• Title/Summary/Keyword: confidence probability

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Discriminative validity of the timed up and go test for community ambulation in persons with chronic stroke

  • An, Seung Heon;Park, Dae-Sung;Lim, Ji Young
    • Physical Therapy Rehabilitation Science
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.176-181
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    • 2017
  • Objective: The timed up and go (TUG) test is method used to determine the functional mobility of persons with stroke. Its reliability, validity, reaction rate, fall prediction, and psychological characteristics concerning ambulation ability have been validated. However, the relationship between TUG performance and community ambulation ability is unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the TUG performance time could indicate community ambulation levels (CAL) differentially in persons with chronic stroke. Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: Eighty-seven stroke patients had participated in this study. Based on the self-reporting survey results on the difficulties experienced when walking outdoors, the subjects were divided into the independent community ambulation (ICA) group (n=35) and the dependent community ambulation group (n=52). Based on the area under the curve (AUC), the discrimination validity of the TUG performance time was calculated for classifying CAL. The Binomial Logistic Regression Model was utilized to produce the likelihood ratio of selected TUG cut-off values for the distinguishing of community ambulation ability. Results: The selected TUG cut-off values and the area under the curve were <14.87 seconds (AUC=0.871, 95% confidence interval=0.797-0.945), representing a mid-level accuracy. Concerning the likelihood ratio of the selected TUG cut-off value, it was found that the group with TUG performance times shorter than 14.87 seconds showed a 2.889 times higher probability of ICA than those with a TUG score of 14.87 seconds or longer (p<0.05). Conclusions: The TUG can be viewed as an assessment tool that is capable of classifying CAL.

Accelerated Life Test Using Structural Analysis of a Helicopter Accumulator (헬기용 축압기의 구조해석에 의한 가속 수명시험)

  • Lee, Geon-Hui;Hur, Jang-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.67-72
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    • 2020
  • Life tests are essential in reducing the catastrophic damage caused by the accidents of large machinery such as aircraft and ships. However, life tests are challenging to implement due to the high costs and time required to test the life of large machinery parts. Therefore, it is advantageous and convenient to apply accelerated life test techniques for key components to reduce costs and time. In fact, extensive research has already been conducted on these techniques. However, recently, there have been cases in which an experimental value was applied to the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution used in the reliability test, but the test time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, in this paper, the shape parameters are estimated from the probability density function of the Weibull distribution for the analysis of an accelerated life test for bladder accumulators, which are core components of military helicopters. The test time was derived based on the number of samples and confidence level by substituting it into the test time equation. Next, the accelerated life test time was calculated using the steady-state test time with an acceleration factor obtained from the Arrhenius model. The steady-state life test required approximately 15,000 H, whereas the accelerated life test time for one sample at 100 ℃ was 34% shorter than that of the steady-state life test.

Socioeconomic Mortality Inequalities in Korea Labor & Income Panel Study (사회경제적 사망률 불평등 : 한국노동패널 조사의 추적 결과)

  • Khang Young-Ho;Lee Sang-Il;Lee Moo-Song;Jo Min-Woo
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2004
  • This study is to examine relationships of several socioeconomic position indicators with mortality risk in a nationwide longitudinal study of South Korea. The Korea Labor & Income Panel Study, conducted on a probability sample of urban South Korean households by Korea Labor Institute, contains date of death information for the decedents which were used to estimate relative risks of mortality and their $95\%$ confidence intervals (CI) with Cox regression analysis. A total of 125 men and women among 8,415 subjects died between 1998 and 2002. Socioeconomic differentials in mortality were observed after adjustment for sex and age. Those with less than 12-year education had 1.90 times $(95\%\;CI=1.25-2.91)$ greater mortality risk than those with 12-year education or more. Greater mortality risks were also found among those with low occupational class and manual occupation. The magnitude of differentials in mortality risks between occupational class were similar in two different approaches to measuring women's occupational class: (1) approach 1 where women, married or not, retain their own occupational class, and (2) approach 2 where married women are assigned their husbands' occupational class. Relative risks of dying among those with low household Income were 1.62 $(95\%\; CI=1.08-2.42)$ compared with the counterparts. Those who reported economic hardship at the time of survey in 1998 had greater risk of mortality $(RR=1.83,\;95\%\;CI=1.21-2.78)$ than those who did not. In conclusion, increased social discourse and policy discussions about these health inequalities are needed in Korean society. Future studies should explore the causes and mechanisms of socioeconomic mortality inequalities.

External Validation of a Clinical Scoring System for Hematuria

  • Lee, Seung Bae;Kim, Hyung Suk;Kim, Myong;Ku, Ja Hyeon
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.16
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    • pp.6819-6822
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    • 2014
  • Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of a new scoring system in Korean patients with hematuria at high risk of bladder cancer. Materials and Methods: A total of 319 consecutive patients presenting with painless hematuria without a history of bladder cancer were analyzed, from the period of August 2012 to February 2014. All patients underwent clinical examination, and 22 patients with incomplete data were excluded from the final validation data set. The scoring system included four clinical parameters: age (${\geq}50$ = 2 vs. <50 =1), gender (male = 2 vs. female = 1), history of smoking (smoker/ex-smoker = 4 vs. non-smoker = 2) and nature of the hematuria (gross = 6 vs. microscopic = 2). Results: The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval) of the scoring system was 0.718 (0.655-0.777). The calibration plot demonstrated a slight underestimation of bladder cancer probability, but the model had reasonable calibration. Decision curve analysis revealed that the use of model was associated with net benefit gains over the treat-all strategy. The scoring system performed well across a wide range of threshold probabilities (15%-45%). Conclusions: The scoring system developed is a highly accurate predictive tool for patients with hematuria. Although further improvements are needed, utilization of this system may assist primary care physicians and other healthcare practitioners in determining a patient's risk of bladder cancer.

Severity-Adjusted Mortality Rates of Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery Using MedisGroups (MedisGroups를 이용한 관상동맥우회술의 중증도 보정사망률에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Young-Dae
    • Quality Improvement in Health Care
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.218-228
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    • 2000
  • Background : Among 'structure', 'process' and 'outcome' approaches, outcome evaluation is considered as the most direct and best approach to assess the quality of health care providers. Risk-adjustment is an essential method to compare outcome across providers. This study has aims to judge performance of hospitals by severity adjusted mortality rates of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Methods : Medical records of 584 patients who got the CABG surgery in 6 general hospitals during 1996 and 1997 were reviewed by trained nurses. The MedisGroups was used to quantify severity of patients. The predictive probability of death was calculated for each patient in the sample from a multivariate logistic regression model including the severity score, age and sex. For evaluation of hospital performance, we calculated ratio of observed number to expected number of deaths and z score [(observed number of deaths - expected number of deaths)/square root of the variance in the number of deaths], and compared observed mortality rate with confidence interval of adjusted mortality rate for each hospital. Results : The overall in-hospital mortality was 7.0%, ranged from 2.7% to 15.7% by hospital. After severity adjustment the mortality by hospital was from 2.7% to 10.7%. One hospital with poor performance was distinctly divided from others with good performance. Conclusion : In conclusion, severity-adjusted mortality rate of CABG surgery might be applied as an indicator for hospital performance evaluation in Korea. But more pilot studies and improvement of methodologies has to be done to use it as quality indicator.

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Role of Ultrasound in Characterization of Ovarian Masses

  • Hafeez, Saima;Sufian, Saira;Beg, Madiha;Hadi, Quratulain;Jamil, Yasir;Masroor, Imrana
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.603-606
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    • 2013
  • Background: Ovarian cancer is the second most common malignancy in Pakistani women, accounting for 4% of all cancers in the female population. The aim of this study was to determine sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and 95% confidence intervals for ultrasound in characterization of ovarian masses in patients presenting at public and private tertiary care hospitals in Karachi, Pakistan. Materials and Methods: We adopted a cross-sectional analytical study design to retrospectively collect data from January 2009-11 from medical records of two tertiary care hospitals. Using a non-probability purposive sampling technique, we recruited a sample of 86 women aged between 15 and 85 years fulfilling inclusion criteria with histopathologically proven ovarian masses presenting for an ultrasound examination in our radiology departments. Results: Our retrospective data depicted sensitivity and specificity of ultrasound to be 90.7%, 95%CI (0.77, 0.97) and 91.4%, 95%CI (0.76, 0.98) respectively. Positive predictive value was 93%, 95%CI (0.79, 0.98) and negative predictive value was 89%, 95%CI (0.73, 0.96). A total of 78 ovarian masses were detected, out of which 42 were malignant and 36 were benign. Conclusions: Results of our study further reinforce the conclusion that ultrasound should be used as an initial modality of choice in the workup of every woman suspected of having an ovarian mass. It not only results in decreasing the mortality but also avoids unnecessary surgical interventions.

Mortality from Stomach Cancer in Serbia, Excluding the Province of Kosovo, in the 1991-2009 Period

  • Ilic, Milena;Prodovic, Tanja;Milosavljevic, Zoran;Ljujic, Biljana
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.2067-2070
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    • 2013
  • Background/Aim: Stomach cancer is the second most common cause of death from all malignant tumors in the world (third in men, fifth in women), with a strong decreasing trend in most developed countries. The aim of this descriptive epidemiological study was to analyze mortality of stomach cancer in Serbia, excluding the Province of Kosovo, in the 1991-2009 period. Materials and Methods: In data analysis, we used mortality rates which were standardized directly using those of the world population as a standard. In order to analyze the mortality trend from stomach cancer, linear trend and regression analysis were used. Confidence intervals (CIs) for the average age-adjusted and age-specific mortality rates were assessed with 95% level of probability. Mortality data were derived from the data file of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Results: During the 1991-2009 period, a significant downward trend in mortality of stomach cancer was recorded in Serbia (y=9.78 - 0.13x, p=0.000; average annual percent change was -6.3 (95%CI, -7.8 to - 4.8). During the same period, a significant decrease in mortality trend was found both in male (y=14.13 - 0.20x; p=0.000; % change was -7.7 (95%CI, -10.9 to -4.5) and female populations (y=6.27 - 0.08x; p=0.000; % change was - 4.4 (95%CI, -5.3 to -3.6). Conclusion: Decreasing trends in mortality from stomach cancer in Serbia are similar to those in most developed countries.

ReliabIlity analysis of containment building subjected to earthquake load using response surface method

  • Lee, Seong Lo
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2006
  • The seismic safety of reinforced concrete containment building can be evaluated by probabilistic analysis considering randomness of earthquake, which is more rational than deterministic analysis. In the safety assessment of earthquake-resistant structures by the deterministic theory, it is not easy to consider the effects of random variables but the reliability theory and random vibration theory are useful to assess the seismic safety with considering random effects. The reliability assessment of reinforced concrete containment building subjected to earthquake load includes the structural analysis considering random variables such as load, resistance and analysis method, the definition of limit states and the reliability analysis. The reliability analysis procedure requires much time and labor and also needs to get the high confidence in results. In this study, random vibration analysis of containment building is performed with random variables as earthquake load, concrete compressive strength, modal damping ratio. The seismic responses of critical elements of structure are approximated at the most probable failure point by the response surface method. The response surface method helps to figure out the quantitative characteristics of structural response variability. And the limit state is defined as the failure surface of concrete under multi-axial stress, finally the limit state probability of failure can be obtained simply by first-order second moment method. The reliability analysis for the multiaxial strength limit state and the uniaxial strength limit state is performed and the results are compared with each other. This study concludes that the multiaxial failure criterion is a likely limit state to predict concrete failure strength under combined state of stresses and the reliability analysis results are compatible with the fact that the maximum compressive strength of concrete under biaxial compression state increases.

Statistical Analysis for Path Break-Up Time of Mobile Wireless Networks (이동 무선망의 경로 붕괴시간에 대한 통계적 분석)

  • Ahn, Hong-Young
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.113-118
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    • 2015
  • Mobile wireless networks have received a lot of attention as a future wireless network due to its rapid deployment without communication infrastructure. In these networks communication path between two arbitrary nodes break down because some links in the path are beyond transmission range($r_0$) due to the mobility of the nodes. The set of total path break down time(${\bigcup}T_i$), which is the union of path break down time of every node pair, can be a good measure of the connectivity of the dynamic mobile wireless network. In this paper we show that the distribution of the total path break down time can be approximated as a exponential probability density function and confirms it through experimental data. Statistical knowledge of break down time enables quantitative prediction of delay, packet loss between two nodes, thus provides confidence in the simulation results of mobile wireless networks.

A Method to Predict the Feasible Region of Geometric Centroid for Closed Hull Form Area Using Regression Analysis (회귀분석을 통한 선형 단면의 변환가능 중점영역 예측)

  • Nguyen, Si Bang;Nam, Jong-Ho;Lee, Minkyu
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.387-392
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    • 2017
  • There is a constant demand for hull variation related to ship design. Various input variables are generally given to achieve the objective functions assigned by each variation process. When dealing with geometric shapes accompanied by nonlinear operations during the variation process, vague relationships or uncertainties among input variables are commonly observed. Therefore, it is strongly recommended to identify those uncertainty factors in advance. A method to modify the shape of a closed hull form with a new area and a centroid had been introduced as a new process of hull variation. Since uncertainty between input variables still existed in the method, however, it was not easy for the user to enter the area and the corresponding centroid. To overcome this problem, a method is presented in this paper to provide the feasible region of centroids for a given area. By utilizing the concept and techniques used in the statistics such as the number of samples, probability, margin error, and level of confidence, this method generates the distribution of possible centroids along the regression curve. The result shows that the method helps the user to choose an appropriate input value following his or her design intention.