• 제목/요약/키워드: confidence region

검색결과 243건 처리시간 0.026초

2012~2017년 강원지역에서 채집된 모기의 계절적 발생소장과 플라비바이러스 감염률 (Mosquito Prevalence and Flavivirus Infection Rates in Gangwon-do, Republic of Korea)

  • 정세진;고석현;고은미;임은주;김영수;이욱교;이동규
    • 한국응용곤충학회지
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    • 제58권2호
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 2019
  • 2012~2017년까지 강원도 3개 시 군(춘천시, 강릉시, 횡성군)에서 채집된 모기는 총 6속 13종, 654,362마리가 채집되었다. 채집된 모기는 분류하여 얼룩날개모기속을 제외하고 종별, 채집일, 채집 장소에 따라 최대 50마리를 1개 실험군으로 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, 염기서열 분석방법으로 플라비바이러스 감염여부를 조사하였다. 채집모기 276,224마리에 대해 7,721개 실험군을 검사한 결과 68개 실험군(0.9%)에서 플라비바이러스 유전자가 검출되었다. 검출된 플라비바이러스의 염기서열 분석결과 4개 실험군은 일본뇌염바이러스(Japanese encephalitis virus), 64개 실험군은 차오양바이러스(Chaoyang virus)로 확인되었다. 일본뇌염바이러스는 2012년 춘천시에서 채집된 2,728마리의 빨간집모기 중 1개 실험군, 2013년 횡성군에서 채집된 19마리의 동양집모기 중 1개 실험군, 2017년 춘천시에서 채집된 1,111마리의 빨간집모기 중 1개 실험군, 강릉시에서 채집된 빨간집모기 724마리 중 1개 실험군에서 검출되었다. 검출된 일본뇌염바이러스의 유전형은 모두 V형 바이러스였다. 차오양바이러스는 강원도 내에서 6년간 채집된 금빛숲모기 232,871마리, 5,055개 실험군을 대상으로 검사한 결과 63개 실험군에서 검출되었으며, 춘천지역에서 채집된 빨간집모기 585개 실험군 중 1개 실험군에서 검출되었다. 채집지역별 금빛숲모기의 차오양바이러스 감염률이 가장 높은 지역은 MIR (최소감염률) 0.32, MLE (최대우도법) 0.33 (CI 0.23~0.46) 감염률을 보인 춘천시였다. 그 뒤로 횡성군 MIR 0.30, MLE 0.30 (CI 0.16~0.52)과 강릉시 MIR 0.21, MLE 0.21 (CI 0.13~0.31)순이었다. 월별 금빛숲모기의 차오양바이러스 감염률은 10월에 MIR 0.38, MLE 0.38 (CI 0.07~1.25)로 가장 높은 감염률을 나타내었다.

경과기온 양상에 따른 신고 배의 지역별 개화예측모델 평가 (Evaluation of Regional Flowering Phenological Models in Niitaka Pear by Temperature Patterns)

  • 김진희;윤은정;김대준;강대균;서보훈;심교문
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.268-278
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    • 2020
  • 기후변화에 특히 민감한 농업분야에서 최근 겨울철 이상난동 현상으로 과실류의 개화시기는 앞당겨지고 있으며, 늦서리에 의한 꽃눈의 피해는 지속적으로 발생하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 꽃눈이 늦가을부터 휴면에 진입하여 추운 겨울을 지나 싹이 트고 꽃이 피는 봄까지 경과 기온의 양상이 식물의 개화반응에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 살펴보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 남한에서 주로 활용되고 있는 개화예측모델을 대상으로 최근 3년간 8개 지점에서 관측된 기온 자료를 확보하여 신고 배의 내생휴면 해제를 위해 필요한 냉각량과, 휴면타파 이후 개화까지 요구되는 가온량의 일정기간 누적값을 모델별로 각각 비교하고, 객관적으로 평가할 수 있는 관측 만개일 정보를 수집하여 지역별 모델 예측력을 평가하였다. 변동계수로 살펴본 냉각량 계산에 대한 모델별 성능은 mDVR 모델에서 8.4%로 가장 안정적인 것으로 확인되었고, 휴면해제 이후 개화에 도달하기까지 필요한 가온량에 대한 모델별 변동계수는 CD 모델이 17.5%로 낮은 편이었다. 2018년부터 2020년까지 3년간의 신고 배의 만개기 관측날짜로부터 평가한 DVR 모델, mDVR 모델, CD 모델의 만개기 예측력은 mDVR 모델의 정확도가 가장 높은 것으로 나타났고, DVR 모델이 전반적으로 좋지 않았다. 특히 울주나 사천 등 기온이 온난한 남부 해안지역에서 오차가 큰 경향이었으며, 예년에 비해 겨울철 기온이 유난히 따뜻했던 2019-2020년은 이천을 제외한 모든 지점에서 실제 개화일보다 빠르게 예측하는 결과를 보였다.

한국의 지역개발과 댐건설 (Regional Development And Dam Construction in Korea)

  • 안경모
    • 물과 미래
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.38-42
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    • 1976
  • Because of differences in thoughts and ideology, our country, Korea has been deprived of national unity for some thirty years of time and tide. To achieve peaceful unification, the cultivation of national strength is of paramount importance. This national strength is also essential if Korea is to take rightful place in the international societies and to have the confidence of these societies. However, national strength can never be achieved in a short time. The fundamental elements in economic development that are directly conducive to the cultivation of national strength can be said to lie in -a stable political system, -exertion of powerful leadership, -cultivation of a spirit of diligence, self-help and cooperation, -modernization of human brain power, and -establishment of a scientific and well planned economic policy and strong enforcement of this policy. Our country, Korea, has attained brilliant economic development in the past 15 years under the strong leadership of president Park Chung Hee. However, there are still many problems to be solved. A few of them are: -housing and home problems, -increasing demand for employment, -increasing demand for staple food and -the need to improve international balance of payment. Solution of the above mentioned problems requires step by step scientific development of each sector and region of our contry. As a spearhead project in regional development, the Saemaul Campaign or new village movement can be cited. The campaign is now spreading throughout the country like a grass fire. However, such campaigns need considerable encouragement and support and the means for the desired development must be provided if the regional and sectoral development program is to sucdceed. The construction of large multipurpose dams in major river basin plays significant role in all aspects of national, regional and sectoral development. It ensures that the water resource, for which there is no substitute, is retained and utilized for irrigation of agricultural areas, production of power for industry, provision of water for domestic and industrial uses and control of river water. Water is the very essence of life and we must conserve and utilize what we have for the betterment of our peoples and their heir. The regional and social impact of construction of a large dam is enormous. It is intended to, and does, dras tically improve the "without-project" socio-economic conditions. A good example of this is the Soyanggang multipurpose dam. This project will significantly contribute to our national strength by utilizing the stored water for the benefit of human life and relief of flood and drought damages. Annual average precipitation in Korea is 1160mm, a comparatively abundant amount. The catchment areas of the Han River, Keum River, and Youngsan River are $62,755\textrm{km}^2$, accounting for 64% of the national total. Approximately 62% of the national population inhabits in this area, and 67% of the national gross product comes from the area. The annual population growth rate of the country is currently estimated at 1.7%, and every year the population growth in urban area increases at a rising rate. The population of Seoul, Pusan, and Taegu, the three major cities in Korea, is equal to one third of our national total. According to the census conducted on October 1, 1975, the population in the urban areas has increased by 384,000, whereas that in rural areas has decreased by 59,000,000 in the past five years. The composition of population between urban and rural areas varied from 41%~59% in 1959 to 48%~52% in 1975. To mitigate this treand towards concentration of population in urban areas, employment opportunities must be provided in regional and rural areas. However, heavy and chemical industries, which mitigate production and employment problems at the same time, must have abundant water and energy. Also increase in staple food production cannot be attained without water. At this point in time, when water demand is rapidly growing, it is essential for the country to provide as much a reservoir capacity as possible to capture the monsoon rainfall, which concentarated in the rainy seaon from June to Septesmber, and conserve the water for year round use. The floods, which at one time we called "the devil" have now become a source of immense benefit to Korea. Let me explain the topographic condition in Korea. In northern and eastern areas we have high mountains and rugged country. Our rivers originate in these mountains and flow in a general southerly or westerly direction throught ancient plains. These plains were formed by progressive deposition of sediments from the mountains and provide our country with large areas of fertile land, emminently suited to settlement and irrigated agricultural development. It is, therefore, quite natural that these areas should become the polar point for our regional development program. Hower, we are fortunate in that we have an additional area or areas, which can be used for agricultural production and settlement of our peoples, particularly those peoples who may be displaced by the formation of our reservoirs. I am speaking of the tidelands along the western and southern coasts. The other day the Ministry of Agriculture and Fishery informed the public of a tideland reclamation of which 400,000 hectares will be used for growing rice as part of our national food self-sufficiency programme. Now, again, we arrive at the need for water, as without it we cannot realize this ambitious programme. And again we need those dams to provide it. As I mentioned before, dams not only provide us with essential water for agriculture, domestic and industrial use, but provide us with electrical energy, as it is generally extremely economical to use the water being release for the former purposes to drive turbines and generators. At the present time we have 13 hydro-electric power plants with an installed capacity of 711,000 kilowatts equal to 16% of our national total. There are about 110 potential dams ites in the country, which could yield about 2,300,000 kilowatts of hydro-electric power. There are about 54 sites suitable for pumped storage which could produce a further 38,600,000 kilowatts of power. All available if we carefully develop our water resources. To summarize, water resource development is essential to the regional development program and the welfare of our people, it must proceed hand-in-hand with other aspects of regional development such as land impovement, high way extension, development of our forests, erosion control, and develop ment of heavy and chemical industries. Through the successful implementation of such an integrated regional development program, we can look forward to a period of national strength, and due recognition of our country by the worlds societies.

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