• Title/Summary/Keyword: completion date

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An Information-based Forecasting Model for Project Progress and Completion Using Bayesian Inference

  • Yoo, Wi-Sung;Hadipriono, Fabian C.
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.203-213
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    • 2007
  • In the past, several construction projects have exceeded their schedule resulting in financial losses to the owners; at present there are very few methods available to accurately forecast the completion date of a project. These nay be because of unforeseen outcomes that cannot be accounted for earlier and because of deficiency of proper tools to forecast completion date of said project. To overcome these difficulties, project managers may need a tool to predict the completion date at the early stage of project development. Bayesian Inference introduced in this paper is one such tool that can be employed to forecast project progress at all construction stages. Using this inference, project managers can combine an initially planned project progress (growth curve) with reported information from ongoing projects during the development, and in addition, dynamically revise this initial plan and quantify the uncertainty of completion date. This study introduces a theoretical model and proposes a mathematically information-based framework to forecast a project completion date that corresponds with the actual progress data and to monitor the modified uncertainties using Bayesian Inference.

Predicting Due Dates under Various Combinations of Scheduling Rules in a Wafer Fabrication Factory

  • Sha, D.Y.;Storch, Richard;Liu, Cheng-Hsiang
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.9-27
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    • 2003
  • In a wafer fabrication factory, the completion time of an order is affected by many factors related to the specifics of the order and the status of the system, so is difficult to predict precisely. The level of influence of each factor on the order completion time may also depend on the production system characteristics, such as the rules for releasing and dispatching. This paper presents a method to identify those factors that significantly impact upon the order completion time under various combinations of scheduling rules. Computer simulations and statistical analyses were used to develop effective due date assignment models for improving the due date related performances. The first step of this research was to select the releasing and dispatching rules from those that were cited so frequently in related wafer fabrication factory researches. Simulation and statistical analyses were combined to identify the critical factors for predicting order completion time under various combinations of scheduling rules. In each combination of scheduling rules, two efficient due date assignment models were established by using the regression method for accurately predicting the order due date. Two due date assignment models, called the significant factor prediction model (SFM) and the key factor prediction model (KFM), are proposed to empirically compare the due date assignment rules widely used in practice. The simulation results indicate that SFM and KFM are superior to the other due date assignment rules. The releasing rule, dispatching rule and due date assignment rule have significant impacts on the due date related performances, with larger improvements coming from due date assignment and dispatching rules than from releasing rules.

Problem of Guarantee System against Defect by Change Starting point of Defects Liability on the Management of Apartment Houses and Improvement (공동주택 하자담보책임 기산일 변화에 따른 하자보증제도의 문제점 및 개선방안)

  • Jeong, Yong-Ki;Lee, Tae-Hyeong;Kim, Ok-Kyue
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.278-279
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    • 2017
  • Result from Amendment of Apartment Houses Decree Customer Service, Recently, the starting point of Defects Liability changed "Criteria of Completion date" to "Delivery date to Divided property". Through the Law amended, There are some inconsistency between "Claim for repairing defects" and "Period of security deposit for repairing defects claim". If someone bought a house after Completion date, Purchasing period of "Claim to security deposit for repairing defects" lapsed without renewal. This research is to identify problems and solutions for improving the system.

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Application of Genetic Algorithms to a Job Scheduling Problem (작업 일정계획문제 해결을 위한 유전알고리듬의 응용)

  • ;;Lee, Chae Y.
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 1992
  • Parallel Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are developed to solve a single machine n-job scheduling problem which is to minimize the sum of absolute deviations of completion times from a common due date. (0, 1) binary scheme is employed to represent the n-job schedule. Two selection methods, best individual selection and simple selection are examined. The effect of crossover operator, due date adjustment mutation and due date adjustment reordering are discussed. The performance of the parallel genetic algorithm is illustrated with some example problems.

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Uniform Parallel Machine Scheduling (병렬기계에서의 스케쥴링에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dae-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.7-12
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    • 2006
  • This study considers the problem of scheduling jobs on uniform parallel machines with a common due date. The objective is to minimize the total absolute deviation of job completion times about the common due date. This problem is motivated by the fact that a certain phase of printed circuit board manufacturing is bottleneck and the processing speeds of parallel machines in this phase are uniformly different for all jobs. Optimal properties are proved and a simple polynomial time optimal algorithm is developed.

A Progress-based Expert System for Quantitative Assessments of Project Delay

  • Yoo, Wi Sung
    • Architectural research
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2008
  • Construction projects have frequently exceeded their schedule despite reliable estimates at the start of a project. This problem was attributed to unpredictable causes at the beginning and to shortage of proper tools to accurately predict project completion date. To supplement this difficulty, project managers need a comprehensive system that can be employed to monitor the progress of an ongoing project and to evaluate potential delay for achieving the goal on time. This paper proposed a progressive-based expert system for quantitative assessments of project delay at the early stages of the execution. Furthermore, the system is used to inspect the change of the uncertainty on completion date and its magnitude. The proposed expert system is helpful for furnishing project managers a warning signal as a project is going behind schedule and for tracking the changed uncertainty at a desired confidence level. The main objectives of this paper are to offer a new system to overcome the difficulties of conventional forecasting tools and to apply a construction project into the system to illustrate its effectiveness. This paper focuses on construction phase of project development and is intended for the use by project managers.

Common Due-Data Determination and Sequencing on Parallel Processors (병렬 기계에 있어서 공통 납기 결정과 일정 계획)

  • 오명진;이상도
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.14 no.23
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 1991
  • This paper considers scheduling a set of n-jobs on m-paraller identical processors in which all jobs have the common due date. The objective of the problem is to minimize the weighted mean absolute deviation of job completion times about such common due dates under the assumption that each job has a different weight. and to determine the optimal value of a common due date. We propose four heuristic solution methods based on several dominance conditions, and its solution procedure is illustrated with numerical examples. The Performance comparison is made among four heuristic scheduling procedures.

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The Effects of Transplanting Time and Meteorological Change to Variation of Phyllochron of Rice

  • Ku, Bon-Il;Choi, Min-Kyu;Kang, Shin-Ku;Lee, Kyung-Bo;Park, Hong-Kyu;Park, Tae-Seon;Ko, Jae-Kwon;Lee, Byun-Woo
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.259-267
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    • 2010
  • This study was performed at Rice and Winter Cereal Crops Department of NICS during 2007 and 2008 to investigate the characteristics of rice leaf emergence and to obtain basic data which can be used for rice growth simulation model by which we can forecast rice growth stage and heading date accurately under different cultivars, transplanting date, and climatic conditions. To confirm leaf emergence rate according to rice maturing ecotype, we surveyed the leaf emergence rate and heading date of Unkwangbyeo, Hwayoungbyeo and Nampyeongbyeo which are early maturing, medium maturing and medium-late maturing cultivars, respectively, according to seedling raising duration and transplanting time. When seedling duration was 15 days, the growth duration between transplanting time and completion of flag leaf emergence on main culm were 51.5~78.3 days in Unkwangbyeo, 55.3~87.9 days in Hwayoungbyeo and 58.4~98.4 days in Nampyeongbyeo, respectively. When seedling duration was 30 days, they were 50.1~75.5 days in Unkwangbyeo, 52.4~84.7 days in Hwayoungbyeo and 56.4~93.8 days in Nampyeongbyeo, respectively. As transplanting time delayed, the emerged leaf number after transplanting decreased in all rice cultivars. The cumulative temperature between transplanting time to completion of flag leaf elongation on main culm were $1,281^{\circ}C{\sim}1,650^{\circ}C$ in Unkwangbyeo, $1,344^{\circ}C{\sim}1,891^{\circ}C$ in Hwayoungbyeo and $1,454^{\circ}C{\sim}2,173^{\circ}C$ in Nampyeongbyeo, respectively. Leaf emergence rate on main culm were precisely represented by equation, y = $y_0$ + a / [1 + exp( - (x - $x_0$) / b)]^c, when we used daily mean temperature as variable.

The Effect of the Performance of Firefighting Construction Supervision Personnel on the Completion Inspection of Firefighting Facility Construction in Apartments (소방공사감리원의 업무수행능력이 아파트 소방시설공사의 완공검사에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Sang-Sig;Kong, Ha-Sung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2019
  • In this study, results of completion inspection are investigated according to the performance of the firefighting construction supervision personnel and according to the necessity of clean air supply in a performance test of the firefighting construction supervision personnel. The results of the completion inspection are measured and the causes of defects in the fire protection facilities after issuance of a completion inspection certificate are analyzed. The findings of this investigation can be used to minimize the risk of apartment fires and improve the performance of firefighting construction supervision personnel. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, the results of the completion inspection conducted by the firefighting construction supervision personnel varies according to particular occupation. The performance of fire facility supervisors from design companies and fire construction companies were significantly higher than the fire officers. Therefore, it is necessary to employ supervisors who have experience in supervising the construction of apartments, in order to improve the performance of fire construction supervision officers. Second, the analysis of the completion inspection results according to the necessity of a clean air supply for performance tests of firefighting construction supervision personnel showed that the necessity of a clean air supply was significantly higher for fire facility supervisors from design companies and fire construction companies than for the fire officers. In order to improve, the completion inspection should be carried out up until the completion date of the building. In addition, a system needs to be established to ensure that clients are not able to demand that a completion inspection certificate be issued on the construction completion date. Finally, it is found that defects of completion inspection after issuance of a completion inspection certificate affects the result of the completion inspection. The results of the completion inspections conducted by the fire facility supervisors from design companies and fire construction companies were affected significantly less by defects than that of the general contractors. Research shows that faults have occured in firefighting facilities after the issuance of a completion inspection certificate due to the client and the construction company demanding the issuance of the completion inspection certificate.

Optimal scheduling of multiproduct batch processes with various due date (다양한 납기일 형태에 따른 다제품 생산용 회분식 공정의 최적 생산계획)

  • 류준형
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.844-847
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, scheduling problem is dealt for the minimization of due date penalty for the customer order. Multiproduct batch processes have been dealt with for their suitability for high value added low volume products. Their scheduling problems take minimization of process operation for objective function, which is not enough to meet the customer satisfaction and the process efficiency simultaneously because of increasing requirement of fast adaptation for rapid changing market condition. So new target function has been suggested by other researches to meet two goals. Penalty function minimization is one of them. To present more precisely production scheduling, we develop new scheduling model with penalty function of earliness and tardiness We can find many real cases that penalty parameters are divergent by the difference between the completion time of operation and due date. That is to say, the penalty parameter values for the product change by the customer demand condition. If the order charges different value for due date, we can solve it with the due date period. The period means the time scope where penalty parameter value is 0. If we make use of the due date period, the optimal sequence of our model is not always same with that of fixed due date point. And if every product have due date period, due date of them are overlapped which needs optimization for the maximum profit and minimum penalty. Due date period extension can be enlarged to makespan minimization if every product has the same abundant due date period and same penalty parameter. We solve this new scheduling model by simulated annealing method. We also develop the program, which can calculate the optimal sequence and display the Gantt chart showing the unit progress and time allocation only with processing data.

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