overrun and equip the IPD team with confidence to really enjoy the benefits of collaborative team work.

  • PDF

Delphi기법을 통한 교통수요예측 Risk Management 적용 방안 (Application of Risk Management to Forecasting Transportation Demand by Delphi Technique)

  • 정성봉;이수호;남궁백규
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국철도학회 2011년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.1572-1581
    • /
    • 2011
  • Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment has been active on transport infrastructure. But investment of transport infrastructure has more risks than others due to overforecast of transport demand for ensuring project validity, and cost uncertainty arising from financial crisis, commodity prices and so on. In the case of Incheon international airport express, after 2 years and 6 months, Incheon international airport express is opened, Korail take over equity stake in private investor due to the problems of MRG(Minimum Revenue Guarantee) be contracted with private investor. Not only that, in other case of Yong-in light rail, it is ongoing for legal disputes between Yong-in local government and private investor on account of opening delaying. On current Investment Assessment System of Transport Infrastructure, Risk Management system on investment of transport infrastructure is inadequate because Sensitivity Analysis in economic efficiency have been performed on the simple method which only changes benefits, expense and social discount rate. For this reason, this study analyze risks for investment of transport infrastructure demand forecast, and rise to the management practice for every particular item.

  • PDF

Markov Chain을 이용한 국내 폐차발생량 예측 (A Study on the Forecasting of the Number of End of Life Vehicles in Korea using Markov Chain)

  • 이은아;최회련;이홍철
    • 대한산업공학회지
    • /
    • 제38권3호
    • /
    • pp.208-219
    • /
    • 2012
  • As the number of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) has kept increasing, the management of ELV has also become one of the academic research focuses and European Union recently adopted the directive on ELVs. For the stakeholders has become a principle agent of dealing with all about ELVs, it is relevant investment decision to set up and to decide high-cost ELVs entity locations and to forecast future ELVs' amount in advance. In this paper, transition probability matrixes between months are made by using Markov Chain and the number of ELVs is predicted with them. This study will perform a great role as a fundamental material in Korea where just started having interests about recycling resources and studies related to the topic. Moreover, the forecasting method developed for this research can be adopted for other enhancements in different but comparable situations.

플랜트 EPC 기업의 해외 원자력 발전 프로젝트 진출방안 (Penetration of Korean EPC Companies into International Market for Nuclear Power Plant)

  • 조찬형;문승재;유호선
    • 플랜트 저널
    • /
    • 제5권3호
    • /
    • pp.66-73
    • /
    • 2009
  • This study aims to develop a strategy for South Korean companies to penetrate into the global NPP(nuclear power plant) market with their strength as the sixth biggest nuclear power generator in the world. With 20 nuclear plants in commercial operation and 6 more in construction, South Korea has the best technology in construction and operation of NPP. Despite these capabilities as demonstrated on its domestic market, Korean companies' constraint to enter and play a key role in global NPP market would be the lack of experience in overseas NPP projects, original technologies, and diplomatic effectiveness. This study analyzes the competitiveness of Korean standardized nuclear power plant, construction management skills, construction technologies, manufacturing equipment and materials and operation skills. In this research the current status of existing NPP and the forecast of building NPP according to countries was analyzed in order to work out strategies with technology, cost-effectiveness, and diplomatic consideration.

  • PDF