• 제목/요약/키워드: confidence probability

검색결과 314건 처리시간 0.031초

자살 사고와 자살 시도가 있거나 없는 개인의 자살 보도에 대한 태도 연구 (A Study of Attitudes Toward Suicide Report among Individuals with and without Suicidal Thoughts and Suicide Attempts)

  • 고경남;이상욱;박종익
    • 생물정신의학
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2020
  • Objectives The purpose of this study is to investigate the interest level, perception and attitude of suicide high-risk group toward the media's suicide report, and also to provide the fundamental data in order to strengthen both the standard and the recommendation of media coverage in Korea. Methods We analyzed the data from the 2013 The Korea National Suicide Survey. The study included 1500 participants aged between 19 and 75 years. The participants were selected through the regional multi-layer stratification method using the sampling frame of the 2010 Census. One-on-one face-to-face interviews investigated the interest level, opinions, and attitudes toward suicide reports and collected data on past suicide history and demographic data. The collected data were evaluated using multiple logistic regression analysis. A probability level of p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results The suicide high risk groups with histories of suicidal ideations or attempts showed more interest in suicidal reports [suicidal thought odds ratio (OR) = 1.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.40-2.34 ; suicidal attempt OR = 3.21, 95% Cl = 1.52-6.78]. However, there was no difference among the groups in thought that suicide reports incite suicide (suicidal thought OR = 1.26, 95% Cl = 0.92-1.73 ; suicidal attempt OR = 0.96, 95% Cl = 0.44-2.09). The suicide high risk groups showed a positive attitude toward suicide reports, but it was not statistically significant (suicidal thought OR = 1.10, 95% Cl = 0.41-2.92 ; suicidal attempt OR = 1.10, 95% Cl = 0.76-1.59). Conclusions We suggest the need of careful attitude of media suicidal reports not to bring about copycat suicides. and also we offer suicide prevention campaign based on media leverage.

도시철도 지하구조물 압축강도와 반발경도의 상관관계에 관한 연구 (A Study on Correlation between Compressive Strength and Rebound Hardness of Urban Underground Structures)

  • 최정열;이수재;정지승
    • 문화기술의 융합
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    • 제6권4호
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    • pp.655-661
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    • 2020
  • 본 연구에서는 도시철도 지하구조물을 대상으로 동일위치에서의 콘크리트 코어채취 압축강도와 비파괴시험 반발경도를 측정하여 반발경도 범위별 추정식을 도출하고 반발경도 구간별 실측 콘크리트 코어강도와의 비교를 통해 범위에 따른 추정 압축강도의 적정성을 확인하였다. 연구결과, 가우시안 확률밀도 함수를 이용하여 산출한 반발경도 범위별 평균 압축강도의 선형회귀분석 결과(대표 압축강도 추정식)와 반발경도 범위별 추정식은 실측 콘크리트 코어압축강도 실험결과와 약 3% 이내로 잘 일치하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 반발경도 범위별 압축강도 추정결과는 추정 압축강도의 오차를 줄이고 높은 신뢰수준을 확보할 수 있을 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서 본 연구에서 제안한 반발경도 측정결과를 이용한 확률적 통계분석결과는 추정식에 따라 상대적으로 편차가 크게 나타나는 반발경도와 콘크리트 압축강도간의 상관관계의 신뢰수준을 확보하는 데에 도움이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

감사의견(監査意見)의 추이요인(推移要因)에 관한 연구(硏究) (A Study on Transition Factor of Audit Opinion)

  • 정연해
    • 경영과정보연구
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    • 제7권
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    • pp.141-168
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    • 2001
  • The causes that the transparency of Korean accounting information was rated low, a short supply of faithful and transparent accounting information from the limitation of external audit environment must be pointed out. Purpose of the external audit is a expression of the auditors about that financial statements an enterprise made public were appropriately drew up in accordance with the corporate accounting principles from important point of view. Analysis of the audit opinion and so fourth according to 6,541 individual audit reports and introduced to the bill securities forward committee as a subject of external audit according to the raw of corporation external audit show that considerable change to the contents of audit report. This show as it is that uncertainty of future that is now being faced by our enterprise, because corporation which present audit reports since 1997 because of enterprise dishonor and contents of existence probability as a continued enterprise following to general economic crisis after 1998 occupy important position in special matters of audit report. Also, increase in special matters is due to application of the corporate accounting principles revised on December 11, 1998. In 1999, audit opinion under limitation(limitation, incongruity and rejecting opinion) increased greatly according to existence doubt as a continued enterprise, and this is the consequence of strengthening audit to the continues enterprise because of limited enterprise dishonor according to the stagnancy of business activities after 1997. Now financial supervisory service put in effect electromagnetic public announcement system about a project report of listed corporation (including an audit report) keeping pace with a documentary public announcement system as first phase since 1999 and expand to the unlisted corporation from 2000. As electromagnetic public announcement of public announcement documents including audit documents of external audit subject get a duty, approach of external user to the accounting information will be easier. Fixation of this system will make deep and wide analysis to the audit opinion, and this will draw up a plan to reconsider confidence of accounting information.

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The Attributable Risk of Smoking on All-Cause Mortality in Korean: A Study Using KNHANES IV-VI (2007-2015) with Mortality Data

  • Park, Young Sik;Park, Sangshin;Lee, Chang-Hoon
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • 제83권4호
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    • pp.268-275
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    • 2020
  • Background: It is not evident that the attributable risk of smoking on mortality in Korea has decreased. We investigated the impact of smoking on all-cause mortality and estimated the attributable risk of smoking in Korean adults. Methods: Those aged ≥20 years with smoking history in the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES) 2007-2015 were enrolled. We categorized the participants into three groups as follows: never smoker, <20 pack-years (PY) smokers, and ≥20 PY smokers. We applied inverse probability weighting using propensity scores to control various confounders between the groups. All-cause mortality risks were compared between the groups using the Kaplan-Meier log-rank test. The effects of smoking-attributable risks (ARs) on mortality were also calculated. Results: A total of 50,458 participants were included. Among them, 19,334 (38.3%) were smokers and 31,124 (61.7%) were never smokers. Those with a smoking history of 20 PY or more (≥20 PY smokers), those with a smoking history of less than 20 PY (<20 PY smokers), and never smokers were 18.1%, 20.2%, and 61.7%, respectively, of the study population. Smokers had a higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to never smokers (log-rank test p<0.01). The ARs of smoking were 21.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.7%-37.9%) and 9.0% (95% CI, 6.1%-12.0%) in males and females, respectively. ARs decreased from 24.2% to 19.5% in males and from 9.5% to 4.1% in females between 2007-2010 and 2011-2015. Conclusion: Our study using KNHANES IV-VI data demonstrated that smoking increased the risk of all-cause mortality in a dose-response manner and the ARs of smoking on mortality were 21.8% in males and 9.0% in females during 2007-2015. This suggests that the ARs of smoking on mortality have decreased since around 2010.

Postoperative Radiotherapy Improves Survival in Gastric Signet-Ring Cell Carcinoma: a SEER Database Analysis

  • Wei, Feng;Lyu, Hongwei;Wang, Shuoer;Chu, Yan;Chen, Fengyuan
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.393-407
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: To identify the potential therapeutic role of postoperative radiotherapy (RT) in patients with locally advanced (stage II and stage III) gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (SRC). Materials and methods: Patients with locally advanced gastric SRC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database between 2004 and 2012 were included in our study. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional models were performed, and survival curves were generated to evaluate the prognostic effect of postoperative RT and surgery alone on SRC patients. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to avoid selection bias among the study cohorts. Results: We found that patients with postoperative RT had better probability of survival compared with those who did not receive RT (overall survival [OS], P<0.001; cancer-specific survival [CSS], P<0.001). After PSM, analysis of both overall and CSS showed that patients who underwent postoperative RT had better prognosis than those receiving surgery alone in the matched cohort (OS, P=0.00079; CSS, P=0.0036). Multivariate Cox proportional model indicated that postoperative RT had better effect on prognosis compared with surgery alone with respect to both overall (hazard ratio [HR], 0.716; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.590-0.87; P=0.001) and CSS (HR, 0.713; 95% CI, 0.570-0.890; P=0.003). Conclusions: Postoperative RT had better prognosis compared with surgery alone for both overall and CSS for patients with locally advanced gastric SRC.

Information Systems in Project Management of The Public Sphere

  • Mamatova, Tetiana;Chykarenko, Iryna;Chykarenko, Oleksii;Kravtsova, Тetiana;Kravtsov, Olеg
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • 제21권8호
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    • pp.141-148
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    • 2021
  • Project management is a current trend of management in the public sphere, based on different principles, methods and tools. The tools include information technologies providing control over time, cost, quality and planning process in order to ensure accountability to interested parties. The goal of the research was to examine the impact of the integration of information systems in project management of the public sphere on the quality of public governance and administration using the example of infrastructure projects involving the private sector in developing countries. The methodology of the research is based on the concepts of "digital-era governance" (DEG), "Information governance" and "project governance" to determine the effectiveness of information systems and technologies in the management of infrastructure projects in the public sphere. The data from the countries with Lower middle income (India, Indonesia, Philippines, Ukraine, Vietnam) and Upper middle income (Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Romania, Russian Federation, Thailand, Turkey) for 1996-2020 were used to study the effects of DEG. The results show two main trends in the countries with Lower middle income and Upper middle income. The first trend is the development of digital governance, the concept of "digital-era governance" through information systems and performance measurement of the governance system, forecasting of investment flows of infrastructure projects, measurement of payback and effectiveness parameters for investment management in the public sector, decision support. The second trend is the existence of systemic challenges related to corruption, social and institutional factors through the development of democracy in developing countries and the integration of NPM similar to developed countries. The confidence of interested parties, especially private investors, in public authorities is determined by other factors - the level of return on investment, risks and assignment of responsibility, probability of successful completion of the project. These data still remain limited for a wide range of project participants, including citizens.

Relationship between Progressive Changes in Lamina Cribrosa Depth and Deterioration of Visual Field Loss in Glaucomatous Eyes

  • Kim, You Na;Shin, Joong Won;Sung, Kyung Rim
    • Korean Journal of Ophthalmology
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    • 제32권6호
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    • pp.470-477
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: To investigate the relationship between the progression of visual field (VF) loss and changes in lamina cribrosa depth (LCD) as determined by spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) enhanced depth imaging in patients with primary open angle glaucoma (POAG). Methods: Data from 60 POAG patients (mean follow-up, $3.5{\pm}0.7$ years) were included in this retrospective study. The LCD was measured in the optic disc image using SD-OCT enhanced depth imaging scanning at each visit. Change in the LCD was considered to either 'increase' or 'decrease' when the differences between baseline and the latest two consecutive follow-up visits were greater than the corresponding reproducibility coefficient value ($23.08{\mu}m$, as determined in a preliminary reproducibility study). All participants were divided into three groups: increased LCD (ILCD), decreased LCD (DLCD), and no LCD change (NLCD). The Early Manifest Glaucoma Trial criteria were used to define VF deterioration. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox's proportional hazard models were performed to explore the relationship between VF progression and LCD change. Results: Of the 60 eyes examined, 35.0% (21 eyes), 28.3% (17 eyes), and 36.7% (22 eyes) were classified as the ILCD, DLCD, and NLCD groups, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a greater cumulative probability of VF progression in the ILCD group than in the NLCD (p < 0.001) or DLCD groups (p = 0.018). Increased LCD was identified as the only risk factor for VF progression in the Cox proportional hazard models (hazard ratio, 1.008; 95% confidence interval, 1.000 to 1.015; p = 0.047). Conclusions: Increased LCD was associated with a greater possibility of VF progression. The quantitative measurement of LCD changes, determined by SD-OCT, is a potential biomarker for the prediction of VF deterioration in patients with POAG.

강원 지역의 장기 겨울철 강수 및 강설 변화의 경향 분석 (Long-term Changes in Wintertime Precipitation and Snowfall over Gangwon Province)

  • 백희정;안광득;주상원;김윤재
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.109-123
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    • 2017
  • The effects of recent climate change on hydrological systems could affect the Winter Olympic Games (WOG) because the event is dependent on suitable snow and ice conditions to support elite-level competitions. We investigate the long-term variability and change in winter total precipitation (P), snowfall water equivalent (SFE), and ratios of SFE to P during the period 1973/74~2015/16 in Gangwon province. The climatological percentages of SFE relative to winter total precipitation were 71%, 28%, and 44% in Daegwallyeong, Chuncheon, and Gangneung, respectively. The winter total P, SFE, and SFE/P has decreased (but not significantly), although significant increases of winter maximum and minimum temperature were detected at a 95% confidence level. Notably, a significant negative trend of SFE/P at Daegwallyeong in February, the month of the WOG, was attributable to a larger decrease in SFE related to the increases in maximum and minimum temperature. Winter wet-day minimum temperatures were warmer than climatological minimum temperatures averaged over the study period. The 20-year return values of daily maximum P and SFE decreased in Yongdong area. Since the SFE/P decrease with increasing temperature, the probability of rainfall rather than snowfall can increase if global warming continues.

Criticality effect according to axial burnup profiles in PWR burnup credit analysis

  • Kim, Kiyoung;Hong, Junhee
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제51권6호
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    • pp.1708-1714
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of the critical evaluation of the spent fuel pool (SFP) is to verify that the maximum effective multiplication factor ($K_{eff}$) is less than the critical safety limit at 100% stored condition of the spent fuel with the maximum reactivity. At nuclear power plants, the storage standard of spent fuel, ie, the loading curve, is established to prevent criticality from being generated in SFP. Here, the loading curve refers to a graph showing the minimum discharged burnup versus the initial enrichment of spent fuel. Recently, US NRC proposed the new critical safety assessment guideline (DSS-ISG-2010-01, Revision 0) of PWR SFPs and most of utilities in US is following it. Of course, the licensed criterion of the maximum effective multiplication factor of SFP remains unchanged and it should be less than 0.95 from the 95% probability and the 95% confidence level. However, the new guideline is including the new evaluation methodologies like the application of the axial burnup profile, the validation of depletion and criticality code, and trend analysis. Among the new evaluation methodologies, the most important factor that affects $K_{eff}$ is the axial burnup profile of spent fuel. US NRC recommends to consider the axial burnup profiles presented in NUREG-6801 in criticality analysis. In this paper, criticality effect was evaluated considering three profiles, respectively: i) Axial burnup profiles presented in NUREG-6801. ii) Representative PWR axial burnup profile. iii) Uniform axial burnup profile. As the result, the case applying the axial burnup profiles presented in NUREG-6801 showed the highest $K_{eff}$ among three cases. Therefore, we need to introduce a new methodology because it can be issued if the axial burnup profiles presented in NUREG/CR-6801 are applied to the domestic nuclear power plants without any other consideration.

Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value of cardiac symptoms assessed by emergency medical services providers in the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction: a multi-center observational study

  • Park, Jeong Ho;Moon, Sung Woo;Kim, Tae Yun;Ro, Young Sun;Cha, Won Chul;Kim, Yu Jin;Shin, Sang Do
    • Clinical and Experimental Emergency Medicine
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    • 제5권4호
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    • pp.264-271
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    • 2018
  • Objective For patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), symptoms assessed by emergency medical services (EMS) providers have a critical role in prehospital treatment decisions. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of EMS provider-assessed cardiac symptoms of AMI. Methods Patients transported by EMS to 4 study hospitals from 2008 to 2012 were included. Using EMS and administrative emergency department databases, patients were stratified according to the presence of EMS-assessed cardiac symptoms and emergency department diagnosis of AMI. Cardiac symptoms were defined as chest pain, dyspnea, palpitations, and syncope. Disproportionate stratified sampling was used, and medical records of sampled patients were reviewed to identify an actual diagnosis of AMI. Using inverse probability weighting, verification bias-corrected diagnostic performance was estimated. Results Overall, 92,353 patients were enrolled in the study. Of these, 13,971 (15.1%) complained of cardiac symptoms to EMS providers. A total of 775 patients were sampled for hospital record review. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of EMS provider-assessed cardiac symptoms for the final diagnosis of AMI was 73.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 70.8 to 75.7), 85.3% (95% CI, 85.3 to 85.4), 3.9% (95% CI, 3.6 to 4.2), and 99.7% (95% CI, 99.7 to 99.8), respectively. Conclusion We found that EMS provider-assessed cardiac symptoms had moderate sensitivity and high specificity for diagnosis of AMI. EMS policymakers can use these data to evaluate the pertinence of specific prehospital treatment of AMI.